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Trades based on Market Geometry and Price Action

  • #2,821
  • Jul 27, 2011 11:24am Jul 27, 2011 11:24am
I hate it
  • #2,822
  • Jul 27, 2011 11:46am Jul 27, 2011 11:46am
Quoting sugarbelly
I hate it
its all about finding something logical that works for you and sticking with it during the drawdown periods...and i think risk management that makes your maximum drawdown small will reduce stress...psychology is a big part of this business
  • #2,823
  • Jul 27, 2011 11:49am Jul 27, 2011 11:49am
I hear you. First you call it a game, but in the second post you called it a business. The second one is the right classification. It is real money you loose. Or win for that matter, but lately I've been off the road totally. And it went all so well before.
  • #2,824
  • Jul 27, 2011 11:52am Jul 27, 2011 11:52am
Back to trading: I don't like the bearish engulfing Daily candle forming on EU. Sure hope it disappears before the day is over, otherwise bad news.
  • #2,825
  • Jul 27, 2011 12:08pm Jul 27, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting sugarbelly
I hear you. First you call it a game, but in the second post you called it a business. The second one is the right classification. It is real money you loose. Or win for that matter, but lately I've been off the road totally. And it went all so well before.
yeh you are right its not a game, its a business...alot of similarities to professional sports games though
  • #2,826
  • Jul 27, 2011 12:34pm Jul 27, 2011 12:34pm
I would like to show you all 2 EUR/USD charts and add some comments to them. Maybe if we all participate in some sort of analysis for next possible EUR/USD moves this could help us all.

1. 4 H chart: the price has broken up the upper TL, went up to 1.4536 and returned back to the diamond pattern. As for me - I consider this break up to 1.4536 as a false break.

What I expect now --4 touch of the diamond TL at 1.4325 area and break of this area (TL) down.

2. Weekly chart: There were 3 touches on the upper TL. The 3 touch ( and break) was this week, it broke the trendline up and ( but) returned back. This upper trendline has for me technical significance. And I donīt expect there will be another attempt to break up the upper TL this Week again.

The lower trendline has so far no technical significance at all.
Significance of this line will be until ( if ) the price gets and hit 1.4200 area.

Thatīs why I consider that we have already seen the high of the week

( Itīs my reading of these two charts and I can be totally wrong)


Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd diamond pattern.gif Size: 155 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd weekly analysis.gif Size: 133 KB
  • #2,827
  • Jul 27, 2011 12:41pm Jul 27, 2011 12:41pm
tomorrow is the last serious trading day of the week. it could be possible that we have seen already the weekly high....if the daily closes with this bearish pattern, it would be a confirmation of the beginning down trend...
  • #2,828
  • Jul 27, 2011 12:44pm Jul 27, 2011 12:44pm
Short would be for eu now. It didn't seems like eur will be heading up for at least. In addition, this fall is too fast with 200 pips in like few hours? Partly triggered by a useless usd news release. So im buying it down.
  • #2,829
  • Jul 27, 2011 12:47pm Jul 27, 2011 12:47pm
I'm not seeing any particular level now as I'm trading their movements. But yes it is a lower high and a lower low. With a confirmation of downward movements. So coming to dk post, today bar can trigger back the downtrend
  • #2,830
  • Jul 27, 2011 12:51pm Jul 27, 2011 12:51pm
I see a bullish continuation pattern but I would hate it to see it go down in that channel again. As you can see I bought the break of the upper downward trendline. Sorry I didn't check the Fib levels in the graph but it went to around the 50 level and a bit beyond with the long wick, so I thought what the heck, let's buy the breakout. (Next to that till 2nd of August: debt ceiling US problem. I expected a weak Dollar. ) It was all in line and still market tricks me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #2,831
  • Jul 27, 2011 12:53pm Jul 27, 2011 12:53pm
I hate the way the market acts recently without any respect to the TLs Medians , not a single mounth with a trend exept the ch and nzd and i hate those pairs that have them , and im some times just gambling putting double orders up down and sticking with the direction were they go but doesnt even hold on enough in either directions .
Just couple of years ago we were trading by trends simple . But well , thats the chopy market to trade for now ,,,,.
We are clearly in a currency turmoil , and only a few rich can afford to wait till it settles down .
  • #2,832
  • Jul 27, 2011 12:56pm Jul 27, 2011 12:56pm
Sugar, like I said. News are important. But it seems like it applies to only that few specific hours of trading. After that, traders will still resume their trades as if the news wasn't there before. That's why I try to avoid major news release ar times as they could really being me to sl before resuming the directions
  • #2,833
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:00pm Jul 27, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting dailyking
tomorrow is the last serious trading day of the week. it could be possible that we have seen already the weekly high....if the daily closes with this bearish pattern, it would be a confirmation of the beginning down trend...
Yes, DK, I feel it like that also
  • #2,834
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:03pm Jul 27, 2011 1:03pm
Quoting monguito
I hate the way the market acts recently without any respect to the TLs Medians , not a single mounth with a trend exept the ch and nzd and i hate those pairs that have them , and im some times just gambling putting double orders up down and sticking with the direction were they go but doesnt even hold on enough in either directions .
Just couple of years ago we were trading by trends simple . But well , thats the chopy market to trade for now ,,,,.
We are clearly in a currency turmoil , and only a few rich can afford to wait till it settles down...
right, itīs exactly as you said
  • #2,835
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:03pm Jul 27, 2011 1:03pm
Quoting sugarbelly
I see a bullish continuation pattern but I would hate it to see it go down in that channel again. As you can see I bought the break of the upper downward trendline. Sorry I didn't check the Fib levels in the graph but it went to around the 50 level and a bit beyond with the long wick, so I thought what the heck, let's buy the breakout. (Next to that till 2nd of August: debt ceiling US problem. I expected a weak Dollar. ) It was all in line and still market tricks me.
I guess a lot of us thought that way too , I thought it would act as in EG chopping out the TL stops then go up again but if it goes back to the down channel , well , big players did there trick again and Mr Bernanke will win more enemies .

If that happens , ill trade only gold silver nu less volatil less lots long term trades from now on hahaha
  • #2,836
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:06pm Jul 27, 2011 1:06pm
I see a great deal of institutions say that 1,433 or 1.428 will stop the descent and turn the market bullish again to go to 1,50.
  • #2,837
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:11pm Jul 27, 2011 1:11pm
And what about this one. The third touch was the fake breakout and now we are in the real move up, after th retest of the downchannel
Attached Image
  • #2,838
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:15pm Jul 27, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting sugarbelly
And what about this one. The third touch was the fake breakout and now we are in the real move up, after th retest of the downchannel
Thats the tricky part , if you draw the TL on the previouse high ( may 03 to july 04 ) then you get a diferent view .
  • #2,839
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:18pm Jul 27, 2011 1:18pm
Well, july 25 was taliban choppy , i would expect the same if it tries to go north .
  • #2,840
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:23pm Jul 27, 2011 1:23pm
Quoting sugarbelly
I see a great deal of institutions say that 1,433 or 1.428 will stop the descent and turn the market bullish again to go to 1,50.
..but this correspond with that what I think...- fall to 1.4325 area,break down to ...as you have mentioned now - 1.4280 -and then up again.
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