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95% winners live test

  • #201
  • Aug 2, 2011 5:32am Aug 2, 2011 5:32am
Just out of nothing. Someone mentioned earlier locks instead of stopplosses. The same way it seems can be used to lock profit if the trend dont return, well then you still have your profit. Just a thout.


best regards
  • #202
  • Aug 2, 2011 7:36am Aug 2, 2011 7:36am
It sounds like to me you guys are still trying to find out when the 9 am est 1 hour candle is? The easiest thing to do is just ask your broker.

my 95% winners trade closed during EU session.

That is my last trade live with the system 1 at least for now. Even though I know my chances of a trade closing in profit are very high I still have a hard time taking a 70 pip dd emotionally. This happened during the NY and the japanese session.

You guys are free to explore the 95% winners. But plan on some days being in a 50-70 pip DD.

I will be using the system mod as my only trader right now.
In my next post I will try to clear up some of the system confusion and will also post the backtest results. I now have from 11/19 to current date.
bracket of 11/19 to 12/20 was the first losing bracket I saw. -21 pips which isn't a huge loss. I will post these a bit latter.

Cubby
  • #203
  • Aug 2, 2011 7:45am Aug 2, 2011 7:45am
For those trading my system or trying to trade it I will start looking for my trade in 15 min. right now it is 8:45 am est. For all of you confused this post will always say 8:45 am est.

Cubby
  • #204
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:00am Aug 2, 2011 8:00am
now we wait.....

Cubby
  • #205
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:13am Aug 2, 2011 8:13am
As we can the ema's on the 1 hour are still down. I will wait till we get an entry on the m15. This will happen when a break of a low on the m15 time frame happens. If we get no break and price keeps rising we wait till ema's cross on the 1 hour then look for m15 break up.

Cubby
  • #206
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:22am Aug 2, 2011 8:22am
I'm in but I think this trade will be a loser because of the current upward movement. Hopefully not a big one. We will see though.

cubby
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  • #207
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:31am Aug 2, 2011 8:31am
I entered this trade on the 9:15 candle. I will exit this trade in profit at 9:45 am est. If not in profit or at break even (including spread) I will exit no mater what at 10 am est. Depending on how trade goes I might wait till it hit's support level 1.41916 to take my profit.

Cubby
  • #208
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:40am Aug 2, 2011 8:40am
Quoting Caillou
Hi Pat1,

Wonderfull indicator. I think the time for Signal Bar could be wrong, yesterday I had a short trade, so we have to define exactly which bar is the BO bar.

Letīs wait for Cubby.......

Caillou,

Yesterday's slide picked up 72. pretty bad considering a 210 slide. Oh well...

Incidentally current NY time as I type is 8:03 am and GMT ((ib server time) is 12:03 or gmt-4. In fall, time will be GMT-5 from second Sunday in November. Since London is in DST, the time there is 13:05.

Returning to the inidicator or the rules, Cubby's trend direction determination was to check the EMAs at 8:30 or the 8:00 am hourly bar. and need to be addressed by Cubby for exact rules (if they exist for forex) for trend determination.

Pat
  • #209
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:44am Aug 2, 2011 8:44am
Quoting Cubbybgood
For those trading my system or trying to trade it I will start looking for my trade in 15 min. right now it is 8:45 am est. For all of you confused this post will always say 8:45 am est.

Cubby
So I was wrong by 1 hour, Signal Bar at 14h45 Frankfurt time. I was lucky yesterday.

Will start tomorrow, anyway today after Signal Bar I have no BO next candle, only the 9h30 bar has broken 8h45 bar, and the high, not the low, so today I would not have trade.

Cubby, if 9h00 bar doesnīt break 8h45 bar, do you wait for the BO no matter when, I mean, you trade too if the BO happens 5 bars later?

Thank you
  • #210
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:46am Aug 2, 2011 8:46am
Quoting Pat1
Caillou,

Yesterday's slide picked up 72. pretty bad considering a 210 slide. Oh well...

Incidentally current NY time as I type is 8:03 am and GMT ((ib server time) is 12:03 or gmt-4. In fall, time will be GMT-5 from second Sunday in November. Since London is in DST, the time there is 13:05.

Returning to the inidicator or the rules, Cubby's trend direction determination was to check the EMAs at 8:30 or the 8:00 am hourly bar. and need to be addressed by Cubby for exact rules (if they exist for forex) for trend determination.

Pat
  • #211
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:46am Aug 2, 2011 8:46am
Quoting Caillou
So I was wrong by 1 hour, Signal Bar at 14h45 Frankfurt time. I was lucky yesterday.

Will start tomorrow, anyway today after Signal Bar I have no BO next candle, only the 9h30 bar has broken 8h45 bar, and the high, not the low, so today I would not have trade.

Cubby, if 9h00 bar doesnīt break 8h45 bar, do you wait for the BO no matter when, I mean, you trade too if the BO happens 5 bars later?

Thank you
Yes, this is how I have been running my backtest. You do not have to do this yourself. I recommend you backtest what you are doing to see if it shows potential.

Cubby
  • #212
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:53am Aug 2, 2011 8:53am
Quoting Cubbybgood
Yes, this is how I have been running my backtest. You do not have to do this yourself. I recommend you backtest what you are doing to see if it shows potential.

Cubby
Of course, I always adapt a system to my personality, in fact, I donīt use EMAīs for trend.......

Thank you
  • #213
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:55am Aug 2, 2011 8:55am
Quoting Caillou
Of course, I always adapt a system to my personality, in fact, I donīt use EMAīs for trend.......

Thank you
Yes, I'm still looking for a stronger trend indicator or method for my one hour trend. I just have so many indicators I need to go threw. I may even nock my trend time fram up to the 30 minute.

Cubby
  • #214
  • Aug 2, 2011 9:07am Aug 2, 2011 9:07am
So we have the loss. we are at about break even from yesterdays trade.

Kinda crazy. We had one of the bigger gains the system gives with about a 57 pip gain and now a record loss of 50 pips. I exited a little late giving more like a 59 pip loss because of some slippage but oh well. The biggest loss in backtest was 40 pips. So just like we all know. Backtests can lead us in the right direction but they may not lead us to the gold.

The goal with this system here is to get at least 100 pips per month here. It's only been 2 days. I expect that there will be some up and down.

Remember...losing days are all part of the game here.

Cubby
  • #215
  • Aug 2, 2011 9:28am Aug 2, 2011 9:28am
For me, the best way to use your method, is to not trade it blindly, but use discretion. You have a good method in that you give NY time to establish a trend, then to go with it... Some days its probably better not to trade though . Yes, going with the trend is a good way to trade, BUT, on all swing high and lows, the trend has reversed... New Market open sometimes runs new high/lows, then reverses... So I look for those points and today, along with divergence on both the M15 and H1 timeframes... there was a strong indication that the trend was reversing... I went long on the break higher of the lowest NY Open M15 bar and just closed for 95 pips... My SL was the M15 candle range of 25 pips. Maybe an additional setup requirement should be not to go against Divergence... especially at the extreme point of a swing level... I have gone against divergence but only after it retraced to an ema that acted as S/R then trade the breakout with the trend with SL on the other end of the setup bar, and ema

Good Trading!

Quoting Cubbybgood
Yes, I'm still looking for a stronger trend indicator or method for my one hour trend. I just have so many indicators I need to go threw. I may even nock my trend time fram up to the 30 minute.

Cubby
  • #216
  • Aug 2, 2011 10:15am Aug 2, 2011 10:15am
Quoting dbeach777
For me, the best way to use your method, is to not trade it blindly, but use discretion. You have a good method in that you give NY time to establish a trend, then to go with it... Some days its probably better not to trade though . Yes, going with the trend is a good way to trade, BUT, on all swing high and lows, the trend has reversed... New Market open sometimes runs new high/lows, then reverses... So I look for those points and today, along with divergence on both the M15 and H1 timeframes... there was a strong indication that the trend was...
I couldn't agree with you more.

I took this trade for the wrong reasons. I knew it was probably going to be a loser before I even took it as I stated in my older post right after placing the trade. The reason I decided to was because I wanted to stick to the rules I laid out for everyone here. I think it's important to have some discipline when trading but I also believe that a trader has to be open sometimes to breaking his own rules.

If my system was not on display here on FF I would have taken my trade in the opposite direction at 1.42287 and would have closed it at around 30 pips Profit.

You are right that there needs to be some other things to take into consideration before taking a trade on the m15.

I think my idea is strong but divergence should be considered.

Cubby
  • #217
  • Aug 2, 2011 1:07pm Aug 2, 2011 1:07pm
I have been trading forex live for a while and some time back took Mr. Hopwoods advice to learn some programming. So I found a little program that would help me flow chart and write my ideas into code. Maybe cheating?

Anyway, wrote a very simple EA to find the right time to place Cubby's trades. All the EA does is place a buy stop and sell stop at the previous candle high and low (+/- some pips you choose). It also optimizes the TP and SL (amazing that they are different for buys vs sells) for these trades.

The EA picked the 17:00 time to place trades based off the H/L of the 16:00 candle. I did not exit after a certain amount of time as Cubby's system suggests. I was just trying to keep it simple. The EA identified the top 10 returns were using the 17:00 which for me tells me that is when I need to trade using my platform and broker regardless where and what session I'm trading.

Pretty good Cubby, it is producing an 89% win rate and a profit factor of 2.7 with a DD of <4%. I was running a $500 demo account risking 0.01 lots. This is amazing since I did not take any trend filters into consideration when placing these stop orders. Next I will look at the losers and see if a trend filter would have actually helped them. You would think it should.

FYI, I live on the west coast but my broker is Alpari US which I believe is on the east coast.

If anyone wants to run this EA on their system to find the best time for them I will post it but you have to promise not to laugh at my lack of professional programming. Also, it is NOT trading Cubby's system, it is just finding the best time to trade approximating his basic breakout idea.

Hats off to Cubby for sharing this and taking the risk and @#$&% that comes from starting a thread.
  • #218
  • Aug 2, 2011 3:14pm Aug 2, 2011 3:14pm
EJ, could you tell us what programme you found to flowchart an idea and turn it into an EA.. sounds interesting! Thanks.
  • #219
  • Aug 2, 2011 4:10pm Aug 2, 2011 4:10pm
I am not an affiliate or trying to sell anything.

The program I am using is Etasoft Forex EA Source Code Generator.

This program still requires excellent knowledge of the indicators you are using and how determine what the output from the indicators tells you. You actually have to put the functions within the flow chart pieces and then connect them together. This program is not as difficult as programming directly at the code level but it is not a simple plug and play program that anyone could easily throw together an EA. I have had years of programming which does help with understanding this program. You can check it out and see if works for you.

Sorry, Cubby, I won't mention any more about this program as I don't want to clutter the thread but this is could potentially be usefull for some traders and this is an educational forum.

Back to your system.
  • #220
  • Aug 2, 2011 4:30pm Aug 2, 2011 4:30pm
Quoting ejohnston5
I am not an affiliate or trying to sell anything.

The program I am using is Etasoft Forex EA Source Code Generator.

This program still requires excellent knowledge of the indicators you are using and how determine what the output from the indicators tells you. You actually have to put the functions within the flow chart pieces and then connect them together. This program is not as difficult as programming directly at the code level but it is not a simple plug and play program that anyone could easily throw together an EA. I have had years...
Hi EJ,

I think your EA could really help us in Cubby's system optimization.....

Thank you
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