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Higher low, lower high system

  • #4,621
  • Aug 16, 2011 2:34am Aug 16, 2011 2:34am
Quoting orientos
Sure looks like it. Yesterday we had some European bank holidays, but there appears to be no reason today. TWT.
Maybe it'll get going after inflation news at 9.30.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,622
  • Aug 16, 2011 2:34am Aug 16, 2011 2:34am
Quoting Ian
Vantage, just wondering if you still consider volume in your analysis at all? I noticed that the hammer was on falling volume. Would that lessen your confidence in it at all?
I've actually stopped using vol. From my vsa recollections high or low vol hammers both suggest reversal.
  • #4,623
  • Aug 16, 2011 2:36am Aug 16, 2011 2:36am
Quoting Ian
Maybe it'll get going after inflation news at 9.30.
Could well be, thats right on time that Mrs V and Mrs mum in law want their morning tea and snacks. Mrs V always gets the munchies with the flu!!
  • #4,624
  • Aug 16, 2011 2:42am Aug 16, 2011 2:42am
If this tl breaks, perhaps with news twt, there'll be lots of chances to sell later. GU 4hr.
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  • #4,625
  • Aug 16, 2011 4:22am Aug 16, 2011 4:22am
After the news, so far it seems the move down was the LO head fake. Straight forward trade, 1hr lower wicks, 5 min hl little no upper wicks, stall at 75 level for 25 pips (almost).
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  • #4,626
  • Aug 16, 2011 4:36am Aug 16, 2011 4:36am
I expected gu to move on higher after a stall at the W M3, 75, Asian SR level.

The amount of move down was a surprise, twt but perhaps a SS hourly close will mean move down in US session. We are still on 5 min hl though. but I might just sit on side for an hour or so waiting for this 1hr candle to close.
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  • #4,627
  • Aug 16, 2011 4:42am Aug 16, 2011 4:42am
Good trade! Didn't have the confidence to enter on those hourly lower wicks... all down to experience I guess.

Can I ask a pretty basic question? My understanding is that for confirmation of a swing, the OPPOSITE end of the candle must be taken out (exceeded). So, for a confirmed swing high, the highest candle must have its LOW taken out and vice versa for a confirmed swing low.

Do you always wait for this to happen, or are the strong entry candles, ie no forward wick, sufficient?

Sorry if this is a daft question...
  • #4,628
  • Aug 16, 2011 4:48am Aug 16, 2011 4:48am
Picture shows were i am looking for it to possibly fail from..
lines show points.. 4400..4435.. 4460.. and 4486-------note my thoughts on increased volume.. over last 11 candles or so.. some one.. bought it but then again some one sold it..
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  • #4,629
  • Aug 16, 2011 4:52am Aug 16, 2011 4:52am
Quoting Delite
Good trade! Didn't have the confidence to enter on those hourly lower wicks... all down to experience I guess.

Can I ask a pretty basic question? My understanding is that for confirmation of a swing, the OPPOSITE end of the candle must be taken out (exceeded). So, for a confirmed swing high, the highest candle must have its LOW taken out and vice versa for a confirmed swing low.

Do you always wait for this to happen, or are the strong entry candles, ie no forward wick, sufficient?

Sorry if this is a daft question...
Hi Delite
I'm not sure about your 1st point. It was the hourly lower wicks that gave the confidence for the buy on the hl?

There are a few different descriptions of a swing that I have seen. One is that a candle should have its low below the candle to its left and to its right, see arrow right. Or where there is a low the following candle should have a higher low and a higher close, see the green candle to right of the arrow right.

I'm just looking for a clear low, arrow left. Then the x is a clear hl confirmed by the positive close candle (I'm quite happy to pinch from the above descriptions where we have had a candle with a hl and hh close) with little/no upper wick. I don't want to see a big upper wick when buying which might still suggest some selling pressure.

Hope the answer doesn't sound daft!
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  • #4,630
  • Aug 16, 2011 4:55am Aug 16, 2011 4:55am
the last closed H1 candle was bullish engulfing - enough said
  • #4,631
  • Aug 16, 2011 4:57am Aug 16, 2011 4:57am
Quoting Delite

Do you always wait for this to happen, or are the strong entry candles, ie no forward wick, sufficient?
I always wait for my candles to confirm the set up with a close on 5 min. Then entry taken 1 pip beyond the extreme on next, latest 2nd candle following. Usually next candle though.
  • #4,632
  • Aug 16, 2011 4:59am Aug 16, 2011 4:59am
Quoting handy148
the last closed H1 candle was bullish engulfing - enough said
Yes I think if you were to look at 2 1hr set ups bullish/bearish engulfing and hammers/shooting stars prob the best.
  • #4,633
  • Aug 16, 2011 5:02am Aug 16, 2011 5:02am
Quoting handy148
the last closed H1 candle was bullish engulfing - enough said

Except it wasn't. Vantage entered as that candle built.
  • #4,634
  • Aug 16, 2011 5:04am Aug 16, 2011 5:04am
Quoting danc
Picture shows were i am looking for it to possibly fail from..
lines show points.. 4400..4435.. 4460.. and 4486-------note my thoughts on increased volume.. over last 11 candles or so.. some one.. bought it but then again some one sold it..
Is that sideways junk or a decent set up coming??

1hr has a neg close then a gravestone doji, thats a medium reliability bullish pattern according to candlesticker.com. So not convinced of a move down.
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  • #4,635
  • Aug 16, 2011 5:04am Aug 16, 2011 5:04am
Quoting Delite
Except it wasn't. Vantage entered as that candle built.
Yes, in this case I was in on the lower wicks on 1hr.
  • #4,636
  • Aug 16, 2011 5:16am Aug 16, 2011 5:16am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Delite


Hope the answer doesn't sound daft!
Never!

It is interesting to read different views on swings. I think I may snaffle bits of your description. In a lot of ways, I like the version which I pinched from Strat, simply because it often means less drawdown. Its all about horses for courses isn't it? For example, looking at the sticky consolidation going on in GU at present, the opportunity for a long re-entry wouldn't have occured just yet.

Re my first point, I simply meant that I have been trying to use engulfing or hammers etc

Thanks again for all of your patience!
  • #4,637
  • Aug 16, 2011 5:26am Aug 16, 2011 5:26am
The lh arrow down was confirmed when the candle following closed red. Its against the pos close 1hr candle. So no trade.

The hl arrow up confirmed when the candle closed green. By then the 1hr had closed as a SS, this might be a fake out candle as its not really at the end of a run. Anyway I'm not in this one. Strictly speaking its no trade.

Sometimes taking a punt against a SS like this works and sometimes not, whats a fake out candle and what isn't. If I had more pips in the bank I might have taken this hl. Overall trend is up, looks like earlier move lower was the LO head fake so we should have more upside, finally yes its a 1hr SS but not really what you could say is end of run.
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  • #4,638
  • Aug 16, 2011 5:45am Aug 16, 2011 5:45am
yes I should have mentioned that I use synergy candles and it was bullish engulfing with those.
  • #4,639
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:01am Aug 16, 2011 6:01am
Failing now.. off 4400 and daily pivot
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  • #4,640
  • Aug 18, 2011 4:10am Aug 18, 2011 4:10am
EU 15 min 2 shooting stars rejection of 4450 level/POC/Asian resistance level (green line), 5 min lh no lower wick, entry at 4429.

All out +22 at 4407 Asian overnight s/r level/double POC combo.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
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