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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,101
  • Aug 18, 2011 1:50am Aug 18, 2011 1:50am
Quoting Evak
Yeah the 3 scenarios are the key. Inventory adjustment or correction are just a term to denote the eventuality of price fitting into a symmetry or coming into balance.

When i view session profile i use a triangle to approximate a bell to visualize the shape. it can be single day or multi-day, since we do not have a profile merger tool.

yesterday session with a single day merge will look like the day profile set to UK.

For day profile just set your DayStartHour to UK open. Of coz I am refering to [url="http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=696384&d=May%2011,%202011%2010:12am"]this...
omg... , you're like a book
how are you kave..
...
  • #3,102
  • Aug 18, 2011 1:53am Aug 18, 2011 1:53am
Quoting bandung
omg... , you're like a book
how are you kave..
Master is back how are u buddy. I suspect u been busy for so long i was wondering when are u open for a personal request from me...haha

Good day bro...
  • #3,103
  • Aug 18, 2011 1:55am Aug 18, 2011 1:55am
Quoting Kang_Gun
Nice Kave...
What is periode for the BB?

Thanks

KG
Hey KG nice to see you
just a simple 50 period. I posted it here recently for Alexm. FYI
  • #3,104
  • Aug 18, 2011 2:23am Aug 18, 2011 2:23am
Quoting Evak
Master is back how are u buddy. I suspect u been busy for so long i was wondering when are u open for a personal request from me...haha

Good day bro...
haha master of what...

yea i'm busy playing travian.. weww

you can always send me a pm


KG... kumaha damang? hope you doin great.
...
  • #3,105
  • Aug 18, 2011 2:49am Aug 18, 2011 2:49am
Quoting bandung
omg... , you're like a book
how are you kave..
Welcome back Bandung
  • #3,106
  • Aug 18, 2011 2:54am Aug 18, 2011 2:54am
Quoting bandung
haha master of what...

yea i'm busy playing travian.. weww

you can always send me a pm


KG... kumaha damang? hope you doin great.
Damang bro... everyday always a great day

KG
  • #3,107
  • Aug 18, 2011 2:56am Aug 18, 2011 2:56am
So now UK open IB about to complete in 10 min.

1. We have US session short.
2. Asian session also short but a bit balance.
3. Only daily profile we are at the middle of the yesterday range.
4. 8.30ET we have unemployment claim report.
5. 10.00ET we have existing home sales.

So what are our chances?
1. Break above IB and go.
2. Or another balanced UK profile till US open to see the data and test yesterday high one more time.

What are your view Kave?
  • #3,108
  • Edited 3:39am Aug 18, 2011 3:28am | Edited 3:39am
Quoting alexm
So now UK open IB about to complete in 10 min.

1. We have US session short.
2. Asian session also short but a bit balance.
3. Only daily profile we are at the middle of the yesterday range.
4. 8.30ET we have unemployment claim report.
5. 10.00ET we have existing home sales.

So what are our chances?
1. Break above IB and go.
2. Or another balanced UK profile till US open to see the data and test yesterday high one more time.

What are your view Kave?
Sorry bro,

Crunch time so offline. I gues u would have know the answer by now..

In any case here is my view prior & into the trade. (i just reduce all my exposure by mistake at 4450)

1: Inventory is short for the morning sessions. So at least you have to open to the possibility of weak shorts that could be taken out as price tested previous lows & revert (spring). Note that the text profile did not show the UK opening A period making a lower low before it sprung but the price did.

2: As for the daily, if UK open within VA but below POC , it should test the VAL or slightly below of this balance day, but just above yesterdays buying tail or spike acting as support, that would be your potential trade location (TL) or the unfair low zone. Basically the idea is to trade back up to control point at the very least & then toe VAL. (80% rule)

3: Entry was made when the 15min pin bar completes with substantial volume (a must). The VWAP SD helps alot, target to next nearest 2 round numbers, not too near though. 4450 & 4500 should do. Also check the daily VAH for proximity.

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/9915/...40aug18162.gif

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  • #3,109
  • Edited 4:46am Aug 18, 2011 4:18am | Edited 4:46am
Quoting alexm

So what are our chances?
1. Break above IB and go.
I can only speak for my self here:

With regards to use of IB breakout as a strategy to enter a trade. In my view there are 2 kinds of breakout.

For an upmove: (Vice-versa for a downmove)
1: Price open above POC, Break out after a test of POC (bounce) - STRONGER
2: Breakout after traversing POC. - WEAKER
Add: The above assumes the price open within VA. Condition may not apply if price opens outside VA as most likely price could be in unfair levels. So any opening initiatives or responsive activities may be construe as strong to begin with.
Of coz it also depends on any minus developments b4 the break which may indicate longer time frame involvement. Let say for e.g u have a case like no.2 where price opens below POC traded lower & eventually we see a strong buying tail. Price reverse back up & eventually break out of IB. In this case this add more strengths to the flow, you could rank it as a strong potential for price excursion.

Today's daily profile is a good e.g of no.2. The Price open below POC, lack of minus development, so one could expect a weaker capital flow if it were to range extend as it traverse pass POC.
  • #3,110
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:28am Aug 18, 2011 5:28am
Quoting Evak
I can only speak for my self here:

With regards to use of IB breakout as a strategy to enter a trade. In my view there are 2 kinds of breakout.

For an upmove: (Vice-versa for a downmove)
1: Price open above POC, Break out after a test of POC (bounce) - STRONGER
2: Breakout after traversing POC. - WEAKER
[i]Add: The above assumes the price open within VA. Condition may not apply if price opens outside VA as most likely price could be in unfair levels. So any opening initiatives or responsive activities may be construe as strong to begin...
You are hard to compete brother, appreciate your insight.

And here is my post card from Paris.
http://www.alexmoi.net/blog/travel/to-paris-with-love/
  • #3,111
  • Edited 9:07am Aug 18, 2011 8:55am | Edited 9:07am
Currently filling yesterday London first hour/A period (I set profile daystarthour to London open)
maybe 4320 then 4280
there is a news in a couple minutes

edit: ...there's always fear... took half at 30+
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu20110818-us-a.png Size: 84 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu20110818-us-b.png Size: 57 KB
...
  • #3,112
  • Aug 18, 2011 9:05am Aug 18, 2011 9:05am
Quoting bandung
Currently filling yesterday London first hour/A period (I set profile daystarthour to London open)
maybe 4320 then 4280
there is a news in a couple minutes

edit: ... took half at 30+
U r a dare devil jump in before the news!
  • #3,113
  • Aug 18, 2011 9:18am Aug 18, 2011 9:18am
Quoting alexm
U r a dare devil jump in before the news!
my bad habbit... there is a trend line broken and then I see 2 bars reversal on 15 minutes

ps: 4280 reached
...
  • #3,114
  • Aug 18, 2011 9:39am Aug 18, 2011 9:39am
Quoting bandung
my bad habbit... there is a trend line broken and then I see 2 bars reversal on 15 minutes

ps: 4280 reached
Think Morgan Stanley report on the recession DOOM of the world has spook the market. 10 year treasury falls below 2% for the first time (scarry shit) & ES looks like a cliff & gold an Everest. I guess this is call exogenous event as far as JD is concern.

I hope none of u play "catching the falling knifes" so to speak. Nice pip B. Notice u remove the OHLC from your indi too.

Stay safe for now..don't fade a trend day unless u know what u are doing.

I am in my brother's house right now as he is a comm trader & also a MP guy. He pointed out to me something interesting on ES & why they are so bearish today..I wish i knew earlier but i have my suspect yesterday but did not take heed. I'll post the MT4 chart once i get home to my laptop.
  • #3,115
  • Aug 18, 2011 9:54am Aug 18, 2011 9:54am
Quoting alexm
You are hard to compete brother, appreciate your insight.

And here is my post card from Paris.
http://www.alexmoi.net/blog/travel/to-paris-with-love/
Nah..just an observation. Just in case if u din notice. Todays daily profile lose contro of yesterday's POC as it perk up & reverse back down to UK opening price. So this is the no.1 scenario i;v talk about if u wana break out of IB range with a strong impetus.

Tks for the photos i really enjoy Paris when i was there the 2nd time. the first time was just a day trip then as i was coming from Brussels & back, dreary day. your Paris looks sunny
  • #3,116
  • Aug 18, 2011 10:06am Aug 18, 2011 10:06am
Quoting Evak
Think Morgan Stanley report on the recession DOOM of the world has spook the market. 10 year treasury falls below 2% for the first time (scarry shit) & ES looks like a cliff & gold an Everest. I guess this is call exogenous event as far as JD is concern.

I hope none of u play "catching the falling knifes" so to speak. Nice pip B. Notice u remove the OHLC from your indi too.

Stay safe for now..don't fade a trend day unless u know what u are doing.

I am in my brother's house right now as he is a comm trader & also a MP guy. He pointed...
thanks K for the infos..

yeah.. I think it look prettier w/o OHLC bar.. lol
...
  • #3,117
  • Edited 8:51pm Aug 18, 2011 7:19pm | Edited 8:51pm
Quoting Evak
Think Morgan Stanley report on the recession DOOM of the world has spook the market. 10 year treasury falls below 2% for the first time (scarry shit) & ES looks like a cliff & gold an Everest. I guess this is call exogenous event as far as JD is concern.

I hope none of u play "catching the falling knifes" so to speak. Nice pip B. Notice u remove the OHLC from your indi too.

Stay safe for now..don't fade a trend day unless u know what u are doing.

I am in my brother's house right now as he is a comm trader & also a MP guy. He pointed...
Kave,
I have never really pay attention to price open above or below yesterday POC, it is a blessing that you have a brother who is a comm trader who know the game so you have a better edge, but the market situation now is hard to trade. Hope your brother can give some insight.
  • #3,118
  • Aug 18, 2011 7:21pm Aug 18, 2011 7:21pm
Quoting bandung
thanks K for the infos..

yeah.. I think it look prettier w/o OHLC bar.. lol
Yes, I like it, just like those bay watch babes ;P
  • #3,119
  • Edited 3:52am Aug 19, 2011 3:38am | Edited 3:52am
Quoting alexm
Kave,
I have never really pay attention to price open above or below yesterday POC, it is a blessing that you have a brother who is a comm trader who know the game so you have a better edge, but the market situation now is hard to trade. Hope your brother can give some insight.
Brother in law actually. I am just trying to steal some secrets from him on using delta footprint charts. Not into it yet but trying to get familiarize & i don't have the S/W myself...so..

Anyway he was saying opening drive was significant as it took out a previous NY session double top as it struggles upwards & was taken out by the D period on Wed NY opening. Since Monday it was balancing within a trading range...

JD mentioned that for openings, one of the refernce is your opening price..if price auction up & reverse back in to the open price, u have to smell fish. This is exactly what happened to EU on Wed NY pit session opening where the open price was taken out by B period.

Chart of ES during Wed's opening rejection in NY;
http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/2...56aug19161.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
  • #3,120
  • Aug 19, 2011 3:47am Aug 19, 2011 3:47am
The balance area of the lower distribution of daily provides the trade location for this trade. Given the balance profile. I can only assume that POC is still in control & further dip or price beyond VA would have to be deem unfair prior to rotation back up.

Session inventory is short, NY's low is my immediate reference.

Waited for UK opening of A&B period to react & eventually found volume coming in by mid of B period as it traded back to NY's low; I make my entry.

1st exposure reduce at vwap just above 4300, remaining 4350.
Initial risk to trade is 17.5 pips.

http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/514...58aug19164.gif

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