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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #100,541
  • Aug 17, 2011 5:01am Aug 17, 2011 5:01am
Quoting mmikemj
Hi Folks , my first posting on this group , been monitoring for a short while now.
let me introduce myself,, Mike from Hout Bay , a village on the coast, about 20 kilometers from Cape Town Central,that's about pretty close to the most Southern part of Africa.
Been trading a short while , and kinda holding my own..
Aware of some of what you talk about.
I am curently monitoring the current posts , as well as reading from post 1,
I wont be reading all the posts though.
regards to all,
From a warm (24C) sunny windless , cape Town
Mike
Hi Mike, hope we can learn from each other and share ideas!
  • #100,542
  • Aug 17, 2011 5:12am Aug 17, 2011 5:12am
Hi Joel,

I see you are here, may I ask you please, what are your personal view about RR thing? For example, will you take a high probability setup if you see that your outcome will be 0.4R?
  • #100,543
  • Aug 17, 2011 5:38am Aug 17, 2011 5:38am
Quoting Adilius07
Hi Joel,

I see you are here, may I ask you please, what are your personal view about RR thing? For example, will you take a high probability setup if you see that your outcome will be 0.4R?
Depends on the probability.

Quoting joelcf
r:R is for girls. Real men look at expected value
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post2877229

I'm on Team Mike.

Quoting mbqb11
Also as far as the risk to reward, that topic has been beaten to death so much I am not going to go into it more then this. Your risk reward means nothing as long as you are profitable. Someone who takes of a few pips here and there is fine if they are consistently winning and pulling in money like that. The myth that you have to go for 1:1 or 1:2 risk to reward, is nothing more then a forex "slogan". It is whatever works for you.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #100,544
  • Aug 17, 2011 5:41am Aug 17, 2011 5:41am
Hello, dear Sirs, help me please. What are the trading platform in the world, except for MT4? All the time I was trading on MT4. Now I bought a computer Apple with MAC OS. I want to try something new. Help, please who know this.
  • #100,545
  • Aug 17, 2011 5:47am Aug 17, 2011 5:47am
If you can, and you know, please give links to such resources and their comments and feedback. It is interesting to know in advance what I'm dealing with good software. Thank you.
  • #100,546
  • Aug 17, 2011 6:14am Aug 17, 2011 6:14am
Quoting joelcf
Depends on the probability.



http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post2877229

I'm on Team Mike.

Thank you very much Joel, I read that post twice. Surprised I missed it before.

EV = (0.75 * r) + (0.25 * -2r) = 0.25r

Just to clarify the EV will be my expected value for each trade or cumulative after say 100 trades?

If I have 75% win rate and 0.5R reward to risk (like in the above formula) that will equal to 0.25R Expected Value OF WHAT??? I made 100 trades I made 0.25R? ---no should not be so...

Sorry for this dumb question, but I am a little confused now. Expected value of WHAT?
  • #100,547
  • Aug 17, 2011 6:39am Aug 17, 2011 6:39am
Quoting Adilius07
Thank you very much Joel, I read that post twice. Surprised I missed it before.

EV = (0.75 * r) + (0.25 * -2r) = 0.25r

Just to clarify the EV will be my expected value for each trade or cumulative after say 100 trades?

If I have 75% win rate and 0.5R reward to risk (like in the above formula) that will equal to 0.25R Expected Value OF WHAT??? I made 100 trades I made 0.25R? ---no should not be so...

Sorry for this dumb question, but I am a little confused now. Expected value of WHAT?
of % risked; of how much you "play"/stand to lose, etc...

But really, it's not about r:r(and I look at r:r, contrary to others) - the price goes from a to b. If it broke a, it gets to b. It doesn't stop in the middle or anything like that - it's like the earth - it's round and that's that. And price goes from a to b and then c and so on(ok, on crosses it can vary since they're influenced by arbitrage, but still).

so - you can gain x(the fta) and lose y and that's that. On average ofc. - if you're very greedy you'll miss some tp as I did today on gbp/usd, but that's again irrelevant, because statistically I know it pays to be greedy and take it to the brink of support/ress. line since overall I win more than I lose...

There's nothing you can change here - it's about picking the correct trades; it's nothing mathematical in this - generally, this occupation has very little to do with maths(heck - one of the most used indicators/whatever you wanna call Fibonacci is drawn of a series I didn't find interesting even at 14 years of age - generally ppl. aren't too math savvy in this field and rightfully so - it's not an useful skill for this activity). Honestly, trying to dodge the "pick the right trades" part won't get you too far. Money management will prevent you from blowing up your acct. - an invaluable asset; but if the trades picked are wrong, money management can't do much.

If you don't pick the right trades, a magic r:r won't make the balance positive. It's about figuring out what are the chances that the trade goes in your favour(which is a glorified way of saying that you have to pick the right trades - I'm repeating myself too much).

From there, it's trivial to figure out if you want to get in it - if I assume there's x% chance of trade to go in my way and r:r is 1:1, then I want in if x >= 50%(ok, I'd say 65%, but it's a matter of taste - however, obviously it'd be dumb to go in if x < 50%). But still, the key is to figure out x; empirically - there's no formula - you look at charts, you look at fundamentals and you guess and that's that. And LTCM still went broke...
  • #100,548
  • Aug 17, 2011 7:11am Aug 17, 2011 7:11am
Quoting snowly
of % risked; of how much you "play"/stand to lose, etc...

But really, it's not about r:r(and I look at r:r, contrary to others) - the price goes from a to b. If it broke a, it gets to b. It doesn't stop in the middle or anything like that - it's like the earth - it's round and that's that. And price goes from a to b and then c and so on(ok, on crosses it can vary since they're influenced by arbitrage, but still).

so - you can gain x(the fta) and lose y and that's that. On average ofc. - if you're very greedy you'll miss some tp as I did today...
Thanks. I understand better now. So the bottom line is this: if I take super awesome setups and skip all mediocre onces and take full TP at the FTA (RR of which is really doesn't matter but preferably more than 0.5R) I should make money.

I need to somehow make myself to believe in this now...
Let's see how it will go for me, for this month I had no trades so far, so trying to stay picky...
  • #100,549
  • Aug 17, 2011 7:24am Aug 17, 2011 7:24am
Quoting Adilius07
Just to clarify the EV will be my expected value for each trade or cumulative after say 100 trades?
It's the average amount per trade that you should expect to make on that trade, over the 'long term' (without dorking it up too much and getting into variance or central limit theorem) (ugh, dorked).

The usual trite example is a coin flip.
Do it once? you might get heads or tails.
Do it twice? You could easily see 2 heads or 2 tails.
Do it a million times? You expect to see the distribution approach 500k-500k.
And so on.

Quoting Adilius07
If I have 75% win rate and 0.5R reward to risk (like in the above formula) that will equal to 0.25R Expected Value OF WHAT??? I made 100 trades I made 0.25R? ---no should not be so...
Risk.

Quoting snowly
it's nothing mathematical in this - generally, this occupation has very little to do with maths...generally ppl. aren't too math savvy in this field and rightfully so - it's not an useful skill for this activity).
That's a pretty disingenuous statement that is only true if you select a very, very small subset of 'traders' as 'this profession'. The number of professional traders and dealers I *personally* know (as opposed to some guy on the internet who claims it, like Jacko or the other clown whose name I dont recall) who arent 'math savvy' can be counted on... zero hands.

no doubt there is some sampling bias in there, but anyhoo

Quoting Adilius07
Thanks. I understand better now. So the bottom line is this: if I take super awesome setups and skip all mediocre onces and take full TP at the FTA (RR of which is really doesn't matter but preferably more than 0.5R) I should make money.
lol. 'take good bars in good places, A+ setups, then manage risk before price hits a ppz'?

Pretty sure I've heard that somewhere before.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #100,550
  • Aug 17, 2011 7:43am Aug 17, 2011 7:43am
Quoting joelcf
That's a pretty disingenuous statement that is only true if you select a very, very small subset of 'traders' as 'this profession'. The number of professional traders and dealers I *personally* know (as opposed to some guy on the internet who claims it, like Jacko or the other clown whose name I dont recall) who arent 'math savvy' can be counted on... zero hands.

no doubt there is some sampling bias in there, but anyhoo
well, I happen to know maths, but can't say it helped me directly in this endeavor(as in - I have formula x which I implement and it tells me if the trade is good or not). Sure, having an analytical mind is invaluable and maths helps a ton here, but you can have a good analytical mind even without being maths savvy.

otherwise, no sample; just books I've read and frankly, if maths was touched, was pretty basic to put it mildly.
  • #100,551
  • Aug 17, 2011 7:46am Aug 17, 2011 7:46am
Do we have a breakout trade in the making.
Let's see what it does.
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  • #100,552
  • Edited 8:22am Aug 17, 2011 8:05am | Edited 8:22am
Quoting snowly
otherwise, no sample; just books I've read and frankly, if maths was touched, was pretty basic to put it mildly.
I suspect that has more to deal with the marketability of The Secret Methods that Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders!@#$%&*

as opposed to.. less sensational works

(in the end, I suspect we actually agree - the math needed to implement this particular system isnt hard. At all. But the lack of mathematical thinking is also why there are so many losing traders. And, possibly worse, so many losing traders that dont even know they are losing traders.... yet)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #100,553
  • Aug 17, 2011 8:09am Aug 17, 2011 8:09am
Quoting joelcf
I suspect that has more to deal with the marketability of The Secret Methods that Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders!@#$%&*

as opposed to.. less sensational works
true


Quoting Pinbar
Do we have a breakout trade in the making.
Let's see what it does.

aye... though it's still 1.655 in the way.
  • #100,554
  • Aug 17, 2011 8:12am Aug 17, 2011 8:12am
Quoting Pinbar
Do we have a breakout trade in the making.
Let's see what it does.
hey steve .on my chart :on h4 chart ,the 1.6475 will be the s&r line .and now it near the big up trend line on weekly chart again .need PA
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #100,555
  • Aug 17, 2011 8:19am Aug 17, 2011 8:19am
Quoting edge540
Please share with all of us,thanks.
Don't want to hijack this thread but there's no big mystery. If the OP comes back and explains what he did, I will explain what he needs to do.

-Tom
  • #100,556
  • Aug 17, 2011 8:29am Aug 17, 2011 8:29am
Quoting Crane80
Hey Mike,
Swiss Central Bank made an announcement about CHF that was not foreseen by anyone and after the announcement USD/CHF dropped to 0,7850.
As far as I know you ignore all of the news and let PA tell you what to do.
The question is; is it wise to manage the trade more tightly from now on? Or should the news and its probable effects be ignored again?
Thanks...
I think the announcement that the SNB made encouraged increased demand for CHF in the short term. But the longer term impact would be a weakening CHF.
  • #100,557
  • Aug 17, 2011 8:59am Aug 17, 2011 8:59am
Sorry the charts are not labeled . .from the PF ..

What was the draw Down on this??? . . .


Gotta go for now

Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #100,558
  • Aug 17, 2011 9:08am Aug 17, 2011 9:08am
Quoting jarroo
Sorry the charts are not labeled . .from the PF ..

What was the draw Down on this??? . . .


Gotta go for now

Jim
yeah, was obvious since it didn't react properly at the string of bad news from gbp this morning.

was pissed that I've missed the target on the down spike by 10 pips so didn't touch it anymore... Obviously now I'm even more pissed

Jackson Hole is coming... it's gonna be fun after it'll be gone
  • #100,559
  • Aug 17, 2011 9:13am Aug 17, 2011 9:13am
Quoting mmikemj
Hi Folks , my first posting on this group , been monitoring for a short while now.
let me introduce myself,, Mike from Hout Bay , a village on the coast, about 20 kilometers from Cape Town Central,that's about pretty close to the most Southern part of Africa.
Been trading a short while , and kinda holding my own..
Aware of some of what you talk about.
I am curently monitoring the current posts , as well as reading from post 1,
I wont be reading all the posts though.
regards to all,
From a warm (24C) sunny windless , cape Town
Mike
Hey Mike from a fellow Mike

Welcome sir

Mike
  • #100,560
  • Aug 17, 2011 9:18am Aug 17, 2011 9:18am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Mike from a fellow Mike

Welcome sir

Mike

hey mike..pullback to the 50 fibo worked like a charm
damn u just gotta love this stuff

thanks mike for all yah do
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