DislikedJust another trade here after US open
1:The TK/UK session inventory is short & the lower end the profile suggest minus development that could lead to inventory adjustment back up.
2:Reference is previous profile low & the prior NY low. Which was eventually tested after failing to auction downwards into this unfair level. In a way the range extension fail to auction lower & eventually reverse...
3:Target to 4200 (exposure reduced) & maybe 4250 or my 50ma vwap level..
4: Price could rally, perhaps back up to prominent TK/UK control price but...Ignored
Auction Market Theory and Market Profile
Took a set & forget trade today b4 i left from home as i cannot eyeball the trades so to speak.
1: NY session balance
2: Pre-TK session indicating auctioning & also responsive in nature relative to previous NY session (below VA)
3: TK opens with an opening auction, eventually see price fail to auction down wards as can be seen with the bottom flat ABE period, & pushing back up to opening price, I took my trade from here.
4: Single target to 4250, risk to 4148 & kept my fingers cross. Luck trade.
Current session US open withing Value, So i just wondering if the control price of TK/UK session provide the support but the opening unfolds into an auctioning rotation down to 1.5xIB or VAL. Price is now continuing to balance to previous curve. Yesterday's TK/UK session provide the upward control price target.
On the right chart shows the daily profile set to UK open. UK opens above VA & was initiated downwards (attracted) back into yesterdays POC (note the 45 degree of yesterdays slope of the curve) & bounce right off it. Indicating 4190 is the current control price.
1: NY session balance
2: Pre-TK session indicating auctioning & also responsive in nature relative to previous NY session (below VA)
3: TK opens with an opening auction, eventually see price fail to auction down wards as can be seen with the bottom flat ABE period, & pushing back up to opening price, I took my trade from here.
4: Single target to 4250, risk to 4148 & kept my fingers cross. Luck trade.
Current session US open withing Value, So i just wondering if the control price of TK/UK session provide the support but the opening unfolds into an auctioning rotation down to 1.5xIB or VAL. Price is now continuing to balance to previous curve. Yesterday's TK/UK session provide the upward control price target.
On the right chart shows the daily profile set to UK open. UK opens above VA & was initiated downwards (attracted) back into yesterdays POC (note the 45 degree of yesterdays slope of the curve) & bounce right off it. Indicating 4190 is the current control price.
- #3,066
- Edited Aug 10, 2011 5:16am Aug 9, 2011 11:22pm | Edited Aug 10, 2011 5:16am
We have one time framing on eur/usd 480 min chart, when is taken as a reference us close. Haw you guys would interpret this?
Thank's, sorin.
Maybe i share my thoughts on this wkly profile that i happen to marked yesterday. hope it helps...
3 wkly profiles here from left to right I will just call them A, B & C
Upside reference:
1: 4370 - this one is critical as profile B have been rejected before & currently price is making hesitation as we speak. So this control price of profile A is a potential conduit for upmove to be tested.
2: 4500 - the upper balance distribution area could be revisited.
3: Downside reference would be current value high area. Personally i mark the round number just below it at 4300. Potential pullback low.
4: Further downside ref: to DPOC & profile A's low if price deteriorates.
Note that so far there has not been any Range extension....yet.
Anyway i may be just scratching the surface as i m not as well verse using larger TF profiles.
- #3,067
- Edited Aug 10, 2011 12:00am Aug 9, 2011 11:49pm | Edited Aug 10, 2011 12:00am
Evak/Everyone else,
do you guys not consider the sydney session start? I take it your tokyo starts at 7pm est time?
I have mine start at 5pm till 3am for asian/euro/aussie then 3am till 930am for euro/us then 930-445pm for US/eu.....all times are eastern
do the above sound good for a three session split? or should I not be considering the aussie session?
Forex open & market open is different for TK & NY with exception of UK. Since forex opening time are base on the local market wall clock time starting from 8am-4pm (8 hours).
So forex opens for local time for TK at 7pm est. is actually TK's 8am. But the stock market opens at 9am or 8pm est. I prefer the latter.
Any thing after NY close & before TK opens I treat it as pre-TK. Due to lower volume traded one can only use it as indicative but can be useful only in context of other profiles.
European session i monitor both the Frankfurt open & UK open. 2 & 3am est respectively. UK session are prefer for most. But i do trade the Frankfurt opening price.
NY forex open at 8am est & stock market opens at 9.30am est. between these times i treat is as pre-NY as most critical news release is around 8.30am.
e.g of chart set to pre-tk, tk/uk combine chart & NY, broker on gmt+2
Incredible volatility, daily bars whipsaw within 90% range of value with a balance monthly developing profile. Trade location then should be within these extremes for now, before EU decides to make a move out of range & balance point to reach congestion breakout of triangle. Looking more upside then down. Oxford posted a quarterly profile recently showing last quarter's excess tested & gaining control of previous POC, worth a look.
- #3,072
- Aug 11, 2011 7:22am Aug 11, 2011 7:22am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2008 | 3,395 Posts
The Market pays you to be disciplined
- #3,078
- Aug 15, 2011 2:06pm Aug 15, 2011 2:06pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
Previously i spoke about the lack of range extension (RE) yet for the current developing BALANCE monthly profile. After moving back into the value area on E period, Price pause till today when it was push from the current mode towards 4450 level as can be seen from the "A" period. So could this be the move to extend the range? or revert back to rotation.
Looking at sessions profile we have seen 2 levels of minus development, as can be seen by spike prior to NY & NY session opening up flow. Perhaps this are the new capital flow entering the market...
Great charts and analysis!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #3,079
- Aug 16, 2011 12:14am Aug 16, 2011 12:14am
Gap up prior to TK open did not see it being taken out after TK open for the first 2 period. Price was initiated upwards prior TK & continue on after TK opens. Volume was rather slim as it it rally which eventually dip on weak demand.
My reference then are previous NY high & the gap zone high area. Waited for a reaction as it approaches the gap & it was shaken out with conviction (U period) which did not taken out NY high & most importantly the gap.
My entry was made. Target to 4350 & 4400, initial risk was 17 pips.
Interesting note...
