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  • #421
  • Jul 28, 2011 9:43am Jul 28, 2011 9:43am
Quoting forexhard
Here is how my system would have handled the last E/U CZ. It was a very choppy market this time, and over-all it's not looking good for coming out of this with an easy profit. This one will make you sweat a little. But not really, if you are using proper MM. Only the over-traders ever sweat a bad trade.

The rules are fine as they are. There is no sense changing your rules every time you have a loss. Accepting losses is just part of the job. If you are expecting zero losses then you are looking for a system that doesn't exist. So far I have been...
Thanks FxH, good to see you aren't using other price action filters on entries other than the 2 closes beyond the buffers. My long entry was valid, as the close with my charting was above the buffer. MT price feed variance unlikely to prove significant in the long run.
  • #422
  • Jul 28, 2011 9:57am Jul 28, 2011 9:57am
Quoting forexhard
Here is how my system would have handled the last E/U CZ. It was a very choppy market this time, and over-all it's not looking good for coming out of this with an easy profit. This one will make you sweat a little. But not really, if you are using proper MM. Only the over-traders ever sweat a bad trade.

The rules are fine as they are. There is no sense changing your rules every time you have a loss. Accepting losses is just part of the job. If you are expecting zero losses then you are looking for a system that doesn't exist. So far I have been...
Thanks for feedback FH. My post was not meant to be critical - far from it as what u have presented with this strategy is a real eyeopener for me on BO trading.. No problem accepting losses either just wanted to check I was following correctly.
On break 2 (long) both my break candles closed outside buffer zone - the bear candle only by 2 pips. On the following sell I was stopped by 1pip. Probably just a broker difference on both.

Thanks PH
  • #423
  • Jul 28, 2011 10:01am Jul 28, 2011 10:01am
Quoting Ph22
Thanks for feedback FH. My post was not meant to be critical - far from it as what u have presented with this strategy is a real eyeopener for me. No problem accepting losses either just wanted to check I was following correctly.
On break 2 (long) both my break candles closed outside buffer zone - the bear candle only by 2 pips. On the following sell I was stopped by 1pip. Probably just a broker difference on both.

Thanks PH
No prob. My post wasn't directed at anyone specifically.

Yes, broker price can vary. I wish I had your feed, because then I would have been stopped out with the 2nd bad trade already instead of floating like I am now.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #424
  • Jul 28, 2011 10:05am Jul 28, 2011 10:05am
Great explaination FH. I am printing this one out for reference. Loving this method.

SirWolf

Quoting forexhard
Here is how my system would have handled the last E/U CZ. It was a very choppy market this time, and over-all it's not looking good for coming out of this with an easy profit. This one will make you sweat a little. But not really, if you are using proper MM. Only the over-traders ever sweat a bad trade.

The rules are fine as they are. There is no sense changing your rules every time you have a loss. Accepting losses is just part of the job. If you are expecting zero losses then you are looking for a system that doesn't exist. So far I have been...
Believe and Achieve!
  • #425
  • Jul 28, 2011 10:05am Jul 28, 2011 10:05am
Quoting sidefx
Thanks FxH, good to see you aren't using other price action filters on entries other than the 2 closes beyond the buffers. My long entry was valid, as the close with my charting was above the buffer. MT price feed variance unlikely to prove significant in the long run.
No more filters are needed. If you want to be extra cautious, then wait for 3 candles instead of 2. But 2 breaking/closing candles works about 95% of the time, so I'm happy to go with that.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #426
  • Jul 28, 2011 12:45pm Jul 28, 2011 12:45pm
Nice charts FH, Thanks...

I have a Q: if this breaks to the north, would the consolidation just above be acting as a resistance and therefor not take the breakout to the north?
As i have watched and backtested, i have seen that it is very profitable to trade from CZ to another CZ. But when they are to close then maybe its not worth it........just my humble observation.
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  • #427
  • Jul 28, 2011 1:11pm Jul 28, 2011 1:11pm
Quoting lehmann
Nice charts FH, Thanks...

I have a Q: if this breaks to the north, would the consolidation just above be acting as a resistance and therefor not take the breakout to the north?
As i have watched and backtested, i have seen that it is very profitable to trade from CZ to another CZ. But when they are to close then maybe its not worth it........just my humble observation.
Those CZ's don't look tight to me. 30 pips high is too much for that pair. My recommendation would be to tighten your settings before looking for trades.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #428
  • Jul 28, 2011 1:14pm Jul 28, 2011 1:14pm
I am watching the USDJPY for a Breakout. Using Sq's indicator to help me.

To make sure I understand the system, I am going to write out my next steps, as I understand them from reading the thread. I am doing this with full expectation of a smack upside the head if I have it wrong .

I am watching for a second candle to close outside the CZ. Then issue an order in the direction of the second closed candle.

My TP will be set at 20. I am going to set my SL at the opposite side of the CZ plus 10, as the size of the CZ is only 14 pips as calculated by the last 30 days ADR.

T
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  • #429
  • Jul 28, 2011 7:41pm Jul 28, 2011 7:41pm
Hi

Just came across this thread. Looks very good. Started practising this method.
Many thanks to forexhard!!!
  • #430
  • Jul 28, 2011 8:30pm Jul 28, 2011 8:30pm
FH, as this is my first post in this thread - thanks for sharing! And hope thread continues to grow....

I would like to add one question - you mentioned before that different currency pairs require different box settings....

Is there a rule-of thumb how to optimize box settings? I guess that you only adjust the box height but leave the length around 22 x 15 min? Maybe something along the lines of looking at 5 trading days and adjust box to give only 3-4 "zones" within that time?

Thanks for your advise in advance
  • #431
  • Jul 28, 2011 11:33pm Jul 28, 2011 11:33pm
Hi;
I know most people on the forum use MetaTrader, and squalou wrote a nice indicator for FH's method. Just wondering

1) Am I allowed to use the source code to write a NinjaTrader indicator?

2) Are there any NT script developers on the forum who could help or write this?

Thanks
  • #432
  • Jul 29, 2011 9:14am Jul 29, 2011 9:14am
My last trade finally closed in profit.

This could have gone either way. It was a wild ride, and one of the roughest trades I've seen in months. But this had nothing really to do with my system and everything to do with the current debt limit talks in Washington.

Speaking of which, I won't be posting any more trades until that situation is settled.
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #433
  • Jul 29, 2011 9:22am Jul 29, 2011 9:22am
Thanks FH for showing us how that thrade played out. A quick question, where was your SL on this last trade? I think if I played it, mine SL would have been hit before the TP target.

Thanks FH and have a great weekend!

SirWolf

Quoting forexhard
My last trade finally closed in profit.

This could have gone either way. It was a wild ride, and one of the roughest trades I've seen in months. But this had nothing really to do with my system and everything to do with the current debt limit talks in Washington.

Speaking of which, I won't be posting any more trades until that situation is settled.
Believe and Achieve!
  • #434
  • Jul 29, 2011 9:39am Jul 29, 2011 9:39am
Quoting sirwolf
Thanks FH for showing us how that thrade played out. A quick question, where was your SL on this last trade?
...yes, the last piece in the jigsaw and probably one of the most important.
  • #435
  • Jul 29, 2011 9:40am Jul 29, 2011 9:40am
FxH:

Please give me a bit of critique on my application of your method. I caught the EURUSD updraft this morning. entered long after the PA broke above a CZ as shown below.

I broke the rule of waiting for the second candle to close above the CZ. I was also watching the GBPUSD and saw the PA moving so fast that I felt the risk of entering EURUSD before the close of the second candle was OK.

TP was set 25 pips above my entry point. Executed for 25 pips.

Where could I have improved my performance?
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  • #436
  • Jul 29, 2011 10:08am Jul 29, 2011 10:08am
Everyone, if you have been following my trades, then you know that I set my SL at the opposite side of the CZ.

Tpc23, If you would like personal mentoring, then contact me privately and we'll discuss it. Otherwise, I try not to comment on individual trades. But good for you if you're already pulling in real money with my system.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #437
  • Jul 29, 2011 10:17am Jul 29, 2011 10:17am
Quoting forexhard
Everyone, if you have been following my trades, then you know that I set my SL at the opposite side of the CZ.
Thanks FxH. Apologies for the inquisition - i notice your TP levels vary (post 30, 40 pips, this last trade 30 pips) but in order for you to pull the trigger, what is your minimum reward:risk potential, as the last trade was less than 1:1?
  • #438
  • Jul 29, 2011 10:24am Jul 29, 2011 10:24am
Quoting forexhard
But good for you if you're already pulling in real money with my system.

Well, demo money at this point. building enough confidence to go live.
  • #439
  • Jul 29, 2011 10:27am Jul 29, 2011 10:27am
Quoting forexhard
Everyone, if you have been following my trades, then you know that I set my SL at the opposite side of the CZ.

Hi FH,
For clarity re the above - I have been using your recommendations from the Tools thread where u posted the following:

@Squalou and Steve-

You two guys are talking about combining my system with some of your earlier robots. So before you do, I want to spell out how this works so well for me. And Steve, I hope this information will help you better prepare for your next round of backtesting too.

OK, so let's start this discussion by assuming everyone here knows precisely how to set up Squalou's indicator so that it only displays the very best CZ's. And for a CZ to qualify it can only be 30 pips high, or less, and contain no less than 22 M15 bars. Mine usually have 25. Like I said, I want only the very best.

Right. We're staring at a live CZ forming right in front of our eyes. The box, in order to form must contain 22 bars. So, on bar #26 the price breaks high, and that candle also closes above the line, and so I open a Long with an equal TP/SL of 25 pips.

But wait. Before my TP is hit, the price reverses and goes all the way down to knock out my SL.

But let's break this down:

CZ formed - check.
CZ height is 30 pips - check.
Price broke Hi - check.
Candle closed above the breakout line - check.
How many pips over the line did the candle close? 6 pips - check.
TP/SL was 25 pips both ways - check.
Price retraced and took out my SL - check.

So question: Where was my SL postioned when it was hit? Where on the chart was it?

Answer: It was 25 pips below where the breakout candle closed, which was 6 pips above the breakout line, which means that my SL was 19 pips below the breakout line, which means that I am once again sitting exactly dead center of the Consolidation Zone. Get it? I'm right back to where I started! But the Consolidation Zone hasn't moved. I just went for a little ride, but now I'm right back to where I started from.

So question: With a super tight CZ, how many of these reversals will happen before price finally chooses a direction and takes off for a good 50 pips or more?

Answer: Dunno. None? 1? 2? 3? But the attached pic shows a breakout from earlier today (July 21) which is a pretty clear example of what to expect.

Like I keep saying people, it's so easy it's hard.

FxH

The above implies that u use a fixed sl/tp of 25 pips and no buffer - have u now re-thought both? (bold highlighted by me).

Thanks,
PH
  • #440
  • Jul 29, 2011 11:01am Jul 29, 2011 11:01am
PH22, the trader is always in control of his trades, not the other way around. I am very flexible in my approach, and I feel this is one of the keys to my success. But by flexible I don't mean 'all over the place'. I just mean flexible. Which is difficult to quantify since it primarily is based on instinct born of thousands of hours of watching price action. The difference of having a fixed 25-pip SL instead of a SL that uses the opposite side of the box, is a difference of only about 10 pips. I'm believing and trusting that anyone here can learn when to use one versus the other on their own once they have put in the same time as me.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
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