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Higher low, lower high system

  • #4,461
  • Jul 12, 2011 5:54am Jul 12, 2011 5:54am
Quoting danc
Just going throu these charts.. day throu to 15.. Hell of an observation Vantage..Hell of a trade .. Hope u traded it..Re your comment re 5 day ATR.. I have never used it or understand it..Any chance of a quick over view of your understanding of it and how u use it??
From my observations eurchf is not a currency we'll counter trend trade at all.

ATR - Firstly trying to look for currencies that are moving, so focus of last few days has been eur and eurchf. Don't think we have traded gu more than once since back from break. For that reason decided this am to drop aud on watch list for ej.

Then once in try and use atr for exits, still not getting that as well as we would like, my worst fault still. If currency has moved 100 pips on 150 pip atr how much further can it go? Another 100 perhaps but thats unlikely, but theres always exceptions.

Anyway treat counter trend as short in and out, be glad of 20 pips, treat trend as going for 5 day atr and where they coincide with good target areas (psych levels, SR, RN's W pivots, D pivots).
  • #4,462
  • Jul 12, 2011 6:06am Jul 12, 2011 6:06am
Like Y today was pretty much picture perfect.

D chart, down day Y so expecting today to follow, below 50 RSI/ma. 4hr down + below its 50 RSI/ma. Had no interest in buying at all (eur pretty much same picture).

The 2b/evening star pattern (left arrow down) was too early for me. Then had 2 chances to get in on significant moves in line with the trend.
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  • #4,463
  • Jul 12, 2011 6:22am Jul 12, 2011 6:22am
Quoting Vantage
Like Y today was pretty much picture perfect.

D chart, down day Y so expecting today to follow, below 50 RSI/ma. 4hr down + below its 50 RSI/ma. Had no interest in buying at all (eur pretty much same picture).

The 2b/evening star pattern (left arrow down) was too early for me. Then had 2 chances to get in on significant moves in line with the trend.
Nice, I'll take a closer look at EURCHF when I've time. I've been following EU again today.

1 hr SS, 15 min SS off 3950/today's POC combo, 5 min lh getting back in with trend. I actually entered at the break of the 15 min bar, 1.3937. 50% out at 3915 for +22, remainder out at 3906 for +31. Not taking any chances with trailing my stop today.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,464
  • Jul 12, 2011 6:30am Jul 12, 2011 6:30am
Quoting Ian
Nice, I'll take a closer look at EURCHF when I've time. I've been following EU again today.

1 hr SS, 15 min SS off 3950/today's POC combo, 5 min lh getting back in with trend. I actually entered at the break of the 15 min bar, 1.3937. 50% out at 3915 for +22, remainder out at 3906 for +31. Not taking any chances with trailing my stop today.

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Also forgot to mention that 3949 was the 50% retrace of the move down from Asian highs.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,465
  • Jul 12, 2011 6:31am Jul 12, 2011 6:31am
Quoting Ian
Nice, I'll take a closer look at EURCHF when I've time. I've been following EU again today.

1 hr SS, 15 min SS off 3950/today's POC combo, 5 min lh getting back in with trend. I actually entered at the break of the 15 min bar, 1.3937. 50% out at 3915 for +22, remainder out at 3906 for +31. Not taking any chances with trailing my stop today.

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Very nice trade, having had a massive move down and 100+ pip retrace anything could happen. So yeah banking those pips seems like a good plan!
For now we have stopped at Jan highs.

After a 700 odd pip move down over last week or so those big dog COT longs will come out of the woodwork soon, surely? Apart from the Jan SR level I don't see divergence or other reason to move up, maybe the big dogs have moved down price enough? TWT, it always does.
  • #4,466
  • Jul 12, 2011 6:34am Jul 12, 2011 6:34am
Chart for above.
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  • #4,467
  • Edited 5:18pm Jul 13, 2011 3:55pm | Edited 5:18pm
Vantage, I noticed this setup today and wondered how you might have traded it, if you would have even considered it.

Reversal at extreme.

15 min evening star pattern at June lows/4100 level with divergence. There was a 5 min lh which coinicided with the close of the dragonfly doji. This could have given an entry at about 1.4095. However if you waited until the evening star formed completely (grey vertical line) then entry at about 4085.

Either way a nice trade if you allowed a retest of the RN.

My question: is the dragonfly doji/divergence coupled with 5 min lh enough for you to take a reversal trade (not in or around LO) at a key level or would you want to wait for the stronger evening star pattern to complete? The 1 hr had also just closed as a strong bullish (almost marubozu) bar which failed to break higher.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,468
  • Jul 14, 2011 4:02am Jul 14, 2011 4:02am
Quoting Ian
Vantage, I noticed this setup today and wondered how you might have traded it, if you would have even considered it.

Reversal at extreme.

15 min evening star pattern at June lows/4100 level with divergence. There was a 5 min lh which coinicided with the close of the dragonfly doji. This could have given an entry at about 1.4095. However if you waited until the evening star formed completely (grey vertical line) then entry at about 4085.

Either way a nice trade if you allowed a retest of the RN.

My question: is the dragonfly doji/divergence...
I think the chances of me trading that one were pretty slim. 4hr was strongly up, 1hr as you say also. So even though I like that pattern prob would have given it a miss.

No trades for me so far today and I have to go out in about 60 mins or so. Not sure when I'll be back, hopefully US session will give some nice opportunities. Lots of news though, then its the greatest sporting event in the world, the tour de france.

Mrs V has just given me some of Y's leftovers for lunch. Cauliflower cheese with bread and butter. I love it. A severe character flaw no doubt but still. Cauliflower cheese wasn't dinner mind just in case that idea freaked you out just a little too much (meat, potatoes, 2 veg).
  • #4,469
  • Jul 14, 2011 4:10am Jul 14, 2011 4:10am
Quoting Vantage
I think the chances of me trading that one were pretty slim. 4hr was strongly up, 1hr as you say also. So even though I like that pattern prob would have given it a miss.

No trades for me so far today and I have to go out in about 60 mins or so. Not sure when I'll be back, hopefully US session will give some nice opportunities. Lots of news though, then its the greatest sporting event in the world, the tour de france.
Mrs V has just given me some of Y's leftovers for lunch. Cauliflower cheese with bread and butter. I love it. A severe...
OK, thanks for that.

Yes looking forward to seeing the Pyrenees today, but prob won't see the amazing HTC teamwork delivering Mark Cavendish like a bullet today after all those hills. Sadly, I only get to see the highlights today when I get home.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,470
  • Jul 20, 2011 3:40am Jul 20, 2011 3:40am
This morning's trade that nearly was...

EU 1 hr/15 min pos close, 5 min hl no upper wick, order set at 1.4179.
However when price didn't break higher immediately, we got a negative bar followed by a bar with an upper wick which couldn't close above 75 psych level, I cancelled my order.

Price went on to hit 1.4200 which would have been a good TP.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,471
  • Jul 21, 2011 4:16am Jul 21, 2011 4:16am
Hopefully somebody just shorted EJ and made a few bucks. I'm missing one of my monitors (repair), so I'm only actively watching EU and GU at the moment. Unfortunately, EU didn't have such a convincing setup as EJ just had.

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It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #4,472
  • Jul 21, 2011 4:21am Jul 21, 2011 4:21am
Quoting Dhb
Hopefully somebody just shorted EJ and made a few bucks. I'm missing one of my monitors (repair), so I'm only actively watching EU and GU at the moment. Unfortunately, EU didn't have such a convincing setup as EJ just had.

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Hi Dhb
I actually thought they were pretty similar. If anyone missed the eur move (broke 4225 low 5 mins before ej moved) that warning could have given time for the perfect ej lh to be placed when 15 min candle closed. Yes that was a very nice set up.
  • #4,473
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:53am Jul 27, 2011 1:53am
At FO EU couldn't close above Y high. 1 hr showing bearish divergence overnight. 15 min had neg close then higher vol shooting star. 5 min double top also with sell div. Sell stop at 1.4520 placed at FO.

This was against a strong pos close yesterday but all other Euro pairs looking weak this morning.

50% out at 4485 (15/85 trade) on first touch then remainder out at same level when price couldn't make 75 level/Y's POC combo.

Very happy with +35 in FH.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,474
  • Jul 27, 2011 3:27am Jul 27, 2011 3:27am
Quoting Ian
At FO EU couldn't close above Y high. 1 hr showing bearish divergence overnight. 15 min had neg close then higher vol shooting star. 5 min double top also with sell div. Sell stop at 1.4520 placed at FO.

This was against a strong pos close yesterday but all other Euro pairs looking weak this morning.

50% out at 4485 (15/85 trade) on first touch then remainder out at same level when price couldn't make 75 level/Y's POC combo.

Very happy with +35 in FH.

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Hi Ian
Mrs V has the sniffles again so I'm on breakfast duties at that time. Pity.

I did get a eurchf 2b/flag sell 1598 exit at the POC/M2 combo around 1578.

tried another sell lucky to get out just before eur news and above BE when it didn't want to go lower.

Will be glad when (a) Mrs V finally over this flu stuff and (b) US sorts its debt problems out. I've not traded (at all) on 7 out of last 12 days when pa has been horrible in the times I've been in front of computer.
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  • #4,475
  • Jul 27, 2011 3:30am Jul 27, 2011 3:30am
Quoting Ian

This was against a strong pos close yesterday but all other Euro pairs looking weak this morning.
Yes eurchf moved 10 mins before eur and ej, gave a nice heads up for move down. Add all the reasons you show and a nice trade!!
  • #4,476
  • Jul 27, 2011 3:36am Jul 27, 2011 3:36am
Hi Ian
These are the D SR areas I have marked off. Generally I look at bodies to draw the levels but I use as a band (body - wick if any). Anyway whilst Y was an up day we have had 3 good legs up (4hr clear) and so a move down with the PA you show a good area to CT.

Again nice one.
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  • #4,477
  • Jul 27, 2011 3:52am Jul 27, 2011 3:52am
Hey Mr. V, we hope your lovely wife gets better very quickly! I don't like it when Darice is sick either. We've also done very few trades this week. We agree about the US and their debt problems! God bless!
  • #4,478
  • Jul 27, 2011 4:00am Jul 27, 2011 4:00am
Quoting chompjazz
Hey Mr. V, we hope your lovely wife gets better very quickly! I don't like it when Darice is sick either. We've also done very few trades this week. We agree about the US and their debt problems! God bless!
I was almost going batty for a while. 2 weeks ago today I had trades on the Mon and Tues then 6 days no trades at all till Thurs/Fri last week. No trades again Y!! Obviously this debt issue is causing markets to drift a little.

Anyway on a completely different topic Mrs V is now on DAY 23 not smoking. Even better both of us are alive and well. There have been no threats to use sharp sticks or blunt spoons.
  • #4,479
  • Jul 27, 2011 4:23am Jul 27, 2011 4:23am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Ian
Mrs V has the sniffles again so I'm on breakfast duties at that time. Pity.

I did get a eurchf 2b/flag sell 1598 exit at the POC/M2 combo around 1578.

tried another sell lucky to get out just before eur news and above BE when it didn't want to go lower.

Will be glad when (a) Mrs V finally over this flu stuff and (b) US sorts its debt problems out. I've not traded (at all) on 7 out of last 12 days when pa has been horrible in the times I've been in front of computer.
Yes, I've also found it a struggle to find anything decent to trade recently.

Quoting Vantage
Yes eurchf moved 10 mins before eur and ej, gave a nice heads up for move down. Add all the reasons you show and a nice trade!!
Quoting Vantage
Hi Ian
These are the D SR areas I have marked off. Generally I look at bodies to draw the levels but I use as a band (body - wick if any). Anyway whilst Y was an up day we have had 3 good legs up (4hr clear) and so a move down with the PA you show a good area to CT.

Again nice one.
Thanks for all the extra feedback/info Vantage, very useful.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,480
  • Jul 27, 2011 4:31am Jul 27, 2011 4:31am
Quoting Vantage
I was almost going batty for a while. 2 weeks ago today I had trades on the Mon and Tues then 6 days no trades at all till Thurs/Fri last week. No trades again Y!! Obviously this debt issue is causing markets to drift a little.

Anyway on a completely different topic Mrs V is now on DAY 23 not smoking. Even better both of us are alive and well. There have been no threats to use sharp sticks or blunt spoons.
All excellent news!!
Follow, don't anticipate.
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