Went long EUR/CHF around 1.08, target 1.40 | Forex Factory

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Went long EUR/CHF around 1.08, target 1.40

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 5, 2011 2:57am Aug 5, 2011 2:57am
Hi all,

I used that deeeeep dip in EUR/CHF to go long just above 1.08. My target is 1.40 next year. Let's see how this works out.

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2011/eurchf_long.png
  • #2
  • Aug 5, 2011 3:02am Aug 5, 2011 3:02am
lmfao. nice..why u had to create new thread ?
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #3
  • Aug 5, 2011 3:03am Aug 5, 2011 3:03am
Awesome trade

even more awesome you just str8 up made a thread about it


epic
  • #4
  • Aug 5, 2011 3:05am Aug 5, 2011 3:05am
Quoting eqshack
lmfao. nice..why u had to create new thread ?
Because I always do. LOL. Nevermind will just see if I can make it. It's easier to see the development in its own thread - sorry mods!
  • #5
  • Aug 5, 2011 2:50pm Aug 5, 2011 2:50pm
Just a Question, Do you have a Stop loss, or is your margin call your stop loss? and in which case what level of leverage do you use as EUR/CHF could fall more than a couple of hundred pips and knock you out before shooting up to 1.40 or more, Im not saying it will it just COULD.

thanks.
  • #6
  • Aug 5, 2011 3:19pm Aug 5, 2011 3:19pm
I got in long at 1.07648 yesterday. Granted, not for quite as much as you but I'm contemplating making it a long-term trade. Not sure yet though, will have to see what the market says about it.
  • #7
  • Aug 5, 2011 4:54pm Aug 5, 2011 4:54pm
Hi there,

I don't believe in this trade, but I badly want to be wrong...
My brother is on open DD from around 1.50...He is not a trader, but his is on
a 100K + euros home loan based on swishy...
A few years ago, Bankers advised to do it as you pay less interest/monthly payment...
So he effectively created a long trade, and now he looses a lot..

I told him to get out at 1.44 at the beginning of 2010 but did not listen to..

Technically we have a strong down trend...
Now fundamentally we just see the effect of stopped intervention from SCB..

Politicaly we might see prices around 1:1...or lower as was the case
with USD/CAD and USD/AUD... Globalization forces...

Are you sure that you understand that soon or later the Swissy will replace the $ as a safe heaven / risk aversion currency?

Finally, I think that the Franc is the only FX major backed by GOLD..
Once the $ created with this in mind, then became unbalanced green paper in order to boost economy and get the world reserve of raw materials to boost economy...

Nowdays, with Bernake's Q programs, they just add 0's to their computers..You know green economy..no paper..save the trees..

Remember:
it takes only a USD/CHF 1:0.50 or a Sudden drop of EUR/USD to 1.25 to see your trade in jeopardy and rates lower than 1...
  • #8
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:25am Aug 6, 2011 1:25am
My stops are below 1.07.

The franc is NOT backed by gold, it is the same worthless piece of paper like all other currencies. The franc is seen as safe haven now even though it isn't safe...
  • #9
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:47am Aug 6, 2011 1:47am
Quoting Xaron
My stops are below 1.07.

The franc is NOT backed by gold, it is the same worthless piece of paper like all other currencies. The franc is seen as safe haven now even though it isn't safe...
CORRECT. Swiss removed Gold backing and no more back by Gold.

With the current situation, I have some reservation that the CHF will weaken right away. Stock market correction just started and I see cash running into USD and CHF and JPY.
Euro and others should weaken and moreover Europe's problem isn't over.
Guess it is unsafe before August 15 to go long.
Unless SNB intervene - Unlikely with cash - had been talking about a peg to the Euro - more like stabbing the banking industry to bandage the manufacturing industry
  • #10
  • Aug 6, 2011 1:51am Aug 6, 2011 1:51am
Investors in their herd mentality somehow forget that Switzerland is only one negative quarterly GDP away from being in recession. The Swiss are shopping in Europe en mass, exporters bleed daily and even importers cant sell much in SUI. This is first-hand experience for you. I lived in Suisse many years and can say CHF strength is insanely overblown. Manhattan prices are dwarfed by Swiss prices.

I salute this trade and hope by next year you get not only a kushy capital appreciation but a juicy swap income.
  • #11
  • Aug 6, 2011 3:55am Aug 6, 2011 3:55am
Rather risky.After the downgrade ,maybe we see EUR/CHF under 1.Needs hedging.
  • #12
  • Aug 6, 2011 12:17pm Aug 6, 2011 12:17pm
Quoting Xaron
My stops are below 1.07.

The franc is NOT backed by gold, it is the same worthless piece of paper like all other currencies. The franc is seen as safe haven now even though it isn't safe...
a very important rule in the forex world

when you see 40 - 50 pips profit, keep stop at entry, and trail it up every 50 pips

I believe we could see something around 1.07 or lower early next week
and it could be a very very good entry point
  • #13
  • Aug 6, 2011 2:52pm Aug 6, 2011 2:52pm
Quoting mannap
Rather risky.After the downgrade ,maybe we see EUR/CHF under 1.Needs hedging.
Not going to happen. The downgrade won't have any real impact as it was expected and don't change anything.
  • #14
  • Aug 6, 2011 2:54pm Aug 6, 2011 2:54pm
Quoting fammira
a very important rule in the forex world

when you see 40 - 50 pips profit, keep stop at entry, and trail it up every 50 pips

I believe we could see something around 1.07 or lower early next week
and it could be a very very good entry point
Trailing stops never worked for me. I don't do an intraday trade here. I aim for several thousand pips.
  • #15
  • Aug 6, 2011 2:55pm Aug 6, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting Groovy
Investors in their herd mentality somehow forget that Switzerland is only one negative quarterly GDP away from being in recession. The Swiss are shopping in Europe en mass, exporters bleed daily and even importers cant sell much in SUI. This is first-hand experience for you. I lived in Suisse many years and can say CHF strength is insanely overblown. Manhattan prices are dwarfed by Swiss prices.

I salute this trade and hope by next year you get not only a kushy capital appreciation but a juicy swap income.
Thanks for that! I agree the current levels are insane!
  • #16
  • Aug 6, 2011 2:57pm Aug 6, 2011 2:57pm
what may have a negative effect of the trade is germany is pissed at the EFSF's genius plan to saddle the germans with the entirety of the Eurozones debt problems...

but ..eh...as Ive said before, history has proven angry germans are no threat to anyone

just be careful bud, I like this thread
  • #17
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:37am Aug 7, 2011 9:37am
Whatever, am still holding short position for UCHF as it clearly shown in daily TF. So for swing trader, we can still hold the position.
Dancing with de MARKET.. bravoo!!
  • #18
  • Aug 7, 2011 12:13pm Aug 7, 2011 12:13pm
What are you guys think about this one?
http://i262.photobucket.com/albums/i...1/usdchf-1.gif
  • #19
  • Aug 7, 2011 1:39pm Aug 7, 2011 1:39pm
Quoting Togu
What are you guys think about this one?
http://i262.photobucket.com/albums/i...1/usdchf-1.gif
  • #20
  • Aug 7, 2011 1:41pm Aug 7, 2011 1:41pm
Nice trade n prediction... hahaha
Dancing with de MARKET.. bravoo!!
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