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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #99,441
  • Jul 28, 2011 3:12pm Jul 28, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting jdl
Did you mean a break around 1.3045?
Thanks.
John
Yes, good catch.
  • #99,442
  • Jul 28, 2011 3:13pm Jul 28, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting kruger
Thanks for comment Mike.



Snowly, what is your thought process about defining stop loss level in case of touch trades?

Thanks.
I don't use SL; or seldom, when I can't stick around.


But for instance - today - alarm beeps on closing to .8745 on eur/gbp(a horrid pair - everything is so cluttered). Watch, like(ok, eur is crap, but really - the whole selloff was based on "feeling" and anyway, it's as bankrupt as gbp and if the index drops 1.5% on "feeling" it'll rebound probably).

I wait abit(scratch a plan, wait 5 mins, see if I still want in) - was coming full speed so it was bound to break the level by a bit and here every pip matters(did I mention the pair is almost as bad as cad/jpy?). Hop up at .8742.

mental sl - .8725. Hard sl - .869. Mental sl means - if touched, set close order at be and wait - either it's hit and I'm out at be or the sl is hit, but don't touch the trade anymore.

However, why I had mental at .8725... really hard to say. I'm risk averse - that's probably the explanation(otherwise, really... break .87 without retrace - fat chance).

However, there is a rule imho - you must adjust sl/risk depending on how much you trust that trade. It's not a one size fits all; and how risk averse you are. It's really very depending on your character - otherwise, everyone would use the same. It's one of those situations where it'd be better if not to be a hypocrite with yourself.

Also, if you risk the same in each trade, I'd say it's bad; if you consider each trade equally good, also I think you don't look close enough.
  • #99,443
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:14pm Jul 28, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting March2011
BEOB + Breakout
I sure hope that you waited for the break of the bar. That bar plopped right down on top of one heck of a huge S/R area...

Ryan

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 7-28-11 4hr.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #99,444
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:26pm Jul 28, 2011 4:26pm
Quoting Mrgreener
This is my first ever post with a chart in, hope it works.

I spotted this Pinbar on EUR NZD, entry would be at 1.6510, FTA estimated at 1.6549. I have noted the existing downtrend, although 4H is showing up as the start of an Uptrend.

Hope this provokes some discussion, my first foray into trading J16 and Pinbars. Steve.
I wouldnt trade that if I were you. The VERY BEST setups occur at previous supports or resistances. Take a loot at the Eur/Aud and you should be able to spot the difference right away.
  • #99,445
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:35pm Jul 28, 2011 4:35pm
Quoting snowly
that if you manage to have constant good results with charting ignore debt and fundamentals and if it's good to buy usd or not and just stick to what works. If the chart says "buy usd" and your method works, buy usd.

Just take into acct. that it's probably not the best time for trading so be cautious and that it's possible to have higher volatility so adjust your positions accordingly(i.e. - take smaller positions then usual).
I don't usually take news or announcements into account as I believe that most items are priced into the charts already. That having been said, I will probs be on the sidelines with pairs until there is some clarity in the USD. It will make sense to get in once there is a clear direction, but that is not the case right now. Unrest is something that I believe will cause the charts react to things a bit differently than usual. As you say, higher volatility and lack of direction will likely be the result.

Ryan
  • #99,446
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:36pm Jul 28, 2011 4:36pm
What do you guys think of AU?

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1311888928-clip-21kb.png

AUD/USD pretty much just made its all time high, retraced to a strong trendline and formed a bullish pin with the trend.

I set my limit orders, but I'd like to hear your opinions.
  • #99,447
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:48pm Jul 28, 2011 4:48pm
Hi Thermobee,

The EUR AUD does look a better option, the pin being formed off prior resistance and above the BRN. Entry at break of the Pin and I estimate the FTA to be 1.3119 (I am a newbie though).

Steve
Enter Signature
  • #99,448
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:49pm Jul 28, 2011 4:49pm
Quoting deankenny21
nice daily could be forming pb on euraud triple bottom at 1.2920 a close above 1.3 would get me in long aiming for FTA to take some profits at last swing low at 1.31 then move stop to be on remainder of position and just see where it goes

what do you guys think?
This was the only chart that struck me as interesting today. I do like the reaction off of the 1.3000 BRN. The pin itself has a nice nose which I really like. The low of the pin is also reacting off of previous lows which is ideal. It would be an almost instant buy for me if the close was higher than the open, but it is not. That having been said it is not a definite no, but I am a bit undecided for now.

Ryan

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud 7-28-11 daily.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #99,449
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:51pm Jul 28, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting tas0s
What do you guys think of AU?

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1311888928-clip-21kb.png

AUD/USD pretty much just made its all time high, retraced to a strong trendline and formed a bullish pin with the trend.

I set my limit orders, but I'd like to hear your opinions.

Give us a better idea of your trade plan and all of your reasons for entry. Once you toss those up I will post my thoughts. Just curious about all parameters you used in your entry decision.

Ryan
  • #99,450
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:54pm Jul 28, 2011 4:54pm
Quoting Mrgreener
Hi Thermobee,

The EUR AUD does look a better option, the pin being formed off prior resistance and above the BRN. Entry at break of the Pin and I estimate the FTA to be 1.3119 (I am a newbie though).

Steve
I would say that you need to be concerned about 1.3100. It's a RN with a bar low right there. I like this trade too but the close wasn't great for me so I will probably pass.

Best of luck

Jacob
  • #99,451
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:55pm Jul 28, 2011 4:55pm
Just checking the EUR NZD monthly chart it does appear that the EURO is at an all time low (Support). This Low was last achieved in Dec 2005.

Could that add some weight to the proposed trade..

Where else is there for this pair to go...

Steve
Enter Signature
  • #99,452
  • Jul 28, 2011 5:06pm Jul 28, 2011 5:06pm
Quoting gungriffin
Give us a better idea of your trade plan and all of your reasons for entry. Once you toss those up I will post my thoughts. Just curious about all parameters you used in your entry decision.

Ryan
AU currently trending up, so I'm only looking for longs, made an all time high, retraced to a trendline and S/R line, and formed a bullish pin on H4.

I set a order to buy at the 50% line of that pin so I get a better entry price, and set my stop right below the low.
  • #99,453
  • Jul 28, 2011 5:14pm Jul 28, 2011 5:14pm
  •  Atom
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: An atom..no more..probably less! | 44 Posts
Quoting tas0s
What do you guys think of AU?

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1311888928-clip-21kb.png

AUD/USD pretty much just made its all time high, retraced to a strong trendline and formed a bullish pin with the trend.

I set my limit orders, but I'd like to hear your opinions.
I have a little bit different trend line on H4 which does not touch the recent PB. on the H1 chart I see a double top which was brokeen down, and price is retesting now the 1.100 area. This tells me that price might go down more. Probably I would go long with a bullish H1 PA @ 1.0950 area (blue box), because there will be confluence: support area and a good touch of the uptrend line and a 23 fibo. At the moment, if I get a bearish PA on H1 or maybe M30 timeframes I would go short to 1.0960 area.
just MHO
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #99,454
  • Jul 28, 2011 5:14pm Jul 28, 2011 5:14pm
Quoting Mrgreener
This is my first ever post with a chart in, hope it works.

I spotted this Pinbar on EUR NZD, entry would be at 1.6510, FTA estimated at 1.6549. I have noted the existing downtrend, although 4H is showing up as the start of an Uptrend.

Hope this provokes some discussion, my first foray into trading J16 and Pinbars. Steve.

HEY STEVE!!! Glad to see you here Keep the charts a comin' bud.

My thoughts on this one are as follows:

Anything can be traded so long as it meets your criteria and you have a plan in place.

That having been said, I didn't even look twice at this chart. It didn't even register as a potential trade for me. Here are the reasons why:

1) The close was below the BRN. That is very no bueno in my book.
2) The pin looks to be reacting off of the preceeding bar lows, but not in our favor. It looks more stuck below then.

3) I just don't see where the strength would come from on this one. It seems to be a bar floating out there. That might be the worst offender for me. I like to see where the support and resistance are coming from. Does that makes sense? The S/R and BRNs are like evidence for our trade story. The stronger the evidence that we find, the better our case is. Doesn't always mean that we will get a conviction, but the better our case for the conviction (gain in the account).

Figured I would toss those thoughts out there to chew on
Ryan

Here is my chart so that you can see it with a line at the BRN
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd 7-28-11 daily.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #99,455
  • Jul 28, 2011 5:14pm Jul 28, 2011 5:14pm
Quoting Mrgreener
Just checking the EUR NZD monthly chart it does appear that the EURO is at an all time low (Support). This Low was last achieved in Dec 2005.

Could that add some weight to the proposed trade..

Where else is there for this pair to go...

Steve
Hey Steve

Price can always go lower. Pick any pair and look back to an instance when we were in a situation where you could say that. There are too many times to show where a pair kept going. That isn't to say this isn't an area to watch. But as we look for the trade as a whole, and the story as a whole this one never completed, never formed a pinbar, so we wait and move on. Irregardless of what happens doesn't matter now, it only matters for the ones we actually put our money on.

Take care
Mike
  • #99,456
  • Jul 28, 2011 5:18pm Jul 28, 2011 5:18pm
Lesson of the day for any beginners "Must not ignore Big Round Numbers" (See chart)

My trade for the day: Daily bias on the eurusd, (BEOB), 1h PB for PA entry, off 1.4400BRN.

Note to self: Trying to build a 'winning' psychology. As it's friday tomorrow, if there is no strong setup, I'm happy to stay on the sidelines. Start monday on a positive note coming off of a positive week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #99,457
  • Jul 28, 2011 5:26pm Jul 28, 2011 5:26pm
Thank you for the warm welcome and fantastic analysis, your in great shape guys.

Easy for someone new to understand and learn from. Will keep me eyes open for more potential trades and post more charts.

Good trading
Steve
Enter Signature
  • #99,458
  • Jul 28, 2011 5:28pm Jul 28, 2011 5:28pm
It seems I've been waiting for months for the AUDUSD top. I debt deal or at least some sort of confirmation to ease the uncertainty could trigger action on the USD pairs. What about a break below 1.0969? Also USDCHF / USDJPY bottoms.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 07282011_AUDUSD_DAILY.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • #99,459
  • Jul 28, 2011 5:29pm Jul 28, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting tas0s
AU currently trending up, so I'm only looking for longs, made an all time high, retraced to a trendline and S/R line, and formed a bullish pin on H4.

I set a order to buy at the 50% line of that pin so I get a better entry price, and set my stop right below the low.
Roll with it friend. Put my thoughts on the chart that you posted. Let me know if anything I said is unclear.

Ryan

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Clip.gif Size: 168 KB
  • #99,460
  • Jul 28, 2011 5:36pm Jul 28, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting Mebius
It seems I've been waiting for months for the AUDUSD top. I debt deal or at least some sort of confirmation to ease the uncertainty could trigger action on the USD pairs. What about a break below 1.0969? Also USDCHF / USDJPY bottoms.....
We trade charted PA. There is nothing on this chart to even begin to speculate about a top with. Honestly I don't even care about tops and bottoms any more. They just cloud my decision making ability by requiring me to carry a personal bias. That is not what J16 is about as I see it. I ignore MY bias because it is MINE, NOT the markets. I try to keep my head clear and reading the charts in a very objective way. Once there is one hell of a PA signal I might begin to think about where price is going. Until then I will sit and wait.

Ryan
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