This is my last post on this subject cause i don't want to get in a 'forum fight' and I agree largely with what you are saying.
What i don't agree with is you are talking about the MM's like they are invincible gods of the market, but they take on risk and sometimes they get burned too. Banks and marketmakers and hedgefunds reveal what they want to eachother, not everything. You really think a marketmaker or bank is going to let the other banks and marketmakers know exactly where all his orders lie?
Do you ACTUALLY know any Market Makers? Honestly, do you? if you don't then your point is mute.
Of course Market Makers and Banks talk to each other, they are the biggest result of the markets to move... hedgefund managers, with a few billion here or there, is not enough to make the market move like we've just seen in the AUD/USD. That move is souly responsible from the Banks and Market Makers - it's these guys who have the hundreds and hundreds of billions, even trillions to counter act the orders in to make things move. That's the very reason why they talk to each other, they dont give a rats toss about the hedgefund managers, they're of no concern to them.
if hedge fund managers knew exactly what was being said by these banks and market makers, they would not need to hedge in the first place. think about it.
Also making blanket statements about timeframes which are completely incorrect, there are people who pull in rediculous abouts of money on extremely short time frames. I am not one of them, but i know it's possible.
and that's what its about, the long haul. not what you can make in one day, or one month or a year, and I can bet you they do not hold a high accuracy rate and they do not - for the most part, have a life.... they are so glued to their monitor for hours and hours of each and every single day, they end up getting burnt out.
I probably spend about 1-2 hours a day trading, I look for a set up on about 25 currency pairs, I look for fractal disparities etc on pairs that move side ways and go for its neighboring pairs, etc, and or if all pairs are moving, then i look for the other patterns that I know MM'ers are creating, and jump in, put in my positions with high confidence and go to bed again.
That's what my day to day week consists of, while traveling the world (from time to time) or going out to nice places, enjoying - most of all - time with my family and friends. that's the real reason and bonus why I trade.
Do good stuff.
Steve
- #31,925
- Aug 4, 2011 7:07pm Aug 4, 2011 7:07pm
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,390 Posts
- #31,929
- Aug 4, 2011 7:43pm Aug 4, 2011 7:43pm
now there's a good idea
Your comments have been quite interesting and at least somewhat enlightening if a little nebulous...! Hopefully I will be able to do some research and develop more of an understanding of what youre talking about.
Generally i find the methods I use are quite successful (just gotta stay out of the duds!) so I shy away somewhat from going too overboard at learning every little thing, otherwise you get inundated with information and end up drowning in confusion and conflicting advice. I think you gotta take something that works for you and your style and timeframes and get good at it.
We're all looking to be successful at this game so the more valuable info we get the better. Youre right some people here just get on the attack and get a bit nuts about what others say but hey its the internet, thats unavoidable... Hope it wont put you off
Dude - wasnt trying to attack or diss you before.
Just explaining why people can get their backs up in here from time to time.
Dont forget anyone can say anything they like in here and try to get away with it cos they dont have to back it up with much and no one knows who they really are, so people are gonna be more sceptical and cynical than they would normally be...
FYI, my eur/jpy trade's trail stop got hit, put in another to go short and gbp/jpy and collectively made another 290 pips give or take a pip on the way down (TP's got hit while I was sleeping). my u/j trailing stop got hit too and out at a profit. still got some going though.
I'm done for trading, I tend to only trade a 4 day week, some weeks just 3: Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Any open positions that have not been hit on my TP's or trailing stops not hit, will be closed out tomorrow. Then start a fresh a new week ( i rarely hold my positions into the weekend)
Your comments have been quite interesting and at least somewhat enlightening if a little nebulous...! Hopefully I will be able to do some research and develop more of an understanding of what youre talking about.
Excellent... I hope it works out for you
Generally i find the methods I use are quite successful (just gotta stay out of the duds!) so I shy away somewhat from going too overboard at learning every little thing, otherwise you get inundated with information and end up drowning in confusion and conflicting advice. I think you gotta take something that works for you and your style and timeframes and get good at it.
I sure did... dang, some times I wondered who I was, trading so many different ways thinking I could grab every move - I was lieing to myself, until one day I found a way that works a majority of the time - It's helped improve my lifestyle in leaps and bounds...
You'll get there, just give yourself enough time to absorb it all
We're all looking to be successful at this game so the more valuable info we get the better. Youre right some people here just get on the attack and get a bit nuts about what others say but hey its the internet, thats unavoidable... Hope it wont put you off
Do good stuff
Steve
- #31,931
- Aug 4, 2011 9:10pm Aug 4, 2011 9:10pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Heads is a buy. Tails is a sell. | 1,031 Posts
- #31,933
- Aug 4, 2011 9:18pm Aug 4, 2011 9:18pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Heads is a buy. Tails is a sell. | 1,031 Posts
I use various methods, not just one.
EW is a little complicated, however the basics will get you started.
M.A's are to be used just as a guide. however, 200EMA's are what a lot of the pro traders use; it's generally an area for reversals if they are broken - however, just because a candle closes below it, does not mean it's a true reversal. they tend to be bounce levels until the level has been hit enough times, then it'll break and continue to go in favor of the break/close.
EW is a little complicated, however the basics will get you started.
M.A's are to be used just as a guide.
however, 200EMA's are what a lot of the pro traders use; it's generally an area for reversals if they are broken - however, just because a candle closes below it, does not mean it's a true reversal. they tend to be bounce levels until the level has been hit enough times, then it'll break and continue to go in favor of the break/close. Steve, i can't quote u as i'm using iphone right now.
What you're saying is, you only use 1 method of trading?
I'm about to delve further into elliott wave theory and MA, is that a correct direction?
the break will be to the upside... next level 84.157 (4HR TF - 50 EMA)
84.898 is next level (200 EMA 4HR TF)...
However, a false break to the low will appear, to a low of around the ADR 81.629, and an attempt to S2 line around 81.140 are the max levels i see right now for it to head towards to catch the short orders, rally for a bit to take out the longs then a nice move up to 84.xx level.
Signs of this happening will be clearer tomorrow or monday, however I'm off on a long weekend break; Caribbean for the weekend.
Trade well
Steve
84.898 is next level (200 EMA 4HR TF)...
However, a false break to the low will appear, to a low of around the ADR 81.629, and an attempt to S2 line around 81.140 are the max levels i see right now for it to head towards to catch the short orders, rally for a bit to take out the longs then a nice move up to 84.xx level.
Signs of this happening will be clearer tomorrow or monday, however I'm off on a long weekend break; Caribbean for the weekend.
Trade well
Steve
AUD/JPY looks like just a little bit of movement and it's going to explode one way or the other, like the calm before the storm. Hopefully it doesn't just stay like this until nfp
