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AUD/USD

  • #31,961
  • Aug 6, 2011 5:48am Aug 6, 2011 5:48am
Picture tells everything.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.png Size: 69 KB
  • #31,962
  • Edited 7:03am Aug 6, 2011 6:22am | Edited 7:03am
Probably so , mate .

Recvd news 6hrs ago, USD faces the Market's Judgement on a S&P downgrade from AAA to AA+ , Outlook negative . QE3 potential and crisis of confidence. Mr.Obama's officials are very angry about this downgrade.

(Sometimes I do listen to things like this and relate them with the technicals in the charts).
  • #31,963
  • Aug 6, 2011 6:35am Aug 6, 2011 6:35am
Quoting VennD
Probably so , mate .

Recvd news 6hrs ago, USD faces the Market's Judgement on a S&P downgrade from AAA to AA+ , Outlook negative . QE3 potential and crisis of confidence.

(Sometimes I do listen to things like this and relate them with the technicals in the chart).
Yes.
Bear has been really sharp and i think we will see turn around. Also bad news from US. Can't wait for monday.
  • #31,964
  • Aug 6, 2011 6:53am Aug 6, 2011 6:53am
Quoting GoldMan.
Yes.
Bear has been really sharp and i think we will see turn around. Also bad news from US. Can't wait for monday.
well, anyway nice area to reload longs here, huge demand

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.jpg Size: 132 KB
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #31,965
  • Aug 6, 2011 7:03am Aug 6, 2011 7:03am
Quoting GoldMan.
Picture tells everything.

Sorry, but I don't get it... Are you insinuating a bounce to the yellow zone or even more drop?

Thanks,
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #31,966
  • Aug 6, 2011 7:19am Aug 6, 2011 7:19am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Sorry, but I don't get it... Are you insinuating a bounce to the yellow zone or even more drop?

Thanks,
dont care,
i dont get it neither
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #31,967
  • Edited 9:30am Aug 6, 2011 8:09am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Sorry, but I don't get it... Are you insinuating a bounce to the yellow zone or even more drop?

Thanks,
Hehe, np. Yellow line is good resistance line. Bear trend is very sharp but short GMMA shows that bear is having some weakness and price also touched long GMMA. Also price touched this blue line top but still was too weak to break it. If i must make a trade, i would be long. S&P downgraded US from AAA to AA+ and it is possible we will see weakness in US dollar. Now what i want to see is move up from this blue line and also short GMMA crossing and closing over long GMMA. The crossing would be confirmation that i made a right chose when i went long. Now there are small details that i havent mentioned but i hope you got a littel idea.
Remember, this is how i see it right now, it is possible that in monday situasion has changed. I hope i explained myself clearly, english is not my first language.
  • #31,968
  • Aug 6, 2011 8:15am Aug 6, 2011 8:15am
AUD/USD weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD USD WEEKLY channel.gif Size: 158 KB
  • #31,969
  • Aug 6, 2011 8:15am Aug 6, 2011 8:15am
Quoting GoldMan.
Hehe, np. Yellow line is good resistance line. Bear trend is very sharp but short GMMA shows that bear is having some weakness and price also touched long GMMA. Also price touched this blue line top but still was too weak to break it. If i must make a trade, i would be long. S&P was downgraded from AAA to AA+ and it is possible we will see weakness in US dollar. Now what i want to see is move up from this blue line and also short GMMA crossing and closing over long GMMA. The crossing would be confirmation that i made a right chose when i went long....

Perfectly explained. Thanks for elaborating!

Regards,
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #31,970
  • Aug 6, 2011 8:16am Aug 6, 2011 8:16am
Quoting PhAnTi'
well, anyway nice area to reload longs here, huge demand

Attachment
very huge.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 28 KB
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #31,971
  • Aug 6, 2011 8:30am Aug 6, 2011 8:30am
Quoting geniusztc
very huge.
right..huge demand area but anyway - (and I want to put some longs also) - I am not quite sure about going long now
  • #31,972
  • Edited 9:09am Aug 6, 2011 9:06am | Edited 9:09am
Quoting VennD
Probably so , mate .

Recvd news 6hrs ago, USD faces the Market's Judgement on a S&P downgrade from AAA to AA+ , Outlook negative . QE3 potential and crisis of confidence. Mr.Obama's officials are very angry about this downgrade.

(Sometimes I do listen to things like this and relate them with the technicals in the charts).
On the contrary .... don't forget ..... In the past week RBA downgraded its assessment of the global economy, leading to all the drops . Am afraid that sentiment is still there . Therefore ..... be extra careful on both sides (long & short ). That whipsaw knife means .... cold blooded killer..
  • #31,973
  • Aug 6, 2011 9:51am Aug 6, 2011 9:51am
Quoting VennD
On the contrary .... don't forget ..... In the past week RBA downgraded its assessment of the global economy, leading to all the drops . Am afraid that sentiment is still there . Therefore ..... be extra careful on both sides (long & short ). That whipsaw knife means .... cold blooded killer..
If I may add my opinion also...

you are right about to be careful ...
what I see on the weekly chart I posted is that the lower TL is still waiting for it´s fourth touch - and if/when the fourth touch of a trendline takes place it is usually followed by the break of the trendline.
  • #31,974
  • Aug 6, 2011 9:58am Aug 6, 2011 9:58am
Quoting VennD
On the contrary .... don't forget ..... In the past week RBA downgraded its assessment of the global economy, leading to all the drops . Am afraid that sentiment is still there . Therefore ..... be extra careful on both sides (long & short ). That whipsaw knife means .... cold blooded killer..
yes possible rate cuts on its way
Mohan
  • #31,975
  • Aug 6, 2011 11:40am Aug 6, 2011 11:40am
Quoting GoldMan.
Picture tells everything.
that's what i expect...

on Monday we might see some nice retracement based on initial dollar weakness after S&P downgrade just as a market reaction (maybe even panic?). But then after it calms down and puts it all together (US treasuries will still be interesting => dollar shouldn't be too wounded, economy slowdown means less commodities orders => AUD weaker) we might be ready for further down.

But then again, this Monday might be pretty tough one as VennD already put with the shark pic

I'm not sure i'm gonna long it on Monday (or anytime) on this levels but if we get to say 1.0600 - 10700 zone i will definitively look for a short opportunity there.
big numbers are our friends...
  • #31,976
  • Aug 6, 2011 11:43am Aug 6, 2011 11:43am
Quoting deeZG
that's what i expect...

on Monday we might see some nice retracement based on initial dollar weakness after S&P downgrade just as a market reaction (maybe even panic?). But then after it calms down and puts it all together (US treasuries will still be interesting => dollar shouldn't be too wounded, economy slowdown means less commodities orders => AUD weaker) we might be ready for further down.

But then again, this Monday might be pretty tough one as VennD already put with the shark pic

I'm not sure i'm gonna long it on Monday (or anytime)...
  • #31,977
  • Aug 6, 2011 12:06pm Aug 6, 2011 12:06pm
Inserted Video
  • #31,978
  • Aug 6, 2011 12:44pm Aug 6, 2011 12:44pm
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #31,979
  • Aug 6, 2011 10:33pm Aug 6, 2011 10:33pm
1) All kinds of stops probably be in the range of 400 - 550 and some light stops below the recent lows.

2) Besides Aust / US data , .... Japan / China data need also to be look into esp if they have extra money (Trade Balance). Might lend it some to US or buy AUD/Gold. Might also affect less demand on commodities.

3) If China's CPI increase , might also resulting to China's Inflation Rate rise. End story .... they might again make surprises by increasing their RRR (Reserve Requirement Ratio).

..just a note of caution ... as a friend clubbing in AU thread ... that's all ...

Happy Weekend to All ..
  • #31,980
  • Aug 6, 2011 10:49pm Aug 6, 2011 10:49pm
If anything can be said about AUDUSD is that it does seem to have a great respect for the daily 200EMA as a dynamic S/R line.

Looking back at the history, it is pretty clear that this line has been a pretty tuff nugget for price to really break and bust threw...

On the price side of things, on the chart fills side of things, we still have a lot lower that we could go, it's just a matter of when...

Current range shows that we are not only at that 200EMA on the daily, but also working into a break out back fill zone. Will we pull all the way back or hold support on the 200?

If anything, and as much as I am bear biased at current towards AUD, I am cautiously watching for that dead cat bounce...

Just my persepective...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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