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The Really Useless Thread

  • #601
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:19pm Aug 22, 2011 12:19pm
Quoting sofia101
Except early morning on e/chf I did not trade today ,what a mess ,plus bad storm coming to Florida in next couple days ,maybe no internet
I bet it fizzles out...damn oil companies need an excuse to jack up oil....fackers
  • #602
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:20pm Aug 22, 2011 12:20pm
Quoting needpips
I bet it fizzles out...damn oil companies need an excuse to jack up oil....fackers
Will see ,in last 5 years I saw one ,that was pretty bad
  • #603
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:22pm Aug 22, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting sofia101
Will see ,in last 5 years I saw one ,that was pretty bad
every time I build a house one comes....I was building a house in 04 when we had 3....then in 08 we had 1.....Im not building a house....we are fine...
  • #604
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:24pm Aug 22, 2011 12:24pm
hey everyone... sorry I didnt get on last night... was hunkered down in my trading cave for the night... Using a new platform so it sort of had all my attention.

Anyways as a recap I missed the first move of the night. But the play on the extension long was a pretty str8 forward fib play with very predictable target. I actually was IMing with FX jawn and said this around when price was at 4410 intially
Jawn: a break
look at the order boook see what u would do if you had all the money
my thinking is a lil more up before we get pounded later....


WulfBurt: Id kill all those open shorts by running price up tew like 4430 or so to knock owt their st0ps then crush the market


jonathansonnier: see good ... thats what u should have said
reason is bc all the open shorts below...


Jawn: thx buddy
exactly... make sense to destroy them...
to suck up thier liquidity

Thanks for that Jawn... and Cloggies for the 4402... def have that number in my trading journal

So a good experience last night playing off the fibs and range patterns into the early AM... Had a target at 4367 to the short side that got picked up too...

Looking to see what the roll is for direction tommorow.

With Jackson Hole fundies are gonna be a major player this week. Sentiment is NOT killing the USD as much as I would expect and personally I dont feel like Bernanke is going to drop the QE3 bomb. Not now anyways and not without much worse performance in US markets across the board.



With Moodys and Beers from S&P talking about the inevitable default of Greece by years endthe bilateral collateral Eurozone agreements with the periphery nations being widely views as Euro negative I def gotta stay pretty damn bearish on this pair. A little longer term the 4155 area is def the "line in the sand" for a drop down to the 3700 imho... and we will most likely see it rather quickly. Bundesburg also just released a scathing article condemning the Eurozone's economic policy which is spot on IMHO (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...bail-outs.html)... I still see the rise of the 4th reich across Europe as in order to quell investor fears all decisions will ultimately have to be made by Berlin, and they have the leverage to make it happen due to the fact the fate of the EU is being strapped to their backs anyhow.

Another pair I am watching very carefully is the USDCHF... This sucker is at a very pivotal area.. I actually have some very good in depth reasons Ive been thinking of where we could retest Parity on that pair. Although my long term sentiment is definately bearish as the Eurozones problems continue to escalate

Anyhow, I think this is the most serious "trading post" Ive ever made on FF. But I wanted to put it in here cause this place is legit.

On that Note
Fuck the bastards

Wulf
  • #605
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:26pm Aug 22, 2011 12:26pm
Quoting attila
Still waiting for 4350. Stupid thing....
Isn't this annoying when they hit the breaks just before the correct area.

Of course, in doing so built me a new demand zone to play from. Currently long 4366 but already moved to be. It's so slow I don't even care.

Took me nearly 2 hours to grab the 4385 > 4366 play. bleh.
  • #606
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:29pm Aug 22, 2011 12:29pm
Quoting needpips
every time I build a house one comes....I was building a house in 04 when we had 3....then in 08 we had 1.....Im not building a house....we are fine...
Easy solution. Start building the house, over-hedge it long oil call options.
  • #607
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:31pm Aug 22, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting Venice
Isn't this annoying when they hit the breaks just before the correct area.

Of course, in doing so built me a new demand zone to play from. Currently long 4366 but already moved to be. It's so slow I don't even care.

Took me nearly 2 hours to grab the 4385 > 4366 play. bleh.
Very annoying, but it should still get there sometime. Maybe the brokers will move it after ny close. LOL.
  • #608
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:31pm Aug 22, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting OldQuant
Easy solution. Start building the house, over-hedge it long oil call options.
I was gonna say that, couldn't so eloquently..
  • #609
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:32pm Aug 22, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting Venice
Took me nearly 2 hours to grab the 4385 > 4366 play. bleh.
90 minutes left. I'd like to see the NY books or bots or whatever wakes up around now drift this down to the lows. Of course, I'm short, so I'm just talking my book with nothing behind it.
  • #610
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:33pm Aug 22, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting OldQuant
Easy solution. Start building the house, over-hedge it long oil call options.
I bought XOM 75 calls this morn actually
  • #611
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:42pm Aug 22, 2011 12:42pm
Quoting OldQuant
Well, two things. First, implied at the money option vol is "forward looking." BTW, the reason you know that the options market is really hip to fat tails is because the implied vol out of money is higher (called the "smile"). And those are Black Scholes (i.e., log normal) numbers. Second, if you use the so-called non-parametric measures of vol, then they are derived again, from what you should see in a normal.

Fat tails generally will appear at any time frame. So, since sqrt(time) is itself a normal probability scaling measure...
this is good. I am going to make an attempt to try it out. you can be sure I will ask you more questions
  • #612
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:44pm Aug 22, 2011 12:44pm
Quoting cloggie
Feck, they must be using Harry Potters invisibility cloak..
This reminds me: I've been meaning to ask, how does one make themselves "Invisible"?
  • #613
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:45pm Aug 22, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting OldQuant
This reminds me: I've been meaning to ask, how does one make themselves "Invisible"?
click on your profile, then on the left menu there will be User Controls

check invisible mode
  • #614
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:49pm Aug 22, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting darimik
this is good. I am going to make an attempt to try it out. you can be sure I will ask you more questions
Happy to try to help. Even happier if you show what you find...

And thanks for the invisibility tip.
  • #615
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:53pm Aug 22, 2011 12:53pm
Quoting OldQuant
90 minutes left. I'd like to see the NY books or bots or whatever wakes up around now drift this down to the lows. Of course, I'm short, so I'm just talking my book with nothing behind it.
Okay. Way to go, NY.
  • #616
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:58pm Aug 22, 2011 12:58pm
Quoting OldQuant
Okay. Way to go, NY.


Stopped, obviously...

Figured as much, was suppose to be a bounce play but never got my target.

Very wicky PA in that area.
  • #617
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:01pm Aug 22, 2011 1:01pm
Quoting attila
Very annoying, but it should still get there sometime. Maybe the brokers will move it after ny close. LOL.
LOl I am waiting for it too)at list @53 will see in Asia
  • #618
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:04pm Aug 22, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting Venice


Stopped, obviously...

Figured as much, was suppose to be a bounce play but never got my target.
The last 90 minutes of NY is very often quite persistent in direction and generally low volatility. I'm seriously thinking of having something simple slapped together with some fast emas or something, suspend the position logic, trade it from around 1500 to until about 1657, roll back into the position.
  • #619
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:09pm Aug 22, 2011 1:09pm
Eh, I'm talking too much. I think I'll go read the news.

Back later.
  • #620
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:11pm Aug 22, 2011 1:11pm
Quoting OldQuant
The last 90 minutes of NY is very often quite persistent in direction and generally low volatility. I'm seriously thinking of having something simple slapped together with some fast emas or something, suspend the position logic, trade it from around 1500 to until about 1657, roll back into the position.
Markets closing flat in most markets except oil and gold meaning tomorrow will have some better moves.... GL all trading overnight...done for the day.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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