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US Debt Ceiling Crisis Thread

  • #21
  • Jul 28, 2011 8:19pm Jul 28, 2011 8:19pm
Quoting kibescorp
Okay, if the debt limit is NOT raised, interest rates spike across the board, and the stock market crashes ... what does it all mean for the DOLLAR?

All I care about is whether the dollar would lose or gain value as a result (i.e., should you be long or short?)
Seems like noone really knows what's going to happen, some people predict flight out of the dollar, others say liquidity crisis would create demand for the dollar. Gold, CHF and JPY should rise, USD will probably be volatile at the beginning but without clear direction.
  • #22
  • Jul 28, 2011 10:18pm Jul 28, 2011 10:18pm
http://dealbreaker.com/2011/07/donal...eiling-debate/

By Bess Levin:

"It’d be one thing if you had Trump as your lead negotiator but unfortunately for America, you don’t."



Who's editing, shouldn't that be 'fortunately'?
  • #23
  • Jul 28, 2011 11:06pm Jul 28, 2011 11:06pm
I'm currently short USD/CAD. Wondering if I should pull out before any "craziness" starts.
  • #24
  • Jul 29, 2011 1:58am Jul 29, 2011 1:58am
Quoting cesarnc
Yo.

I know I've been absent for a good while, quit trading forex for lack of competence and I was sucked in by the 2008 crisis. But I keep eyes on the markets everyday.

Now comes the US debt ceiling crisis and I'm watching it like a hawk. After hours of TV and internet, I came down to the conclusion that the US debt itself is not the problem. Politicians are the problem.

I don't intend to discuss politics here. On what concerns us, there is a BLACK cloud coming fast and it's called "uncertanty". As we speak, CNBC's headline is[color=Black]...
Good idea Ceasar!

Id like to approach this from my angle, a place that makes sense to me, so ill do that. There have been some kind of government in the US for a long time right? I think its safe to say, that the less the people understand the more distant they are from what that government wants to do and what it does. That means that what happens to the US has to do with the knowledge or the ignorance and the participation of the people in the governing process of the country.

Before i go any further, thing about this: Can power be stolen or can it only be given?

So then, consider if the power of the US government has been stolen or given to the ones that has it now. Consider if you are certain about your view, or if you are uncertain.

Its quite easy to stay away from politics on this issue, lets just stick to the physical economy for a while. I listened to Paul Craig Roberts yesterday and i think he is a wise man and he echoed a lot of my thoughts on this: The US is not producing the things that the population uses. It doesnt have the oil the population use on its own soil, and all the toys, phones, TVs, clothes, cars, furniture and so on is often made in India or China and shipped to the US. Even a lot of the food eaten is not made in the US, or if it is as is the case with corn products, its subsidized by the government.

7 out of 10 trillions of GDP is consumption. From above its clear that these things being consumed is often not made in the US. So the jobs created by the consumption is not US jobs but foreign jobs. So then, what is the US people supposed to be working with?

At the moment the US manages to sort of limp along through using the military. When ever a country will not agree to sell things cheaply to the US, economic hitmen, jackals, assasins and if none of that works, the US invades. Please have a look at John Perkins work if you want some info on this, if you dont already know about him. It doesnt always work so well and some countries cannot be invaded without a lot of serious ramifications, but so far it has sort of worked.

However, this strategy of not producing but invading have not been working all that great since about 1971, when the US ran out of gold to fund its dollars. To kind of even the score temporary and fund its army, the US has been lending money from a lot of countries like Saudi Arabia, China, the EU and so on. But like we now know, the time has come when the math of paying the interest on that debt doesnt add up.

Its extremely important to view the debt as a function of this compounded strategy.

So what to do? Change the strategy: production instead of war. I dont see there is any other choice. Because there is no other choice, this is what will eventually happen. It will happen exactly when the amount of "US suffering" gets larger then the amount of "US stupidity".

I absolutely in every sense refute the idea of tax increase, there is nothing left to tax.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #25
  • Jul 29, 2011 4:53am Jul 29, 2011 4:53am
There's nothing left to tax, but there's a lot of taxes to raise ...

BTW:
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section..._day_4_140.jpg

Add to the discussion the possible AAA-rating drop by S&P...

On the dollar, I have no idea on what's going to happen.

Actually, dollar would have to go down.

However what will move the markets will be the flight to safety, which was always about buying dollars, not selling dollars.

I think dollar will get volatile and crazy while the markets arrange. I would bet on CHF, oil and gold as safe heavens, at least for a short term.

Dow Fut -55 as of now.
  • #26
  • Jul 29, 2011 5:25am Jul 29, 2011 5:25am
And you have to thank God US politicians haven't learned from Brazilian ones.

Here they mastered the art of raising taxes without people noticing. It works like this:

- You come up with a new regulation - on traffic rules, store's windows, out-doors, whatever. And to each new regulaiton, a HUGE fine.

This way, instead of pissing off 1,000 people for an extra dollar in taxes, you piss off one guy for a thousand.

Just two days ago BR Government put 1% Financial Operation Tax for contracts betting against the dollar. The excuse is to prevent speculative moves.

The outcome? Extra US$ 500 million - A DAY - in taxes.
  • #27
  • Jul 29, 2011 5:56am Jul 29, 2011 5:56am
Quoting cesarnc
And you have to thank God US politicians haven't learned from Brazilian ones.

Here they mastered the art of raising taxes without people noticing. It works like this:

- You come up with a new regulation - on traffic rules, store's windows, out-doors, whatever. And to each new regulaiton, a HUGE fine.

This way, instead of pissing off 1,000 people for an extra dollar in taxes, you piss off one guy for a thousand.

Just two days ago BR Government put 1% Financial Operation Tax for contracts betting against the dollar. The excuse is to...
Im afraid so, wouldnt want to have a small to medium sized company in the US right now.

The smart long term bond people probably pay little attention to the rating of the rating agencies, its just the pension fund people that is totally out of the loop and some others who look at that stuff seriously.

Swords to plowshares my friends, thats what needs to be done. Bring the troops home, enough blood of children have been spilled.

Peace on earth
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #28
  • Jul 29, 2011 6:49am Jul 29, 2011 6:49am
My opinion... Americans (as an individual, country or government) are the most lazy, money hungry and elitist sobs out there. We are short sighted and basically live in the now. We tend to throw our lifestyles out there for everyone to emulat.e ..."greatest nation on the planet, land of the free...etc, etc). Above all else we are a prideful people who tend to believe our shit don't stink.We will not allow our country to appear weak on the international forum

Now with that cornflakes box physiology:-

Any politicos (Reps or Dems) messing with those "ideals" will find it hard put to muster any support in the coming elections. To become a cliche like Greece?...Never..... Austerity measures?.....Hah!..Allow the great defender to stop whoring/waring (pun intended) due to financial instability will not be allowed.

This little circus is all about building up political mileage for the upcoming elections.

To me, the fact of the matter is that we are all about the "short term", sure folks talk about where we will be down the road, but that is always a worry for another day.I need to worry about paying the bills now.. not 6 months from now.

Folks talk about Obama spending more that others and spending is outta control. What do we expect??? We made this monster with our own personnel greed. Everyone was clamoring for debt relief, banks were failing left and right, we would have found some way to impeach his butt if instead of spending he had gone with Austerity measures (see how well that is going in Greece) instead, let the banks close, let small business wither away etc etc.

Some people have very short memories, christ you could have actually feel the desperation of the masses when that crap was going down.

Fixing the debt is a problem that will not happen because mentally the populace has not bought in and will never buy in. Not when the disparity in the wealth distribution in this country is so huge.

We need to invade Venezuela , that should help...lots of Oil and I am sure the government can find "weapons of mass destruction".
  • #29
  • Jul 29, 2011 7:24am Jul 29, 2011 7:24am
Quoting Cypr3ss
We need to invade Venezuela , that should help...lots of Oil and I am sure the government can find "weapons of mass destruction".
LOL.... Too late buddy, Jeb Bush shoulda been elected for that

If nothing comes out TODAY - I'm giving 80% chance of a BLACK MONDAY, no matter what happens during the weekend.

There is an increasing chance the US will come up with something far away from what has to be done and markets will punish that with severity.
  • #30
  • Jul 29, 2011 7:26am Jul 29, 2011 7:26am
The US Government will take it's time will solve this problem in last hour. Nobody in the world interested in Dooms day of US Economy.
  • #31
  • Jul 29, 2011 7:48am Jul 29, 2011 7:48am
or...

http://tvpnc.org/

Cheers
  • #32
  • Jul 29, 2011 7:52am Jul 29, 2011 7:52am
Interesting link..... on a side note.... the market has now gone apeshit...money seems to be following into CHF
  • #33
  • Jul 29, 2011 8:09am Jul 29, 2011 8:09am
Quoting Cypr3ss
[b]Folks talk about Obama spending more that others and spending is outta control. What do we expect??? We made this monster with our own personnel greed. Everyone was clamoring for debt relief, banks were failing left and right, we would have found some way to impeach his butt if instead of spending he had gone with Austerity measures (see how well that is going in Greece) instead, let the banks close, let small business wither away etc etc.

Some people have very short memories, christ you could have actually feel the desperation of the masses...
Excellent Memory sir , Can You kindly share with us how you have managed to avoid the massive amnesia currently happening now.. Mr Gekko and I are extremely happy we are not being blamed for anything at the moment(excellent job on our end) . Frankly , folks are eager to do it all over again.

Obviously , we didn't do a good enough Job because unlike some folks on this thread , people like you still have some recollection and realize there are consequences to actions and they just don't disappear when you leave office..

Again , Fantastic memory sir..

Inserted Video
  • #34
  • Jul 29, 2011 8:32am Jul 29, 2011 8:32am
Quoting Turtle
If you pass the the Ron Paul/Barney Frank marijuana bill, the US would not have a problem.

Just my two pips.

HOLLA
I aprove this message......
The Chonchy
  • #35
  • Jul 29, 2011 8:34am Jul 29, 2011 8:34am
Quoting chonchy
I aprove this message......
Sign me up baby! Light my fire!
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #36
  • Jul 29, 2011 8:34am Jul 29, 2011 8:34am
Quoting cesarnc
LOL.... Too late buddy, Jeb Bush shoulda been elected for that

If nothing comes out TODAY - I'm giving 80% chance of a BLACK MONDAY, no matter what happens during the weekend.

There is an increasing chance the US will come up with something far away from what has to be done and markets will punish that with severity.
"black monday"
The Chonchy
  • #37
  • Jul 29, 2011 8:36am Jul 29, 2011 8:36am
CAP, CUT, BALANCE,

FOR all the foreigners out there, who aren't American, LISTEN UP, I know your forex traders and all, but the good doc knows what he is talking about.

We need to give up imperialism overseas, before we raise taxes.
  • #38
  • Edited Nov 6, 2017 9:44am Jul 29, 2011 8:39am | Edited Nov 6, 2017 9:44am
Quoting yaed
Sign me up baby! Light my fire!



Attached Image



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The Chonchy
  • #39
  • Jul 29, 2011 8:40am Jul 29, 2011 8:40am
Quoting EmptyEterniT
CAP, CUT, BALANCE,

FOR all the foreigners out there, who aren't American, LISTEN UP, I know your forex traders and all, but the good doc knows what he is talking about.

We need to give up imperialism overseas, before we raise taxes.
well he saids he was signing something that came out to be some ealse, so he is against the debt ceiling raise.....and I aprove this message.......
The Chonchy
  • #40
  • Jul 29, 2011 8:46am Jul 29, 2011 8:46am
Quoting taomql4
Excellent Memory sir , Can You kindly share with us how you have managed to avoid the massive amnesia currently happening now.. Mr Gekko and I are extremely happy we are not being blamed for anything at the moment(excellent job on our end) . Frankly , folks are eager to do it all over again.

Obviously , we didn't do a good enough Job because unlike some folks on this thread , people like you still have some recollection and realize there are consequences to actions and they just don't disappear when you leave office..

Again , Fantastic memory...

well I'm for austerity messures, cuts and no raise in the debt ceiling and no taxes increase, but that is only me, I agree that the majority is with the flow, nintendo, and easy spending and no worries, soapaperas etc........but what about their kids future? don't politicos have kids? aren't this kids going to grow up? and what about their kids, this country enjoy one of the most rich economies in the 1800, begining of 1900 up untill some politico sold the country to the federal reserve bank, federal by name by private cause it has a board of directors........and greed is good if is followed by prosperity of the all, not a few........
The Chonchy
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