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Romancing the Price

  • #481
  • Aug 1, 2011 1:59pm Aug 1, 2011 1:59pm
thanks for your thoughts ..got ur point ..

so we have to see higher time frame how its reacting and from wer its coming , so we would be safe ...'







Quoting Porkpie
We have just bounced down from higher time frame supply. Look at the Daily. You need to be lower on the higher time frame curve imo for a higher probability trade. But you might get lucky. But i'd rather be looking for shorts only (obviously not at that level).
Trading is all about probability, low risk/high reward ,buy low/sell high
  • #482
  • Aug 1, 2011 2:02pm Aug 1, 2011 2:02pm
Quoting Porkpie
work it bro, work it...
From a fundamental point of view, I have every faith that our American cousins will vote through the measures and raise the debt limit, literally one second before midnight... tick, tock, tick, tock.

Focus can then be switched back to Europe and the market is already wanting to!
  • #483
  • Aug 1, 2011 2:05pm Aug 1, 2011 2:05pm
Hello! Im new to this method so have patience with me. I skimmed through reds thread but i found it overwhelming. A lot of info in a very short time never explained properly so that, after skimming the whole thread i dont even know what questions to ask!

In my picture only the white arrows are potential support or are all the zones i took potential support? By this i mean to ask: is support defined by a red bar being engulfed by a green bar and after price goes up and revisits this level it could act as support? Or do i take all the swings like in the picture?

How do i draw the support zones? I mean if u were to draw a rectangle from where to where would u draw it? At the top and bottom of the engulf or of the bar getting engulfed? What if we have a support without engulf?

Once price is in a zone what does price need to do so that i know it has reacted to that zone? Create another engulf? (I dont want to enter blind because i would get in trouble fast).

Is the first red arrow (1st picture after the white arrow starting from the left of the chart) a zone of support? The 2nd red arrow takes its low and then shoots up! What i want to know is: if a support gets its low taken but then price becomes bullish is that support still in play? Where would u enter here if it is?

In the second picture...is that zone that i marked supply? The price didnt go down by that much but revisited the zone and went down. Can we SELL here without looking whats 'behind'? I mean can we SELL here just based on this weakness that appeared and which was quickly tested afterwards or to correctly take this trade, we need to look back to say...potential supply zone from 5th of July?

Like i said in the beginning i still have a lot of questions, i will be thinking how to formulate them. Would be great if more people would make videos about this starting with the basics.
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  • #484
  • Aug 1, 2011 2:15pm Aug 1, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting Alexone
Hello! Im new to this method so have patience with me. I skimmed through reds thread but i found it overwhelming....

Like i said in the beginning i still have a lot of questions, i will be thinking how to formulate them. Would be great if more people would make videos about this starting with the basics.
I suggest you start reading through this thread in details for the following reasons -

1. Ken has summarised all the information, mainly in the first post.
2. This thread has considerably less posts and therefore easier to digest.
3. It would take a lot of writing to answer you questions and they have all been answered before.

I also suggest you read the following threads which again are quite small in the number of posts and all the required information and questions that you have asked are all answered mainly in the 1st posts -

1. Watch over 25 Sam Seiden webinars devoted to the concept of trading Supply & Demand zones here.
2. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=255586
3. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=255656
4. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post4715857

Once you have digested all this information, which should take you a couple of months, please come back and do not hesitate to ask questions!
  • #485
  • Aug 1, 2011 3:58pm Aug 1, 2011 3:58pm
How many pairs are you guys watching? I've gone from 1 pair, to 30 and everything in between lol!

I have it narrowed down to 11 pairs (EU, GU, AU, NU, UC, UJ, GJ, EJ, AJ, UCF,ECF)

and also Oil, S&P, Gold and Silver

....so 15 altogether.
  • #486
  • Aug 1, 2011 4:22pm Aug 1, 2011 4:22pm
Quoting Ultimatus
How many pairs are you guys watching? I've gone from 1 pair, to 30 and everything in between lol!

I have it narrowed down to 11 pairs (EU, GU, AU, NU, UC, UJ, GJ, EJ, AJ, UCF,ECF)

and also Oil, S&P, Gold and Silver

....so 15 altogether.
I focus mainly on EU as it is the most traded and liquid of all FX instruments, but that does not mean I do not watch/trade other pairs and commodities. One professional trader I know only trades EU and makes a fantastic living from it. He knows this pair better than his wife... lol

He stated that it is better to focus on one instrument and get to know it inside out, especially when day-trading. When swing trading of the higher timeframes such as the daily or weekly timeframes, obviously you don't get many trades and hence people tend to trade more than one instrument.

It is what you feel most comfortable with, but what is easier... focusing on 1 instrument or 15 instruments?

Red trades anything that goes and he has his favourites, but then again he has many years of experience. My suggestion is that if you lack experience, one should stick to one instrument when day trading and 5 instruments for swing trading which are preferably not related (i.e. not all $ pairs)

In the end it doesn't matter how many instruments you trade, but you are better off trading one instrument successfully than 15 instruments badly. That does not mean you should not trade 15 instruments!

I hope I have given you some food for thought and wish you success with your trading.
  • #487
  • Aug 1, 2011 4:33pm Aug 1, 2011 4:33pm
Quoting bbakker
I focus mainly on EU as it is the most traded and liquid of all FX instruments, but that does not mean I do not watch/trade other pairs and commodities. One professional trader I know only trades EU and makes a fantastic living from it. He knows this pair better than his wife... lol

He stated that it is better to focus on one instrument and get to know it inside out, especially when day-trading. When swing trading of the higher timeframes such as the daily or weekly timeframes, obviously you don't get many trades and hence people tend to trade...
Thanks for you input bbakker.

I would like to focus on just one pair, but often get the nagging feeling I am missing all the action on other pairs. Is one pair enough for trading 1h levels? I assume you often have days with no trades at all?

hmmm...maybe I could whittle it down a bit more lol

It would be great to hear how many others are trading too, I know Verb trades all of them!
  • #488
  • Aug 1, 2011 4:58pm Aug 1, 2011 4:58pm
Quoting Ultimatus
Thanks for you input bbakker.

I would like to focus on just one pair, but often get the nagging feeling I am missing all the action on other pairs. Is one pair enough for trading 1h levels? I assume you often have days with no trades at all?

hmmm...maybe I could whittle it down a bit more lol

It would be great to hear how many others are trading too, I know Verb trades all of them!
Get shot of that nagging feeling that you are missing all the action because it will force you to trade when you should not be entering a trade. The markets are going nowhere. Never feel that you have missed a trade because more often than not, price will come back for you to enter in again with a solid trade. If you look at my EU trade today, I didn't panic when I missed the boat at 1.45 last week as I was actually still in a long trade then which eventually hit my trailing SL (Check my attachments). On the daily chart, it didn't make a higher high, the weekly timeframe finished with almost a doji/spinning top and that was a signal for me to go short on the pair. It was just a matter of time for price to come to my chosen supply level that I had identified which also had a TL confluence.

Today I had 1 trade and missed another by a few pips, although I am actually on holiday, so I haven't been day trading at all, just swing. On some days when I am day trading/scalping and not working I have 10+ trades. Orbital can have 50 trades in one day, but rarely gives back to the market. The key is to have rules in place for example, whereby if you lose more than 2% of your capital in one day, you stop trading, close the PC down and walk away. Tomorrow is another day. You must have circuit breakers in your plan because without them, it will only lead to tears through revenge trading.

Indeed, I have days when I have no trades, but standing on the sidelines is a position in itself. When fishing, you cast the rod, and on a bad day, you might not get a catch or you get a catch and then as you reel it in, it escapes (Hits your SL). Then the following day, you might get fish aplenty.

Again, it is what you feel most comfortable with, as everyone is different. If you are still finding your feet, try different things to find your comfort level, because trading is all about being comfortable in your ability and more importantly your money management.

I am jibbering now... the beer is flowing. Time off, no new trades and just letting my hair down.
  • #489
  • Aug 1, 2011 5:32pm Aug 1, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting Ultimatus
Thanks for you input bbakker.

I would like to focus on just one pair, but often get the nagging feeling I am missing all the action on other pairs. Is one pair enough for trading 1h levels? I assume you often have days with no trades at all?

To me H1 is a bitch of a timeframe because it can change momentum in a heartbeat if youre used to scalping and holding short term.

The nagging feeling you have is nothing more than a mindtrick, any idiot can go back on a chart and say: Yeah in hindsight i could have longed here or shorted there.

You know that feeling when you're really really drunk and two of your fuck buddies happen to be in a club, but you ignore them because you were busy eyeballing that gorgeous jailbait with the catholic school girl skirt who once you wake up wasnt that impressive in bed even though she claimed to have elite blowjob skills? Then you (either throw her out of your appartment or take a cab home) and think to yourself... man if i wasnt so focused on her i could have gangbanged both of my fuckbuddies if i play my cards right...

In reality though you were to fucking drunk and should consider yourself lucky that catholic schoolwhore blew you?

Yeah thats EXACTLY the same thing in trading. You're brian is giving you the illusion of missed opportunities, its in our nature to overreach and fantasize about so called "missed" opportunities whereas in reality they were just an illusion.

I do 4 Pairs: DAX, Crude, EU, SP500. Actively i only ever trade 2 two. Because of the amount of trades i do per day i rarely have the feeling im missing out on anything, if i ever do miss out on anything its because i was lazy in charting or actually forgot to chart shit in and set an alarm clock when price hits that level. There is so much action on DAX and Crude though that there rarely is a need to look at other charts.

Then again i trade on M5 and youre on h1 which is a huge difference in terms of market rythm and perception.

I can only recommend that you pick two markets you enjoy the most and have the best "feeling" and "understanding" for. Pick ONE(!!) timeframe for both of those charts and have them open at all time. Trade one of them actively and monitor the other constantly for opportunities. Map out (which is easy enough on a higher timeframe) zones and levels of interrest where you only need to monitor PA to get an entry once price reaches that zone and set alarms for when prices get there. That way you are trading one chart actively while waiting for the other to hit your zones/targets.

Brian made a good point about standing on the sidelines being a position in itself. I sometimes will refuse to enter a market due to heavy bias and will spend time fishing in other ponds. Ideally the best practice for you here would be to open a demo account and as brian so nicely put it, find a balanced approach that suits your personality and trading rythm.

I really wish i could give out better advice so i hope the suggestions were helpful. I know i mentioned earlier about picking two instruments with ONE timeframe but if youre keen on doing H1 id recommend you work your way up in terms of experience in dealing with multiple instruments. I will strongly discourage you from using different timeframes on multiple instruments until you have sufficient experience in handling 2 with 1 timeframe.

Kind regards
  • #490
  • Aug 1, 2011 7:10pm Aug 1, 2011 7:10pm
This thread gets better by the day... and night. You and Brian and Kenny and If and Emene are all my brain needs....pure undiluted brain food. Thank you.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #491
  • Aug 1, 2011 7:23pm Aug 1, 2011 7:23pm
Quoting Orbital
You know that feeling when you're really really drunk and two of your fuck buddies happen to be in a club, but you ignore them because you were busy eyeballing that gorgeous jailbait with the catholic school girl skirt who once you wake up wasnt that impressive in bed even though she claimed to have elite blowjob skills? Then you (either throw her out of your appartment or take a cab home) and think to yourself... man if i wasnt so focused on her i could have gangbanged both of my fuckbuddies if i play my cards right...

In reality though you were...
Oh puh-lease! What a stud Don't forget to check your own skills. Wouldn't want to disappoint the ladies now, would we.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #492
  • Aug 1, 2011 8:45pm Aug 1, 2011 8:45pm
slightly different approach but nice analysis MCFly.. thank you..

main point was [for me and Red anyway] price went in demand with compression.. that's usually very good indication of the turning point coming soon..

here are some messy scalp trades i did on that chart.. on the move to north i have closed and re-bought few times.. that's scalper for you..

i like to thank you all and everyone of you for taking time to share your view.. we learn together..............

Quoting MCFly
Here is what I see: The price dropped another time after a double top bear flag but the last leg showed messy and low momentum. Then accumulation build a base and buyers came in. Price left the zone with good mometum. When the price reached the supply zone the third time there appeared 2 pins but they weren't strong enough to drop the price. This is a hint that supply was consumed. The next strong hint was given when the little bearish candle after the 2 pins was engulfed by a bullish candle. An engulfing candle into a supply zone means strength....
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  • #493
  • Aug 2, 2011 1:27am Aug 2, 2011 1:27am
Quoting KennyZ
slightly different approach but nice analysis MCFly.. thank you..

main point was [for me and Red anyway] price went in demand with compression.. that's usually very good indication of the turning point coming soon..

here are some messy scalp trades i did on that chart.. on the move to north i have closed and re-bought few times.. that's scalper for you..

i like to thank you all and everyone of you for taking time to share your view.. we learn together..............
Kenny, for compression where the price went down, then you buy at the bottom demand (end of compression),
is your target at the "Start of Compression - Yellow triangle" ?
or is your target at the "higher Yellow Rectangle area" ?

As it was a compression, would such compression pattern usually launch to a much higher area like the higher Yellow Rectangle area ??

Thanks,
FB
  • #494
  • Aug 2, 2011 3:31am Aug 2, 2011 3:31am
thanks Orbital, that was a big help and nice analogy at the start hehe.

Can you tell me, do you approach m5 by trading m5 supply and demand levels? Or do you wait for price to hit h1 levels, then trade within these using m5? I would love to know how you go about this.
  • #495
  • Aug 2, 2011 4:14am Aug 2, 2011 4:14am
Quoting Ultimatus
thanks Orbital, that was a big help and nice analogy at the start hehe.

Can you tell me, do you approach m5 by trading m5 supply and demand levels? Or do you wait for price to hit h1 levels, then trade within these using m5? I would love to know how you go about this.
The higher the timeframe, the more powerful the supply and demand zones are. If you are going to trade the m5 timeframe, your targets and SL are going to be much much smaller. You enter in the m5 demand and take your FINAL profit at the opposing m5 supply, maybe letting one lot to run. Always trade with multiple lots... If you can only trade 1 lot, split it into 10 mini-lots. If you can trade only 1 mini-lot, split it into 10 micro lots and have 2, 3 or 4 targets. It gives you so much more flexibility!

Orbital again is a master scalper usually taking 3 to 10 pips with some runners that will net him 50 or 100 pips. He knows price structure amazingly well on these lower timeframes even on the tick chart and during the formation of a candle through 1000s of hours of screentime. There is no substitute for screentime.

Trading is a personal affair and only YOU can find out what timeframe is right for YOU. The lower the timeframe you work with, the quicker your reflexes have to be, the faster you have to think almost to the point you don't think when trading the tick charts and the more stressful it is.

Also thinking too much can be a killer and stir up your emotions, hence you need to have a trading plan that details your triggers for entry, exit and money management. When YOUR trigger appears, you don't think, you just take it and follow your trading plan. If after a 100 trades, you are not making a profit, you need to analyse all of these trades, identify what you have done wrong, change the plan accordingly and start again. Through this process, you will eventually come to the right place... emotion free trading with consistent returns. You have become a trading robot!

Good luck!
  • #496
  • Aug 2, 2011 6:50am Aug 2, 2011 6:50am
OK if you are trading m5, what do you do when price is inside an H1 level? Wait for price to react and build an m5 level then trade that?
  • #497
  • Aug 2, 2011 7:02am Aug 2, 2011 7:02am
Quoting Ultimatus
OK if you are trading m5, what do you do when price is inside an H1 level? Wait for price to react and build an m5 level then trade that?
Be very careful! Avoid trading against a higher timeframe zone, so yes if you're smart... wait or trade with the higher timeframe zone. Also if your trade m5, use h1 AND d1 levels as guidance and alerts as to when you might be trading against higher timeframes so that you can alter your strategy when price reaches those levels. Again, put it in your trading plan as to what your rules are when this occurs. Be sensible and don't get caught like a rabbit in headlights!

Your trading plan must cover ALL eventualities and answer all the questions that the market will throw at you.
  • #498
  • Edited 8:44am Aug 2, 2011 7:48am | Edited 8:44am
EU is now reacting off H1 level, so waiting for something on m5......

EDIT: OK that didn't happen, price has gone nearly 100 pips without giving a m5 demand level to trade off. I think I should have entered on the m15 bullish engulfing....thoughts anyone?
  • #499
  • Aug 2, 2011 10:50am Aug 2, 2011 10:50am
Quoting Ultimatus
EU is now reacting off H1 level, so waiting for something on m5......

EDIT: OK that didn't happen, price has gone nearly 100 pips without giving a m5 demand level to trade off. I think I should have entered on the m15 bullish engulfing....thoughts anyone?
If you missed the boat, then wait for a good supply level to go short. If you are a scalper or day trader, you have to change your bias at the drop of a hat based on price action.

The m15 bullish engulfing was a great signal to go long, but which timeframe are you trading from? I thought it was m5? Now you are bringing m15 into the picture. Triggers to enter should be based on your chosen timeframe. Keep it simple.
  • #500
  • Aug 2, 2011 10:55am Aug 2, 2011 10:55am
Quoting bbakker
If you missed the boat, then wait for a good supply level to go short. If you are a scalper or day trader, you have to change your bias at the drop of a hat based on price action.

The m15 bullish engulfing was a great signal to go long, but which timeframe are you trading from? I thought it was m5? Now you are bringing m15 into the picture. Triggers to enter should be based on your chosen timeframe. Keep it simple.
Understood.

tbh, I am still ironing out my method so to speak. I am thinking of taking h1 levels using m15 candles as I don't think it's safe to use m5 from these major levels?

Anyway, I am short EU from 1.425 off the m15 bearish candle, now at BE +2.
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