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95% winners live test

  • #121
  • Jul 28, 2011 11:15pm Jul 28, 2011 11:15pm
Quoting StayFocused
Well this was just a small hiccup on your way to the top. We all have losing trades, some more than others but I surely respect you for being upfront and honest.

I still have no clue exactly what it is you do but I agree with your way of thinking. I believe forex is a business that can be mastered in many ways.

Some risk 2% per trade, some risk 25% but the bottom line is to make money and by the looks and sounds of things, you are making money.

I don't want to see you close the thread at all as I am just getting back to FF myself and came...

Thanks for you kind words. I have received unexpected posts from you guys after my loss. I expected, (and they may still come) The guys calling me a noob because I just threw away 45k. You know in some cases I deserve it but still I can take a gamble every once in a while right?

Stay tuned guys. I'm currently working on modifications...

New things I'm trying to do.

-change the system to make the TP's more flexable.
-working with the SL to see if there are more options for a flexable SL.
-Keep the win % as close to 100% as possible

Cubby

PS. See my next post for changes....
  • #122
  • Jul 28, 2011 11:22pm Jul 28, 2011 11:22pm
Ok now for the changes. I still need more testing obviously but what do you guys think of this risk/reward?

I've changed SL and TP

What I'm looking for here is a small break out. If I dont hit some kind of profit with in 1 hour of trade entry I close trade no matter where it is.

Hint...
If trade is in Profit after 3 m15 candles I will close it for profit.

Here's what I have so far.
Below are dates and pip amounts. This is now a bit of a scalping/breakout system. Keep you posted on more testing

95% live test system mod
7/28, 6
7/27, 14
7/26, 6
7/25, 26
7/22, 25
7/21, 6
7/20, 10
7/19, 17
7/18, 28
7/15, 6
7/14, break even
7/13, 17
7/12, 4
7/11, 5
7/8, -40 pip loss
7/7, 22
7/6, 10
7/5, 7
7/5, -7 pip loss
7/5, 2
6/30, -2 pip loss
6/29, 15
6/28, 7
6/27, 43

=227 pips

Let me know what you think of the changes...

Cubby
  • #123
  • Jul 28, 2011 11:22pm Jul 28, 2011 11:22pm
Got to give it to you Cubby, you had the balls to trade live infront of everyone with a big size account. So many of the big mouths and system sellers out here on FF dont have the balls to do something like this. Really commendable, even in a loss you have won some big points in my view. Kudos to you bro, well done.


Here are some other things to consider while trading your system...

i) have you had problems with withdrawing big amounts(10k +) from anyof these off shore brokers(iam assuming you are US based, from your FF profile). You might want to try a big withdrawal with them to see what kind of problems you might encounter.

ii) You might want to withdraw as soon as you have 100% profit in the account. That way you have recouped your initial deposit and you can now trade peacefully with free money.
  • #124
  • Jul 28, 2011 11:26pm Jul 28, 2011 11:26pm
Quoting bravester
Got to give it to you Cubby, you had the balls to trade live infront of everyone with a big size account. So many of the big mouths and system sellers out here on FF dont have the balls to do something like this. Really commendable, even in a loss you have won some big points in my view. Kudos to you bro, well done.


Here are some other things to consider while trading your system...

i) have you had problems with withdrawing big amounts(10k +) from anyof these off shore brokers(iam assuming you are US based, from your FF profile). You might...
good question here. I always test my brokers withdraws before I deposit large amounts. I really like Trading-Point. They have treated me well so far. There spreads are a little high but there price and execution are top notch.

Cubby
  • #125
  • Jul 28, 2011 11:38pm Jul 28, 2011 11:38pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
good question here. I always test my brokers withdraws before I deposit large amounts. I really like Trading-Point. They have treated me well so far. There spreads are a little high but there price and execution are top notch.

Cubby

That is the most important part of trading and making money , you should have confidence that your profits will be paid out. Many of these small offshoots will try to cheat you when it comes to withdrawal time. i have also been with brokers in the past that treated me well until it came time for withdrawal. you dont want your hard work to go to waste. from my previous experiences, i would say the most important thing to have is a reliable broker.
  • #126
  • Jul 28, 2011 11:49pm Jul 28, 2011 11:49pm
I think your modifications are worth being tested and from the past month, making 227 pips is great. You say that you changed the SL and the TP so that may help you out. I see you had one SL of -40 pips, is that the new SL?

I believe that exiting within 1 hour is a great idea also. I believe the key is to limit your exposure to the markets as much as possible and that truly helps.

My personal opinion is that as long as you can keep the win % as close to what you had in the past, it's worth giving a shot. Like others have said, you put real big money on the line and you deserve much respect for sharing that here at a public forum. I look forward to your future post.

I sent you a PM regarding your previous way of trading.

Quoting Cubbybgood
Ok now for the changes. I still need more testing obviously but what do you guys think of this risk/reward?

I've changed SL and TP

What I'm looking for here is a small break out. If I dont hit some kind of profit with in 1 hour of trade entry I close trade no matter where it is.

Hint...
If trade is in Profit after 3 m15 candles I will close it for profit.

Here's what I have so far.
Below are dates and pip amounts. This is now a bit of a scalping/breakout system. Keep you posted on more testing

95% live test system mod
7/28, 6
7/27, 14
7/26,...
Changing my life one pip at a time!
  • #127
  • Jul 28, 2011 11:59pm Jul 28, 2011 11:59pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
Well, there it is guys! I got my loss!

Just one of those trades I still have another 25k to through at this thing. I will use less risk next time making some modifications as well.

Last time the system showed a loss was on 5/18 so it's been a while

Just one of those days I guess.

I knew what I was getting into here like I said before. It's a bit unfortunate that this trade was my last one before I broke down the risk.

Just bad luck I guess.

Well that will probably be it for this thread. I'm sure people will leave now. Thanks for...


That must be hard. I checked your live account and saw a -90% loss, decided to check in. But good luck for next time, I hope you decide to continue the thread as I will still be following.
  • #128
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:04am Jul 29, 2011 12:04am
More results. I have 2 months done. These are early results right now. They are accurate but I think there may be some things that can be done to perfect it. If you guys agree to give me some help with this thing I think I will share it. You guys have been very kind tonight so I think I want to share. I just hope to many people do not trade it and mess things up. I will share both systems!

I will share the system tomorrow or saturday. Keep you guys posted. Should I share it here or make a thread on the Systems page?



6/24, 8
6/23, 16
6/22, 17
6/21, 4
6/20, 18
6/17, 2
6/16, 24 pip loss
6/15, 22 pip loss
6/14, 10
6/13, 4
6/10, 16
6/9, 40
6/8, 13
6/7, 14
6/6, 12 pip loss
6/3, 16
6/2, 15 pip loss
6/1, 6 pip loss
5/31, 4 pip loss
5/30, 52
5/26, 2 pip loss
5/25, 3

=148

Total of 375 pips in 2 months. Not bad for trading only once a day! Hmmm. This system seems almost entirely different from the first. Anyone else interested in exploring it more or do you guys have your eyes on the 95-98% system?

Cubby
  • #129
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:09am Jul 29, 2011 12:09am
Quoting Cubbybgood
More results. I have 2 months done. These are early results right now. They are accurate but I think there may be some things that can be done to perfect it. If you guys agree to give me some help with this thing I think I will share it. You guys have been very kind tonight so I think I want to share. I just hope to many people do not trade it and mess things up. I will share both systems!

I will share the system tomorrow or saturday. Keep you guys posted. Should I share it here or make a thread on the Systems page?



6/24, 8
6/23, 16
6/22,...
I think you should share just one system if you decide to share. Tht way you have consolation in the fact that one of your systems is being used by only you and not too many people. Just my opinion
  • #130
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:17am Jul 29, 2011 12:17am
I think that is very gracious of you to decide to share. I'm more than willing to help with anything that you need help with.

Me personally, I don't have a preference on which system you should share. How can one complain with a 90% or higher win rate!

I look forward to reading what you are going to post in the near future.

Quoting Cubbybgood
More results. I have 2 months done. These are early results right now. They are accurate but I think there may be some things that can be done to perfect it. If you guys agree to give me some help with this thing I think I will share it. You guys have been very kind tonight so I think I want to share. I just hope to many people do not trade it and mess things up. I will share both systems!

I will share the system tomorrow or saturday. Keep you guys posted. Should I share it here or make a thread on the Systems page?



6/24, 8
6/23, 16
6/22,...
Changing my life one pip at a time!
  • #131
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:30am Jul 29, 2011 12:30am
I decided to share everything. I think the modifications will be good for those not wanting to use the 95 pip SL. Also for those that dont mind some small losses and stretching out there TP's.

I will show you all how to work the system using 10 pip TP and a 95-pip SL

Then on top of that how to use the modifications. I think you will be impressed by the mods. I dont think an idea like this has yet to be explored on FF regarding the mods.

As of now the mods are looking very promising. They should lower the stress trading this system. It would be nice to get some help from you guys on tweeking them for more profit and win %. Using the changes will make for more losses but they should be small. Profits should out way losses by a large margin though. It's just we wont be dealing with a 95% system using the changes but hey, it's your choice if you want to use them.

I will start a demo acount with mods tomorrow and I'll post it here. Start live again on monday.

Thanks again all for your imput!

Cubby
  • #132
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:46am Jul 29, 2011 12:46am
I can't wait for you to share the system. I also think that sharing both ways is a great idea also. That gives people the option on which method they want to test and share back their findings.



Quoting Cubbybgood
I decided to share everything. I think the modifications will be good for those not wanting to use the 95 pip SL. Also for those that dont mind some small losses and stretching out there TP's.

I will show you all how to work the system using 10 pip TP and a 95-pip SL

Then on top of that how to use the modifications. I think you will be impressed by the mods. I dont think an idea like this has yet to be explored on FF regarding the mods.

As of now the mods are looking very promising. They should lower the stress trading this system. It would...
Changing my life one pip at a time!
  • #133
  • Jul 29, 2011 2:03am Jul 29, 2011 2:03am
Cubby, sorry it's turned out this way, I am in the same trade but for a lesser amount, however when the price had gone about 70 pips against me I opened a buy, after that price started to come down again so I added another sell, as it stands now if price falls another 126 pips I will be at breakeven, this is similar to the "lock" method suggested earlier by someone, we will see what happens.

I am going to continue developing your 10/95 system as we knew from the outset there would be losses.
  • #134
  • Jul 29, 2011 2:10am Jul 29, 2011 2:10am
I've been following this thread from the beginning and I'ts been really exciting. You really seem to be a great guy Cubbybgood and I really hope the best for you. Thanks for deciding to share the systems with us, we all appreciate it!
  • #135
  • Jul 29, 2011 2:59am Jul 29, 2011 2:59am
Hi Cubby,

again, the reason why this system seems solid is because of the high win % per trade. You have to realize that we still don't know the actual win % of the 95SL system (a 200 trade test means absolutely nothing in the long run). If this system has only an actual 92% win rate, then it is a losing system in the long run (negative expected value and profit factor smaller than 1). However, If you have a 50% win system with a 1:2 risk reward ratio then you have a profit factor of 2 (you win twice as much as you loose). I don't understand why people on those forums are focusing only on win % of individual trades. In isolation, this percentage doesnt mean anything at all. One should focus on the combination of win % and reward:risk.. The combination of these two things is expressed as the profit factor. This factor measures the actual profitability of your system.

As an example: If we could achieve 60% win rate in combination with an average 1:2 risk reward per trade then we would have a profit factor of 3. A profit factor of 3 in the trading business is considered almost impossible, so aim for that. Aiming for 99% win % per trade is pointless if your system ends up loosing money in the long run because of the bad risk reward (and low profit factor.)
  • #136
  • Jul 29, 2011 3:03am Jul 29, 2011 3:03am
Quoting bravester
...from my previous experiences, i would say the most important thing to have is a reliable broker.
I find it quite astonishing that in forex trading very few think of Interactive Brokers. Perhaps because minimum deposit is 10K. True ECN, reliable, tight spreads, high liquidity - and ... well, a crappy software. Just buy a good 3rd party software and you have one of the best trading solutions on earth. Withdrawals of 50K - 100K are no problem with them.
  • #137
  • Jul 29, 2011 4:16am Jul 29, 2011 4:16am
Quoting Cubbybgood
... This is now a bit of a scalping/breakout system. ...
Looks interesting. If you need a precise backtest, let me know
  • #138
  • Jul 29, 2011 4:22am Jul 29, 2011 4:22am
Unlucky Cubby!

The tweaked system looks pretty good

Fascinating to follow your journey on this one!
  • #139
  • Edited 6:06am Jul 29, 2011 5:49am | Edited 6:06am
Quoting TraderJF
I find it quite astonishing that in forex trading very few think of Interactive Brokers. Perhaps because minimum deposit is 10K. True ECN, reliable, tight spreads, high liquidity - and ... well, a crappy software. Just buy a good 3rd party software and you have one of the best trading solutions on earth. Withdrawals of 50K - 100K are no problem with them.
I agree. IB is a really really good br0ker but without MetaTrader you won't see anything posted here on FF about them.

Most of my money is with IB and I've been able to write my own automated trading systems in C++ using their API. But it's not nearly as convenient as MetaTrader.

BTW I don't trade forex with IB. Most of my trading activity is with stock and index options. Options seems to be the only way I've found to really make money in the markets.

Good god cubby, when do you sleep? You seem to be posting around the clock.
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #140
  • Jul 29, 2011 6:20am Jul 29, 2011 6:20am
I'm on the road so I have strange hours. Lol.

I'll be posting the system on the first post later this afternoon. I hope all of you benifit from it in one way or another.

See you later this afternoon with some pics, info and attachments!

By the way, always test your brokers first because a lot of times they can be like casinos and won't pay out.

Cubby
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