No BS... eur/usd Technical Analysis | Forex Factory

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No BS... eur/usd Technical Analysis

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 25, 2011 8:58pm Jul 25, 2011 8:58pm
This is my first thread on FF.... As a matter of fact my first first thread of any kind. Hopefully it will be beneficial to you all. The purpose of this thread is to give my daily analysis of the EUR/USD pair and where possible, post the results of my trades.

I solely use technical analysis and factor little if any fundamental analysis in my trading. I believe fundamental trading has its place, but I am of the belief that price is king and fundamentals will eventually be reflected in the charts.

My Trading System

I am a firm believer that the best things in life are for free and with that, here is my trading system.

I use two tools in my trading

- Support and Resistance on Daily and 4hr time frames.
- MACD indicator (12,26,9) ***Please note that the macd is only used to gauge market sentiment and current trend bias/direction.

Once the major resistance and support levels have been identified on the larger time frames (Daily and 4 HR), I go to the one hour time frame to put on the positions or place pending orders at the levels that were identified.

I subscribe to the age old tenant of trading..... Buy dips (support) and sell rallies....

However if these levels are broken (a hourly close above or below the price that was entered depending on the initial position), close the initial position and reverse.
  • #2
  • Jul 25, 2011 9:19pm Jul 25, 2011 9:19pm
The market currently is trading in the 1.4420 and 1.4328 trading range. The market is still in an uptrend even though this temporary consolidation and bias remains up (MACD on the hourly time frame is currently over the zero line). I am looking for a break of 1.4220 to buy the currency or a pull back to the 1.4353 or 1.4328 levels to buy the currency.

A break of 1.4328 may present an opportunity to sell the currency. Until then we are looking to buy dips.
  • #3
  • Jul 25, 2011 11:03pm Jul 25, 2011 11:03pm
i m also following the same system with on addition indicator i.e. Heiken Ashi Smoothed ....

lets get this thread rolling and make money guys....
  • #4
  • Jul 26, 2011 2:25am Jul 26, 2011 2:25am
Thanks harora for your kind words. Couldnt have put it better myself.. As expected the market shot up and took out the 1.4494 level of resistance. What I didn't expect it to do was do it during the Asian session. But it did. Who cares really why a target gets hit.. I don't. During this session (Europe) we are looking for buy opportunities and possible pull backs to 1.4494 or even as low as the 1.4464 region. The next target is 1.4543 and possibly 1.4562.

Remember guys, pullbacks are expected. So dont get too jumpy if the position goes against u somewhat after u enter the trade. What is important is that you have direction, trend and momentum on your side.

Lets get those pips..
  • #5
  • Jul 26, 2011 8:45am Jul 26, 2011 8:45am
The euro fell below the 1.4494 level of support during the early stages of the European session and pulled back to the 1.4456 level of support. As a result making the 1.4494 level which previously acted as support the new level of resistance to be watch in the market. The euro is currently ranging between these two levels.

Up to the open of the American session the euro has not been able to break above the 1.4494 level and as a result stalled the potential up move. The bias still remains up, but cautious. One hour macd shows weakening of bull momentum and potential downside.

Recommendations

Buy the Euro if it breaks the 1.4494 level with a potential target being 1.4563.

A potential shorts exists if the euro breaks below the 1.4456 level and the macd continues to show bearish strength.

Other potential shorts for the euro could be shorting the euro when price pulls back to 1.4494. Potential targets for this trade could be 1.4456 and 1.4407
  • #6
  • Jul 26, 2011 8:59am Jul 26, 2011 8:59am
A potential buy entry also exists at 1.4456. You make take some heat, but its proved to be a strong level throughout the last couple of trading sessions.
  • #7
  • Jul 26, 2011 9:55am Jul 26, 2011 9:55am
The market pulled back to the 1.4456 level and has rallied up to the 1.4494 level which it is currently trying to break. If you took the 1.445 entry you would have been up atleast 40 pips. If the strong bull momentum continues and takes out the level, another buy opportunity exists at a close above 1.4494.
  • #8
  • Jul 26, 2011 3:12pm Jul 26, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting feodras
The market pulled back to the 1.4456 level and has rallied up to the 1.4494 level which it is currently trying to break. If you took the 1.445 entry you would have been up atleast 40 pips. If the strong bull momentum continues and takes out the level, another buy opportunity exists at a close above 1.4494.
If you guys took the buy trade at 1.445 you should be up at least sixty something pips. Please move your stops to break even and take some of that profit.
  • #9
  • Jul 26, 2011 7:54pm Jul 26, 2011 7:54pm
The close above the resistance level has happened. This is a good opportunity to go long on the pair during the Asian session.. I am up almost 28 pips.. Happy Hunting..
  • #10
  • Jul 27, 2011 7:13am Jul 27, 2011 7:13am
The market has broken below the 1.4456 level. This a good opportunity to go short.
  • #11
  • Jul 27, 2011 7:48am Jul 27, 2011 7:48am
I've taken long instead. Stop loss at round number of 1.4400.
福 子 Victor V
  • #12
  • Jul 27, 2011 8:13am Jul 27, 2011 8:13am
Quoting camvcvoo
I've taken long instead. Stop loss at round number of 1.4400.
Camvcvoo what has led you take that long position? What are you seeing?
  • #13
  • Jul 27, 2011 8:37am Jul 27, 2011 8:37am
Quoting feodras
Camvcvoo what has led you take that long position? What are you seeing?
The hourly close was slightly above last week's high of 1.4436 (MIG Bank's MT4). My hourly Stoch is oversold. With daily S1 at 1.4404, the risk reward is good to me to aim for 1.4700, at least 1.4550.

At the start of July, price pierced through Daily 100 SMA all the way to Daily 200 SMA. It bounced up from 200 SMA all the way above 100 SMA as of now. So, i favour longs.

However, my short will only be at 1.4350.

Victor V
福 子 Victor V
  • #14
  • Jul 27, 2011 9:38am Jul 27, 2011 9:38am
Quoting camvcvoo
The hourly close was slightly above last week's high of 1.4436 (MIG Bank's MT4). My hourly Stoch is oversold. With daily S1 at 1.4404, the risk reward is good to me to aim for 1.4700, at least 1.4550.

At the start of July, price pierced through Daily 100 SMA all the way to Daily 200 SMA. It bounced up from 200 SMA all the way above 100 SMA as of now. So, i favour longs.

However, my short will only be at 1.4350.

Victor V
Thank you for your analysis.

Lets see how the trades play out..

Currently i am seeing bearish momentum. So your long position can work, I don't think it will be sustained.
  • #15
  • Jul 27, 2011 11:30am Jul 27, 2011 11:30am
The market has taken out the 1.4407 level of support and looks to have 1.4353 and the 1.4328 levels in its sight. MACD seems to support continued bearish strength and more than likely will take out these levels.

A opportunity to short the pair could exist after the break of the 1.4328 level.
  • #16
  • Jul 27, 2011 12:42pm Jul 27, 2011 12:42pm
Quoting feodras
The market has taken out the 1.4407 level of support and looks to have 1.4353 and the 1.4328 levels in its sight. MACD seems to support continued bearish strength and more than likely will take out these levels.

A opportunity to short the pair could exist after the break of the 1.4328 level.
I have moved my stops to break even and looking to lock in some pips from the initial short trade this morning at the 1.4450 level
  • #17
  • Jul 27, 2011 2:07pm Jul 27, 2011 2:07pm
Closed out the position for 84 pips. Will be looking a re-entry to short a close below 1.4328 or a test of the 1.4407 level.
  • #18
  • Jul 27, 2011 4:55pm Jul 27, 2011 4:55pm
Quoting feodras
Thank you for your analysis.

Lets see how the trades play out..

Currently i am seeing bearish momentum. So your long position can work, I don't think it will be sustained.
Didn't work out.

Triggered my sell stop at 1.4350. Will load up on shorts ... ...

Victor V
福 子 Victor V
  • #19
  • Jul 27, 2011 9:37pm Jul 27, 2011 9:37pm
Quoting camvcvoo
Didn't work out.

Triggered my sell stop at 1.4350. Will load up on shorts ... ...

Victor V
Sorry about the first trade camvcvoo. Good luck on those shorts.
  • #20
  • Jul 27, 2011 9:45pm Jul 27, 2011 9:45pm
The market failed to take out the 1.4353 level of support and has basically consolidated above the level for the latter part of the American session and the early part of the Asian session.

The 1.4353 level was finally broken during the Asian session and a short position entered.

The next levels of support of immediate importance is the 1.4328 level, which is approximately 28 pips from our current short position. If this level is taken out, then our next target will be 1.4267.
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