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AUD/USD

  • #32,581
  • Aug 22, 2011 11:11am Aug 22, 2011 11:11am
hi champs, nice pattern today, looks like it's in reverse mode, let's check the test. could hunt for 0480 ? maybe 0510_20 main target. goodluck 2 you.
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #32,582
  • Edited 11:23am Aug 22, 2011 11:18am | Edited 11:23am
Quoting VennD
........

4) US MBA Delinquency Rates (YoY) will be released by the Mortgage Bankers Assoc in abt 1hr from now / Income loss is associated to unemployment , significantly a factor in mortgage delinquency / Forecasted to decrease / 8.32% ---> 7.76% / I'd guess u know what will u do abt this minor data.
... but NOT always

... the table hs just turn upside down .. actual result increase = 8.44%

... Will wait at any rejected resistances to further shoot it down...
  • #32,583
  • Aug 22, 2011 11:25am Aug 22, 2011 11:25am
Quoting Shaggy_rock
hi champs, nice pattern today, looks like it's in reverse mode, let's check the test. could hunt for 0480 ? maybe 0510_20 main target. goodluck 2 you.
entered 0420, still tricky, sl 0408 (..)

Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #32,584
  • Aug 22, 2011 11:35am Aug 22, 2011 11:35am
Quoting Shaggy_rock
entered 0420, still tricky, sl 0408 (..)

stepped out for now, too many tops, i don't interfear the battle.
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #32,585
  • Aug 22, 2011 11:55am Aug 22, 2011 11:55am
Quoting XTrade
With you exactly on this. Just took profit from last nights run @ 90 pips.

Yet again BELOW> 1.0500

We need to take this area out to continue long. I am looking to buy the next dip in expectation of breach of 0500 - otherwise I will remain flat.

I am a bit surprised this pair is having so much trouble.


Ultimate target for now is higher at 0750
This is an intrest starved world. At some point, fund managers hungry for yeild will come to their senses and start buying again. It's almost Semptember, and there are those end of year results (and bonuses) to worry about. Once all this recession and Europe fear settles down, I will not be suprised if we make new highs before year's end.

Regards,
  • #32,586
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:20pm Aug 22, 2011 12:20pm
Quoting FX-Petra
This is an intrest starved world. At some point, fund managers hungry for yeild will come to their senses and start buying again. It's almost Semptember, and there are those end of year results (and bonuses) to worry about. Once all this recession and Europe fear settles down, I will not be suprised if we make new highs before year's end.

Regards,
That argument doesn't really make sense. Were fund managers hungry for yield back in 08 during the crash? I think we should let this bear side play out until proven otherwise. Fundamentally and technically, bears are in control for now.
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #32,587
  • Aug 22, 2011 12:39pm Aug 22, 2011 12:39pm
Short @ 445 / BE+1
  • #32,588
  • Aug 22, 2011 1:20pm Aug 22, 2011 1:20pm
Quoting RamsesII
That argument doesn't really make sense. Were fund managers hungry for yield back in 08 during the crash? I think we should let this bear side play out until proven otherwise. Fundamentally and technically, bears are in control for now.
If you are daytrading, I could not agree more. If you are swing trading from daily charts, prepared to hold a postions for weeks or months, this is a buying opportunity.... and a good one!

Regards,

ps. Intrest rate differentials are the single biggest and most reliable driver (over time) in forex.

pss. In '08 yeild was not so hard to find.
  • #32,589
  • Edited 3:35pm Aug 22, 2011 3:09pm | Edited 3:35pm
Quoting VennD
Short @ 445 / BE+1
Going to close @ 410.

edited: closed @ 417. (Other scalpers still maintain ... long 318 , short 597).

attached : AU 15m & 30m tfs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au15m_03.gif Size: 68 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au30m_01.gif Size: 64 KB
  • #32,590
  • Aug 22, 2011 3:16pm Aug 22, 2011 3:16pm
Trend to remain down. Best situation is for it to test the recent highs but the key is how it keeps the upsloping trendline intact.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 114 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #32,591
  • Edited 4:09pm Aug 22, 2011 3:57pm | Edited 4:09pm
1) 7hrs from now - China HSBC Manufacturing PMI. Any reading above 50 signals expansion , while a reading below 50 shows contraction. Previous was 49.3 .

2) RBNZ Inflation Expectations (YoY). High reading is bullish for NZD. AUD might get some share in there. Previous was 3.0%.

I better get some sleep now ... see all of you later .. take care ...

(STOPS probably @ 300-350 / 470-530).
  • #32,592
  • Aug 22, 2011 5:39pm Aug 22, 2011 5:39pm
AUD/USD @ 1.0395

1.0300-1.0500 contains for now

Break above 1.0450 saw stops but ran into sellers

Still fancy the downside to be tested and 1.0360 is the support then 1.0300

Market still edgey ..

Good day
  • #32,593
  • Aug 22, 2011 6:41pm Aug 22, 2011 6:41pm
Agree to the downside..

http://screencast.com/t/MwXIqZZ89UK
  • #32,594
  • Aug 22, 2011 9:41pm Aug 22, 2011 9:41pm
Quoting VennD
1) 7hrs from now - China HSBC Manufacturing PMI. Any reading above 50 signals expansion , while a reading below 50 shows contraction. Previous was 49.3 .

(STOPS probably @ 300-350 / 470-530).
Result = 49.8 ... still NOT good if below 50.0 however there's an addition of 0.5 , scalp long @ 394 / BE+1
  • #32,595
  • Aug 22, 2011 9:52pm Aug 22, 2011 9:52pm
still short from last night 1.0468. if this rally is denied a break above 1.044 we will head down once again.
  • #32,596
  • Aug 22, 2011 10:14pm Aug 22, 2011 10:14pm
Quoting Mitchoss
still short from last night 1.0468. if this rally is denied a break above 1.044 we will head down once again.
hello, you sell AUD. what is target for you in this position.
  • #32,597
  • Aug 22, 2011 10:14pm Aug 22, 2011 10:14pm
Massive buy,
triggered by awakening of fundamental gold correlation?

Only it seems to me aud has the same technical foundation of all current 3 majors.
  • #32,598
  • Aug 22, 2011 10:29pm Aug 22, 2011 10:29pm
depending how the DJ,SPI200 and S&P are react tonight in US session I will probably be looking for an exit around 1.031 for most of my position

I don't exactly expect it to hit that figure tonight, but I do expect these index's to fall off a cliff again, looks very much like a dead cat bounce and the financial worries of the world havn't solved themselfs.

Long gold/silver also.

Mitch

Quoting Pham
hello, you sell AUD. what is target for you in this position.
  • #32,599
  • Aug 22, 2011 10:32pm Aug 22, 2011 10:32pm
Quoting Mitchoss
depending how the DJ,SPI200 and S&P are react tonight in US session I will probably be looking for an exit around 1.031 for most of my position

I don't exactly expect it to hit that figure tonight, but I do expect these index's to fall off a cliff again, looks very much like a dead cat bounce and the financial worries of the world havn't solved themselfs.

Long gold/silver also.

Mitch
maybe the sell-off in US equily is still in love. I hope AUD will down to 1.0000 or lower in this month.
  • #32,600
  • Edited Aug 23, 2011 3:05am Aug 22, 2011 10:43pm | Edited Aug 23, 2011 3:05am
Quoting VennD
1) ...

2) RBNZ Inflation Expectations (YoY). High reading is bullish for NZD. AUD might get some share in there. Previous was 3.0%.

(STOPS probably @ 300-350 / 470-530).
RBNZ IE also, not so good ... actual result 2.9% , AU can't fly to the moon ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au15m_04.gif Size: 72 KB
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