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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #100,561
  • Aug 17, 2011 9:23am Aug 17, 2011 9:23am
Quoting nAVIN2007
hey mike..pullback to the 50 fibo worked like a charm
damn u just gotta love this stuff

thanks mike for all yah do
killer touch you nailed it

Nice trade navin

Mike
  • #100,562
  • Aug 17, 2011 10:30am Aug 17, 2011 10:30am
Quoting mbqb11
looks like a nice long to me. Play off the weekly base it off the weekly. Look at the two bar lows, that's our first trouble area(FTA)

Mike
I'd say this hit it
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  • #100,563
  • Aug 17, 2011 10:40am Aug 17, 2011 10:40am
Quoting mbqb11
I'd say this hit it
Fantastic!

Edit:

Actually, Mike. Got a coupla questions for u...

1. Have I drawn the Fibo correctly in the chart below?
2. If so, what do we gather from it? Is 38.2 significant?
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  • #100,564
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:12am Aug 17, 2011 11:12am
Quoting joelcf
It's the average amount per trade that you should expect to make on that trade, over the 'long term' (without dorking it up too much and getting into variance or central limit theorem) (ugh, dorked).

The usual trite example is a coin flip.
Do it once? you might get heads or tails.
Do it twice? You could easily see 2 heads or 2 tails.
Do it a million times? You expect to see the distribution approach 500k-500k.
And so on.



Risk.



That's a pretty disingenuous statement that is only true if you select a very, very...
Thank you very much Joel! Well I really don't mind having 0,25r per trade after a number of trades. so theoretically after 100 trades I should have 25r profit. that is really awesome with only 75% win rate and tp being half of my sl. so if I risk 2% I make 50% account gain! wait that is with 75% hit rate where tp is 0.5r?? either I made errors in my calculations or is this really so?
  • #100,565
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:15am Aug 17, 2011 11:15am
Quoting Frxter
Fantastic!

Edit:

Actually, Mike. Got a coupla questions for u...

1. Have I drawn the Fibo correctly in the chart below?
2. If so, what do we gather from it? Is 38.2 significant?

Hey Frx

Yes your fibo would be correct if we are looking for reasons why sellers might come in. So the 38.2 lines up with the 90 brn and the close/open of those two bar lows. It's a good area to watch for a bounce. I would localize it more to just the bar lows as our previous chart. Fibs aren't magic, just represent the % retrace of a move. What we do with that is figure out how it may or may not line up with other important information

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #100,566
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:21am Aug 17, 2011 11:21am
Quoting joelcf
Wish I could take credit, but its a quote from the greatest movie ever made - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

My biggest weakness used to be being unsure of myself, second guessing, wanting 23 independent opinions, etc before i acted; kind of an excuse to blame other people if things didnt work out, I guess. In the end though, hesitation gets you killed. Dont see Bear Grylls asking the internet for advice everytime he wants to kill, eat or pee on something (generally the latter).

Glad you like it
I had the same problem. I was trying to overload with information because I thought I was smart and could assimilate it all. But I was just looking for certainty, which doesn't exist in trading. I have no idea what the next trade will do, but if I have an edge it shouldn't matter.

Clearing out all the noise from my head really did help me trade better. When I'm spending too much time on reuters, bloomberg or even on forums, it's a sign for me (and only me) that my head is getting out of the game.

Speaking of which...
  • #100,567
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:22am Aug 17, 2011 11:22am
Any one knows any other good Equity Curve Generator?
The HQuotes doesn't load on my PC...
  • #100,568
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:24am Aug 17, 2011 11:24am
Hey Mike (Mbq) have to be certain so many Mikes around now, I bailed on my Swissy position when I saw it tanking due to news, I need to be more confident, send me some of that tiger blood you drinking.
  • #100,569
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:25am Aug 17, 2011 11:25am
Quoting TiaForex
I had the same problem. I was trying to overload with information because I thought I was smart and could assimilate it all. But I was just looking for certainty, which doesn't exist in trading. I have no idea what the next trade will do, but if I have an edge it shouldn't matter.

Clearing out all the noise from my head really did help me trade better. When I'm spending too much time on reuters, bloomberg or even on forums, it's a sign for me (and only me) that my head is getting out of the game.

Speaking of which...
Hey Buddy

Still waiting on my phone #
  • #100,570
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:26am Aug 17, 2011 11:26am
Quoting Adilius07
Any one knows any other good Equity Curve Generator?
The HQuotes doesn't load on my PC...
this been down for awhile now, unfortunately it's a neat little tool

Mike
  • #100,571
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:26am Aug 17, 2011 11:26am
Quoting Patrick.
Hey Mike (Mbq) have to be certain so many Mikes around now, I bailed on my Swissy position when I saw it tanking due to news, I need to be more confident, send me some of that tiger blood you drinking.
I am holding for now, no tiger blood here, just a pinbar

pinnnning?! (winning, ah you get it ) lolol
  • #100,572
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:28am Aug 17, 2011 11:28am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Buddy

Still waiting on my phone #
Hahaha...on man I'd forgotten about that. Will a restraining order do instead ?

Sorry. Must stop clogging the thread.
  • #100,573
  • Aug 17, 2011 11:30am Aug 17, 2011 11:30am
Quoting TiaForex
Hahaha...on man I'd forgotten about that. Will a restraining order do instead ?

Sorry. Must stop clogging the thread.
any connection is a good connection
  • #100,574
  • Aug 17, 2011 1:06pm Aug 17, 2011 1:06pm
Quoting Adilius07
Thank you very much Joel! Well I really don't mind having 0,25r per trade after a number of trades. so theoretically after 100 trades I should have 25r profit. that is really awesome with only 75% win rate and tp being half of my sl. so if I risk 2% I make 50% account gain! wait that is with 75% hit rate where tp is 0.5r?? either I made errors in my calculations or is this really so?
it's correct; 50% after 100 trades.

but "only 75%"? 75% is... very very very far from "only". Remember to take in acct. the trades you close at be - 75% is quite a lot; ok, you can trade mechanically and never move to be - then it's plain - either sl or tp.

And here is a trade-off too - either you wait for great setups or you take less good ones too, but you risk less.

The 1st is obviously easier - on the other hand, a losing streak won't be too pleasant, since you risk a lot(2%); the other is more stressing and with more time invested, but you get a smoother curve - with obviously less % risked and less % of success and with more constant monthly gain(great setups happen when they happen). Here's also a matter of taste(time, energy, resistance to stress, willing to "slug it out", etc).

there's always a trade-off
  • #100,575
  • Aug 17, 2011 2:31pm Aug 17, 2011 2:31pm
Quoting jarroo
Sorry the charts are not labeled . .from the PF ..

What was the draw Down on this??? . . .


Gotta go for now

Jim
Jaroo,

16475 is matching highs for the last 3 weeks (save a pip or two) as opposed to a long running PPZ (with 16500 just above)
I assume the close over 16500 is significant and then entry on touch 1 hour chart? (or wait for a break of the bar?)
  • #100,576
  • Aug 17, 2011 5:08pm Aug 17, 2011 5:08pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Frx

Yes your fibo would be correct if we are looking for reasons why sellers might come in. So the 38.2 lines up with the 90 brn and the close/open of those two bar lows. It's a good area to watch for a bounce. I would localize it more to just the bar lows as our previous chart. Fibs aren't magic, just represent the % retrace of a move. What we do with that is figure out how it may or may not line up with other important information

Hope that helps
Mike
Thanks. Will watch the area... should be fun.

Cheers
  • #100,577
  • Edited 7:05pm Aug 17, 2011 6:30pm | Edited 7:05pm
Quoting snowly
true





aye... though it's still 1.655 in the way.
Which is going to be stronger, the 165500 or the 1.65000 with the consolidation?

EDIT: The daily bar just closed above the BRN and the consolidation box on IBFX.

Let's just see if the top of this box will act as a springboard, if price comes back and shows us some PA.
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  • #100,578
  • Aug 17, 2011 7:05pm Aug 17, 2011 7:05pm
Hi folks,

Just wondering if EURAUD is good for a short entry.

Pros:
- Weekly shows nice bearish pinbar
- Pinbar's broken with a close below PPZ
- Long term trend is down
Cons:
- Pinbar looks like Danny De Vito besides Arnie in Twins. The massive bullish bar of the previous week is Arnie, of course.
- Pretty close consolidation area
- No PA Bar on Daily chart

Questions:
- Is this an A or B+ setup, if at all? I know it's not A+.
- Have I identified target area 1.3400 right or is it far fetched... LOL ?

Any thoughts appreciated.

Cheers
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  • #100,579
  • Aug 17, 2011 7:11pm Aug 17, 2011 7:11pm
Quoting Adilius07
Hi Bemac, may I ask, if so how to deal with those full losses that will wipe out 3-4 previous winners?
How to make it profitable if RR doesn't really matter?
Great Question Adilius & deserves an honest answer. I will give this answer my best effort but I have been known (in the past) to be somewhat cryptic.

How can you possiibly hope be successfull if you don't run an RR enquiry before Entering a Trade.
(Adilius, is that a fair abridged version of your question?)

The answer is simple really.

I do. but I do it in another fashion.

Before you Enter a Trade
Draw, or imagine, Two Horizontal Lines.
One will be where you have decided how far Price can move toward your Goal. (remember. Runners are Bonus. Pick a realistic number that you feel PA can hit.)

For Most Fledgling Traders, That completes their analysis.
For me & a bunch of Other Real Traders here, That's Half the work done.
Now I have to open my mind & look at it from the other side.
Where is Their Hunt? The one that will pop MY balloon.
Where do They regain Control?

This does numerous things for me. Not the Least of which is assisting in whether to Flip or Concede.

So my Answer is simple really.
Once I imagine Those Lines, Long to 'x', short to 'y', I just want to see that my target is farther away than Theirs.
No Math Required.
The Greater the difference, The more I am interested but Any difference between Upside/Downside causes me interest.

You see I don't look or hunt for, & since I don't, I may not state this correctly, 1:2 RR or 1:3RR...
I look for Potential UP vs Potential Down & IF they have a big enough difference, they offer me a bias. That'ts all I really need to pick a subject.
Now all I have to do is wait for PA.
Bottom Line,
If my potential Gain is Greater than my Potential Loss, I'm probably interested. No % Required.

*NOTE* NOT A RECCOMMENDED METHOD TO FOOL AROUND WITH.
Just keep it in mind for when you are comfortable with a Market.

B
  • #100,580
  • Aug 17, 2011 7:29pm Aug 17, 2011 7:29pm
Quoting Frxter
Hi folks,

Just wondering if EURAUD is good for a short entry.

Pros:
- Weekly shows nice bearish pinbar
- Pinbar's broken with a close below PPZ
- Long term trend is down
Cons:
- Pinbar looks like Danny De Vito besides Arnie in Twins. The massive bullish bar of the previous week is Arnie, of course.
- Pretty close consolidation area
- No PA Bar on Daily chart

Questions:
- Is this an A or B+ setup, if at all? I know it's not A+.
- Have I identified target area 1.3400 right or is it far fetched... LOL ?

Any thoughts appreciated.

Cheers
when did you meet pinbar? i didn't know he looked like danny devito?

My feed on weeky isn't a really a pinbar, but yours look to be. I don't think that 1.3400 is "unreasonable" but there's a lot of traffic in the way as you noted. I marked what I consider FTA (and I am conservative in marking those). We can't be surprised at all if price reverses position there.

I wouldn't trade that weekly bar due to FTA so close and 1.3700. That being said, I posted last week that I had an order on the daily BEOB that followed the daily PB. It didn't break within the time I set so order was cancelled. If you do trade this pair take note of the trouble areas and manage accordingly.
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