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Higher low, lower high system

  • #4,441
  • Jul 8, 2011 1:33am Jul 8, 2011 1:33am
Quoting danc
Raslph Shell blog today.. Very clear very understandable.. EUCHF.. long.. Aussie a sell..Good stuff
Yes he does some very informative stuff indeed!
  • #4,442
  • Jul 8, 2011 1:35am Jul 8, 2011 1:35am
Quoting pgd
Vantage,

please see appended charts.

3 m15 red closes with little/no lower wicks.
LH with m5 solid close.

1. entry, following the hl_lh system, as shown.

2. if we draw a counter TL / bear flag, the entry would be below the low of the next bar OR if we follow the bpc routine, after 3-4 bars.

Question:
Should one wait for the TL break or is the LH entry independent and self-sufficient?

Thanks.
Again with the benefit of hindsight and I haven't checked back on charts. If I was happy with trend I'd have sold the lh as shown.
  • #4,443
  • Jul 8, 2011 1:46am Jul 8, 2011 1:46am
Just before the break I listened to a webinar that uses above/below rsi 50 level as trend on 2, pref 3 timeframes - D, 4H, 1H. That reminded me of Steve Hopwood (the mega ea writer here at FF) that uses a daily rsi above/below 50 as a basic filter option.

Then I thought of one of my old basic filters (like follow 1hr), follow the daily. So if daily up likely buy day today etc. Now if D up, D rsi above 50 well I'm sure you can see where this is going.

PS daily rsi above/below 50 can easily signal 2-6 weeks trends.
  • #4,444
  • Jul 8, 2011 2:22am Jul 8, 2011 2:22am
Bounce off asian lows and 11650.
TL break.
retrace making the LH m15 hammer.
m5 +ve close w/small u/wick taking out the hammer.

entry: 11662
exit 1: 11673(mR1)
exit 2: 11679(yest's high)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,445
  • Jul 8, 2011 2:27am Jul 8, 2011 2:27am
Quoting pgd
Bounce off asian lows and 11650.
TL break.
retrace making the LH m15 hammer.
m5 +ve close w/small u/wick taking out the hammer.

entry: 11662
exit 1: 11673(mR1)
exit 2: 11679(yest's high)
Nice one pg.

Mrs V has long since disappeared on NFP day off and I'm catching up on some admin. Haven't really looked at charts although they are up.
  • #4,446
  • Edited 5:24am Jul 8, 2011 5:22am | Edited 5:24am
Quoting pgd
Bounce off asian lows and 11650.
TL break.
retrace making the LH m15 hammer.
m5 +ve close w/small u/wick taking out the hammer.

entry: 11662
exit 1: 11673(mR1)
exit 2: 11679(yest's high)
Nice one PGD.. great chart great enter.. notice a couple of good ones over on the psych thread.. Great stuff..
Looking for the Asian lows as a platform worth watching in my opn..
  • #4,447
  • Edited 5:35am Jul 8, 2011 5:28am | Edited 5:35am
Some nice opportunities on EU despite NFP looming.

FH closed as a SS which couldn't push above early Asian highs and today's open level. At LO 15 min showed a nice bearish engulfing bar followed by a hammer which couldn't break higher. This produced a 5 min LH little/no lower wick closing below the 4350 level. I didn't take this as overnight range not broken which was a mistake.

Second was a trade I took for a small loss when 4300 appeared to be holding. 1 hr solid down, 15 min inside bar with upper wick rejection of pivot/poc levels. 5 min lh, entry at 4308, didn't look as if it was going and I closed for -7 at the x when a slightly higher high was made at the WM2.

Came back to see 4300 had given way. Next chance which I took was another solid 1 hr neg close, 15 min neg close with lower wick which was taken out by the 5 min lh closing below MS1. Entry at 4282. Out for +31 (2R) after the 5min high volume hammer. I had set a TP at 4225 just above yesterdays low which was missed by about 3 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,448
  • Jul 8, 2011 5:34am Jul 8, 2011 5:34am
Quoting Vantage
Nice one pg.

Mrs V has long since disappeared on NFP day off and I'm catching up on some admin. Haven't really looked at charts although they are up.
thanks, Vantage.

happy u had a break charging your batteries.
if u'd remembered nfp, u cud hv actually extended yr break by 3 days to include the weekend...

cheers,
pg
  • #4,449
  • Jul 8, 2011 5:56am Jul 8, 2011 5:56am
Quoting Ian
Some nice opportunities on EU despite NFP looming.

FH closed as a SS which couldn't push above early Asian highs and today's open level. At LO 15 min showed a nice bearish engulfing bar followed by a hammer which couldn't break higher. This produced a 5 min LH little/no lower wick closing below the 4350 level. I didn't take this as overnight range not broken which was a mistake.

Second was a trade I took for a small loss when 4300 appeared to be holding. 1 hr solid down, 15 min inside bar with upper wick rejection of pivot/poc levels. 5 min lh,...
Earlier today around FO/LO I was thinking up if anything for EU after yesterday's daily hammer off S/R level at 4320 seen clearly on 4 hour chart so not expecting a big move down at LO although I did bear in mind the possibility of a test of Wednesday's low at 4285.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,450
  • Edited 6:59am Jul 8, 2011 6:20am | Edited 6:59am
Quoting danc
Nice one PGD.. great chart great enter.. notice a couple of good ones over on the psych thread.. Great stuff..
Looking for the Asian lows as a platform worth watching in my opn..
thanks, danc.

you've seen the ones from yest at psyche level thread too...
the |> b/o long went much further but 3 back-to-back on the eu had left me quite exhausted. so, i exited quickly and called it a day.

re. using asian lows/highs as a platform:

i've seen FH/LO bring a lot of variations to what can happen post asia -- clean range breakouts, clean reversals, fakeouts and what have you. anticipating a specific variation can get one in the saddle backwards holding the tail.

today, it happened to work as a 'platform' as it seemed happily wedded to an RN.

cheers.
  • #4,451
  • Jul 8, 2011 9:20am Jul 8, 2011 9:20am
I didn't trade this am, pity.

Anyway after the news gu just didn't want to fall. Waited for a nice hl close, originally hoping for W M 3 target at 6094 but when we stalled at 75 level for 2nd time I exited just after this pic for +24.
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  • #4,452
  • Jul 8, 2011 9:26am Jul 8, 2011 9:26am
Quoting Ian
Earlier today around FO/LO I was thinking up if anything for EU after yesterday's daily hammer off S/R level at 4320 seen clearly on 4 hour chart so not expecting a big move down at LO although I did bear in mind the possibility of a test of Wednesday's low at 4285.
Nice stuff earlier Ian.

Yes in general you have about 70% chance of 1 day pa following the next.

I am currently thinking as a general guide:

a) follow daily
b)if above D rsi 8 50 level + looking to buy even better, if below D rsi 8 50 level selling even better.

So on days like today on eur yes the hammer = up on D chart but we were still below D rsi 50. As was the 4hr also. So eur could have been buy and sell today if set up right.

Or I could be complicating things terribly!!!
  • #4,453
  • Jul 8, 2011 12:08pm Jul 8, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting Vantage
Nice stuff earlier Ian.

Yes in general you have about 70% chance of 1 day pa following the next.

I am currently thinking as a general guide:

a) follow daily
b)if above D rsi 8 50 level + looking to buy even better, if below D rsi 8 50 level selling even better.

So on days like today on eur yes the hammer = up on D chart but we were still below D rsi 50. As was the 4hr also. So eur could have been buy and sell today if set up right.

Or I could be complicating things terribly!!!
Looks promising, I'll try incorporating this into my thinking. As always, I suppose, it's advisable to keep thoughts of possible direction at the back of the mind, and under control, whilst watching PA at the levels and allowing that to take precedence over all else.

For example, this morning I allowed the 15 min hammer just after LO to cloud my judgement. Despite the 1 hr and previous 15 min neg engulfing suggesting down I thought - OK maybe up after all - and missed the fact that the hammer had no follow through. Consequently lost focus and was not even looking to short at that point.

I also had a "Line in the Sand" a la Medici drawn at 4342 (red line on m15 chart) which was just supporting the hammer unfortunately, (this later called the top of the post NFP rally.)
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,454
  • Jul 9, 2011 2:20am Jul 9, 2011 2:20am
Quoting Ian
Looks promising, I'll try incorporating this into my thinking. As always, I suppose, it's advisable to keep thoughts of possible direction at the back of the mind, and under control, whilst watching PA at the levels and allowing that to take precedence over all else.

For example, this morning I allowed the 15 min hammer just after LO to cloud my judgement. Despite the 1 hr and previous 15 min neg engulfing suggesting down I thought - OK maybe up after all - and missed the fact that the hammer had no follow through. Consequently lost focus and...
Don't beat your self up on missing a hammer with no follow through signalling a reversal. If I had 25c for every time I've missed one of those, well I wouldn't be rich but a years worth of toll fees would be covered!! Ha not that we use the car much we generally do about 250-300 km's per month!!!

Mrs V has authorised 'counter trend trades' and ones that are just common sense key SR areas with good candles etc. But we are getting more and more aware that above/below D rsi 50 level (you can pick your equivalent ema) will signal trends of 2 - 6 weeks. So even good D candles below say that 50 level that suggest up may just be moves up to only fall again. So even if we are biased up from the candle we'll happily sell ie we'll swing both ways.

Its also a focus to try and let trades run longer, one of my big failings.
  • #4,455
  • Jul 9, 2011 2:23am Jul 9, 2011 2:23am
Quoting Vantage
Don't beat your self up on missing a hammer with no follow through signalling a reversal. If I had 25c for every time I've missed one of those, well I wouldn't be rich but a years worth of toll fees would be covered!! Ha not that we use the car much we generally do about 250-300 km's per month!!!

Mrs V has authorised 'counter trend trades' and ones that are just common sense key SR areas with good candles etc. But we are getting more and more aware that above/below D rsi 50 level (you can pick your equivalent ema) will signal trends of 2 - 6 weeks....
The battle (with the mind as much as the markets) begins Monday again. Mrs V has a touch of flu/sinus so I'm on tidy up breakfast/lunch/dinner dishwasher duties today.

Got Rush in Rio on the dvd, think I'll play Closer to the Heart about 5 times, a classic.
  • #4,456
  • Jul 11, 2011 5:48am Jul 11, 2011 5:48am
Two EU trades this morning. Daily, 4 hr and 1 hr all have rsi below 50 level.

At LO 1hr down, 15 min down, 5 min lh no lower wick rejection of 75 level.
Entry at 4163. After strong push below 4150/MS2 combo moved stop to 4153 locking in +10 to see if this level would hold on a retest. Turned out to be the least favourable exit strategy. Application of the auto-bank indicator or a simple stop move to BE would have been better.

Re-entered on 2nd arrow down but was watching very carefully after large volume came in on the last 15 min bar leaving a lower wick, also 5 min divergence got me out at BE when price failed to push on down.

So one at +10, one BE so far.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,457
  • Jul 11, 2011 6:40am Jul 11, 2011 6:40am
This made me focus on EU this morning rather than GU.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,458
  • Jul 11, 2011 6:52am Jul 11, 2011 6:52am
Hi Ian
Have a look at eurchf also, I suppose with the eurozone tanking money also moving to chf. Its 5 day atr for now is stunning, long may it continue.

Perfect set ups today with D, 4hr, 1hr all below 50 rsi (or roughly = to all below their 8 ma's)
  • #4,459
  • Edited 7:40am Jul 11, 2011 6:59am | Edited 7:40am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Ian
Have a look at eurchf also, I suppose with the eurozone tanking money also moving to chf. Its 5 day atr for now is stunning, long may it continue.

Perfect set ups today with D, 4hr, 1hr all below 50 rsi (or roughly = to all below their 8 ma's)
Yes I expect the Swiss are very unhappy about that.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,460
  • Jul 12, 2011 5:34am Jul 12, 2011 5:34am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Ian
Have a look at eurchf also, I suppose with the eurozone tanking money also moving to chf. Its 5 day atr for now is stunning, long may it continue.

Perfect set ups today with D, 4hr, 1hr all below 50 rsi (or roughly = to all below their 8 ma's)
Just going throu these charts.. day throu to 15.. Hell of an observation Vantage..Hell of a trade .. Hope u traded it..Re your comment re 5 day ATR.. I have never used it or understand it..Any chance of a quick over view of your understanding of it and how u use it??
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