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  • #1,181
  • Aug 4, 2011 3:31am Aug 4, 2011 3:31am
Quoting the_wizard
Artov it depends on the type of intervention. From what I have seen, it is rarely effective other than in the very short term.

Co-ordinated intervention like we saw in March in the Yen manges to reverse the trend for a little longer.

I'm offering 79.97 in the USD/JPY.
hi Tom,
how will you manage this short? I see different FTAs, 79.56......79.26
  • #1,182
  • Aug 4, 2011 4:06am Aug 4, 2011 4:06am
Quoting canados
hi Tom,
how will you manage this short? I see different FTAs, 79.56......79.26
I'm out at 79.46 for +51.
  • #1,183
  • Aug 4, 2011 4:45am Aug 4, 2011 4:45am
Offering USDJPY again at 80.38. Target 80.01
  • #1,184
  • Edited 8:54am Aug 4, 2011 8:39am | Edited 8:54am
Hi Tom,
I would like to thank you for starting this thread and sharing your ideas. So many times I asked myslef why people rely on candles shape so much when they differ broker from broker and server from server. The general behaviour of price around important S/R zones is what I have been observing mainly and thus I'm happy I found this thread.

I understand that in the commodities bussines where the market has open and close hours the open and close prices could be important. But in Forex? I'm glad I'm not only one with such opinion.

I'm thankfull reader of your thread. Will post some charts to discuss soon.

Kind regards
Jarda
Follow my trading on Twitter and FB: @pumlitch
  • #1,185
  • Aug 4, 2011 10:04am Aug 4, 2011 10:04am
Quoting the_wizard
Offering USDJPY again at 80.38. Target 80.01
Missed that by 15 pips.

Might have a go at this USDJPY long at 78.69 but you have to keep it tight here.

Intervention spikes don't last long...and you don't want to gamble on the BOJ coming in for round 2.

Play the levels and eye up those FTA's!

Crikey...I thought August was supposed to be quiet!

Man, my holiday plans are going out the window...
  • #1,186
  • Aug 4, 2011 11:57am Aug 4, 2011 11:57am
Will we make eventually make it through for a RR Guys?!

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  • #1,187
  • Aug 4, 2011 1:57pm Aug 4, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting the_wizard
Missed that by 15 pips.

Might have a go at this USDJPY long at 78.69 but you have to keep it tight here.

Intervention spikes don't last long...and you don't want to gamble on the BOJ coming in for round 2.

Play the levels and eye up those FTA's!

Crikey...I thought August was supposed to be quiet!

Man, my holiday plans are going out the window...
I took 78.69 and just closed at 78.98 for +27.

Funnily enough I went 2 pips offside on my 79.97 trade and 2 pips offside on this long...

Not a bad day in that Yen...
  • #1,188
  • Aug 4, 2011 3:58pm Aug 4, 2011 3:58pm
Quoting the_wizard

Man, my holiday plans are going out the window...
Your new girlfriend might have something to say about that!

A poss buy level in Gold?
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  • #1,189
  • Aug 4, 2011 6:52pm Aug 4, 2011 6:52pm
Quoting 4FXsake
Your new girlfriend might have something to say about that!

A poss buy level in Gold?
Ordinarily a good buy level and perhaps for a small bounce but look at the D1...if gold does begin to unwind it could be pretty hard and I don't see a significant bounce occuring at that level.
  • #1,190
  • Aug 4, 2011 7:30pm Aug 4, 2011 7:30pm
Got Balls
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  • #1,191
  • Aug 4, 2011 11:13pm Aug 4, 2011 11:13pm
One I'm keeping an eye on Tom...

G/AUD sell circa 1.58. SR + 61 fib (daily tf)
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  • #1,192
  • Aug 5, 2011 3:03am Aug 5, 2011 3:03am
Quoting sam0182
One I'm keeping an eye on Tom...

G/AUD sell circa 1.58. SR + 61 fib (daily tf)
If that doesn't have a reaction when it hits that level, I will quit trading and flip burgers.
  • #1,193
  • Aug 5, 2011 4:11am Aug 5, 2011 4:11am
Quoting the_wizard
If that doesn't have a reaction when it hits that level, I will quit trading and flip burgers.
Ha, that's good to hear
  • #1,194
  • Aug 5, 2011 5:55am Aug 5, 2011 5:55am
Quoting the_wizard
If that doesn't have a reaction when it hits that level, I will quit trading and flip burgers.
Im going to hold you to this Tom, lol!
  • #1,195
  • Aug 6, 2011 5:17am Aug 6, 2011 5:17am
Quoting the_wizard
If that doesn't have a reaction when it hits that level, I will quit trading and flip burgers.
that Level is a Heck of a level completely agree with tom.

although this market is a bit nuts and it can choose to ignore any level it wants but as the levels go I will rate it "AAA"
  • #1,196
  • Aug 6, 2011 7:22am Aug 6, 2011 7:22am
Quoting trader8080
that Level is a Heck of a level completely agree with tom.

although this market is a bit nuts and it can choose to ignore any level it wants but as the levels go I will rate it "AAA"
It can "choose" to ignore what it wants. Whether it manages too is another thing entirely.
  • #1,197
  • Aug 6, 2011 8:25am Aug 6, 2011 8:25am
Would have worked

http://content.screencast.com/users/...08-06_1409.png
  • #1,198
  • Aug 6, 2011 8:41am Aug 6, 2011 8:41am
Quoting sam0182
One I'm keeping an eye on Tom...

G/AUD sell circa 1.58. SR + 61 fib (daily tf)
Nice spot!

Bw, how much you are tragetting? 1.5450-5500?
  • #1,199
  • Aug 6, 2011 9:32am Aug 6, 2011 9:32am
With this strastegy u are expecting the bounce from the level not 3-400pips swing. You can target that much with TP2 but for TP1 I would be looking for first obstacle to get me out.
  • #1,200
  • Edited 1:13pm Aug 6, 2011 12:20pm | Edited 1:13pm
Already had a few emails saying that people can't make the webinar tomorrow. One of the things I was going to discuss was the trades I did this week so I thought I would briefly go over them here for anyone that misses it.

Trade #1 : Short GBP/USD.

Trade Idea : The idea here was that price was going to break the upper level on the chart attached and make its way to the lower level (former resistance). The reasoning behind this bias was the multiple testing of support which I always take as a sign that the market wants to take it out. The fact that the support had played out over several days made me think that when it went it would have the legs to get to the lower level.

The reason I didn't sell at the arrow (former support) which is the kind of blind touch approach I usually prefer is that on the false break of support we had "swing failure" which made me wonder whether shorts were going to be put on the backfoot.

However, it was the bearish outside bar on the H1 which made me decide that it was going to go. So I used the PA here to base my decision to short.

Continued...
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