james16 Chart Thread

ante scriptum - turns out I've wrote a novel - if you skip it, you won't miss much


1.602 reached

left abit for 1.582, though meh... Anyway - it's a volatile pair. It has a hefty spread. It's not very exact(obviously, mainly noise from cable, but also from e/g, especially now at end of month - it's a legend bundesbank changes changes the UK european contribution at end of month - probably a legend, but ppl. believe in it, so it's kinda self fulfilling). With that volatility and spread, doesn't pay off to drop halfway, if you ask me.

Couple of days ago I was short 1.6375 - 1.623(was planning on 1.6205, but seeing it doesn't break 1.6215, closed, manually - was lucky to be on). Tried long 1.619, didn't get filled(again, lowest was at 1.6216 or so). Then tried 1.638 short, didn't get filled again - top was 1.635x. Tried 1.619 long, got filled, broke below. Waited for retest, dropped the long, opened the short for 1.602.

Ok, it's a matter of taste too - had sl at 1.597 when opened the long at 1.619. Even ignoring my lack of appetite for sl, in general it's pretty hard to have sl on gbp/cad, gbp/aud - with spread, with noise from cable, etc. Ok, seldom I get the sl hit, but naturally I want to win good pips when opening since... ugh, when sl really gets hit, well, it costs big time. When it closed below 1.619 on hourly, after - 1st hour bounce back little, 2nd hour lower low, 3rd hour close below - pic 2(and at close below I try to exit at be). Tried to close almost at be - was obviously it goes below, especially looking at cable which gave way to 1.644(closed at 1.6184 - to leave room for spread - well, turned out it was 1.6195 the top, but better safe) and open short @1.619(so, case I'm wrong again, to have a chance of closing almost at be) for 1.602.

But at least ~150-170 pips(to leave room for spread and such) for such a pair as target. And very conservative entries, even if you miss 80% of them if you want to close at be when it goes against you. Otherwise... 15 pips loss here, 10 there, it'll add up fast. And if you play with tight sl - you'll be hit alot due to noise.

Normally now would've try long at 1.6, but was already long on gbp/aud and short on cad/jpy - would've been too much correlation so left abit hoping for 1.58(kinda wasted money, but meh). Plus didn't exactly understood this afternoon and I don't like gbp one bit.

But - gbp is weak - that spike @1.635 on gbp/usd was when BoE minutes showed a change from 7:2 to 9:0 against interest rate increase and a hefty increase in jobless claims(pic 3). Yet the spike lasted for under 30 mins.(last time it was a switch in interest rate votes from 6:3 to 7:2, pound dropped more then 1%, for comparison). Next day turns out HP has to change 10bln USD in gbp(probably they didn't even change them all, but since everyone was expecting to...). Apparently what was needed to change, was changed, so now gbp/usd should go down below 1.62-1.625 and even more(makes me wonder why I'm long gbp/aud, but hey, 50% fibo is 50% fibo and 1.555 seems important on weekly so... keepin' it tight and hope for the best).

Bigger expectations on gbp crosses imho - otherwise with what you give on spread and on small losses, it'll be hard. And conservatives entries - wait for spike above what'd be the normal level so when you move at be the sl, you can be pretty protected. It'll miss many good entries, but those caught will be even better usually plus you'll be able to close at be case it goes against you.

See pic #4 - don't go short at 1.644 - go short at 1.647. You'll miss two move(yellow - tough luck, either stress, or less entries - 40% miss). But the bonus is brown - you go short at 1.647, you're wrong, yet you close at be on retest(anyway that was gung ho - was pissed since I missed the previous tp while correctly anticipating the news - shouldn't ever short again after such a small time inbetween and with it obviously wanting to go higher ignoring the bad news). If you went short 1.644, ugh, tough luck, tops you could've hope to close was 1.647 still losing 30+ pips. Plus, it's more relaxing - price hits, bounces in 30 mins, everything is nice and lacking stress. Plus, after it breaks below 1.644 you can set sl at be and you'll be partially protected by 1.644.

Naturally, when you buy afterwards, you buy at 1.644, not at 1.647.

Gbp/aud today is also a good example - you have daily low at 1.6164, you have 50 fibo 1.5574, you have weekly support ~1.555. Now, temptation would be to open at 1.557 so you don't miss the move. But at 1.557, gbp/usd was at 1.633. Now... nothing happens at 1.633 on cable, so waiting you can get gbp/aud @1.5555 when cable was closing to 1.625(a known support, not 1.633 which is... nowhere). Plus, when you move sl at be, you can hope to be protected by the 50% fibo at 1.557 which makes it easier to let the transaction run(that is again a matter of taste - I take 1st profit after I move sl to be, so sl being protected by something is even more important).

sorry for rambling, hope wasn't totally off(I know my explanations are awful...)

p.s - http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/63007201 it's long and rather biased politically(or not, fact is it's correct on data). Was posted yesterday on ZH.

I have a few questions on these trades I took. First is on the bearish bar: It was a big bar at BRN 1.05 and closed below the PPZ. It broke the bar by 8 pips then reversed.
Q1: How far do you usually put your order under a daily bar? Also, What do you think about the chart/bar?

the second bar is the I7B. It appears to be in traffic, and still a bit big. I also like these to be enclosed in the previous 2 or more bars, but this one's only inside the previous bar. Q2:Thoughts on this bar?

Hey PT

THe first bar isn't really a trade signal as per j16 it's just a bearish bar. With that said if it was a bar, for me daily buffers as we call them I tend to use in the 12-20 range depending on the pair(not counting spread).

bar 2 is more interesting to me but were still playing in a very tight range(boxing) and the trouble areas are near. Not the ideal are for a "breakout" that we like to see on inside bars

Hope this helps
Mike

absolutely stunning and sexy looking pinbar on 4hr chart for usdcad, right off the 0.98 area and flew straight back above the upwards trend line, i like it

Hi All,

just trying out on file attachment. Anyone knows how do I set signature?

I've searched at profile but to no avail.

Please enlighten !

Thanks

Hey Kel

Go to your profile(click your username at top of screen) then on left you will see link for signature

http://www.forexfactory.com/profile....=editsignature

Best
Mike

So, if the spread on the pair was 3 pips on the Eur/usd, You might use a 15 pip buffer?
also, thanks for the help

Dear Mike,

thanks for your reply. It shows up that I'm not permitted to have a signature. One noobish question about PB, assuming price close at 1760 in XAU/USD Daily Chart, is it technically right for me to say "a pin bar has bounce off at Fib 50" ?

Regards

Kel

yep bingo

so my buffers look like this(just in a general sense)

1hr timeframe - 5-10
4hr tf - 10-15
daily - 12-20
weekly 15-30

Best
Mike

anybody out there not trading this D1-pinbar? if so, please identify yourself to the crew :-)

Hey Kel

Ah yeah you probably have to wait till you have like 6 or 7 posts then you are no longer a "new" member and get regular privileges. A few more charts and you will be there

It's close to the 50 just missed mine, but many would probably say it's close enough. Since it just represents a % retrace number

Best
Mike

me, as the spread on oanda for this is 75

Hey Dean,

It's very tight on my platform and i'm on Oanda aswell.

great pin bar, i probably will trade it, The only thing I dont like about it is the size of the pin bar in relation to the previous huge bearish bar.

a few hours to the close of the daily bar so would be interested to here others views on this.

Hey Mike

Alright, I see. Wanna make a clarification on EMA,

1) the EMA that James mostly use is 365 EMA?

2) and if it is so, is it apply to the close?

Sorry to sound noobish, I just want to be sure.

Kel

just to calirfy, whats the symbol im looking for, and if possible can u pop a screenshot of your gold spread on oanda here thank you, so i can see if im looking at the right thing

Hey Kel

Ask whatever you need

Yep it's the 365 ema on the close

Best
Mike

ah i think i get it now, gold is 1/1 leverage on oanda isnt it, so the minimum i can trade is $1 a pip, but with my risk percentage i cant trade at $1 a pip, so think i will have to miss this good looking gold trade

I am looking to trade the gold pinbar as well but there a couple of things that bother me about it and I would appreciate some feedback. The first thing is the two strong bearish bar that precede the pinbar and the second is the huge outside bearish engulfing on the weekly.

At the same time how often do you get a PA signal to go long on gold after a retracement

XAU/USD M1 chart Spread 0.75