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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #10,041
  • Aug 3, 2011 6:18pm Aug 3, 2011 6:18pm
Saxon,

What are you views on the fundamental situation (how market movers will react) on the E/U.

Thanks,

P.S.
My new theme song

Inserted Video
Annoying Precision
  • #10,042
  • Edited 6:05am Aug 4, 2011 5:43am | Edited 6:05am
Hi Traders.
Sterling was hesitating entire Asian session.
Both bull and bears were playing kind of tag-of-war.
This is definitely a sign that momentum is exhausted and the pair needs some fresh fuel to jump start and decide were to go.

Important UK data ahead.
As always before “sterling news” there was some strange activity on GBP, mostly after London session opened.
By now GBPDKK is still testing top of its channel.
I’m still staying bearish, although I watch carefully on 12pm data coming from UK.
Any bad news will remain GBP in its channel.
Good news will kick GBP out of it and probably a new formation will develop.
It will be time to get out of the trade and my scenario will be denied.

Update 12:05, News neutral :-) and GBP still hesitating...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,043
  • Aug 4, 2011 10:27am Aug 4, 2011 10:27am
GBPDKK - As I was saying in my previous posts GBP was awaiting an impulse to move forward.
The impulse came from J.C. Trichet speech – ECB press conference.
Unfortunately for me it strengthened pound sterling and the price was kicked above 8.55 resistance line.
My stop loss left me with 0.25% loss.
The pair found new resistance, at this moment it’s around 8.60 zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,044
  • Aug 4, 2011 10:47am Aug 4, 2011 10:47am
This trade went much better.
After ECB press conference USD began to strengthen, moving my trade north.
At this moment I've got over 2% in profits.
Stop Loss moved up at breakeven…

I locked in some profits by closing half of the position.
Remember guys, tomorrow we have very important Non-Farm Employment and it will have a huge impact on all pairs, indexes and trades.
Anything can happen.
Non-Farm will definitely set up a future trend for next week or two.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,045
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:55am Aug 5, 2011 6:55am
Quoting erikte279
Saxon,

What are you views on the fundamental situation (how market movers will react) on the E/U.

Thanks,

P.S.
My new theme song

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUTXb...eature=related
I closed out most of my positions and deleted my limits the night before the releases. Today is friday so we'll see how much the market will try to take back. I think I am going to be on the sidelines today as well. there is too much uncertainty and soooooo many fundamental variables in the equation right now that it is hard to make a solid trade based mostly (90%+) on technicals.
How did your week go ?
  • #10,046
  • Aug 5, 2011 6:58am Aug 5, 2011 6:58am
Quoting halkins
This trade went much better.
After ECB press conference USD began to strengthen, moving my trade north.
At this moment I've got over 2% in profits.
Stop Loss moved up at breakeven…

I locked in some profits by closing half of the position.
Remember guys, tomorrow we have very important Non-Farm Employment and it will have a huge impact on all pairs, indexes and trades.
[font=Verdana]Anything can...
Good stuff. Ya, got data soon. Kinda like playing russian roulette trading yesterday and today.
Great job on your trades.
  • #10,047
  • Aug 5, 2011 7:00am Aug 5, 2011 7:00am
GCAD is at 1.6"00" by the way
  • #10,048
  • Edited 9:42am Aug 5, 2011 8:38am | Edited 9:42am
Hi traders.
NFP brought calm winds for weekend… Good :-)
Here is a quick review of my today’s trades:
I’ll be happy to hear any feedback

First one was EURCHF
(also posted on FF thread EURCHF so I just copied this...)

11:08 am
Asian session has build up stronger support at around 1.0750 zone
Below 1.0750 price quickly bounced up finding many buyers and since then price has been consequently moving on higher highs and higher lows.
Maybe I am crazy but I am looking now for a good entry point to go LONG around 1.0800 and looking forward to target @ 1.1000 (…)

1:50pm
Well, 20 minutes after Non-Farm payroll, enough for markets to calm down I jumped into the train and went LONG. Yeah…
NFP was positive so it gives more strength to my trade. We’ll see…
I keep very tight stop loss, little bit below short term support line.
If my pair hits first target @ 1.0900 I’ll close half of my position.
I’ll let the rest run free over weekend as my stops will be set on breakeven…

UPdate:
3:40pm STOP LOSS triggered. Fortunately at breakeven

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,049
  • Edited 10:21am Aug 5, 2011 9:01am | Edited 10:21am
AUDUSD is much oversold, falling down nearly 6% from beginning of August.
So this is definitely THE time for Bears to take their profits and enjoy their gains.

I think today’s Non Farm will weaken US Dollar for a while and it will give us a chance to go LONG for a short period of time.
I opened my trade @ 1.04374 near the bottom line, but closing half after 0.30% profits.
Yes… I "panicked" before NFP publication and wanted to secure my stops at breakeven ASAP.
Now I let it all run, hoping to reach target at 1.0600 or even higher at 1.0700, creating this way a nice opportunity for 3.50% profits.

But be careful as price may also drop down to 1.0400 and begin its march to the north right there. So watch carefully

Update
4:20pm Stop Loss Triggered - breakeven point... ;-(

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,050
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:46am Aug 7, 2011 10:46am
worth your time


http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7725BC20110807
  • #10,051
  • Aug 8, 2011 1:21am Aug 8, 2011 1:21am
Quoting Saxon
worth your time


http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7725BC20110807

Be wary (Monday) of irrational depression as markets take flight," said Justin Urquhart Stewart, a director at Seven Investment Management in London. "We are dealing with the knowns and not the unknowns, but what we have a shortage of at the moment is political leadership."

I think this says it all ... Check the gold chart.. Time to be a bit quite.. I think..
  • #10,052
  • Aug 8, 2011 4:53am Aug 8, 2011 4:53am
Hello guys this is my GBPCHF view >

Inserted Video


Cheers
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #10,053
  • Aug 9, 2011 3:42pm Aug 9, 2011 3:42pm
Been super busy so havent posted in a while. Took a lot on AU and NU. Stopped out on first fib on daily NU but took it back plus a bunch on stacked position on the next fib, which was also a confluence.
This is my only position now.
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  • #10,054
  • Aug 9, 2011 3:56pm Aug 9, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello guys this is my GBPCHF view >

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TAWZT0qTjc

Cheers
Petar
How's it going Petar ?
Dude, you're getting professional with the videos I'm impressed
  • #10,055
  • Aug 12, 2011 2:52pm Aug 12, 2011 2:52pm
Sorry for the delayed response Todd, was super tired after our golf. Here is the stuff I told you about:

1st things first, I only trade on H1+ timeframes. Sometimes you’ll see and M30 on there, but that is only to show my entry, but no trades are based on it.
I like to first start out by opening my daily chart semi-panned out and draw some significant fibs.
Then I go to my H4 chart and do the same. Repeat again with my H1 chart. Then, go to your H4 chart and see if any of the fibs line up.
Next, I place line on large round “00” numbers, like 1.5, 2, 2.5 etc… you get what I’m saying.
Then I do the same thing by placing horizontal lines on obvious support and resistance, basically the high and lows and swing peaks.
You should have some lines that cross each other now, or are really close to it. You can then derive some strong PPZs based on this. The more narrow your PPZ, the tighter your stops are going to be as block orders will be consolidated together. Say for example Goldman has a Daily chart where it plans to buy at fib 38; say a yard or two. Then say Deutsche is watching an H4 chart and is placing it’s buy on fib 61, based on a smaller swing. When you are looking at an H4 chart and you can see both of those lines, drawn from different swings, and they are very close together, you can be sure that all of the institutions like Deutsche and all of the institutions trading like Goldman, are all trading in the same small area. So now, you can probably start to see where I am going to go next. The smaller/narrower the PPZ is, the greater chance of a strong friction. All of the bank orders will be placed around the same area, so you can keep your stop relatively tight. Now let’s take the flip side, say those two banks are trading further apart. Say the Deutsche orders get hit first. This might just slow the market, but not turn it. The price will continue on its journey until it comes to the Goldman orders on the other fib. Now, with the Goldman orders added to the pot, there is enough pressure to move the market the other way. So in this case, your stops would need to be behind goldman, and your entry before deutsche. This could be a wide range and not within your risk parameters.
Here are a few charts to show you where I am, not relating to the fibs above though, those were hypothetical.
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  • #10,056
  • Aug 13, 2011 1:50am Aug 13, 2011 1:50am
Quoting Saxon
Sorry for the delayed response Todd, was super tired after our golf. Here is the stuff I told you about:

1st things first, I only trade on H1+ timeframes. Sometimes you’ll see and M30 on there, but that is only to show my entry, but no trades are based on it.
I like to first start out by opening my daily chart semi-panned out and draw some significant fibs.
[size=3][font=Calibri]Then I go to my H4 chart and do the same. Repeat again with my H1 chart. Then, go to your H4 chart...
this is one of the top 10 posts in the history of ff.
guys, newbies, traders ... read this stuff over and over again.
combine this with classic chart patterns and candlesticks or whatever suits you. success is (nearly) guaranteed.
thanks saxon. rock on!
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #10,057
  • Aug 13, 2011 7:58am Aug 13, 2011 7:58am
Quoting Saxon
Sorry for the delayed response Todd, was super tired after our golf. Here is the stuff I told you about:
1st things first, I only trade on H1+ timeframes. Sometimes you’ll see and M30 on there, but that is only to show my entry, but no trades are based on it(...)
I do my trades similarly ... however for me support/resistance lines, swing highs and lows are major factors in decision making.
I pick max 2, 3 pairs with most favorite setup every morning and I leave them for further watching. I DON’T follow any other pairs.
Then I keep observing them on smaller and smaller time frames and WAIT until all setups line up like those plums or apples on slot machine in casino.
It’s like hunting, waiting for your prey to get closer.
Fairly… this is fkcing boring but I’ve had learnt hard lesson that patience pays back. I don’t want to jump into the trade too early.
This is a good time for me to read FF and post some comments… ;-)
IF I couldn't find enough factors to push me into the trade, I leave the table. Tomorrow’s another day.


----
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #10,058
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:24am Aug 13, 2011 11:24am
Quoting aserbfx
this is one of the top 10 posts in the history of ff.
guys, newbies, traders ... read this stuff over and over again.
combine this with classic chart patterns and candlesticks or whatever suits you. success is (nearly) guaranteed.
thanks saxon. rock on!
Thanks for those kind comments aserbfx, you made my day
I'm glad to share my thoughts and opinions and also to learn from eveyone here as well. Hope you and everyone here has a great weekend
  • #10,059
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:31am Aug 13, 2011 11:31am
Quoting halkins
I do my trades similarly ... however for me support/resistance lines, swing highs and lows are major factors in decision making.
I pick max 2, 3 pairs with most favorite setup every morning and I leave them for further watching. I DON’T follow any other pairs.
Then I keep observing them on smaller and smaller time frames and WAIT until all setups line up like those plums or apples on slot machine in casino.
[color=black][font=Verdana]It’s...

Ya, Patience is one of the most important but also one of the hardest skills to learn. But it pays off too. I still set my limits about 5-20 pips in front of my targets, depending on the time frame; at least the standard spread. If it is a very high prob target, I'll set my limit equivalent to the spread during volatile market conditions. Say my average spread on EU is 1.5 pips. During volatile markets, the spread can be 6-10, so that is my "volatile spread", and i use that to gauge my limit entry on important trades.

I really like you last comment and couldn't agree with it more, you were spot on "IF I couldn't find enough factors to push me into the trade, I leave the table. Tomorrow’s another day."
  • #10,060
  • Aug 13, 2011 4:28pm Aug 13, 2011 4:28pm
Quoting Saxon
How's it going Petar ?
Dude, you're getting professional with the videos I'm impressed
Thanks Saxon friend,
These two weeks was bad for me to be honest,price didnt resepct much volumes and chanles but as you know i keep risk 1.5 % per position and on that way i procetct balance for bad period than when good period comes just take profits ...
Goal is profit at end of year


How are you Saxon ?

Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
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