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Infinite trading strategies. Where's the end?

  • #21
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:15am Aug 13, 2011 11:15am
Quoting Ged
classic phrase Cut your losses and let your winners run is also incorrect. Should i cut every pip of my losses? I doubt. So, maybe it's better to put a stop loss at 400 pips and take those 100 pips many times? It needs to be tested.
but....why is that incorrect,strikes me you are doing everything backwards
  • #22
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:32am Aug 13, 2011 11:32am
Quoting Tedge UK
but....why is that incorrect,strikes me you are doing everything backwards
well, i put my stop loss on daily chart at 1 pip. Is it correct? I risk only one pip to win for example 500 pips. Beautiful, isn't it? But obvious it's incorrect.
And It's also impossible to have many trades that are with 1:3 (risk:reward) ratio, that's why profitable trading is so hard to achieve.
I think some kind of scalping is an easier way. But don't know really. I haven't tested yet.
  • #23
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:49am Aug 13, 2011 11:49am
Quoting Ged
Will it ever stop? I mean, generation of new strategies?
Is it some kind of intellectual addiction of searching for the Holy Grail or what?

Forex is a zero sum game (a bit negative). There is no such strategy that never loses. You just have to have more positive trades than negative and when you lose you have to lose less than you win. Two goals only. And you will become a profitable trader.
Put on your chart just one or maximum two indicators and trade, trade, trade until you master those two goals i mentioned.
But i am afraid it's almost impossible....

Looks like gambling technique to me.
Its says placing an random order and no stop loss(or very large one) and than just waiting. Due to the fact that those 2 currencies are trending alot it might work for a while tho...

Quote

Will it ever stop? I mean, generation of new strategies?
Is it some kind of intellectual addiction of searching for the Holy Grail or what?

As long as there will be people seaching for holy grail there will always be new magical systems coming out and books sold teaching unprooven methods.
  • #24
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:55am Aug 13, 2011 11:55am
Quoting Ged
well, i put my stop loss on daily chart at 1 pip. Is it correct? I risk only one pip to win for example 500 pips. Beautiful, isn't it? But obvious it's incorrect.
And It's also impossible to have many trades that are with 1:3 (risk:reward) ratio, that's why profitable trading is so hard to achieve.
I think some kind of scalping is an easier way. But don't know really. I haven't tested yet.
well here's a bunch of trades that will easily net you 1:2-1:3 risk reward AND THAT AINT IMPOSSIBLE!!
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  • #25
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:05pm Aug 13, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting Tedge UK
well here's a bunch of trades that will easily net you 1:2-1:3 risk reward AND THAT AINT IMPOSSIBLE!!
it's history. In real time it's not that easy. In real time i usually encounter a bunch of small losses, a few good trades, but a big number of small losses overcome positive trades.
  • #26
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:09pm Aug 13, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting Ged
it's history. In real time it's not that easy. In real time i usually encounter a bunch of small losses, a few good trades, but a big number of small losses overcome positive trades.
Then we come back to square 1,you need to change your method of trading,your entries are wrong,are you trading too a small time frame?
  • #27
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:13pm Aug 13, 2011 12:13pm
Open a demo acct and trade without any Take Profit level. Its easier than you think to clear at least 1:100 R:R trades.

The market is dynamic. Systems come and go as much as the people do.
  • #28
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:18pm Aug 13, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting Tedge UK
Then we come back to square 1,you need to change your method of trading,your entries are wrong,are you trading too a small time frame?
I'm trading on daily chart. Maybe my stops are too tight?
  • #29
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:25pm Aug 13, 2011 12:25pm
Quoting Ged
Will it ever stop? I mean, generation of new strategies?
Is it some kind of intellectual addiction of searching for the Holy Grail or what?

Forex is a zero sum game (a bit negative). There is no such strategy that never loses. You just have to have more positive trades than negative and when you lose you have to lose less than you win. Two goals only. And you will become a profitable trader.
The fact that you haven't yet discovered a strategy that does not lose does not mean that one (or a thousand) does not exist. You don't need both more positive trades and smaller losses than wins (though that helps), but your expectancy certainly needs to be positive, after transaction costs.
Quoting Ged
But i am afraid it's almost impossible. You have only ~49% of being right. Your mistakes, spread, swaps, commissions will eat alive your account sooner or later. And no strategy will help you.
Being right about what exactly? That cable will rally? When? to what level? before it reaches what other level?
You don't need a 51% of being right to be profitable in trading. Classic trend followers and breakout traders are wrong more often that they're right. They take many small losses before making some serious home runs.

And again, why do you insist "no strategy will help you"?
Quoting Ged
I'm now working on some kind of scalping the market with negative risk:reward ratio. Because 1:3 risk:reward ratio is not working. Lots of short trends wiped out my account.
If you think no strategy will help you, why do you even bother?
Are you sure it was short trends that wiped out your accounts? If you want to become a profitable trader, I suggest you start taking responsibility for your losses and stop blaming the market or its trends or their brevity. Perhaps you were risking too much? Perhaps your system was not properly tested before going live?
Quoting Ged
And what do you think about this article:

For the small investor there is only one way to trade Forex. Learn this simple trading method that works every time.
This is a bad joke. You start by saying no strategy will help you, and conclude with
Quoting Ged
this simple trading method that works every time.
This is exactly the right thing to do if you want to decrease your chances of success: enter random trades. OTOH, if you want to succeed, you need to find a bias, an edge. There are lots of those, and maybe that's part of the answer to your original question.

Good luck.
  • #30
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:33pm Aug 13, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting 6pack
The fact that you haven't yet discovered a strategy that does not lose does not mean that one (or a thousand) does not exist. You don't need both more positive trades and smaller losses than wins (though that helps), but your expectancy certainly needs to be positive, after transaction costs.

Being right about what exactly? That cable will rally? When? to what level? before it reaches what other level?
You don't need a 51% of being right to be profitable in trading. Classic trend followers and breakout traders are wrong more often...
now why is it I carnt put it that way
  • #31
  • Aug 13, 2011 1:00pm Aug 13, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting Ged
Will it ever stop? I mean, generation of new strategies?
Is it some kind of intellectual addiction of searching for the Holy Grail or what?
Why should it stop? So, are you against advancement?

Better not searching for new drugs treating diseases, new technologies, new micro-chips,...? Better we are just satisfied where we are, right? Advancement is bad, right?

You see, if we take your questions into other areas, they sound ridiculous. People are always searching for holy grails in all areas in life, that is why mankind advances.
Quoting Ged
Forex is a zero sum game (a bit negative). There is no such strategy that never loses. You just have to have more positive trades than negative and when you lose you have to lose less than you win. Two goals only. And you will become a profitable trader.
That is not the only way to make money. You can also only be 20% right and have massive winners vs. many small losers and still make money. Only newbs think that they need to be more often right than wrong. The real trading reality normally is that you are most of the time wrong (but you can still make money).

Quoting Ged
Put on your chart just one or maximum two indicators and trade, trade, trade until you master those two goals i mentioned.
But i am afraid it's almost impossible. You have only ~49% of being right. Your mistakes, spread, swaps, commissions will eat alive your account sooner or later. And no strategy will help you.
You are starting from a wrong angle. It always baffles me, how traders assume to become profitable, when they never do any real research. They just trade and trade, jumping every week to a new system and have absolutely no clue what the expectancy is of any system.

Yeah, doing statistical analyses is hard

Quoting Ged
By the way, i'm not profitable. No system helped me to become profitable. Those that i chose gave my money to brokers. I'm now working on some kind of scalping the market with negative risk:reward ratio. Because 1:3 risk:reward ratio is not working. Lots of short trends wiped out my account.
yeah, I already guessed that you are not profitable. Obviously you are not doing real research and just trade and think: "oh, maybe this can work, maybe I just need more screentime". All bullcrap if you ask me. You wanna become profitable? Do a real statistical analysis of the system you trade, look if it has a positive expectancy.

Quoting Ged
And what do you think about this article:

For the small investor there is only one way to trade Forex. Learn this simple trading method that works every time.
My assumption for the purposes of this writing is that you the reader have at least a general knowledge of Forex and a bit of Forex trading experience. Also you know that Forex is the largest market on the planet, and although one can quickly make a ton of cash; one can also lose everything in less than a flash.
Anyone who calls himself or herself a Forex trader knows the difficulties...
never read a crappier article. The strategy stated in this article is a SURE way to deplete your account.
  • #32
  • Aug 13, 2011 1:28pm Aug 13, 2011 1:28pm
Quoting Custos
Why should it stop? So, are you against advancement?

Better not searching for new drugs treating diseases, new technologies, new micro-chips,...? Better we are just satisfied where we are, right? Advancement is bad, right?

You see, if we take your questions into other areas, they sound ridiculous. People are always searching for holy grails in all areas in life, that is why mankind advances.

That is not the only way to make money. You can also only be 20% right and have massive winners vs. many small losers and still make money. Only newbs...
There is no Holy Grail in forex trading.

Long trends are extremely rare.

The expectancy of any system you can't know coz you cannot predict the future. You can tell that in the past it had positive or negative expectancy if you backtest the system but you'll never know what's gonna happen tomorrow.

Trends and backtesting are trader's fallacy. It's in your mind when you see what has happened but tomorrow you'll see a different picture.

I'm 99.99% sure that forex is a negative expected value game.
  • #33
  • Aug 13, 2011 1:32pm Aug 13, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting 6pack
Classic trend followers and breakout traders are wrong more often that they're right.
Good luck.
and you saw their statements, have their invest passwords and can track their trades. ok
  • #34
  • Aug 13, 2011 1:33pm Aug 13, 2011 1:33pm
Quoting Ged
There is no Holy Grail in forex trading.

Long trends are extremely rare.

The expectancy of any system you can't know coz you cannot predict the future. You can tell that in the past it had positive or negative expectancy if you backtest the system but you'll never know what's gonna happen tomorrow.

Trends and backtesting are trader's fallacy. It's in your mind when you see what has happened but tomorrow you see a different picture.

I'm 99.99% sure that forex is a negative expected value game.
Since you are already so sure, then why are you on this forum?

Obviously you can't know the future, but that is why statistical analysis is important. If you have a system that can operate within a variety of parameters and is profitable over 10,000+ trades per instrument across a variety of instruments, you can be very sure that the system you have at hand will also work in the future.

But it seems you are a lost cause. At least don't say bullcrap on this forum.
  • #35
  • Aug 13, 2011 2:26pm Aug 13, 2011 2:26pm
Quoting Ged
... There is no such strategy that never loses. You just have to have more positive trades than negative and when you lose you have to lose less than you win. Two goals only. And you will become a profitable trader.
I humbly submit that your premise is faulty.

You do not have to have more positive trades than negative trades. In fact, this is the thinking that gets so many traders in trouble. It is not surprising as it is ingrained in us in all other facets of life. Rather, to be a successful trader, one only has to win more on the winners than one loses on the losers.

A system or method of trading can be right 1 out of 10 times and still make money.

Win -$1,000.00
Loss-$100.00

Therefore this method could lose 9 times out of 10 and still be at a profit.

I know the next question will be, "what happens is the method experiences a period where there are 18 straight losses?". Well, this could happen (anything is possible). But the issue comes down to two factors. These factors are things many losing traders do not want to think about:

1. You have to have the mental discipline to take every trade as it comes. So you must be willing to take trade 19 or even trade 11. Because you simply don't know which one(s) will be the winners.

2. You have to have the CAPITAL to be around to make trade 19. Simply, under capitalization is the killer, not win/loss ratio. The way a trader makes money is to be around for the winners. One should assume the "home run" trade is always around the corner and not necessarily the next trade. The key is thus to be around when the trade comes. To do that, keep the losses small (not so much in occurrences as much as in actual capital depletion).
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36
  • Aug 13, 2011 2:42pm Aug 13, 2011 2:42pm
I think they said it's Oct 21st ?
  • #37
  • Edited 3:26pm Aug 13, 2011 3:09pm | Edited 3:26pm
Quoting HiddenGap
So you must be willing to take trade 19 or even trade 11. Because you simply don't know which one(s) will be the winners.
this is the main problem.

HiddenGap, how many pips could a reasonable stop loss be on the daily chart of Eur/usd?
  • #38
  • Aug 13, 2011 3:43pm Aug 13, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting orderphlow
I think they said it's Oct 21st ?
have you made your worthy donation to the scaremongerer like everyone did last time? clearly their contributions saved us all, since we are still here after the last predicted end of the world event! cause = effect. i'm not donating my money. instead i choose to sacrifice 2 goats and a goldfish. that should be enough to save at least myself from the end of existence for a little while longer.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #39
  • Edited 5:39pm Aug 13, 2011 3:55pm | Edited 5:39pm
Quoting Ged
I'm trading on daily chart. Maybe my stops are too tight?
Create and then guide yourself through others' suggestions with an idea of trading you made. Then, questions such as this one are easier to resolve.

For instance:


Take one candle. Stare at it. Take its balance, measure its high to low, guess where it goes next.
Add another candle. Do the same, until you're satisfied you have a reasonable answer. Sketch where you think price goes next.
Go to another time in the chart and repeat the procedure above.

After a while of repeating the procedure, you will know about how often you are right or wrong.
Much later, you will have gone through lots of types of markets and know where and how much to adjust your SL and TP.

Much, much later, you can formulate general theories about how you think trading works best, while adjusting one's studies with what one reads from others as well as with the results of one's own trades.
This is the nadir of most would-be traders' road to a career, and thus the best time to ask a profitable trader how to make that leap into making $. One can readily think of how to change one's method to adapt to their advice, without bothering them about wanting their method.


Best of luck in your search.
  • #40
  • Aug 13, 2011 5:49pm Aug 13, 2011 5:49pm
Quoting Ged
Long trends are extremely rare.
I have to disagree. In the Forex market there is always a bull or bear market somewhere. All you need is one.
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