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  • #2,541
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:14pm Aug 24, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting needpips
I have a S/D ?....when the chart has bands of "congestion" thicker and thinner ones of course....how do u gauge the move typically...do you take the counter trade if that band has yet to be tested due to the fact the area serves as a barrier.....see attached
Excellant question...

When is it real support and when is it just a band of congestion?

Reaction.

That's as simple as it gets.

These areas can be seen on any time frame, so the question is should we assume the counter?

My answer...Nope.

Check the chart from today, and the one I posted previously HERE.


IF you traded towards the breakout zone, it is a place to exit longs, portion or all and wait for a break of this zone...

Assuming direction or speculating tops and bottoms is a great way to crush your account.

In this situation, you could assume the trade, short side and set a stop loss at daily roll. Would that pay? Time will be the teller. We have gone negative on the day with a support range just below, or @ LOD....

Summer session can be a crazy shit show for trading and finding direction as well as profit for me is easier on the fast time frames. What should you do? Study the breakouts and trade direction, same as always.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #2,542
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:15pm Aug 24, 2011 3:15pm
damn this referee is a joker..
  • #2,543
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:17pm Aug 24, 2011 3:17pm
Yip, the new busby babes will sort yee out Archie

Quoting FibbinArchie
nice goal from walcott, 3-1 on agg..

we're away to you on sunday...
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #2,544
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:18pm Aug 24, 2011 3:18pm
great response...(seriously, compile your charts...print that shite....and publish ..... online publishing is a breeze)

Quoting Magix
Excellant question...

When is it real support and when is it just a band of congestion?

Reaction.

That's as simple as it gets.

These areas can be seen on any time frame, so the question is should we assume the counter?

My answer...Nope.

Check the chart from today, and the one I posted previously HERE.


IF you traded towards the breakout zone, it is a place to exit longs, portion or all and wait for a break of this zone...

Assuming direction or speculating tops...
  • #2,545
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:20pm Aug 24, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting Magix
Assuming direction or speculating tops and bottoms is a great way to crush your account.
Still having a hard time congesting this one. (Not from your words magix, but anyone who says don't try to catch tops and bottoms).

These offer the absolute best r/r points. Spread + some slippage, dependent on time frame. If in demand, target is then the next supply zone above.

Either I am completely missing something, or something else... not sure.
  • #2,546
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:21pm Aug 24, 2011 3:21pm
holy shit.... Ive been bowling too much... Look at all the pages of excitement I missed...
  • #2,547
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:21pm Aug 24, 2011 3:21pm
Quoting needpips
great response...(seriously, compile your charts...print that shite....and publish ..... online publishing is a breeze)
I would love to take credit, but all of this has been covered by Red's thread and the spins. Arch can post a boatload of videos on trading supply and demand by
Sam Seiden...these aren't my thoughts, they are very expensive lessons I have learned...

(PS, If I ever had an original thought, it would die of lonliness)

(PPS, I even stole my PS from somebody)
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #2,548
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:22pm Aug 24, 2011 3:22pm
Quoting pipper
Yip, the new busby babes will sort yee out Archie
lol, we'll see...
  • #2,549
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:24pm Aug 24, 2011 3:24pm
Great comment...this is what I have been rolling around....as far as R:R....the higher the R:R on smaller TF's, that correlate with larger ones, then the distance to the next "band" should be the optimum choice...

What I am trying to seperate is :R ratios that translate into Leverage....so that I can apply those directly to each trade....%ages can then be assigned and...well u see the rest


Quoting Venice
Still having a hard time congesting this one. (Not from your words magix, but anyone who says don't try to catch tops and bottoms).

These offer the absolute best r/r points. Spread + some slippage, dependent on time frame. If in demand, target is then the next supply zone above.

Either I am completely missing something, or something else... not sure.
  • #2,550
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:24pm Aug 24, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting Venice
Still having a hard time congesting this one. (Not from your words magix, but anyone who says don't try to catch tops and bottoms).

These offer the absolute best r/r points. Spread + some slippage, dependent on time frame. If in demand, target is then the next supply zone above.

Either I am completely missing something, or something else... not sure.
You trade the daily charts, and try to apply this information to the faster time frames. Which works well, application of data and direction from longs to shorts, or shorts to longs...

But...

Where are we?


Today's candle has a lower high then yesterday...but we are still long on the week...

IF you assume supply on candles, we haven't gotten a confirmation candle yet...not on the daily or any other TF, all we have is a minor supply zone, and will only be relevant if it isn't consumed.

Breaks, shakes, ducks and fakes...

Welcome to the Summer session Bitches!!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #2,551
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:29pm Aug 24, 2011 3:29pm
Euro Support...

Cross refrence the charts with EU/EJ...

EU traded bz down, EJ traded BZ up...

When will Euro find support?

IF you are short on the pairs, (EJ/EU), watch for jpy support to carry strength into the usd, might provide a safe exit and a wait for new entry...

I would post a chart, but I am outside, sunning myself and drinking beer...If I posted a chart, it might not even make as much sense as PCs.



(Yeah, cheap shot, read my signature)
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #2,552
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:31pm Aug 24, 2011 3:31pm
Quoting Magix

Breaks, shakes, ducks and fakes...

Welcome to the Summer session Bitches!!

yup... Till after Labor day, Jackson Hole, and all the lazy European bankers come back from vaca http://www.smiley-lol.com/smiley/mer/vil2_ile.gif and start throwin their weight around http://www.smiley-lol.com/smiley/spo...n/halteres.gif
  • #2,553
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:34pm Aug 24, 2011 3:34pm
Quoting Magix
You trade the daily charts, and try to apply this information to the faster time frames. Which works well, application of data and direction from longs to shorts, or shorts to longs...

But...

Where are we?


Today's candle has a lower high then yesterday...but we are still long on the week...

IF you assume supply on candles, we haven't gotten a confirmation candle yet...not on the daily or any other TF, all we have is a minor supply zone, and will only be relevant if it isn't consumed.

Breaks, shakes, ducks and fakes...

Welcome...
Yep, but this last month has forced me to buckle down and learn trading the 10m. Same rules, same style... just smaller targets.

But as it goes without saying... as a way that I look at the currently daily chart. We are in supply, with the 4444 being the cap.

Had I been paying attention, my sell would have been @ 4444. Factor in 30-50 pips of slip (not uncommon on the daily). Targets would be down to the bottom of the current demand zone (4322). The only thing that then invalidates this is a daily close above 4444. risking 30-50 pips for 130 (and that's only if slip did actually occur).

Biggest thing that has changed in my supply / demand trading, is the waiting for the confirmation candle. I'd rather risk a few pips and take the lick there, then have to wait for a confirmation candle... which can effectively, depending on the size of the confirmation candle, move my rr to 1:1 or even less based on the previous zones (because remember, a retest could always happen to the upside again before moving in the originally intended direction).

Or, as this month has been playing out, the confirmation candle ends up slamming right back into the target zone. Hence why we are getting so much bull/bear/bull/bear/bull/bear candle sets on the daily.

So, as my rules pertain and as the daily is looking. As long as we do not have a close above 4444, 4322 is the current target. Then to flip things around, 4323 is also a buy zone. It then just becomes a question of the close... (above or below).

Only thing I havn't quite got a hold on yet, which is probably a miss calculation of a level on my part. Where I'll see a close above the level, and immediately watch it reverse directions, revalidating the original setup. Fake out bars, as they were. What I see as a fake out bar may simply be a bad level on my part.

Edit: Or I need to stop thinking that the market is perfect.
  • #2,554
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:39pm Aug 24, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting Venice
Yep, but this last month has forced me to buckle down and learn trading the 10m. Same rules, same style... just smaller targets.
ALL time frames trade the same, only the range changes.

I have one set of META4 charts to not show wicks.

Let's see whatcha think bout that....
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #2,555
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:39pm Aug 24, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting Venice
Still having a hard time congesting this one. (Not from your words magix, but anyone who says don't try to catch tops and bottoms).

These offer the absolute best r/r points. Spread + some slippage, dependent on time frame. If in demand, target is then the next supply zone above.

Either I am completely missing something, or something else... not sure.
hi venice,

I read that a lot, and have a couple of thoughts on that.
1) it depends on your trading style... obviously SL can be ridiculously tight on those trades, if you find a possible bounce/reversal, compared to the reward. if you are wrong, you realize this very early on.
2) if you are beginning to trade, which you obviously aren't, it can be hard to do, and I even think, the classic approach of a swing-trade is the more appropriate in order to get a feeling for market rhythm

many people around here are avid breakout traders, which I simply cannot do on a regular basis. I prefer a reactional bounce over anything else... possibly because I was "raised" to that style of trading.
  • #2,556
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:41pm Aug 24, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting Magix
ALL time frames trade the same, only the range changes.

I have one set of META4 charts to not show wicks.

Let's see whatcha think bout that....
My levels are calculated wick-less. I use wicks for entry, but other then that, just noise. Faded on my charts to only slightly visible.
  • #2,557
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:41pm Aug 24, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting OldQuant
By the way, Sofia, I just went to play my daily "guess the hellish heat index" where I go outside, make a guess, then check to see (today, guessed low at 106; really 110).

Then looking further to what really matters, looks like Irene is going to miss FL completely; there's a chance it'll stay offshore the whole way to Canada. If you don't know of it, good hurricane tracking info here.
Hi OldQuant and thank you for posting website to track Irene ,are you in Florida too?
  • #2,558
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:43pm Aug 24, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting Venice
My levels are calculated wick-less. I use wicks for entry, but other then that, just noise. Faded on my charts to only slightly visible.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #2,559
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:46pm Aug 24, 2011 3:46pm
wow guys I took a nap and missed very interesting posts ,now have to go back to catch up )
  • #2,560
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:47pm Aug 24, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting Magix
ALL time frames trade the same, only the range changes.

I have one set of META4 charts to not show wicks.

Let's see whatcha think bout that....
Nicked that one too

Thing is... you're so fucking right!

Catch you laters Mango... enjoy the beer!
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