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  • #341
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:32am Aug 1, 2011 10:32am
Quoting newyear498
yeah was talking about this before how japan was looking ripe..

I'm open to the idea it may continue lower but at this point the positions are closed as I'm expecting central bank intervention.. any thoughts on this?
I'd say that would be a smart play, but I'm looking at around 76 for a TP and sub-75 to start thinking about intervention fears. However, the market is jittery. All about timing.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #342
  • Aug 1, 2011 11:01am Aug 1, 2011 11:01am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
as I'm only playing these XXX/JPY pairs long in hopes of catching the huge intervention flows.
The way I see it there's still more trading to be done until the Japanese intervene. They said they would not intervene before the debt deal is done in the US. I don't know when the deal will be finalized so that's an open-ended timeframe. But that little piece of information was enough to boldly trade EURJPY and GBPJPY on the downside today as risk seeking turned into risk aversion. Any and all long positions before the announcement of a deal would be premature for long term holding the way I see it. As a short term play it's OK. In fact I think there could be a few short squeezes coming up as those risk plays have traveled quite a few pips today. However, planning all of your trades around the hopes of an intervention could be a bad bet because in the end it all depends on one's ability to catch the flow without getting stopped out by the huge whipsaws along the way.

Quote
The horrible ISM numbers only cement this outlook.
Tell me about it. I was sitting short in EURJPY and USDJPY with a profit right before the figures came out. I decided to close EJ in case the number didn't turn out to be that bad so I'd have less exposure. Ouch! I gave up some 50 pips with that one. And USDJPY didn't react at all! In fact all of my short UJ trades have produced negative pips today aside from one meager profit. On balance it's all good because my EJ, EU and GU bets paid off.

PS.
This week is NFP Friday week, so take that into account when planning to trade intervention flows. A bad print could vaporize all the intervention efforts so place your stops accordingly.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #343
  • Aug 1, 2011 1:35pm Aug 1, 2011 1:35pm
Quoting newyear498
always worth a peak into your journal.. always find something interesting to check into
I definitely agree.


Trizzle and Bug,

I really think that you two have provided great examples of how to prepare to trade the market, and preparation is essential.

Over the weekend, I started my own trading journal (LINK), and I just posted the things that I will be focusing on this week. It isn't as thorough or well-thoughtout as the ones you post, but I will get there.

It's a lot of work reading through bank reports, weekly outlooks/reflections, and then processing their ideas and thoughts, especially when you are still trying to figure out potential order flow generators.

I missed the Manufacturing ISM this morning, but do you think that the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is just as important? If so, I will prepare for it on Wednesday.
  • #344
  • Aug 1, 2011 1:57pm Aug 1, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting The Cheetah
I really think that you two have provided great examples of how to prepare to trade the market, and preparation is essential.
Thanks. Mind you, this is something that I didn't do when I started out a few years ago. Oh, how things change. Now I can't imagine putting on a trade without first having read the morning reports of 'what went down'. BTW, I find forexlive very useful for morning preps. I use it throughout the day, but it is especially useful when you haven't been sitting in front of the screen all day/night - you can just browse through the archived posts and get a feel of the day's action.

Quote
Over the weekend, I started my own trading journal (LINK), and I just posted the things that I will be focusing on this week. It isn't as thorough or well-thoughtout as the ones you post, but I will get there.
I'll put it on my 'to read' list and get back to you later. I'm a bit worn out right now - been watching the markets all day.

Quote
It's a lot of work reading through bank reports, weekly outlooks/reflections, and then processing their ideas and thoughts, especially when you are still trying to figure out potential order flow generators.
It takes a lot of work to gain competitiveness and remain competitive in any field, but especially in a field that is all about money. Considering the fact that we are all retail traders with no teams to back us up the only thing left to do is to work so hard that we don't need a team. I find that FF helps to some extent, but without dedication and hard work even the rare gems (posts and threads) you find here won't be good enough. Some tasks will get easier over time once you get the hang of it, but it should never be easy or effortless (a sure sign of impending doom). I'm not preaching here and I don't know enough about you to think you're lazy, I'm just thinking out loud on the topic of 'hard work'.

Quote
I missed the Manufacturing ISM this morning, but do you think that the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is just as important? If so, I will prepare for it on Wednesday.
If it's red, then it's important. Given the awful data we've seen recently I would say it's even more important than usually. Any confirmation of weakening growth will be bad so look out. I'm definitely looking forward to a very weak number (sometimes extrapolation is a good tool ).
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #345
  • Aug 1, 2011 6:35pm Aug 1, 2011 6:35pm
Quoting bug
The way I see it there's still more trading to be done until the Japanese intervene. They said they would not intervene before the debt deal is done in the US. I don't know when the deal will be finalized so that's an open-ended timeframe.
With the House having passed the latest bill, I think it's essentially a done deal in the Senate tomorrow. However, I don't think they'll get the major relief rally that they've been anticipating due to the growth concerns which have come to the fore.

Quote
But that little piece of information was enough to boldly trade EURJPY and GBPJPY on the downside today as risk seeking turned into risk aversion.
Nice plays! I missed out on trading the ISM on the usual EUR/USD since it didn't fill my limit. Ah well..there's always next month to trade the bugger.

Quote
Any and all long positions before the announcement of a deal would be premature for long term holding the way I see it. As a short term play it's OK. In fact I think there could be a few short squeezes coming up as those risk plays have traveled quite a few pips today. However, planning all of your trades around the hopes of an intervention could be a bad bet because in the end it all depends on one's ability to catch the flow without getting stopped out by the huge whipsaws along the way.
Well put - timing will indeed be of the essence, but there's a good chance that it's quite near on the horizon.

Quote
Tell me about it. I was sitting short in EURJPY and USDJPY with a profit right before the figures came out. I decided to close EJ in case the number didn't turn out to be that bad so I'd have less exposure. Ouch! I gave up some 50 pips with that one. And USDJPY didn't react at all! In fact all of my short UJ trades have produced negative pips today aside from one meager profit. On balance it's all good because my EJ, EU and GU bets paid off.


Quote
PS.
This week is NFP Friday week, so take that into account when planning to trade intervention flows. A bad print could vaporize all the intervention efforts so place your stops accordingly.
Makes me wonder if the BoJ will intervene before it and risk getting half of their work unwound by the possibility of a soft number. Are they really that thick?

Quoting The Cheetah
Trizzle and bug

I really think that you two have provided great examples of how to prepare to trade the market, and preparation is essential.
Thanks man! And you've got that right..preparation is the largest aspect of my trading followed by gauging when it's the right time to make my exit.

Quote
Over the weekend, I started my own trading journal (LINK), and I just posted the things that I will be focusing on this week. It isn't as thorough or well-thoughtout as the ones you post, but I will get there.
Nice! Definitely going to take a look.

Quote
It's a lot of work reading through bank reports, weekly outlooks/reflections, and then processing their ideas and thoughts, especially when you are still trying to figure out potential order flow generators.

I missed the Manufacturing ISM this morning, but do you think that the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is just as important? If so, I will prepare for it on Wednesday.
Yeah it's a bit of overload at first but the fact that you're dedicating the time to do it already speaks volumes, and the burden can only lighten further as you get more acquainted with the market. It's quite entertaining the way it behaves sometimes! Regarding ISM Non-Manufacturing it was a non-event last month, but given that we're now focused on growth concerns, a downside print may give US bears the opportunity to add more fuel to the fire.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #346
  • Aug 1, 2011 6:39pm Aug 1, 2011 6:39pm
Hmmm..so the MoF has upped their rhetoric up a notch to almost convincing levels that they're seriously considering their intervention, and as such I've decided to close my shorts out for a decent profit. I do however believe that the US still faces greater downside risks so have opted to maintain a short position I've had in USD/CHF for some time now.

I've read reports that in conjunction with the MoF, the BoJ may decide to take further easing measures at their Thursday-Friday monetary policy meeting summit, which I personally find is highly unlikely, but good to keep an eye out for.

The sad thing is that if the BoJ does intervene it will have effectively 'drew the line in the sand' at these levels, and will inevitably draw more speculators in to test their credibility in the future. Coupled with the fact that they seem to be acting unilaterally, a bad NFP could wipe out half their work!

Should be quite an interesting week, especially with all the monetary policy meetings slated to take place.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #347
  • Aug 1, 2011 7:01pm Aug 1, 2011 7:01pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
With the House having passed the latest bill, I think it's essentially a done deal in the Senate tomorrow. However, I don't think they'll get the major relief rally that they've been anticipating due to the growth concerns which have come to the fore.
Even though liquidity is quite low right now and one can never be too sure about the way the market would react to this kind of issue being solved, I lean toward the opinion that some of it has already been priced in and a relief rally will be very brief indeed. The current bill also doesn't make the S&P downgrade criteria and that should help kill any relief rally. However, if S&P comes out and says all is OK as far as they are concerned then I would look for a very sharp short squeeze which would ultimately still be followed by dollar bearishness. All bets are off the table, of course, if the bill doesn't make it through the Senate. If people want a taste of what happens when bills like this don't make it through Congress then go ahead and look at 2008 and the way market reacted when TARP was first rejected.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #348
  • Aug 1, 2011 7:13pm Aug 1, 2011 7:13pm
Quoting bug
The current bill also doesn't make the S&P downgrade criteria and that should help kill any relief rally. However, if S&P comes out and says all is OK as far as they are concerned then I would look for a very sharp short squeeze which would ultimately still be followed by dollar bearishness.
So...it looks like the S&P will not be downgrading the US after all. The 4 trillion quote was supposedly taken out of context, at least that's what the head of S&P said when sitting in front of a Congressional committee (like a schoolboy in the principal's office I might add). And this piece dates back to July 27th. I can't believe I missed it. I found it via this FTA post today, a post which is worth a read as well. Anyway, here's the quote from the NYT piece:

The official, Deven Sharma, president of Standard & Poor’s, added that deficit-reduction plans currently being considered in Congress could be enough to allow the United States to keep its triple-A credit rating. But Mr. Sharma declined to specify what level of cuts would be needed to maintain the top-level credit rating.
He said news articles last week “misquoted” a July 14 S.& P. report as saying that Congress would need to achieve at least $4 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years to maintain the country’s triple-A rating.
A cut of $4 trillion, a number that is cited in the S.& P. report and that has been the focus of concern on Wall Street over the last two weeks, was “within the threshold” of what S.& P. thinks is necessary, Mr. Sharma said. But he declined to draw a bright line, saying only that “some of the plans” currently being considered on Capitol Hill “could bring the U.S. debt burden and the deficit level in the range of a threshold for a triple-A rating.”

LINK: Credit Agency Tells Congress a Default Is Unlikely
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #349
  • Aug 1, 2011 7:32pm Aug 1, 2011 7:32pm
Quoting bug
So...it looks like the S&P will not be downgrading the US after all. The 4 trillion quote was supposedly taken out of context, at least that's what the head of S&P said when sitting in front of a Congressional committee (like a schoolboy in the principal's office I might add). And this piece dates back to July 27th. I can't believe I missed it. I found it via this FTA post today, a post which is worth a read as well. Anyway, here's the quote from the NYT piece:[indent][i]The...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post4814573

  • #350
  • Aug 2, 2011 1:15am Aug 2, 2011 1:15am
Japanese are in precarious position:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...rom-quake.html

Though this USD rally due to bad ISM was surprising to me.
  • #351
  • Aug 2, 2011 5:29am Aug 2, 2011 5:29am
Quoting vicky_ag

Though this USD rally due to bad ISM was surprising to me.
don't think it had to do with ISM
  • #352
  • Aug 2, 2011 5:35am Aug 2, 2011 5:35am
Quoting seagreen
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post4814573

I don't think they'll shut up. They were so far behind the curve during the mortgage boom and now they are trying to make up for it. Look at what they've done to European sovereign debt and you'll get the picture. I think they'll be pressuring Congress for some time to come. The House committees can drag them to Capitol Hill all they want but in the end they will do what they want. It's all about credibility for them and they don't have a lot of it. Since they've already spoken out in very loud tone on US debt I doubt they will back off just willy-nilly.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #353
  • Aug 2, 2011 5:40am Aug 2, 2011 5:40am
Quoting bug
I don't think they'll shut up. They were so far behind the curve during the mortgage boom and now they are trying to make up for it. Look at what they've done to European sovereign debt and you'll get the picture. I think they'll be pressuring Congress for some time to come. The House committees can drag them to Capitol Hill all they want but in the end they will do what they want. It's all about credibility for them and they don't have a lot of it. Since they've already spoken out in very loud tone on US debt I doubt they will back off just...
Maybe, but S&P has already lowered their cuts requirements for keeping US AAA rating. They said it was misunderstanding.
  • #354
  • Aug 2, 2011 5:40am Aug 2, 2011 5:40am
Quoting newyear498
don't think it had to do with ISM
Exactly. This was a general risk aversion situation (probably due to Unicredit downgrading) and it started before the ISM report.
  • #355
  • Aug 2, 2011 6:21am Aug 2, 2011 6:21am
Well that is assigning an event after the fact. How to be sure at that exact moment?
  • #356
  • Aug 2, 2011 6:24am Aug 2, 2011 6:24am
Wow..it seems like a lot of participants aren't aware of that piece bug, as up to this morning I was reading of the $4 trillion figure still being touted in some reports! As to why they couldn't come out with a concrete figure I have no idea...The thing is even if they weren't looking for $4 trillion, they're only going to see less than $1 trillion, with the remaining $1.5 trillion to be decided in true kick-the-can-down-the-road fashion. If there was so much wrangling in Congress this time, then I don't think things will get easier when the spotlight shifts to the bipartisan Committee deciding how best to achieve those $1.5 trillion in cuts.

USD/JPY has become boring once more, but I'm looking at a breach of 76 to begin to establish a long, and if that fails then 75. I don't see much more downside from there.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx

EDIT: Regarding ISM, from my point of view it did contribute to the risk-off sentiment and about half of the sell-off if I had to put my finger on it. It's a very counterintuitive news trade at least in my experience with it so far.
  • #357
  • Aug 2, 2011 6:35am Aug 2, 2011 6:35am
Quoting newyear498
don't think it had to do with ISM
It had everything to do with the ISM report - it came in at around 50 (below 50 is recession territory). I was trading at the time and I remember the move very clearly. Here's a chart of EURJPY (which I was trading at the time). It was complete risk off and you can see the same kind of spike down on GBPUSD, EURCHF, USDCHF etc. The dollar rally was underway way before the report came out, but that report roughly doubled the move down. So I would say it had everything to do with the report.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ism.gif Size: 18 KB
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #358
  • Aug 2, 2011 6:45am Aug 2, 2011 6:45am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Wow..it seems like a lot of participants aren't aware of that piece bug, as up to this morning I was reading of the $4 trillion figure still being touted in some reports! As to why they couldn't come out with a concrete figure I have no idea...The thing is even if they weren't looking for $4 trillion, they're only going to see less than $1 trillion, with the remaining $1.5 trillion to be decided in true kick-the-can-down-the-road fashion. If there was so much wrangling in Congress this time, then I don't think things will get easier...
It would seem to be the case, yes. Perhaps this is because everyone is fed up with reading news pieces about the debt ceiling? I know I haven't read a single news story from start to finish for over a month because the people on Capitol Hill have discovered the 'art' of procrastination and rewriting. It feels stupid to spend hours upon hours of reading text that has no value the following day.

Quote
USD/JPY has become boring once more, but I'm looking at a breach of 76 to begin to establish a long, and if that fails then 75. I don't see much more downside from there.
Tell me about it. I swore never to trade USDJPY again after the interventions in 2010, but here I am again burning my fingers. So now that I have once again convinced myself of the utter pointlessness of trading USDJPY, I will only be looking to play the yen via EURJPY.

Quote
EDIT: Regarding ISM, from my point of view it did contribute to the risk-off sentiment and about half of the sell-off if I had to put my finger on it. It's a very counterintuitive news trade at least in my experience with it so far.
It was a classic risk off trade. Counterintuitive....maybe...in the sense that you wouldn't be buying dollars if the US economy is tanking, but risk aversion seems to have more oomph in these situations. In terms of the ISM report having an effect, see my previous post.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #359
  • Aug 2, 2011 6:51am Aug 2, 2011 6:51am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
USD/JPY has become boring once more, but I'm looking at a breach of 76 to begin to establish a long, and if that fails then 75. I don't see much more downside from there.
.
I'll be shorting here on and maybe we can make that long entry together.

Quoting xXTrizzleXx
EDIT: Regarding ISM, from my point of view it did contribute to the risk-off sentiment and about half of the sell-off if I had to put my finger on it. It's a very counterintuitive news trade at least in my experience with it so far
.
Exactly my point. Not sure if newyear and seagreen saw it coming, it took me completely by surprise.
  • #360
  • Aug 2, 2011 7:28am Aug 2, 2011 7:28am
Quoting bug
It had everything to do with the ISM report - it came in at around 50 (below 50 is recession territory). I was trading at the time and I remember the move very clearly. Here's a chart of EURJPY (which I was trading at the time). It was complete risk off and you can see the same kind of spike down on GBPUSD, EURCHF, USDCHF etc. The dollar rally was underway way before the report came out, but that report roughly doubled the move down. So I would say it had everything to do with the report.
I think it was just one of those cases where news releases make the market move faster.

temporary relief for a temporary solution to a deficit problem.
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