Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Agree Start - I went with the 'local' currency for ease of managing. The intervention is usually wasted money in my eyes. The large intervention back a few months ago was 'faded' as I guess it creates an inbalance in the market. I think the same thing will happen again.

I would imagine we are in for a big bear market bounce in stocks at some stage as the 200 DMA comes into play again, before a lower high and roll over into the new trend - down. I wonder if Parachute Ben has any ammo left in his arsenal to implement QE3?

Good afternoon all,

Looks like eurnzd is getting set-up for something nice.. away from all the BOJ noise.
Next week maybe? lets see how nzdusd behaves.
bon weekend

gb

I will be looking for ways to sell the usdjpy over the next week (s) , although those long tailed candles quite scare me off.
hopefully low risk PA will allow an enterance.

gb

I have been really annoyed with my self this week and I wrote some scathing entries in my diary regarding my equity trading performance today and last week.

I have been waiting for ages for the indices to tip over and there have been plenty of chart signals. I have been telling folks on the MBA how we were all doomed and this correction would take us back to the 08 lows. I was short after the double top and BEEB on 27 July but I got scared and stopped out by the kinda hammer off the weekly 50ema and rising TL. I placed a stop above that and the stop was taken to the pip more of less(Point 1 on chart). I then missed out on the biggest down day since 09 the next day.

The dojo /hammer looking bar after NFP on Friday left me away from the action but I tried to be smart and placed a limit order buy at the 61% retrace into that bar (point 2). Needless to say I was filled and stopped out after S&P decided to downgrade the US debt at the weekend; my broker price gapped down some 2.6% from the Fri close!

So, I made another mistake and went looking for some confirmation bias that we were near a turning point for a trip back up to the broken TL and 200dma. I found a few like minded Blogs and convinced myself we were due a bounce and that we were oversold. I then dropped to the 15M chart today to try and pick a bottom around the SR level at Point 3 because I was annoyed at being shaken out last week. Needless to say we all know how this ended and I ended up losing 5% of my account balance.

ZeroHedge ran a piece today saying this down move has a lot of short traders caught out on the sidelines as they were waiting for a lower high after the TL break. That could still be ahead of us and we could see a 100point rally day in the S&P should Ben come out and rumour QE3. But there is a chance this could not take place.

I guess I still need to shake the top and bottom fishing demons. Even after having a successful run of late its amazing how it can all go out of the window thru anger and fear of missing out still. The cardinal sin was dropping to the 15M TF and ignoring the down trend day in front of me. I'm annoyed because I did not stick to my stop strategy on the way down. I was scared at giving back profits - this shows I had not fully accepted the outcome of the trade or possible loss.

I write all this as a warning to others. The market is always right and if you think you know better based on info, blogs, news etc then forget it. You are probably better fading your views!!!

I think there is more selling to come in stocks, all the indices have closed near the session lows, but surprisingly EU and GU are still holding 142 & 163 levels.

I really appreciate the long term emphasis as I too CANNOT watch and sweat out a few trades and then look at the positions I had over the medium / longer term; Can you offer any input on the GBP/CHF ? ( I am thinking its ready for a big move south)

Strat shadow trade. Plan the trade, trade the plan. First position closed, second position stopped out @ BE. It's really a beast, 100 pips in a few minutes.

Oh Danny boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling……………….! (or should it be the KNIVES?)

Thank you for posting this as it is a WARNING for other like minded wannabe traders and self professed Market Gurus.

I really thought you had learned, UNDERSTOOD and moved on from all this!

I have been really annoyed with my self this week and I wrote some scathing entries in my diary regarding my equity trading performance today and last week.

Good! Here are some more:

I have been waiting for ages for the indices to tip over and there have been plenty of chart signals.

You are BACK to picking tops and bottoms! You said you had got over this – YOU HAVEN’T!

Read and re-read Dr. Joe AGAIN.

Forget trying to identify tops and bottoms. The so called “experts” and “self professed experts” can’t do it so what makes YOU think YOU can do it?

The Market TELLS us when there is a top and bottom WITHOUT trying to guess it!

Your problem is that YOU want to be IN at the TOP of a sell off and at the BOTTOM of a buy move. FORGET IT – you will NEVER do it!

Read and re-read my posts on trend trades – we are only interested in the 75% / 85% of the trend or the “MEAT” of the trend – the other 15% / 25% is where traders LOSE a lot of money.


I have been telling folks on the MBA how we were all doomed and this correction would take us back to the 08 lows.

So now YOU are a self proclaimed MARKET GURU! Drop the EGO and let others make FOOLS of themselves! Just get on QUIETLY with your trading – it is much more profitable and better for your Little People.

I was short after the double top and BEEB on 27 July but I got scared and stopped out by the kinda hammer off the weekly 50ema and rising TL. I placed a stop above that and the stop was taken to the pip more of less(Point 1 on chart). I then missed out on the biggest down day since 09 the next day.

You are trading with SCARED money and SCARED confidence! You need to allow your trades to BREATHE especially a market as VOLATILE as this – your SL should have gone above the LAST swing high where, had you done, you wouldn’t be writing this.

If you can’t AFFORD the SL in your MM, then DON”T trade.

The dojo /hammer looking bar after NFP on Friday left me away from the action but I tried to be smart and placed a limit order buy at the 61% retrace into that bar (point 2). Needless to say I was filled and stopped out after S&P decided to downgrade the US debt at the weekend; my broker price gapped down some 2.6% from the Fri close!

YOU placed a BUY order in a Market that was dropping faster than the local hooker can drop her knickers?

So now, you are “so good” that YOU think you can catch the falling knife!

What does it feel like to stand in the middle of a freeway with 6 lanes of 18 wheeler trucks hurtling at you at 70mph?

What happened to my teachings on “follow the big boys?”

So, I made another mistake and went looking for some confirmation bias that we were near a turning point for a trip back up to the broken TL and 200dma. I found a few like minded Blogs

This is one of YOUR major FAILINGS Danny boy.

You don’t have enough CONFIDENCE in YOU and YOUR trading so you have to go SEARCHING for what others are doing.

I told you many times about this and you even posted that you had stopped doing it but I guess old HABITS die hard.

I am constantly reminding our members on www.stratsforextrading.com on the dangers of this and only recently posted this for them:

‘’There is a latent desire in all of us for being RIGHT, and calling the END to
trends satisfies that desire. We have to fight this desire because being RIGHT is
emotional and, in most cases, not profitable.

This is made worse by the many threads, forums, amateurs, newbies and “self professed experts” who instill into our minds that price turns on major swings – major highs and major lows.

I was in this mindset for a long time and it took a huge effort to change it. Even
now, I still catch myself thinking the end is near.

My advice to all is to stay away from the threads, forums, money tv, newsletters, talking heads etc and form your OWN belief.’’


and convinced myself we were due a bounce and that we were oversold.

How do YOU know when a Market is oversold? What is the definition of an over sold market? Do you think Dr. Joe cared or even thought about oversold?

The Market Gurus, Talking Heads, ‘’So Called Experts’’, ‘’Self Proclaimed Experts’’ etc have been talking for months how EURCHF, GBPCHF and USDCHF are OVERSOLD. Do you think our members on www.stratsforextrading.com who are sat with quadruple pips profit care about whether they are oversold or not?

Did the Market tell you this? NO! YOU were guessing! Guessing is GAMBLING.

GAMBLING is NOT trading and is NOT taught on this thread.

We follow the footprints left behind by the big boys.

I then dropped to the 15M chart today

If you CAN’T do it on the Worker, what makes you think you can do it on M15 which is 96 times FASTER?

There are MORE accounts LOST trading these short time frames than any others PLUS you are more vulnerable and visible to the brokers and big boys who are looking to pick off gullible traders like YOU.

to try and pick a bottom

Stick to picking your nose instead – much less expensive!

LEAVE top and bottom picking to those who have LOTS of money to LOSE and NO DISCIPLINE or PATIENCE.

around the SR level at Point 3 because I was annoyed at being shaken out last week.

When the big boys are on a mission, they do not care where SR is, all they know is WHERE they are going to DRIVE price.

If you were able to SEE BEYOND THE CANDLES, you would know that this trend would take out SR and ANYTHING standing in its way.

FOLLOW THE BIG BOYS, NOT YOUR EMOTIONS (Little People in YOUR head)

Needless to say we all know how this ended and I ended up losing 5% of my account balance.

At least you followed your MM rules otherwise this could have been much worse.

ZeroHedge ran a piece today saying this down move has a lot of short traders caught out on the sidelines as they were waiting for a lower high after the TL break.

Who the hell are Zerohedge? Are they the big boys? Do they have the information the big boys have – NO! You are a SUCKER and an ADDICT for all this newsletter and talking heads crap.

Do you think the big boys read useless newsletters or could it be that they just trade what the Market in front of them tells them?

Do you think Professional Traders and those trading for a living read newsletters and listen to talking heads who are PAID to write and talk whether it is true or not? NO!

YOU will NEVER succeed in trading for a living UNTIL you LEARN to trade YOUR OWN SKILLS and BELIEFS.

I really think you are trying to impress everyone with your Newsletters and beliefs from reading them – NOBODY CARES! What counts is making money from trading NOT reading worthless crap written by money making Newsletter publishers or creating an impression.

Quit all your subscriptions to these useless publications and put that money in your trading account.

LEARN to trade YOUR OWN SKILLS and BELIEFS.

That could still be ahead of us and we could see a 100point rally day in the S&P should Ben come out and rumour QE3. But there is a chance this could not take place.

How do YOU KNOW? Are you a big boy? What good does it do thinking this? Can you trade this?

Do YOU think the Market cares what YOU think? The Market will do whatever the driving sentiment is from the big boys and is often opposite to what most amateurs think.

YOU have read so many newsletters and listened to so many talking heads on Money TV that YOU are now THINKING, TALKING and WRITING like them!

Maybe you should become a Newsletter writer or a talking head instead of trying to become a trader?

I guess I still need to shake the top and bottom fishing demons. Even after having a successful run of late its amazing how it can all go out of the window thru anger and fear of missing out still. The cardinal sin was dropping to the 15M TF and ignoring the down trend day in front of me. I'm annoyed because I did not stick to my stop strategy on the way down. I was scared at giving back profits - this shows I had not fully accepted the outcome of the trade or possible loss

Much, much worse than the above paragraph, Danny boy. You have gone back to your old BAD habits as a losing trader. It would not surprise me one little bit to know that you are trading with indicators again!

And what happened to NOT TRADING AGAIN until you have finished your MBA?

NO DISCIPLINE, Danny boy, NO DISCIPLINE!

I write all this as a warning to others. The market is always right and if you think you know better based on info, blogs, news etc then forget it. You are probably better fading your views!!!

How do you trade fading your views, is this a new method you have learned from your Newsletters or Money TV?

Thanks for writing this but readers are BETTER trading what THEY see on THEIR charts by following the big boys rather than fading views.

Oh how you have FALLEN off The Path, Danny boy! Is there any hope for YOU?

It's only a beast if traders don't know how to handle it.

It's at strong support across all 3 time frames so we have to WAIT.

I don't go on your threads promoting my thread so I do not appreciate you coming on here promoting yours under the guise of asking for information whereas on your thread you are proclaiming to be an expert

People like you get BANNED!

Strat,
Thanks kindly for setting me right again. I did indeed slip into old habits yesterday and I knew you would be disappointed and set me straight with a bollocking!

The major lessons for me in all this has been to stop reading the news and blogs again. In think this started again due to the degree and the research I was conducting took me back to the macro economics writings! Dropping to a lower TF was also a huge sin against my plan. This will not be happening again; I went to bed with a headache after writing my diary entry last night as I was very stern with myself. I fell for the classic over exuberance trap after a spate of wins thinking I was better than the market. How very very silly. ;-(

But Danny, you have written this same post many times before yet you keep on going back and doing the same BAD things. There is a fundamental flaw in your character which is your weakness. You must identify this and make it your top priority not to let it RULE you. You must do something DIFFERENT or you will keep doing this over and over again.

And take off that stupid oscillator which is making you think oversold and overbought! I haven't the desire to put one on but I dare bet one of my accounts that they have been ''''oversold'''' for months on EURCHF, GBPCHF and USDCHF and ''''overbought'''' on CHFJPY.

Thanks Strat. I need to seek out and conquer this flaw that shows up every now and again.

I do not use indicators at all - only the MAs - the 'oversold' statement was from one of the websites that I was reading. I'll never go back to putting an indicator on my charts after your fine teaching! At least some things got through! Plus I was convinced that a 15% stretch above the 200dma was overbought in gold, playing the elastic band theroy.

The one rule that I broke that would have kept me out of this mess was:

'Never trade CT unless there has been a prior significant TL break and LH/HL'.

I sold the oversold EURCHF, GBPCHF and USDCHF last week and just closed all of them now with 2500 pips in the kitty.

I am planning to sell them again as Dr Joe says " KEEP SELLING UNTIL IT STOPS GOING DOWN"

OK, Danny boy, I still have both barrels pointing at you. As I have said before, you remind me so much of myself when I was losing $thousands on futures and commodities. I didn't have anybody like me to give it to me straight which is what I needed and what I believe, you need.

‘’’’the 'oversold' statement was from one of the websites that I was reading’’’’.

This is another area you are not addressing. STOP seeking advice and looking for what others are doing. If you are ever going to make it trading for a living you have to STAND ON YOUR OWN TWO FEET and believe in YOU and YOUR method and have the courage of YOUR convictions to trade what YOU see on YOUR charts and NOT what others think.

These websites you visit are littered with rookies, newbies, amateurs who DON'T HAVE A CLUE what they are doing. YOU already KNOW more than ALL these people and websites put together. The newsletters and so called professional (read money making) websites you read are written by people who are PAID to write ANYTHING that is in the news and gets peoples’ attentions. Most of them don't trade and don't have a clue which way is up or down. Look at Van Tharp, probably the best book selling author on trading yet he DOESN’T TRADE! He couldn’t trade his way out of a paper bag yet he sells THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS of books telling others how to trade.

You are in the RAF so consider this:

If you wanted to learn how to fly a jet, would you learn from an instructor with over 20 years experience of flying jets or learn from a guy that just read a book on how to fly a jet?

STOP READING WEBSITES, NEWSLETTERS, MONEY TV etc and FOCUS on trading YOUR skills, YOUR knowledge, YOUR experience, YOUR method.

YOU are the CEO of your own trading company. Do you think the CEO of GMC goes to the CEO of Ford and asks him how he runs his company?

TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OWN TRADING AND ACTIONS and the rewards (profit) will come and you will NEVER need to look elsewhere.

Plus I was convinced that a 15% stretch above the 200dma was overbought in gold, playing the elastic band theory.

REMOVE the words “oversold” and “overbought” from your trading vocabulary.

There is NO SUCH THING AS OVERSOLD or OVERBOUGHT IN TRADING!

Why 15%? Has this reliably and consistently pulled back after 15%? NO!
STOP putting limits on moves that are not there!.

LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE – you were so focused on the Worker and one country that you didn’t SEE the BIG PICTURE. ALL the World Stock Markets were SHORT at the same time.

You thought you saw an opportunity to make big fast profits – the GREEDY Little People are controlling you! CONTROL your Little People, do NOT let the Little People CONTROL you

LEARN to READ the SENTIMENT of the big boy buyers and sellers

The one rule that I broke that would have kept me out of this mess was:

'Never trade CT unless there has been a prior significant TL break and LH/HL'.

Sorry but NO, IT WOULDN'T! It will keep on happening until YOU address YOUR psychological issues (Little People)

PLUS, do NOT attempt CT until you are a MASTER of trend trading – even then, trade CT with MINIMUM RISK and REDUCED positions

This ‘’’’should’’’’ have kept you out of this mess:

LEARN to READ the SENTIMENT of the big boy buyers and sellers

There is SO MUCH MORE money to be made trading trends that YOU, or anyone else, do NOT need to CT trade PROVIDING you have PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE which, sadly, you are lacking.
__________________
Trade less and become more profitable!

Why do you have this statement in your signature when YOU do NOT follow it? If you followed this statement you would only take trades in the direction of the trend.

Quit the bravado, the ego and the image and GET BACK on The Path.

All the brothers out there will trade today candles. This is a good time to test your discipline. Let the market settle down. Practice number one rule.

As I expected, all the brothers traded yesterday PA bars got killed. If you are students this thread and follow Strat teaching, you know a lot of time there will be inside bars after big bar or just barely break of the big bar and come back in inside. This is a real time examples.

(but I wish I'd thought of that one!)

More, looking for this:



Been away for a while.

Now need to try and work out what's going on...

I haven't the desire to put one on but I dare bet one of my accounts that they have been ''''oversold'''' for months on EURCHF, GBPCHF and USDCHF and ''''overbought'''' on CHFJPY.[/quote]

Or another "Blow -off" Top?



"Who knows what tomorrow brings...."

But the bottom of your last candle is also at support and the Boss looks like she is ready to turn up.