"Always bet on black"
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Quoting abobtraderDislikedI haven't had a chance to look at back-posts yet but its interesting that we are sharing a similar view. The gold-USD correlation of late has broken down recently, and the divergence had me thinking that either the USD was wrong or gold was wrong, or neither were wrong and the correlation has come apart as correlations sometimes do. For now, I am taking the view the dislocation is coming from gold market specific factors. Initially I had the spike in gold and other commodities down as a sign of impending inflation but this view is tempered by the fact that break-even inflation rates have not moved sharply higher. Of course, the gold mkt may know something nobody else is picking up on and is leading the rest of the mkts but for the time being I'm happy being positioned the other way.
As a side note long-term short EUR-SEK positions may start being interesting soon. I hope to do a little investigation over the coming week. Its basically an idea that the Riksbank have been factoring in a stronger SEK but it has depreciated quite a bit. The e.rate depreciation inturn may fuel cbk concern of imported inflation. At the same time, the market hasn't latched on to the rising rates story but Sweden will surely follow in the ECB's footsteps.The Riksbank Q4 Inflation Report is due at the back end of the week. Oh, and EUR/SEK has a low correlation with EUR/USD which is nice.Ignored
Quoting abobtraderDislikedThat does make it interesting. The most imporant thing is when it was published...does it have a time stamp on it?
Even if it was somewhat of a trigger for the move, coinciding with the home sales data, I think there is more value in assessing why the mkt moved so much and what this means more generally, as opposed to focussing on the reason for the move in the first place.....this sounds counterintuitive..it is getting late here...I am tired!
PS - It isn't a Medley report is it? I know Marketwatch have good insight in the ECB but they are not a think tank.
*scratches head and has his night cap*
: )Ignored
QuoteDislikedi will be pressing "F5" twenty times per second on the fed website, just like every other fundie trader out there
Quoting abobtraderDislikedIf the language is changed, at least Bernanke can start off on a clean slate.Ignored