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  • #21
  • Mar 26, 2006 8:52am Mar 26, 2006 8:52am
Quoting dof
Okay guys thanx again for the replies. One question more.
Wich pair is more affected by a news?
Let's take FOMC Interest Rate Statement coming on tuesday. Wich pair(s) should I watch? I know it will affect all the usd pairs, but watching on 5min charts all the usd pairs... it's a little hard for me. So, wich one will have the strongest move?
It depends on the news, If the news is from the JPN Central Bank, in the evening, that can send JPN pairs in a frenzy. However, I have found that because of the Higher volatility due in part to lower liquidity, GBPUSD has the biggest bang from the US 8:30 news time slot.

One cannot dismiss the news generated by Canada on the Loonie, though.
Of late It has been impressive.

SMJ
  • #22
  • Mar 26, 2006 8:56am Mar 26, 2006 8:56am
Quoting dof
Okay guys thanx again for the replies. One question more.
Wich pair is more affected by a news?
Let's take FOMC Interest Rate Statement coming on tuesday. Wich pair(s) should I watch? I know it will affect all the usd pairs, but watching on 5min charts all the usd pairs... it's a little hard for me. So, wich one will have the strongest move?
I do not know about anyone else, but my eyes will be on Cable after the FOMC

SMJ
  • #23
  • Mar 26, 2006 9:20am Mar 26, 2006 9:20am
Personally I trade USD/JPY exclusively. I don't know (or care) if it's the best one, but it works real well for me. I have found that focusing my study on just one pair has given me a deeper understanding of how it moves. I'm probably missing out on some crazy volatility in NZD and AUD at the moment, but that's ok with me. I only need another 5000 pips off the USD/JPY and I'm a millionaire...
  • #24
  • Mar 26, 2006 9:27am Mar 26, 2006 9:27am
Quoting Darkstar
Personally I trade USD/JPY exclusively. I don't know (or care) if it's the best one, but it works real well for me. I have found that focusing my study on just one pair has given me a deeper understanding of how it moves. I'm probably missing out on some crazy volatility in NZD and AUD at the moment, but that's ok with me. I only need another 5000 pips off the USD/JPY and I'm a millionaire...
I do not think there is anything wrong with picking a pair you are comfortable with and knowing all you can know about it. Who cares what the other currencies are doing. What is important is if you can make money. Knowing the ins and outs, ups and downs of one pair is a huge advantage.

As far a I am concerned, specializing can be a great path to riches.

SMJ
  • #25
  • Mar 26, 2006 9:47am Mar 26, 2006 9:47am
Quoting Darkstar
Personally I trade USD/JPY exclusively. I don't know (or care) if it's the best one, but it works real well for me. I have found that focusing my study on just one pair has given me a deeper understanding of how it moves. I'm probably missing out on some crazy volatility in NZD and AUD at the moment, but that's ok with me. I only need another 5000 pips off the USD/JPY and I'm a millionaire...
I'm thinking of doing that for some times. Picking a pair and knowing as much as i can about it... hmmm. I allways liked USD /JPY
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #26
  • Mar 26, 2006 10:13am Mar 26, 2006 10:13am
Quoting smjones
Oh, I forgot to ask, how's living in paradise today?

The Oregon coast, Coos Bay, Yachats,
Astoria, Bandan by the Sea. Ya lucky B.

SMJ
LOL. "Paradise". That is sooo funny as a local in gollashes!

But honestly, this area is known for its tourism factor, and then there's all those Hollywood movies filmed here in Astoria! (Goonies, Short Circuit, Kindergarden Cop, Ring, Free Willy...and others).

This week starts the "Terrorist Season" as us locals call it...Spring break and the influx of tourists.

Grrrrrrr.

Wouldn't be so bad if they would treat us the way (we would hope?) they treat those in their home towns!!!!! But it's a Love'Em'And'Leave'Em relationship. They come for the summer, trash our area, and then leave. Granted they are not all like that, but if one were to gerneralize? Yes.

I'm really a nice guy, and realize the above is a bit harsh...but boy, it's not far from the actual daily events during summer months around here. Most towns population doubles for the three months, good for business, hard on the nerves. Traffic accidents quadruple, DUI's are off the charts...it's party city for the summer on the Oregon Coast. Yippie.

Can't wait for Labor Day weekend.

LOL.
  • #27
  • Mar 26, 2006 10:22am Mar 26, 2006 10:22am
Quoting accrete
LOL. "Paradise". That is sooo funny as a local in gollashes!

But honestly, this area is known for its tourism factor, and then there's all those Hollywood movies filmed here in Astoria! (Goonies, Short Circuit, Kindergarden Cop, Ring, Free Willy...and others).

This week starts the "Terrorist Season" as us locals call it...Spring break and the influx of tourists.

Grrrrrrr.

Wouldn't be so bad if they would treat us the way (we would hope?) they treat those in their home towns!!!!! But it's a Love'Em'And'Leave'Em relationship. They come for the summer, trash our area, and then leave. Granted they are not all like that, but if one were to gerneralize? Yes.

I'm really a nice guy, and realize the above is a bit harsh...but boy, it's not far from the actual daily events during summer months around here. Most towns population doubles for the three months, good for business, hard on the nerves. Traffic accidents quadruple, DUI's are off the charts...it's party city for the summer on the Oregon Coast. Yippie.

Can't wait for Labor Day weekend.

LOL.
So I guess I won't be bunking on your coach... Oh well, I better call Expedia

LOL. SMJ
  • #28
  • Mar 26, 2006 10:39am Mar 26, 2006 10:39am
Quoting merlin
great attachment bemac. one thing you are underestimating is the CPI, though. employement situation is important, and you have that covered, but CPI is even more important than employement. currency trading (on a fundamental level) is all about interest rates. two things drive interest rates: inflation and employement. back in the 70's, economists were all about employement. but we have learned since then, and now economic theory puts more weight on the inflation. bernanke's (and Trichet and the rest of the central bank heads) main focus is inflation, have a read of his book 'inflation targeting' and that will be ultra clear, and therefore the market's focus is on inflation. anyway, this is a long way of saying 'its all about the CPI'.
Hi Merlin, Good point. That's why when I noticed that the sheet had had a few views I posted this.

Post #9
_______________________________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar
And Bemac, thats an awesome spreadsheet! Thanks!
______

Thanks Darkstar,

It should be noted that I actually put that sheet together ~ 5 years ago when I was predominantly trading commodities and Indicies.

Therefore you may want to re-evaluate things like Treasury Auctions etc as to their effect on FX. Back then, they didn't have much of an influence on the price of beans.

________________________________________________

Merlin, do you have any suggestions as to how the sheet should be edited to more accuratey reflect Forex Trading.
I would be more than willing to discuss it with you {public or private} and then make the mods.
  • #29
  • Mar 26, 2006 12:10pm Mar 26, 2006 12:10pm
Quoting fx-trader777
Yeh But if you have inflation + unemployment = stagflation it will kill dollar
ok smart guy, well then what is the answer to this equation...

deflation + employement = ?

Relax and be happy.
  • #30
  • Mar 26, 2006 12:19pm Mar 26, 2006 12:19pm
Quoting Bemac
Hi Merlin, Good point. That's why when I noticed that the sheet had had a few views I posted this.

Post #9
_______________________________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar
And Bemac, thats an awesome spreadsheet! Thanks!
______

Thanks Darkstar,

It should be noted that I actually put that sheet together ~ 5 years ago when I was predominantly trading commodities and Indicies.

Therefore you may want to re-evaluate things like Treasury Auctions etc as to their effect on FX. Back then, they didn't have much of an influence on the price of beans.

________________________________________________

Merlin, do you have any suggestions as to how the sheet should be edited to more accuratey reflect Forex Trading.
I would be more than willing to discuss it with you {public or private} and then make the mods.
you had everything pretty much right except for the CPI stuff. id say the top news events for currencies are....

core CPI
employement change (ie nonfarm payrolls)
GDP
GDP deflator (another inflation measure)
core PPI (inflation for producers)
unemployment rate
consumer spending (because it makes up a huge portion of GDP)
industrial production

of course this changes depending on what the market is looking at. for instance, right now in the current envoirnment the CPI is the most important because everyone is concerned with when the fed will stop tightening, and when the ECB will start tightening, and the central bank heads have been talking about nothing but inflation lately. but if you remember about a year ago, it was employement that was the main concern, because inflation was tame and employement was rocky. you can tell what is 'in vogue' by how much the reports move the market, not just the day after but the day before the release as well.
Relax and be happy.
  • #31
  • Mar 26, 2006 12:24pm Mar 26, 2006 12:24pm
Quoting Darkstar
Personally I trade USD/JPY exclusively. I don't know (or care) if it's the best one, but it works real well for me. I have found that focusing my study on just one pair has given me a deeper understanding of how it moves. I'm probably missing out on some crazy volatility in NZD and AUD at the moment, but that's ok with me. I only need another 5000 pips off the USD/JPY and I'm a millionaire...
man if you can figure out the yen then i consider you a great trader the yen acts different than everything else. i believe it is the most highly manipulated currency, the BOJ is so concerned with the level of the yen (due to their high exports) that they will go to great lengths to control the price level. right now the USDJPY should be at 110.00 but the BOJ doesnt want that to happen so here we are at 118.00 again! and NO, i am not just saying this because i am long the yen (or maybe i am LOL).
Relax and be happy.
  • #32
  • Mar 26, 2006 1:45pm Mar 26, 2006 1:45pm
Quoting merlin
ok smart guy, well then what is the answer to this equation...

deflation + employement = ?

= antistagflation



in this case employment is unemployment because employees are so low-payed that they are unemployed in fact.
kiss the trend
  • #33
  • Mar 26, 2006 1:58pm Mar 26, 2006 1:58pm
deflation + employement = japan

it was a trick question
Relax and be happy.
  • #34
  • Mar 26, 2006 2:19pm Mar 26, 2006 2:19pm
Quoting merlin
right now the USDJPY should be at 110.00 but the BOJ doesnt want that to happen so here we are at 118.00 again! and NO, i am not just saying this because i am long the yen (or maybe i am LOL).
Hi Merlin,
Thanks for the input on the Sp Sheet thing.

Hopefully you can hold onto that sense of humor as well as the Yen
Attached Image
  • #35
  • Mar 26, 2006 2:29pm Mar 26, 2006 2:29pm
Bemac.....omg that's funny.
  • #36
  • Mar 26, 2006 4:05pm Mar 26, 2006 4:05pm
LOL!!!

that is EXACTLY what i feel like!!!
Relax and be happy.
  • #37
  • Mar 26, 2006 4:59pm Mar 26, 2006 4:59pm
Quoting merlin
man if you can figure out the yen then i consider you a great trader the yen acts different than everything else. i believe it is the most highly manipulated currency, the BOJ is so concerned with the level of the yen (due to their high exports) that they will go to great lengths to control the price level. right now the USDJPY should be at 110.00 but the BOJ doesnt want that to happen so here we are at 118.00 again! and NO, i am not just saying this because i am long the yen (or maybe i am LOL).
Merlin,
I don't think you will get your wish any time soon, I was looking at the COT data in the futures and the really big money is very long the Yen. It seems they usually have a good handle on the direction. we shall see.

I find the usdjpy too difficult to forecast with much accuracy for any time besides nearterm.

SMJ
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  • #38
  • Mar 26, 2006 5:09pm Mar 26, 2006 5:09pm
Quoting smjones
Merlin,
I don't think you will get your wish any time soon, I was looking at the COT data in the futures and the really big money is very long the Yen. It seems they usually have a good handle on the direction. we shall see.

I find the usdjpy too difficult to forecast with much accuracy for any time besides nearterm.

SMJ
What I mean of course, is even with them betting long the yen meaning short the pair, the price still seems to hover up at the top of the range...
Who knows how long that can be sustained. I guess as long as BOJ wants.

SMJ
  • #39
  • Mar 26, 2006 5:13pm Mar 26, 2006 5:13pm
yes yes, all of us (with really big money ) are waiting on the yen to skyrocket. its traders vs. BOJ, who will win???
Relax and be happy.
  • #40
  • Mar 26, 2006 5:14pm Mar 26, 2006 5:14pm
i forget the guy's name in market wizards who says you should always trade against a manipulation. the example he gave involved the pound. anyone remember his name?
Relax and be happy.
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