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Romancing the Price

  • #721
  • Aug 20, 2011 6:17pm Aug 20, 2011 6:17pm
Orb mate,

sorry to have to tell you this, but after we cammed earlier, you didn't switch your webcam off.

Just thought I should let you know before you do it while someone less conscientious is around

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  • #722
  • Aug 20, 2011 6:38pm Aug 20, 2011 6:38pm
Kenny mate,

let me apologise for that tubesuphisownassbarelylatentlyhomo upstart trying to sully the reputation of your fine thread.

Now, back to trading. I've given two good clues already. What should happen next? (This isn't for you to answer, Ken. You'd already have a sell line at the very top of the chart!)

BTW, as a kid I never wanted a birthday party, in case nobody showed up. So I hope one or two more of you will give this a go, or there'll be no more parties for me in future
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  • #723
  • Aug 20, 2011 8:32pm Aug 20, 2011 8:32pm
Quoting Ifmyante
Kenny mate,

let me apologise for that tubesuphisownassbarelylatentlyhomo upstart trying to sully the reputation of your fine thread.

Now, back to trading. I've given two good clues already. What should happen next? (This isn't for you to answer, Ken. You'd already have a sell line at the very top of the chart!)

BTW, as a kid I never wanted a birthday party, in case nobody showed up. So I hope one or two more of you will give this a go, or there'll be no more parties for me in future
Currency and Time-frame Please ..
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  • #724
  • Aug 20, 2011 9:30pm Aug 20, 2011 9:30pm
Stupid jing. The downward slope TL is the one I like the most. The upward is for finding an area of resistance. The extraneous arrows are crap. Can't figure out how to delight something once I drop it on the picture.

I am glad I don't have to trade from this
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #725
  • Aug 20, 2011 9:47pm Aug 20, 2011 9:47pm
Quoting Ifmyante
Orb mate,

sorry to have to tell you this, but after we cammed earlier, you didn't switch your webcam off.

Just thought I should let you know before you do it while someone less conscientious is around

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HF-7NY0Id1I
dear god what the hell did i just watch
  • #726
  • Aug 20, 2011 9:56pm Aug 20, 2011 9:56pm
Quoting Ifmyante
So I hope one or two more of you will give this a go, or there'll be no more parties for me in future
It has to breakout soon. Given the line you have drawn and the down trend line I would anticipate a move down.

With my abilities I would wait and see, but it draws an area on the chart to pay close attention.

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Good Trading
  • #727
  • Aug 20, 2011 10:12pm Aug 20, 2011 10:12pm
Hi,
First move down and make some H@S pattern (red line)and from demand zone shot up,break Suply zone and where Res.become Support and move up find some sellers (Suply zone.)
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  • #728
  • Aug 20, 2011 10:55pm Aug 20, 2011 10:55pm
Depending on the higher time frame supply and demand dynamic, I'd be looking at PA in the blue and the red zones provided there was decent profit margin and quality PA.

For a long example, if this were an M5 chart and we were sitting above strong M30 demand, while the H4/H1 is making higher highs and there is at least 2x risk available the rejection of the red demand would make a nice entry.

If we were below supply on longer time frames I'd be looking for price action at the blue and red supply zones or I'd wait for a break of the blue or red demand zones and watch for a retest or new supply levels.
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  • #729
  • Aug 20, 2011 11:21pm Aug 20, 2011 11:21pm
Quoting frankkn
Depending on the higher time frame supply and demand dynamic, I'd be looking at PA in the blue and the red zones provided there was decent profit margin and quality PA.

For a long example, if this were an M5 chart and we were sitting above strong M30 demand, while the H4/H1 is making higher highs and there is at least 2x risk available the rejection of the red demand would make a nice entry.

If we were below supply on longer time frames I'd be looking for price action at the blue and red supply zones or I'd wait for a break of the blue or red...
To elaborate further on profit margin, here is an illustration. The first rejection bar (5 bars prior to current bar) would have offered less than 2x risk. I may have entered a reduced size here depending on the higher time frame supply and demand dynamic. The marked rejection would have offered just 2x.
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  • #730
  • Aug 20, 2011 11:32pm Aug 20, 2011 11:32pm
Quoting frankkn
To elaborate further on profit margin, here is an illustration. The first rejection bar (5 bars prior to current bar) would have offered less than 2x risk. I may have entered a reduced size here depending on the higher time frame supply and demand dynamic. The marked rejection would have offered just 2x.
Very interesting..I need to study some of your post

Cherrs!
  • #731
  • Aug 20, 2011 11:38pm Aug 20, 2011 11:38pm
Okay! I learned how to make a pic with my pc at any event and I need to definitely sharpen my S/D and have to start here some where.

I see a ascending wedge looking to brake to the downside after a clean brake of the LTL.... Somebody give me a lesson!

Thanks!
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  • #732
  • Aug 21, 2011 1:12am Aug 21, 2011 1:12am
Hey infy

cant attend the first exercise ..When i came to fix my charts for the coming week i saw your second exercise was still underway .

Ok this is what i think ...






Quoting Ifmyante
Here's another exercise:

Have a look at the chart and tell me what to expect.

The one who gets this right will show that trading profitably needs a set of different skills
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Trading is all about probability, low risk/high reward ,buy low/sell high
  • #733
  • Aug 21, 2011 3:25am Aug 21, 2011 3:25am
Quoting taomql4
Currency and Time-frame Please ..
I'd go long...
  • #734
  • Edited 4:15am Aug 21, 2011 3:55am | Edited 4:15am
Quoting Ifmyante
Kenny mate,

let me apologise for that tubesuphisownassbarelylatentlyhomo upstart trying to sully the reputation of your fine thread.

Now, back to trading. I've given two good clues already. What should happen next? (This isn't for you to answer, Ken. You'd already have a sell line at the very top of the chart!)

BTW, as a kid I never wanted a birthday party, in case nobody showed up. So I hope one or two more of you will give this a go, or there'll be no more parties for me in future
Ok folks, I'm constantly banging out the idea of looking at higher time frames. As Ifmyante hasn't supplied this, we do what the one eyed eagle Kenny does, and use our common sense, and just spy it from this one time frame.

A - Inset of higher time frame. We can summise that this is the basic pattern of price action on the higher time frame. This pattern is a bear flag and shown is its common characteristic of breaking down out of the flag in the direction of the trend (pole).
B - Confluence of upper channel boundary and downward sloping trendline from highs. Price drops nicely from here creating a supply zone.
C - Nice drop down which creates a supply level and confirms the general downward momentum.
D -Price reacts to this strong potential demand level. But, notice the response isn't strong at all, in fact we have a very weak upmove from the demand. The bounces along the upward sloping trendline are very close together, meaning demand is being absorbed and it is strugling to move up with any strong conviction. But up it must eventually go as large traders need to push it back up to supply area B where we had trendline and channel line confluence, our supply level.
E - is an interesting area as no doubt we will be getting amateurs entering here out of the triangle breakout. With the supply above this creates a bull trap. Its a trap because we have real supply up above where potential big orders are waiting and amateur long traders provide liquidity for sell orders.
F- We get a strong move down from F as expected from this level. As we move down we can be assured that demand has been exhausted due to the clues given on the move up to the supply level from that demand area.
G- However, we get a second move up from demand at D as price goes deeper into that level bringing with it more buyers. But, as we are in larger time frame move down and because demand has already demonstrated weakness from this level, coupled with the strength of the supply zone price has moved down from, we can expect the demand level not to hold and a continuation of the move down off the upward sloping trendline is imminent, as it now acts as resistance. So we go short here to add to our shorts from supply area F.
H- Picture of me drinking fine wines with lots of busty blond chicks on a yacht in sunny Bahamas (not shown), happy in the fact that I just followed my trading plan and not worrying about whether I am right or whether I am wrong.
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  • #735
  • Aug 21, 2011 4:31am Aug 21, 2011 4:31am
IMHO
(smilar rufus'..)
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  • #736
  • Edited 4:57am Aug 21, 2011 4:44am | Edited 4:57am
Quoting Porkpie
Ok folks, I'm constantly banging out the idea of looking at higher time frames. As Ifmyante hasn't supplied this, we do what the one eyed eagle Kenny does, and use our common sense, and just spy it from this one time frame.

A - Inset of higher time frame. We can summise that this is the basic pattern of price action on the higher time frame. This pattern is a bear flag and shown is its common characteristic of breaking down out of the flag in the direction of the trend (pole).
as we are in larger time frame move down and because demand...
Absolutely beautifully done, Porkpie

This certainly wasn't the clearest example of the BEFL I could find.

I've also added two other important things to look for in spotting the setup.



You're dead right about awareness of the HTF being vital. This was much easier to see in 4X TF. But as you demonstrated, with lots of chart time, you can get a great feel for slightly higher TFs from the TF you're in.



PS. Riko, your mini TL was another great confluence
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  • #737
  • Aug 21, 2011 4:52am Aug 21, 2011 4:52am
another look..
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  • #738
  • Aug 21, 2011 4:54am Aug 21, 2011 4:54am
oh sorry didnt see your last message
  • #739
  • Aug 21, 2011 5:01am Aug 21, 2011 5:01am
Quoting Ifmyante
Absolutely beautifully done, Porkpie

This certainly wasn't the clearest example of the BEFL I could find.

I've also added two other important things to look for in spotting the setup.



You're dead right about awareness of the HTF being vital. This was much easier to see in 4X TF. But as you demonstrated, with lots of chart time, you can get a great feel for slightly higher TFs from the TF you're in.



PS. Riko, your mini TL was another great confluence
thanks if ,
please keep these when you have time ..
  • #740
  • Aug 21, 2011 5:09am Aug 21, 2011 5:09am
Quoting riko2705
thanks if ,
please keep these when you have time ..
If you think they help, I'd be glad to

Let me beat this hangover first though
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