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  • #401
  • Mar 28, 2006 10:49pm Mar 28, 2006 10:49pm
Quoting smjones
Oops, I just realized I may be diluting the topic of this thread. That is not my intention. I am sorry.

SMJ
Tell us about the book, I got an advertisement on that book.

I think it is ok, to talk about this book, most of us just waiting for a grand reversal on the AudUsd or already took a loss. It did tank today like I had a small feeling it might from the FOMC excitement. My feeling is its going to go below .7000 then shoot up. Hedge funds and dealers "Red Baron Pilots" from my understanding love to gun the stops at the numbers that end with 00 and especialy 3 zeros 000. I picked this up from a persons book that used to work trading for a bank Chapter is called
"Fading the double zeros". Person now works at fxcm. For some reason humans like to set stops at numbers ending in 00, and the Banks and dealers know where they are. Book is a good well rounded book called, "Day Trading the Currency Market" The book has some really good stuff and history on each of the currency pairs. I read alot of books.

Still the Vegas stuff is the best I have seen and he should write a book someday.

So tell us about this book till the market heats up.
  • #402
  • Mar 29, 2006 3:22am Mar 29, 2006 3:22am
Quoting Swami S
Vinn, took a shot with small stop to minimise stress it got hit just having a look now again.....its punched the fib....it all seems a bit too Ausie to me. Their exports are rocking . As far as I can tell the whole world is unsure of itself lately.
50% rule went the wrong way today. I'm tempted to enter but for no good reason........
Well I was also tempted to enter a/u long for a second try, and I did. Got stopped out, this time with a loss Patience is a big virtue here...

Maybe us/cad will start to get interesting, when/if it reaches the 233 level...
  • #403
  • Mar 29, 2006 5:10am Mar 29, 2006 5:10am
Quoting JSC77
Well I was also tempted to enter a/u long for a second try, and I did. Got stopped out, this time with a loss Patience is a big virtue here...

Maybe us/cad will start to get interesting, when/if it reaches the 233 level...
SO, I took a short position for 3 lots yesterday after the news came out and liked what I was seeing on GBPUSD. So, instead of closing the trade, I converted it to a 4 Hour VWB short with the 3 fib limits. The reason I did this is because the 8 MA turned down giving a pretty good short signal and The Weekly Momentum indicator was showing weakness.

The trade is looking good at 51 pips, I am going to tighten my SL to a free trade, so I guess it is all good.

ps, I have noticed that the daily ROC 10 tracks the momentum direction just as well, with the following criteria: If the line is above zero it is an up trend and ok for long. If it is below zero a downtrend and ok for short.

SMJ
  • #404
  • Mar 29, 2006 5:22am Mar 29, 2006 5:22am
Quoting lambrechtj
Tell us about the book, I got an advertisement on that book.

I think it is ok, to talk about this book, most of us just waiting for a grand reversal on the AudUsd or already took a loss. It did tank today like I had a small feeling it might from the FOMC excitement. My feeling is its going to go below .7000 then shoot up. Hedge funds and dealers "Red Baron Pilots" from my understanding love to gun the stops at the numbers that end with 00 and especialy 3 zeros 000. I picked this up from a persons book that used to work trading for a bank Chapter is called
"Fading the double zeros". Person now works at fxcm. For some reason humans like to set stops at numbers ending in 00, and the Banks and dealers know where they are. Book is a good well rounded book called, "Day Trading the Currency Market" The book has some really good stuff and history on each of the currency pairs. I read alot of books.

Still the Vegas stuff is the best I have seen and he should write a book someday.

So tell us about this book till the market heats up.

Sorry about that, I have not been able to give up that sleep thing completely yet. The info you seek about this book is in a thread by HeavyJ Trading without a stoploss... It is covered there pretty well..

Happy reading and trading,
SMJ
  • #405
  • Mar 29, 2006 6:50am Mar 29, 2006 6:50am
This long downtrend of aud/usd reminds me of the story Vegas tells in one of his docs about a losing streak on the Roulette wheel and everyone took the contrarian side of the wheel instead of going with the trend...and everyone continued to lose.

That thing about the Vegas rule on not entering a trade until there is momentum on a reversed trend around the outer fib area is being proven once again by the long down trend in the aud/usd pair.
  • #406
  • Mar 29, 2006 7:27am Mar 29, 2006 7:27am
Quoting MrMajik
This long downtrend of aud/usd reminds me of the story Vegas tells in one of his docs about a losing streak on the Roulette wheel and everyone took the contrarian side of the wheel instead of going with the trend...and everyone continued to lose.

That thing about the Vegas rule on not entering a trade until there is momentum on a reversed trend around the outer fib area is being proven once again by the long down trend in the aud/usd pair.
Your right. This situation reminded me of that as well.

That story helped me think over my trades.. thats why I only traded this once. Next time I traded Im probably gonna wait for a 50 move first along with a reversal candlestick.. If its not the there I'm not trading.

I don't like the volatility of this currency and its not one of my favourites.
  • #407
  • Mar 29, 2006 7:58am Mar 29, 2006 7:58am
Quoting smjones
SO, I took a short position for 3 lots yesterday after the news came out and liked what I was seeing on GBPUSD. So, instead of closing the trade, I converted it to a 4 Hour VWB short with the 3 fib limits. The reason I did this is because the 8 MA turned down giving a pretty good short signal and The Weekly Momentum indicator was showing weakness.

The trade is looking good at 51 pips, I am going to tighten my SL to a free trade, so I guess it is all good.

ps, I have noticed that the daily ROC 10 tracks the momentum direction just as well, with the following criteria: If the line is above zero it is an up trend and ok for long. If it is below zero a downtrend and ok for short.

SMJ
Well now, the first Lot just closed at 144 pips at the first FIB number, 2 to go...

SMJ
  • #408
  • Mar 29, 2006 8:29am Mar 29, 2006 8:29am
Stopped out of Auzzie for the second time.. I think USD is very strong across the board after FOMC rate hike..I'll be more cautious for VWB entries against USD now.

Shan
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  • #409
  • Mar 29, 2006 8:36am Mar 29, 2006 8:36am
Quoting vishalshan
Stopped out of Auzzie for the second time.. I think USD is very strong across the board after FOMC rate hike..I'll be more cautious for VWB entries against USD now.

Shan
I very much like your study. My charts agree with it exactly and I do not use MT4. (maybe I should not have said that out loud) MT4 is very popular.

SMJ
  • #410
  • Mar 29, 2006 10:19am Mar 29, 2006 10:19am
Quoting vishalshan
Stopped out of Auzzie for the second time.. I think USD is very strong across the board after FOMC rate hike..I'll be more cautious for VWB entries against USD now.

Shan
Totally agree with your study. Also, Im starting to back-analyze VWB in very trending markets like what we've seen in AUDUSD lately and I am getting to the conclusion that it's better to stay away from this type of markets.

VWB seems to like ranging or mildly-trending setups better.
  • #411
  • Mar 29, 2006 10:27am Mar 29, 2006 10:27am
Quoting WTB
Totally agree with your study. Also, Im starting to back-analyze VWB in very trending markets like what we've seen in AUDUSD lately and I am getting to the conclusion that it's better to stay away from this type of markets.

VWB seems to like ranging or mildly-trending setups better.
I was just thinking about what you said about ranging markets and I was thinking maybe the reason is that if you are pulling your profits out in increments of Fib numbers. In a trending market you run out of bets on the table. It's kind of like Roulette When red is coming up and you have bet red and won, but do not replace your bet. At least as the trade pertains to the 4 Hour tunnel method. I have not traded live, the daily, but done very well with the 4 Hour.

I think you make a good point.

SMJ
  • #412
  • Mar 29, 2006 11:01am Mar 29, 2006 11:01am
Quoting Swami S
Vinn, took a shot with small stop to minimise stress it got hit just having a look now again.....its punched the fib....it all seems a bit too Ausie to me. Their exports are rocking . As far as I can tell the whole world is unsure of itself lately.
50% rule went the wrong way today. I'm tempted to enter but for no good reason........
The way it looks as of right now the Aud is forming another hammer for today confirming more support in the area of 7045 /30 . Got Stoped out of my original entry . As Vegas says if you get stoped out twice in the same position the pair is in a strong trend, I have a second chance @ this pair from wat I see on the daily it shuold happen any day Now !!!!
  • #413
  • Mar 29, 2006 11:11am Mar 29, 2006 11:11am
Quoting WTB
VWB seems to like ranging or mildly-trending setups better.
Nice point..HeavyJ did a good analysis of VWB and weekly trend and found a relation that if the weekly trend is too strong against the VWB entry, then we have more chances of VWB failure or price turning back at tunnel.

If we are getting a VWB entry in the direction of strong weekly trend, it is the best bet and deserves a full ride to the other end of the tunnel.

Bottom line is patience to wait for proper setup.

Shan
  • #414
  • Mar 29, 2006 11:12am Mar 29, 2006 11:12am
Quoting vishalshan
Stopped out of Auzzie for the second time.. I think USD is very strong across the board after FOMC rate hike..I'll be more cautious for VWB entries against USD now.

Shan
Hello Vishalshan:

I think you are wrong with CAD. This is the Vegas set up:
USD/CAD - Model #2.
You now have 3 fib lines on both sides of the tunnel [for a total of 6]. The fib numbers are calculated at 144, 233, and 377 from the daily tunnel.

Mx
  • #415
  • Mar 29, 2006 11:54am Mar 29, 2006 11:54am
Quoting Mx_Power
Hello Vishalshan:

I think you are wrong with CAD. This is the Vegas set up:
USD/CAD - Model #2.
You now have 3 fib lines on both sides of the tunnel [for a total of 6]. The fib numbers are calculated at 144, 233, and 377 from the daily tunnel.

Mx
Mx
If you look back in past posts you will see that Shan decided to use the Model #1 instead because he thought it was giving better results of late.

Jon
  • #416
  • Mar 29, 2006 1:16pm Mar 29, 2006 1:16pm
Quoting MrMajik
That thing about the Vegas rule on not entering a trade until there is momentum on a reversed trend around the outer fib area is being proven once again by the long down trend in the aud/usd pair.

This is something that I have noticed as well. There has been no "speed and momentum" as described by Vegas in the moves the AUDUSD has been making away from the new lows.

This is another one of those subjective areas, as on the daily chart it looked like a decent hammer two days ago. But evidently the move away from the low on the hourly chart was not fast enough.

Any thoughts on how to be sure not to get stuck "betting on red when black has all the momentum?"
  • #417
  • Mar 29, 2006 2:04pm Mar 29, 2006 2:04pm
Quoting Mx_Power
Hello Vishalshan:

I think you are wrong with CAD. This is the Vegas set up:
USD/CAD - Model #2.
You now have 3 fib lines on both sides of the tunnel [for a total of 6]. The fib numbers are calculated at 144, 233, and 377 from the daily tunnel.

Mx
Mx_Power,

Check post # 174 on page 12. We found this pair is responding well for model #1 and we started following it for the current market.

Shan
  • #418
  • Mar 29, 2006 2:09pm Mar 29, 2006 2:09pm
Quoting vishalshan
Mx_Power,

Check post # 174 on page 12. We found this pair is responding well for model #1 and we started following it for the current market.

Shan
Sorry about that Vishalshan, I missed that post.
Thanks for clear that up.

mx
  • #419
  • Mar 29, 2006 2:17pm Mar 29, 2006 2:17pm
Quoting vinn234
The way it looks as of right now the Aud is forming another hammer for today confirming more support in the area of 7045 /30 . Got Stoped out of my original entry . As Vegas says if you get stoped out twice in the same position the pair is in a strong trend, I have a second chance @ this pair from wat I see on the daily it shuold happen any day Now !!!!
Hey i took that position yesterday and made 20 pips can't be bad.....got nervous and cashed it ....should have left it in....this pair has me jumpy....what do you know i'm back in again at 7067. Your right it surely looks set to turn .let it be soon .I can't wait for a good signal on a pair with some volatility...
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #420
  • Mar 29, 2006 2:21pm Mar 29, 2006 2:21pm
I wonder if aud/usd can go up as long as nzd/usd goes down, they are connected and kiwi looks extremely depressed to me... But I guess price action will tell us the answer, still waiting for that speed and momentum

BTW, hope there will be a vwb model for nzd/usd, I like to watch that pair... Have put my own fibo lines there but would be nice to see an "official" version.
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