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VWVB Daily Chart Analysis

  • #361
  • Mar 27, 2006 10:50pm Mar 27, 2006 10:50pm
Quoting iboersma
AUD/USD looks like it may be heading North with a very distinct hammer marking the bottom of its extended downmove and the beginnings of a solid bullish daily candle.

Anyone thinking of jumping in long before the FOMC release tomorrow? I've had terrible luck trying to trade on news days, much less FOMC days...

- Ian
Let's hope! I'm long so... Let the music play
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #362
  • Mar 27, 2006 11:32pm Mar 27, 2006 11:32pm
My thoughts for today. I'm going to sit out the FOMC tomorrow, even though I have a reversal signal on audusd. Good luck longs. I'm too chicken.

Wondering if eurchf bounces off the 4H 55 MA... The scalper in me wants to take profits, but I'm forcing myself to resist and watch price action.
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File Type: zip VWB Daily Analysis.zip   3 KB | 343 downloads
  • #363
  • Mar 28, 2006 12:11am Mar 28, 2006 12:11am
Quoting iboersma
AUD/USD looks like it may be heading North with a very distinct hammer marking the bottom of its extended downmove and the beginnings of a solid bullish daily candle.

- Ian
I thought, a higher interest rate in the us might weaken the aud. So i thought
about gettin' short.
  • #364
  • Mar 28, 2006 4:37am Mar 28, 2006 4:37am
Quoting tojoko
I thought, a higher interest rate in the us might weaken the aud. So i thought
about gettin' short.
Look , my opinion is that US rates are already priced in @ this point , Attention is being deverted to the ECB rate bias , that rate diferential is not in play anymore with the major i.e. eur, gbp, aud, the majors look like they are taking on there own economic intrest they are less conected to $$$$$$$ . So I am currently 5:33 am est loking to go long the AUD @ .7085 the AUD is starting to come off its high of the Asian session .. Any feed back from you guys is always a plus ..... I need the company it Quiet @ 3:00am est if you know wat i mean.
  • #365
  • Mar 28, 2006 4:49am Mar 28, 2006 4:49am
Hey Vinn, I,m with you although not so quiet 11.47 GMT
I think your right and i wait too for a new entry.Caught 30 pips so far but need a new position. Would hate to miss a big move after all this waitng.
I too will go long if it bounces at 7085.
Good luck Bat brother!
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #366
  • Mar 28, 2006 5:08am Mar 28, 2006 5:08am
Quoting Swami S
Hey Vinn, I,m with you although not so quiet 11.47 GMT
I think your right and i wait too for a new entry.Caught 30 pips so far but need a new position. Would hate to miss a big move after all this waitng.
I too will go long if it bounces at 7085.
Good luck Bat brother!
Good to know somebody is with me !!! Hope your trades go well !
  • #367
  • Mar 28, 2006 6:38am Mar 28, 2006 6:38am
Quoting vinn234
Good to know somebody is with me !!! Hope your trades go well !
I can see both sides to the argument about going long or short. I'm actually still waiting, but may jump in soon.

My rationale for going long is as follows:

1) the 25 bp rate hike is already priced in

2) AUD has been seriously shorted for some time now and I think (I may be very wrong) that, even with a bit of hinting from Bernanke about going to 5% the AUD/USD will be affected less than most other USD pairs

3) based on the fact that the pair has already started to turn up, the LONG sentiment seems to be stronger at this point

Again, this is only my opinion.

- Ian
  • #368
  • Mar 28, 2006 6:44am Mar 28, 2006 6:44am
Does anybody know Bernanke? Just give him a call...
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #369
  • Mar 28, 2006 6:48am Mar 28, 2006 6:48am
Quoting dof
Does anybody know Bernanke? Just give him a call...
He's probably just sobering up from his all-night FOMC rave party by now... Let me see if I've got his cell...
  • #370
  • Mar 28, 2006 6:57am Mar 28, 2006 6:57am
Quoting dof
Does anybody know Bernanke? Just give him a call...

Why dont you call, and let me know wat he told you!
  • #371
  • Mar 28, 2006 6:58am Mar 28, 2006 6:58am
Quoting vinn234
Why dont you call, and let me know wat he told you!
Man, we had an argue, and we don't speek anymore... sorry
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #372
  • Mar 28, 2006 6:59am Mar 28, 2006 6:59am
Quoting vinn234
Why dont you call, and let me know wat he told you!
The cell service is pretty poor here and what with Bernanke's Mad-Dog 20/20 induced slurred speech, I couldn't make out if he said interest rates were going to "soar like a comet" or "need to find a bathroom and vomit". :

Strange guy, that Bernanke...
  • #373
  • Mar 28, 2006 6:59am Mar 28, 2006 6:59am
Quoting dof
Man, we had an argue, and we don't speek anymore... sorry
yeah, yeah !!
  • #374
  • Mar 28, 2006 8:02am Mar 28, 2006 8:02am
Dear All;

I just wonder if anyone from the experienced traders can - if his time allows - just explain the three rules made by Vegas in his daily trading method. I really didn't get it from his document and I think it might need paraphrasing or so.
That's very important for me!!
Thanks;

Ahmad
  • #375
  • Mar 28, 2006 9:14am Mar 28, 2006 9:14am
Man I got stopped out on the AUDUSD. This currency is to volatile...

Anyone else go long on it last night?
  • #376
  • Mar 28, 2006 9:28am Mar 28, 2006 9:28am
Quoting xspowerx
Man I got stopped out on the AUDUSD. This currency is to volatile...

Anyone else go long on it last night?
Yeah I did, got in at 7078, moved stop to be this morning to BE.
Stopped out at BE, I have with the stop out, no cost to me.

On the last try going long at 7150 area I lost an arm and a leg setting the stop way to low at .7124 then moving even lower thinking for sure it was a done since it was way past the fib of interest and at the extrem fib, last time it was this low was in 2004.

Now just just watching now for a more confirmed entry who knows could get a better price with today's FOMC the thing could tank and swing like crazy.
  • #377
  • Mar 28, 2006 10:02am Mar 28, 2006 10:02am
Quoting xspowerx
Man I got stopped out on the AUDUSD. This currency is to volatile...

Anyone else go long on it last night?
yes, still holding the position hope it will bull by tommorow , i also have another short on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF

have a nice trade
  • #378
  • Mar 28, 2006 10:07am Mar 28, 2006 10:07am
Quoting b0n4r
yes, still holding the position hope it will bull by tommorow , i also have another short on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF

have a nice trade
I got stopped out on the Ozzie as well. Ouch...
  • #379
  • Mar 28, 2006 10:12am Mar 28, 2006 10:12am
Also went long aud/usd (and short eur/aud) yesterday in demo, my first vegas trade in demo. Closed one position a/u 40 pips then got stopped out break even. Waiting for another opportunity later (fomc?).

Don't see any other opportunity at the moment...
  • #380
  • Mar 28, 2006 10:23am Mar 28, 2006 10:23am
Quoting JSC77
Also went long aud/usd (and short eur/aud) yesterday in demo, my first vegas trade in demo. Closed one position a/u 40 pips then got stopped out break even. Waiting for another opportunity later (fomc?).

Don't see any other opportunity at the moment...

You know, that is interesting, because I also went long on Sunday with 3 on a pseudo 4h tunnel trade and my first was closed at the tunnel for +40 and my second and third I stopped when after the GBPUSD reached a 61.8% retracement of the previous top and backed back down to 50% retracement. I guess I just got spooked by the FOMC, and no time left for momentum.

SMJ
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