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  • #21
  • Sep 20, 2005 1:25am Sep 20, 2005 1:25am
Hi Merlin,

I was surprised that your seminal piece of work only rated 3 replies.

I thought it could do with a lift back to the top, given today's announcement.

The cloud of uncertainty over this month's decision has certainly dampened the markets the last few days; FWIW my money is on a further .25% rate hike.

All will be revealed by that other financial wizard later today!!

Regards,
Mike
  • #22
  • Sep 20, 2005 3:09am Sep 20, 2005 3:09am
Quoting mfsloane
Hi Merlin,

I was surprised that your seminal piece of work only rated 3 replies.

I thought it could do with a lift back to the top, given today's announcement.

The cloud of uncertainty over this month's decision has certainly dampened the markets the last few days; FWIW my money is on a further .25% rate hike.

All will be revealed by that other financial wizard later today!!

Regards,
Mike
haha!

man i havent been this excited for a fed meeting in a LONG time! i am pretty solid that rates will raise another quarter point (and the market agrees, as fed fund futures are showing almost a 100% chance of a .25 raise). however, im not so sure we are going to hear the "measured pace" in the statement after the meeting. as you see from my matrix, i think that this phrase is critical to the market's reaction. if the MP is in there, the dollar should strenghten quite a bit. if not, i think its gunna fall hard. im actually playing an options spread right now, betting there will be volatility by buying a straddle.

oh boy, only 9 hours to go, i can hardly contain myself!
Relax and be happy.
  • #23
  • Sep 20, 2005 1:37pm Sep 20, 2005 1:37pm
well greenie held strong! good man

the statement looked hawkish though.
Relax and be happy.
  • #24
  • Sep 20, 2005 3:53pm Sep 20, 2005 3:53pm
Quoting merlin
well greenie held strong! good man

the statement looked hawkish though.
hows your options play going?
  • #25
  • Sep 20, 2005 5:43pm Sep 20, 2005 5:43pm
Quoting Isotonic
hows your options play going?
not good, didnt get quite the volatility i expected
Relax and be happy.
  • #26
  • Sep 20, 2005 5:46pm Sep 20, 2005 5:46pm
ok, the green circle below indicates the actual situation that took place (MP was in speech, and the economy is "steady").

i predicted that if we came to this point, bonds, equities, the dollar and housing would all remain flat. that is basically what happened, all except the housing part. housing took a big ass dive today.
Attached Image
Relax and be happy.
  • #27
  • Sep 20, 2005 6:31pm Sep 20, 2005 6:31pm
Where can I find this housing chart dive?
  • #28
  • Sep 20, 2005 7:10pm Sep 20, 2005 7:10pm
i was looking at the major housing stocks.
Relax and be happy.
  • #29
  • Sep 24, 2005 10:03pm Sep 24, 2005 10:03pm
man, what the hell is goin on in the bond market?!?!?

the fed comes out raising rates AND they had the "measured pace" paragraph in the statement...bonds immediately take a dive. before i even finished celebrating, they bounced back up, higher than they were in the past four days! i dont get this. friday bonds slipped back down after a pinbar on thursday (see jim, i am learning).

its been a rocky ride with this trade. im still confident in it though. i need to see the 114 level hit again by the end of the month though.
Attached Image
Relax and be happy.
  • #30
  • Sep 25, 2005 12:41pm Sep 25, 2005 12:41pm
Quoting merlin
man, what the hell is goin on in the bond market?!?!?

the fed comes out raising rates AND they had the "measured pace" paragraph in the statement...bonds immediately take a dive. before i even finished celebrating, they bounced back up, higher than they were in the past four days! i dont get this. friday bonds slipped back down after a pinbar on thursday (see jim, i am learning).

its been a rocky ride with this trade. im still confident in it though. i need to see the 114 level hit again by the end of the month though.
To the Wizard Merlin, my personal observations have showed me time and time again that TA will beat FA and news. Does that mean I work in a vacumn and ignore the fundamentals and news? No, in fact I am very aware of fundamentals and news as they can disrupt prices in the short term. I have seen too many times where the news or the fundamentals will say the price should go one way. And the TA will tell me the price should go the other way. I hope I don't sound like I am preaching, especially to you who I admire and respect. However, my observations have helped me to become a very focused and disciplined trader who believes in what he sees technically.
Steven
  • #31
  • Sep 25, 2005 1:33pm Sep 25, 2005 1:33pm
hey merlin

i dont think greenspan cares about the housing boom.i think politicians only care about the loss of votes if there are repossessions
that is there own peoples fault for getting into too much debt and the banks fault for lending them too much money.factors beyond the feds control.the fed instigated it by printing too much money
our main aim is to tarck the trend NOT OTHER PEOPLES MISTAKES
we will go with the flow
  • #32
  • Sep 26, 2005 3:31am Sep 26, 2005 3:31am
Quoting merlin
man, what the hell is goin on in the bond market?!?!?

the fed comes out raising rates AND they had the "measured pace" paragraph in the statement...bonds immediately take a dive. before i even finished celebrating, they bounced back up, higher than they were in the past four days! i dont get this. friday bonds slipped back down after a pinbar on thursday (see jim, i am learning).

its been a rocky ride with this trade. im still confident in it though. i need to see the 114 level hit again by the end of the month though.
It is clear that the rate increase was discounted earlier in the price action, that's exactly what you did with oil, buy the rumor, sell the news, or short the rumor, cover the news

Thanks,

Nader
  • #33
  • Sep 27, 2005 5:42am Sep 27, 2005 5:42am
Quoting narafa
that's exactly what you did with oil, buy the rumor, sell the news, or short the rumor, cover the news
well, i see what you are saying, but i didnt really think this was a "rumor" kind of situation. it was a long term development that was fairly well forcasted by most of the market, and there was no signficant drop in bonds before it started going back north (which would ellude that people were liquidating shorts on the drop) the price action just felt strange.

anyway, i have the feeling that TODAY is the day that the bond market breaks. call me crazy.
Relax and be happy.
  • #34
  • Sep 27, 2005 2:23pm Sep 27, 2005 2:23pm
well that "feeling" i had must have been indigestion because we are flat after greenspan speech. the speech scared me a bit, as he started talking about letting bubbles take care of themselves. could that mean he is going to stop trying to solve the housing bubble? he could have been talking about oil, i hope he was. cause as ive made clear, i think this whole tightening cycle is about the housing bubble, and if he lets housing "take care of itself" that could mean a pause in rates. i could just be paranoid though
Relax and be happy.
  • #35
  • Sep 27, 2005 3:14pm Sep 27, 2005 3:14pm
Quoting Isotonic
btw it looks like there was a near retest of 114 today but no break!
sure, rub salt in my wounds

sweet graph!
Relax and be happy.
  • #36
  • Oct 3, 2005 4:41pm Oct 3, 2005 4:41pm
30yr closed below 114 last week. if the weekly close stays below then that would also be bullish for the US economy.

a firm break of the up channel would be very good news...could it happen @ NFP..?
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  • #37
  • Oct 3, 2005 5:01pm Oct 3, 2005 5:01pm
i think you could be right screaming from the roof tops that the US economy is set for lift off!

first 30yr breaks on the daily and now the short dollar is dropping like a stone!

i'll take a quick peek at the russ & s&p tomorrow...i keep saying this but for those that are a bit slow:

THE RUSSELL 2000 HAS FULLY RETRACED THE BEAR MARKET FROM 2000/03...WAKE UP PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!
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  • #38
  • Oct 4, 2005 5:08am Oct 4, 2005 5:08am
ahh yes! you know im loving this iso

she is breaking now, i feel gravity pulling hard now!

when i entered in august, this is where i thought the market was. i was 60 days too early.

i bet pimco aint long bonds no more
Relax and be happy.
  • #39
  • Oct 4, 2005 5:11am Oct 4, 2005 5:11am
Quoting Isotonic
THE RUSSELL 2000 HAS FULLY RETRACED THE BEAR MARKET FROM 2000/03...WAKE UP PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!
LOL!!!

yeeeeeah boy!

who was the gang that all agreed two months ago that the US was in a bull market?!? we've been calling some nice shots lately
Relax and be happy.
  • #40
  • Oct 4, 2005 5:13am Oct 4, 2005 5:13am
Quoting merlin
i need to see the 114 level hit again by the end of the month though.
funny, this happened on the last day of the month, just as i needed it to
Relax and be happy.
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