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  • #1,441
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:26am Aug 17, 2011 3:26am
Quoting NTM
How do you know? A level is a level and price turned at the level. The PA said down, the news helped it on its way. If you can't learn from your mistakes and accept that losses are an inherent part of the game you're not gonna make it.

Orderflow from news is not independent from levels in the market. Market-makers know where the most orders are and news or not these orders create the levels and will mark the turning points.
Price didnt drop becouse of this level. You could sold the break of the 1.1500 and profit but the profit came from the comments and not from the static orders awaiting there before the anouncement.
  • #1,442
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:32am Aug 17, 2011 3:32am
haha ok

bottom line - price will turn at a ppz regardless of your perceived 'cause' of order flow. MMs know where the standing orders are and will move the market into liquidity if they can once they get orders in reaction to news. The reason for orderflow doesn't change the underlying structure of the market.

carry on.
  • #1,443
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:33am Aug 17, 2011 3:33am
Quoting MidKnight
Wiz,

How can it be hard to explain when you previously made it sound like it should be very obvious with regards to your chf/jpy post......
In some cases it is relatively simple but in general there is too much to consider for me to explain easily in static charts.
  • #1,444
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:37am Aug 17, 2011 3:37am
Quoting NTM
haha ok

bottom line - price will turn at a ppz regardless of your perceived 'cause' of order flow.

carry on.
Dont get me wrong here. I love TA and i enjoy macro very much. All my trading is wrapped around some S/R areas but being aware of what is going on outside the chart proved to be big help. I agree with all you say about orders stacking at the PPZ areas and i dont wont to turn it to macro vs TA discussion.

All the best...... GBPUSD 1.6400 anyone?
  • #1,445
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:40am Aug 17, 2011 3:40am
For me FA is not reaction to news announcement as many day/prop traders seem to think - it's a much longer view. You might like these, from the pov of an FX market maker.

http://www.trade2win.com/section/art...rader-part-1-a

http://www.trade2win.com/section/art...rader-part-2-a
  • #1,446
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:41am Aug 17, 2011 3:41am
Quoting NTM
haha ok

bottom line - price will turn at a ppz regardless of your perceived 'cause' of order flow.

carry on.
I agree with both of you guys.

As far as I am concerned, Greenhaze is right : the simple fact is that traders were bidding up the USD/CHF aggressively on the expectation of a Euro peg. When the SNB failed to mention this, the safest thing to do was drop it like a hot potato.

Remember, some of those guys will be in considerable profit having accumulated near the lows and will be thinking "lets get into cash until the next move from the SNB becomes apparent". At the same time, weak longs that bought near the highs (weekly pin bar anyone?) will be forced to bail as price comes off, further exacerbating the decline. And still more speculative shorts will come in thinking that price will be overdone up here.

As NTM says, the bottom line is that the majority of the time, price will turn at a PPZ regardless of the perceived "cause" of the order flow. I couldn't have put this any better myself. In fact it is something that has startled me throughout my career as a trader.

Sure there are times when news will come out and price will cut right through all your best levels but on the whole, I have found that the vast majority of the time, its like the news seems to "follow" the technicals. It makes no sense but that's just the way I have found it.

Funnily enough, this phenomenon happened to me enough as a prop trader that a few of the guys there were convinced I was a fundamentalist and would say to me "how did you know that XYZ number was going to be better than expected..." when the fact is, half the time I didn't even know there was a number coming out.
  • #1,447
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:44am Aug 17, 2011 3:44am
Quoting the_wizard
I've hit that 1.4329 long. Target 1.4520 on this one (D1 bias) but I will trail a stop as we move up.
I can't see much of a level here as per D1, or for that matter intraday, but can see the H1 wick high as a first time back opportunity. Was that the sole reason for the long here? Also, can I ask where you put the initial SL?

Thanks Tom
  • #1,448
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:47am Aug 17, 2011 3:47am
Quoting pmn100
I can't see much of a level here as per D1, or for that matter intraday, but can see the H1 wick high as a first time back opportunity. Was that the sole reason for the long here? Also, can I ask where you put the initial SL?

Thanks Tom
I have a pretty significant H1 S/R pivot here. My stop was at 1.4307 (24 pips)
  • #1,449
  • Edited 4:06am Aug 17, 2011 3:54am | Edited 4:06am
Chart of my Eur/Usd long entry at 29's this morning.

Chart 1 shows significant S/R pivot on the H1 (resistance last)

Chart 2 shows how I came up with this level ; the purple lines show the highest and lowest part of the zone as my eye defines it.

Remember I try and place my level in the mean.

If you do the math (which I don't) :

1.4344 (highest part of the zone) - 1.4309 (lowest part of the zone) = 35 pip zone.

35 / 2 = 17.5 pips is the mid point between the two.

1.4309 (lowest part of the zone) + 17.5 = 1.4326.5 (the mean)

As you can see I was just a few pips above - that's due to the inaccuracy of the eye ;-)
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  • #1,450
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:54am Aug 17, 2011 3:54am
Quoting the_wizard
I've hit that 1.4329 long. Target 1.4520 on this one (D1 bias) but I will trail a stop as we move up.
I was in same here, long from 1.4327. Exited at FTA though (1.4356), as I'm testing 1:1 RR approach. Stop was 30 pips.
The quickest pips I have made recently with 6 pips offside, I like it . Good luck with your D1 target.
Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #1,451
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:56am Aug 17, 2011 3:56am
A quick check with the fibs shows the 38% lines up too.
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  • #1,452
  • Aug 17, 2011 3:59am Aug 17, 2011 3:59am
Stop at "point A" under the last H1 thrust bar that opened BELOW and closed ABOVE the level.

Also note the acceleration into the level. That makes it even more attractive.
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  • #1,453
  • Aug 17, 2011 4:04am Aug 17, 2011 4:04am
Quoting pmn100
I can't see much of a level here as per D1, or for that matter intraday, but can see the H1 wick high as a first time back opportunity.

Thanks Tom
Hi,

I have played the same trade, because of H1 level and, what is also important for me here, trendline (price approaching trendline for the third time- FOR ME it increases probability).

Cheers
Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #1,454
  • Aug 17, 2011 4:07am Aug 17, 2011 4:07am
Just added more to post #1448 to try and clarify that level so please refresh if you haven't seen it :-)
  • #1,455
  • Aug 17, 2011 4:10am Aug 17, 2011 4:10am
Quoting the_wizard
I have a pretty significant H1 S/R pivot here. My stop was at 1.4307 (24 pips)
To me, I can barely see a pivot there. Washed over, as you'd say. I can see a cleaner support line at 1.4400, and what looks like a first time back yesterday. Did you take a long here? Because to me, 1.4400 looks a much more significant support area (yesterday morning), than the 1.4329 is today, but the later has moved well, the former failed.

Can you shed some light on what I'm missing here between the two?
  • #1,456
  • Edited 11:03am Aug 17, 2011 5:31am | Edited 11:03am
Quoting the_wizard
Nothing like summarising 11 years of hard work in a few lines - LOL
Isn't it amazing how much you think you know but when you take alot of it away you realised that the more you knew was negating you. So its almost like you was born knowing all.
  • #1,457
  • Aug 17, 2011 5:34am Aug 17, 2011 5:34am
Quoting the_wizard
I agree with both of you guys.

As far as I am concerned, Greenhaze is right : the simple fact is that traders were bidding up the USD/CHF aggressively on the expectation of a Euro peg. When the SNB failed to mention this, the safest thing to do was drop it like a hot potato.

Remember, some of those guys will be in considerable profit having accumulated near the lows and will be thinking "lets get into cash until the next move from the SNB becomes apparent". At the same time, weak longs that bought near the highs (weekly pin bar anyone?)...
Technicians Vs Fundamentalists? Tom i think S/R lines are what really is the bread and butter.
  • #1,458
  • Aug 17, 2011 6:11am Aug 17, 2011 6:11am
Tom how about adding to the position at 1.445?

I a looking to buy this area on a RR
  • #1,459
  • Aug 17, 2011 6:43am Aug 17, 2011 6:43am
Quoting the_wizard
Chart of my Eur/Usd long entry at 29's this morning.

Chart 1 shows significant S/R pivot on the H1 (resistance last)

Chart 2 shows how I came up with this level ; the purple lines show the highest and lowest part of the zone as my eye defines it.

Remember I try and place my level in the mean.

If you do the math (which I don't) :

1.4344 (highest part of the zone) - 1.4309 (lowest part of the zone) = 35 pip zone.

35 / 2 = 17.5 pips is the mid point between the two.

1.4309 (lowest part of the zone) + 17.5 = 1.4326.5 (the mean)

As...
Tom ---nice trade

Need some clarity...as you have taught and has been summarized...bias, and to put it very briefly reactions off the D1.

1)This trade, to me anyway seemed to be as you said, reaction off "significant H1 levels. It appears to me that the Euro has been going sideways. Is it safe to say that you trade a sideways market off the lower time frame S/R levels PROVIDED THEY ARE STRONG LEVELS?

2) refer to chart aud/usd H1---on a RR would you average the two prior highs to get a mean to enter long?

Please clarify, I think I'm having some confusion.

Thank you,

Bill
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  • #1,460
  • Aug 17, 2011 7:25am Aug 17, 2011 7:25am
Guys anybody taking/took aud/usd?

it is in the process I guess.
just noticed.

Ron
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