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The Really Useless Thread

  • #561
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:38pm Aug 22, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting OldQuant
Oh, was it? Well, the low 60's in this handle have been pretty tough since last night, too.
thats a big 10-4...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart3.gif Size: 18 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #562
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:38pm Aug 22, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting cloggie
Cloggie does know how and when to plan his breaks......

Ah well, nothing to see.....




l8r.
Still nothing to see.

Am gonna hang at the eurotrash thread for a bit of entertainment....

l8r
  • #563
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:40pm Aug 22, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting cloggie
Still nothing to see.

Am gonna hang at the eurotrash thread for a bit of entertainment....

l8r
lol, enjoy...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #564
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:42pm Aug 22, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
thats a big 10-4...
Yeap mate. Rejection of H4 lows in play again on candle close. I am clearing all 1,437x except one small one trailed already a few ticks below your top green line. Price looks set for a close flat on Friday close +/- 1.439x.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #565
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:42pm Aug 22, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
well lets talk, because I have a few new ideas...need a smart guy to take a look at them, and well that guy aint me...
except you will be the one ending up teaching me
  • #566
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:43pm Aug 22, 2011 1:43pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
looks like 80% Globy...bastards...

http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bullet...ns_2011161.pdf
Your link says options. But if that straight futures as well, then there's only two words for it: *-ing muppets.
  • #567
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:49pm Aug 22, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting OldQuant
Your link says options. But if that straight futures as well, then there's only two words for it: *-ing muppets.
its got the futures right at the start...no?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #568
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:52pm Aug 22, 2011 1:52pm
Quoting sisse
Yeap mate. Rejection of H4 lows in play again on candle close. I am clearing all 1,437x except one small one trailed already a few ticks below your top green line. Price looks set for a close flat on Friday close +/- 1.439x.

sisse
yea looks like there are buyers in the base of that big candle also..dont know if that will prevent a drift to the lows, but rather lackluster trade either way...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #569
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:53pm Aug 22, 2011 1:53pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
lol, enjoy...
Feck'm, nobody is taking the bait, there is just some idiot demo trader there with 50 lots short on eu and 30 on GU.

Pretty sad when the muppets aren't even entertaining anymore.


Am calling it the night, we haven't moved in 3 hours and I got my orders in for the night.



l8r
  • #570
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:54pm Aug 22, 2011 1:54pm
Quoting OldQuant
Sure there is. In fact, it is probably the single most important metric of profitability from trend following strategies.

Nowdays, every market watches it. I just saw last week a chart of the frequency of +4 sigma moves in the S&P, historically. The only thing you need is a measure of volatility that is based in the (log-, perhaps) normal distribution. Implied volatility in the options market is one such. The so called high-efficiency, "non-parametric" vol estimators like the Garman-Klass are another. That gives you a, e.g., daily sigma...

would you only reduce it for the 'expected' volatility, not the one that is calculated after, since the hourly sigma value would be useless? I guess you are just eliminating the average moves, to get some sort of strength index?

this is the first time I am looking at it, so I might have a complete misunderstanding.
  • #571
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:54pm Aug 22, 2011 1:54pm
I'm going to go watch the E/U thread a little during lunch. Last time I looked, they were talking about the efficacy of phase-of-moon trading, and it was starting to look like rattyo and the panda guy were assuming the mantle of gurus. Lotta love it.
  • #572
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:55pm Aug 22, 2011 1:55pm
Quoting cloggie
Feck'm, nobody is taking the bait, there is just some idiot demo trader there with 50 lots short on eu and 30 on GU.

Pretty sad when the muppets aren't even entertaining anymore.


Am calling it the night, we haven't moved in 3 hours and I got my orders in for the night.



l8r
Later ) You know what is sad he is Russian ) I don't know why he is doing this posting ,sad
  • #573
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:56pm Aug 22, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting OldQuant
starting to look like rattyo and the panda guy were assuming the mantle of gurus. Lotta love it.

Feck, they must be using Harry Potters invisibility cloak.......talking about the deaf leading the blind....
  • #574
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:57pm Aug 22, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting sofia101
Later ) You know what is sad he is Russian ) I don't know why he is doing this posting ,sad

The idiot is 80 lots short on a mill dollar account, he won't last long.....
  • #575
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:57pm Aug 22, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting cloggie
Feck, they must be using Harry Potters invisibility cloak.......talking about the deaf leading the blind....
  • #576
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:58pm Aug 22, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
yea looks like there are buyers in the base of that big candle also..dont know if that will prevent a drift to the lows, but rather lackluster trade either way...
In my charts, TA is holding in the last hanger before a momentum move down and the good move can be triggered on the close/Tokyo which is a pain in the ass for us (European time traders).

BTW, crazy gold at 189x. If FED decide to let QE3 go this week, we'll see the unthinkable (a few weeks ago) $2000.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #577
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:58pm Aug 22, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting cloggie
The idiot is 80 lots short on a mill dollar account, he won't last long.....
Yes I know I feel sorry for him
  • #578
  • Aug 22, 2011 2:00pm Aug 22, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting cloggie
The idiot is 80 lots short on a mill dollar account, he won't last long.....
did you see the pic of that guy, looks a little like a vampire...yikes
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #579
  • Aug 22, 2011 2:00pm Aug 22, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting sisse
In my charts, TA is holding in the last hanger before a momentum move down and the good move can be triggered on the close/Tokyo which is a pain in the ass for us (European time traders).

BTW, crazy gold at 189x. If FED decide to let QE3 go this week, we'll see the unthinkable (a few weeks ago) $2000.

sisse
On twitter they are talking about surprise coming from FED
  • #580
  • Aug 22, 2011 2:01pm Aug 22, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting darimik
would you only reduce it for the 'expected' volatility, not the one that is calculated after, since the hourly sigma value would be useless? I guess you are just eliminating the average moves, to get some sort of strength index?

this is the first time I am looking at it, so I might have a complete misunderstanding.
Well, two things. First, implied at the money option vol is "forward looking." BTW, the reason you know that the options market is really hip to fat tails is because the implied vol out of money is higher (called the "smile"). And those are Black Scholes (i.e., log normal) numbers. Second, if you use the so-called non-parametric measures of vol, then they are derived again, from what you should see in a normal.

Fat tails generally will appear at any time frame. So, since sqrt(time) is itself a normal probability scaling measure if you start with one, you can measure moves in just about any time frame you want to, and it will carry a lot of the same information.

This is quick, but lunch is waiting. Happy to talk about it, though.
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