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AUD/USD

  • #31,981
  • Aug 6, 2011 11:41pm Aug 6, 2011 11:41pm
Quoting Magix
If anything can be said about AUDUSD is that it does seem to have a great respect for the daily 200EMA as a dynamic S/R line.

Looking back at the history, it is pretty clear that this line has been a pretty tuff nugget for price to really break and bust threw...

On the price side of things, on the chart fills side of things, we still have a lot lower that we could go, it's just a matter of when...

Current range shows that we are not only at that 200EMA on the daily, but also working into a break out back fill zone. Will we pull all the...
It's good that u show us your chart .... looks pretty dangerous ... starting to build long as 50-50 chance

Anyway ... I try to sit on these two ... if no retracement ... doesn't look like forex to me

attached :

1) EUR/AUD 4h tf

2) GBP/AUD 4h tf

Cheers !
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud4h_01.gif Size: 68 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud4h_01.gif Size: 65 KB
  • #31,982
  • Aug 7, 2011 4:11am Aug 7, 2011 4:11am
i still believe we will see 1.35~1.40 level for this pair
  • #31,983
  • Aug 7, 2011 2:05pm Aug 7, 2011 2:05pm
watch out:

gap down -> 1.0391 right now...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #31,984
  • Aug 7, 2011 3:04pm Aug 7, 2011 3:04pm
1.00 AUD=1.04336 USD
  • #31,985
  • Aug 7, 2011 3:05pm Aug 7, 2011 3:05pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
watch out:

gap down -> 1.0391 right now...

ufff, gap filled for now!

USDCHF -> -1.78%
EURUSD -> +.91%

Seems USD is going to suffer....
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #31,986
  • Aug 7, 2011 6:00pm Aug 7, 2011 6:00pm
AUD/USD @ 1.0400
Now there are two camps the bears ( technical & risk off) and the bulls (fundmentalists)

Im in the bull camp.
Reason
AAA rating
Gold producer
High Yield
China buys resources for internal infrastructure
Litte exposure to Europe and US
Small govt debt

Im looking for levels to buy.
Obviously 1.0380 showing initial support but we have some tech heads calling it lower so we let them have their fun first.

As for the market calling swiss franc safe haven.
That is so last century.
The market is having a paradigm shift from West to East.
Europe has problems and Swiss banks arent immuned.
Low yield and swiss have been known to charge negative interest
Good luck with parking your funds there.

Next Japan

Pathetic yield
Massive debt to GDP
Central bank trying to weaken currency
Good luck with that one.

Great times ahead. Keep your positions smaller. Movements will be severe so flexiblity is the key.
  • #31,987
  • Aug 7, 2011 6:54pm Aug 7, 2011 6:54pm
Quoting lasty
AUD/USD @ 1.0400
Now there are two camps the bears ( technical & risk off) and the bulls (fundmentalists)

Im in the bull camp.
Reason
AAA rating
Gold producer
High Yield
China buys resources for internal infrastructure
Litte exposure to Europe and US
Small govt debt

Im looking for levels to buy.
Obviously 1.0380 showing initial support but we have some tech heads calling it lower so we let them have their fun first.

As for the market calling swiss franc safe haven.
That is so last century.
The market is having a paradigm shift...
I do agree with you and understand all the reasons, but wouldn't it be better for the Aus Economy if the AUD dropped . The Gov says there is no intervention but im pretty sure if it was a lie it wouldn't be their first
  • #31,988
  • Aug 7, 2011 6:55pm Aug 7, 2011 6:55pm
Thanks Lasty

Tricky days ahead indeed... I would have expected (in my naivete?) big upmoves on USD pairs but not the case so far...

AUD is back bouncing off that 200ema on the daily and 50% of the last upmove... but lots of downside momentum, otherwise would look a good place to go long... not sure i have the cojones just yet though!
  • #31,989
  • Aug 7, 2011 7:10pm Aug 7, 2011 7:10pm
Quoting Jazznos
Thanks Lasty

Tricky days ahead indeed... I would have expected (in my naivete?) big upmoves on USD pairs but not the case so far...

AUD is back bouncing off that 200ema on the daily and 50% of the last upmove... but lots of downside momentum, otherwise would look a good place to go long... not sure i have the cojones just yet though!
There's no historical precedence. Smart to wait a minute.
  • #31,990
  • Aug 7, 2011 7:14pm Aug 7, 2011 7:14pm
Quoting newbee
I do agree with you and understand all the reasons, but wouldn't it be better for the Aus Economy if the AUD dropped . The Gov says there is no intervention but im pretty sure if it was a lie it wouldn't be their first
Tourism always blame the currency.
Retailers/manufacturers always blame the currency.
If the currency was at 60 cents they still wouldnt get their act together and overcharge.

Higher currency lowers inflation and fuel costs as well as cheaper imported goods.

RBA doesnt intervene to defend.. they have a policy of what they call "smoothing and testing" which basically means they add liquidity to extreme movements.
  • #31,991
  • Aug 7, 2011 7:23pm Aug 7, 2011 7:23pm
Quoting Jazznos
Thanks Lasty

Tricky days ahead indeed... I would have expected (in my naivete?) big upmoves on USD pairs but not the case so far...

AUD is back bouncing off that 200ema on the daily and 50% of the last upmove... but lots of downside momentum, otherwise would look a good place to go long... not sure i have the cojones just yet though!
Yeah its bouncing nicely off the 1.0380 support.
Paitence is the key here as 1.0450 contains.
Think there are plenty advising to sell so we need those players to enter before we get topside momentum on a shortcover.
  • #31,992
  • Aug 7, 2011 7:34pm Aug 7, 2011 7:34pm
Long now at 407 for a small position
had it breaking a weak resistance there
now at BE+1
TP at 465 but that might be optimistic
will see what happens at 440
  • #31,993
  • Aug 7, 2011 8:02pm Aug 7, 2011 8:02pm
Quoting lasty
Yeah its bouncing nicely off the 1.0380 support.
Paitence is the key here as 1.0450 contains.
Think there are plenty advising to sell so we need those players to enter before we get topside momentum on a shortcover.
So you would like to go long in the midst of a crisis?
  • #31,994
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:29pm Aug 7, 2011 9:29pm
Quoting egadsforex
So you would like to go long in the midst of a crisis?
There is reason to believe that Australia will survive a crisis better than most - as long as our main trading partners survive.
Of course this doesn't mean that automatically the currency will remain high against the USD whether the main players will see Aus as a safe haven is open for debate and gold and silver seem to be the main attractions at the moment - but that may change as gold continues into new territory.

As of now I'll continue to take long opportunities as they present.
Took some profit on my last trade when 10435 wouldn't give way.

Will now wait for another bounce around the 400 level
  • #31,995
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:39pm Aug 7, 2011 9:39pm
Hey all, hope you all had a great weekend

I see my TP was shy of 10 pips of being hit.
  • #31,996
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:03pm Aug 7, 2011 10:03pm
Quoting SystemFX2011
Hey all, hope you all had a great weekend

I see my TP was shy of 10 pips of being hit.
Had a great weekend. Just earning a few brownie points here so I'm totally irrelevant. Many pips to all.
  • #31,997
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:11pm Aug 7, 2011 10:11pm
Quoting SystemFX2011
Hey all, hope you all had a great weekend

I see my TP was shy of 10 pips of being hit.
Hey Steve... Nice one ;-)
What do you thnk now, 3rd hit of this TL/support region... breaking through to 1.03?
  • #31,998
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:12pm Aug 7, 2011 10:12pm
Quoting egadsforex
So you would like to go long in the midst of a crisis?
It all depends where you go long at.
I think many have sold already and will continue to but fundamentally the AUD is sound thats why we want the sucker play ;-)
Its treated as a risk currency but when the market actually come to terms with it, it should also be a safe haven.
Highly respected regulatory authority.
Strong banking system.
Worlds number 2 Gold producer.


However I question the reasoning behind buying Swiss francs as a safe haven?
Prior to 2000 the currency used to be back by Gold 40% and now its only 20%.

Thats my opinion and its hard to change sentiment but the market one day will wake up ;-)
  • #31,999
  • Edited 10:15pm Aug 7, 2011 10:14pm | Edited 10:15pm
Or another little run up and break through on the 4th hit ?
  • #32,000
  • Aug 7, 2011 10:18pm Aug 7, 2011 10:18pm
I think there should be some more to come to the downside, maybe a visit to the ADR low of 1.03079 first.

We'll see when Monday kicks in

Quoting Jazznos
Hey Steve... Nice one ;-)
What do you thnk now, 3rd hit of this TL/support region... breaking through to 1.03?
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