For the past two weeks we saw Euro surged against the Yen from the low of 151.70 to reach a high of 161.10 last week. This also means that the price briefly touched the 61.8% retracement level of 160.93 (166.65 to 151.70) but sellers and profit-taking quickly came in and almost instantly in the space of 10 minutes as the pair dropped about 100 pips during the selling process. Failure at 160.93 also means that a possible double top chart pattern is formed on the daily chart.
The two-week rally also saw the pair broken above the 55-EMA on the weekly chart. Looking at buying momentum on the 4-hour and daily MACD weakening and the recent upward cycle looking extremely overbought, I reckon that the bias could be shifting towards the downside this week. Expect to see support around 158.88 with a break below 157.50 should confirm the selling momentum. Intra-day upside resistance seen at 160.17 with a break above 160.53 should retest the swing high at 161.10.
