Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

Although it is very difficult to "predict" the third pivot C (pt "3" in my drawings), I do think it is worthwhile to try to do so to give evidence that a decent pivot has formed and will (more probably) hold if it has good pre-fork resonance. One can then enter higher probability trades in the new direction of the bounce.

Examine your charts for good PF's that ultimately did work out well. Notice that it can often be observed that what turns out to be a good PF going forward in time ALSO has good "pre-fork" resonance on the chart as well. That is, when the final pivot C (or 3) is formed, one can see that there is resonance backwards in time from that final pivot. This can be evidence that the final pivot has in fact formed and will hold for at least a significant bounce if not a complete reversal or major pullback.

Take the first EU H1 chart for example. Draw the first two pivots as given here for the black Andrews fork, and then shift the 3rd pivot both UP and DOWN from where the final 3rd pivot ultimately did form. You will see that for the most part, the best pre-fork resonance of the Andrews fork occurred exactly as the 3rd pivot occurred. There was also some decent resonance within 10-15 pips lower than the actual pivot "3" as well, so how might we predict if it was exactly finished or not??

Check out the 2nd EU H1 chart. The blue Andrews fork was formed, then price rose an stopped just shy of the blue ML, and then fell to the blue LML where it bounced near perfectly. This point where it bounced is exactly the 3rd point that gives good resonance on the black Andrews fork. So, you have a new fork with good pre-fork resonance, AND, it occurs at a re-test of the LML of another larger Andrews fork. That is good confluence, and ultimately price quickly rose 360+ pips, almost to the black ML.


Study the 2nd EU H1 chart further. Did the blue Andrews fork have good pre-fork resonance when it's 3rd pivot was formed?? No, not really. However, this is a good example of another related test for pre-fork resonance which is in fact to draw the Mod. Schiff fork (and sometimes regular Schiff too). I have marked a few places where the Mod.Schiff fork had good pre-fork resonance that could ultimately have given some evidence that a bottom point "3" (blue Andrews) was in place and would later prove to hold as a significant pivot. Objectively though, it has to be said that for the blue Andrews fork, the pre-fork resonance was non-existent, and the Mod.Schiff resonance wasn't very convincing or helpful for that particular fork. As I shifted the blue fork further down, I saw what looked to me like what would have been better pre-fork resonance, yet price never reached a lower level.

That said, further study of pre-fork resonance is worthwhile in my opinion, exactly because it *may* help improve the probabilities that a good final pivot C (or "3") has formed, and can be traded accordingly.

Here is a 3rd EU H1 chart to consider. Since my previous "2nd EU H1" chart had virtually no pre-fork resonance for the blue Andrews fork, I drew two more obvious Andrews forks, and it turns out that both have some pre-fork Andrews resonance that could possibly have given some confidence that a low was in place on July 12. That low also has the earmarks of an exhaustion bottom and it ultimately bounced hard.

The fact that there was some pre-fork resonance does somewhat improve the probabilities of a bounce where it did in fact occur. Objectively, though, to have gone long soon after July 12 would have been catching a falling knife and would be very tough. I looked for evidence that it bounced off another larger fork but have not found any obvious targets. Neither the red or light-blue forks were ever retested, so to me, this would have been (and was) a very tough-to-trade bounce on July 12.

good stuff pips4life

thanks

beeb

The third image shows the modified schiff for the white fork.

Thanks for the comments pips4life.

fwiw,

I will be looking for a short entry in GU .. around 1.6236 area

GC20 min

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post4865822

beeb

Just to follow on from above here is a more detailed commentary of my recent GC charting/trading:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post4867435

beeb

http://i.imgur.com/cp2qF.png

upper median line reached, downside pitchfork still trong,
Downtrend line not too far,
Also good fibonacci regresion,
Stochastic showing downside momentum above 50%

Is there any credibility in using a modified schiff on a modified schiff?

Yes it can be a credible fork. Of course the original Andrews and the M.Schiff (and regular Schiff too) usually resonate much better, I have noticed there are times when the double M.Schiff does resonate well also.

I'll tell you something else about the "M.Schiff of a M.Schiff" (aka double M.Schiff) fork, and that is you'll get exactly the same slope if you draw an Andrews fork pointing backwards but using the exact same 3 PF points. The pitch of the double M.Schiff is 1/2 that of the backwards pointing fork, but in that case you just add quartile lines to the latter and you get the same thing.

In other words, if your original Andrews is points A B C, then draw a new "Andrews" fork from points "C", then "B", then "A". That slope (though pointing backwards) is the same slope as that of a double M.Schiff. It's tough to see the equivalence unless you replicate the backwards facing fork lines and make them go forward.

IMO, larger spread out forks offer better accuracy for such long term trends as the USDUCH. For kicks, I did a quick analysis and here are two interesting Daily USDCHF charts with large (3 yr) forks.

(Note, my broker GMT-5 feed has 6-Daily-bars-per-week; some other GMT+2 feeds combine the data differently into 5-Daily-bars-per-week, and as such, the slopes and intercepts may vary. Also note: I'm note very confident of this broker's data prior to ~2010, so I don't know if my data is missing any Daily bars or not; hopefully it's reasonably accurate but compare to your own broker feed).

The black Andrews fork showed a near perfect bounce of the "quartile" line below the ML.

The dark-blue Andrews has some nice resonance too for previous pivots over the last 2 years. Notice however the olive green fork which I call "MP13" (the mid-point between points 1 and 3, which is similar to a Mod.Schiff except that a M.Schiff is the mid-point between points 1 and 2). The MP13 ML held very nicely too.

Obviously it would have been nice to see these two major touches back on Aug 9th when it bottomed and bounced 930+ pips (so far). I wasn't watching it then.

EURNZD60

second trade opportunity off the red median line
..........let's see
.

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http://gannmasterforex.blogspot.com/
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... enjoy & trade safe

I am currently long AU ..

^ EU looks like a buy right there

CAD has been showing nice frequency lately ... but i am not convinced of a long trade yet ... need to see further price action ...

I will wait for the liquidity to come into the market. Wait till 1 hour after London session starts ... or may be in Frankfurt ... dont like to trade with asians ... lots of fake moves because of low liquidity, and London guys mostly get me entry