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VWVB Daily Chart Analysis

  • #381
  • Mar 28, 2006 10:41am Mar 28, 2006 10:41am
I'm also long the AUDUSD haven't hit my stop yet but it isn't far away, also long EURUSD stop at BE and 1 position taken for profit +55 points, also went long on GBPUSD but got stopped at BE and went long on EURJPY with stop at BE and 1 position taken for profit +42 points.


Jon
  • #382
  • Edited 11:05am Mar 28, 2006 10:59am | Edited 11:05am
Hi!

First of all, congratulations to those, who hold some winning positions. I personally got stopped out with rather too tight stop for audusd. I think, that I was too nervous about FOMC, when setting my stop. Still donīt know, how it will affect the currencies, but it sure will be interesting to follow.
The other thing I wanted to point out...is it just me, or is the market last few days (week ago) indecisive? I hardly can see some opportunity - using only Vegas Daily (working fulltime).
Guess I have to work on my patience...

The market can be really interesting

Happy Trading to All of You!

bluefish

PS. any ideas about the FOMC decision???
  • #383
  • Mar 28, 2006 1:52pm Mar 28, 2006 1:52pm
any body else notice this. ah duh !
Attached Image
  • #384
  • Mar 28, 2006 2:09pm Mar 28, 2006 2:09pm
Boy its dropping made.

Why is anyone trading anything else but teh AUDUSD? Correct me if I am wrong but I dont see anything else to trade in compliance with VWBII
  • #385
  • Mar 28, 2006 2:20pm Mar 28, 2006 2:20pm
Quoting xspowerx
Boy its dropping made.

Why is anyone trading anything else but teh AUDUSD? Correct me if I am wrong but I dont see anything else to trade in compliance with VWBII
Just some info for you. not a recommendation.

[20:12 AUD/USD: Extends Recent Lows; Option Barriers Eyed] San Francisco, March 28. AUD/USD has retrenched toward yesterday"s lows of 0.7035 and the lowest levels since Sept 2004. Option defense is kicking at current levels with barriers reported at 0.7030 and 0.7000. Barrier size and related stops under 0.7000 are hinted to be massive that would trigger a full-on slide in the AUD if breached. Traders report bids still at 0.7040, 0.7030, 0.7020, 0.7015 and 0.7010, many in attempts to defend the larger option strikes at 0.7000.
| [ AUD/USD TRADING PAGE ]
| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION]
: 0.7265(M) |Dly Low Mar 17, 61.8% R |Take Profit | [FLAT at]
: 0.7220(M) |Daily High Mar 21 |Flat On A Failure | [0.7089]
: 0.7150(M) |Daily Low Mar 21 |Sell Failure, Buy Break |
: 0.7120(M) |Hourly Highs Mar 28 |Sell A Failure |Open|28/03/06

: 0.7035(M) |Pullback Low Mar 27 |Buy Bounce, Sell Break | |
: 0.6975(M) |Weekly Low Sep 20 04 |Cover On A Bounce |TGT |
: 0.6935(M) |Sept 15 04 Low |Cover On A Bounce |Stop|
: 0.6855(M) |Trend Low Sep 9 04 |Take Profit, Sell Break |
============|==========================|=========================|=============

Today"s blip up to the 1% MA env bottom at 0.7120. Daily studies remain heavily oversold so we are less keen on selling new lows but will do so with a tight stop if forced. Hourly studies are nearing oversold too, so we would prefer to sell a rally or even buy a bounce out of 0.7035.
  • #386
  • Mar 28, 2006 2:48pm Mar 28, 2006 2:48pm
Quoting Bemac
any body else notice this. ah duh !
Did you also notice if you do the price projection on that H&S, the price has completed the run...

You are right, that is textbook SMJ
  • #387
  • Mar 28, 2006 2:59pm Mar 28, 2006 2:59pm
I too got stopped out at BE on AUD/USD for the second time. I work a full-time job, so I have to trade in the evenings. My problem is that in this part of the world I need to go to bed before the US market opens, so I'm not online to manage any developing situations. I do trade the 4hr chart, but it doesn't matter how long the timeframe is that you're trading in, you are still just as vulnerable to a market shift unless you have a large trading account and take very small positions. I'd be interested to hear how more experienced traders handle this. If I was on my own, I'd move to another part of the country which is west of here....but I have to deal with "she who must be obeyed".
  • #388
  • Mar 28, 2006 3:08pm Mar 28, 2006 3:08pm
Quoting smjones
Did you also notice if you do the price projection on that H&S, the price has completed the run...

You are right, that is textbook SMJ
Sure SMJ,
That's why I posted it. You can find Lots of examples of H&S but not very many that are that complete. Especially when you are watching it live.

  • #389
  • Mar 28, 2006 3:33pm Mar 28, 2006 3:33pm
Quoting Bemac
Sure SMJ,
That's why I posted it. You can find Lots of examples of H&S but not very many that are that complete. Especially when you are watching it live.

Who needs VWB, Dow fortune tellers , Great Uncle Mortimer, When price unfolds like that. Were you able to get in on it?

SMJ
  • #390
  • Mar 28, 2006 3:45pm Mar 28, 2006 3:45pm
Quoting smjones
Who needs VWB, Dow fortune tellers , Great Uncle Mortimer, When price unfolds like that. Were you able to get in on it?

SMJ
Yes. and out. sweet trade.
  • #391
  • Mar 28, 2006 3:47pm Mar 28, 2006 3:47pm
Quoting Swami S
Hey Vinn, I,m with you although not so quiet 11.47 GMT
I think your right and i wait too for a new entry.Caught 30 pips so far but need a new position. Would hate to miss a big move after all this waitng.
I too will go long if it bounces at 7085.
Good luck Bat brother!
Are you still involed in the AUD or did you get cliped, I am still long put my stops @ .7035 . see if i can hold on till we see this reversal . LONG and STRONG!!!!!
  • #392
  • Mar 28, 2006 3:51pm Mar 28, 2006 3:51pm
Quoting Flyn
I too got stopped out at BE on AUD/USD for the second time. I work a full-time job, so I have to trade in the evenings. My problem is that in this part of the world I need to go to bed before the US market opens, so I'm not online to manage any developing situations. I do trade the 4hr chart, but it doesn't matter how long the timeframe is that you're trading in, you are still just as vulnerable to a market shift unless you have a large trading account and take very small positions. I'd be interested to hear how more experienced traders handle this. If I was on my own, I'd move to another part of the country which is west of here....but I have to deal with "she who must be obeyed".

Have a look at BWILC, it gives a trade time to breath .. you may find that AUD/US isnt the best trade for this method "at the moment" since it has been trending quite a bit, but if you are with the trend and willing to wait it out it would still work for you, xcept it means expanding your time frame to at least a day chart....

which is not to say that BWILC doesnt work with trends just expands the time frame somewhat..

regards
Rocket
  • #393
  • Mar 28, 2006 4:24pm Mar 28, 2006 4:24pm
yesterdays hammer formation was the cue to set up for a long entry, today test of the hammers low is futher conformation ,and it looks like a morning star candle today adding futher bullish reasoning . Just my observation
  • #394
  • Mar 28, 2006 4:32pm Mar 28, 2006 4:32pm
Quoting vinn234
yesterdays hammer formation was the cue to set up for a long entry, today test of the hammers low is futher conformation ,and it looks like a morning star candle today adding futher bullish reasoning . Just my observation
Much appreciated.. you are obviously a man of candles, what I am asking is why does the GBY/JPY foretell GBY/US ??
  • #395
  • Mar 28, 2006 4:34pm Mar 28, 2006 4:34pm
Quoting Rocket
Much appreciated.. you are obviously a man of candles, what I am asking is why does the GBY/JPY foretell GBY/US ??
sry, my post was ment for a diff thread!
  • #396
  • Mar 28, 2006 4:53pm Mar 28, 2006 4:53pm
Quoting vinn234
Are you still involed in the AUD or did you get cliped, I am still long put my stops @ .7035 . see if i can hold on till we see this reversal . LONG and STRONG!!!!!

Vinn, took a shot with small stop to minimise stress it got hit just having a look now again.....its punched the fib....it all seems a bit too Ausie to me. Their exports are rocking . As far as I can tell the whole world is unsure of itself lately.
50% rule went the wrong way today. I'm tempted to enter but for no good reason........
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #397
  • Mar 28, 2006 5:01pm Mar 28, 2006 5:01pm
Quoting Rocket
Have a look at BWILC, it gives a trade time to breath .. you may find that AUD/US isnt the best trade for this method "at the moment" since it has been trending quite a bit, but if you are with the trend and willing to wait it out it would still work for you, xcept it means expanding your time frame to at least a day chart....

which is not to say that BWILC doesnt work with trends just expands the time frame somewhat..

regards
Rocket
Hey Rocket, I know it is somewhat a sore spot on the forum, with the controversy, but have you been happy with BWILC book? Do you think it is worth the $70? I am thinking of buying it... thanks SMJ
  • #398
  • Mar 28, 2006 9:14pm Mar 28, 2006 9:14pm
Sorry for the ignorance, but "BWILC" is what exactly?
  • #399
  • Mar 28, 2006 9:42pm Mar 28, 2006 9:42pm
Quoting lonespruce
Sorry for the ignorance, but "BWILC" is what exactly?
The e book Bird Watching In Lion Country. It is a book by Dirk Du Toit about the retail FOREX market and training. HE is a trader from South Africa. I am given to understand that the book is very good. There was just a little confusion here at FF because of some downloads and copyright issues. But none of that was a reflection on the quality of this book.

If you are interested you can Google BWILC for more info.

SMJ
  • #400
  • Mar 28, 2006 9:48pm Mar 28, 2006 9:48pm
Quoting smjones
The e book Bird Watching In Lion Country. It is a book by Dirk Du Toit about the retail FOREX market and training. HE is a trader from South Africa. I am given to understand that the book is very good. There was just a little confusion here at FF because of some downloads and copyright issues. But none of that was a reflection on the quality of this book.

If you are interested you can Google BWILC for more info.

SMJ
Oops, I just realized I may be diluting the topic of this thread. That is not my intention. I am sorry.

SMJ
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