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95% winners live test

  • #21
  • Jul 26, 2011 2:24pm Jul 26, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
Hi everyone!
My trade this morning was a quick one. I entered right before a quick move up. Got to love when that happens. Many trades will act like this where TP is hit very fast.

Some of you asked about SL. I have a 95 pip SL. This is where my account will receive a margin call with a 500:1 leverage. So this means that 95% of my trades will stay with in this mark.

Remember, i am taking a bit of a gamble with this. You can see that I'm risking 50k with this system but in reality I only have a 5% chance of losing my account based on my 9 months...
i'd guess you use some kind of a strategy that aligns moving averages across multiple timeframes (5, 15, 1hr e.g.) and once the lowest TF aligns with higher ones you take the shot. it might be combined with some kind of a breakthrough strategy (inner pinbars or something like that).

but, at the end of the day, it's not interesting guessing your thoughts since you're here either to share your system or gather aplause and compliment that you're master of the universe. either way - guessing is not needed.
big numbers are our friends...
  • #22
  • Jul 26, 2011 2:34pm Jul 26, 2011 2:34pm
Congratulation Cubby. You've clearly got something great here. Well done.

I guess, like others have said, we could have a guessing game, or in the spirit of this board you might be incredibly generous and share you philosophy, to which you'll probably receive even great acclaim for your generosity and genius in equal measure.

Luckily with such liquidity in the market you will never compete against other retail traders like those here, so you could be generous and share your insights if you were kind.

We'd all love to know. We might even be able to suggest ways to improve it. You are projecting ona 95% win ratio (there's room for improvement. Just.)

Good job!
  • #23
  • Jul 26, 2011 3:14pm Jul 26, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting deeZG
i'd guess you use some kind of a strategy that aligns moving averages across multiple timeframes (5, 15, 1hr e.g.) and once the lowest TF aligns with higher ones you take the shot. it might be combined with some kind of a breakthrough strategy (inner pinbars or something like that).

but, at the end of the day, it's not interesting guessing your thoughts since you're here either to share your system or gather aplause and compliment that you're master of the universe. either way - guessing is not needed.
I've been here long enough to know that these kinds of comments come by. This is a bit of a ornery post.

I'm not asking for prase here. I'm not saying I found the holly grail and I've fully stated the risks invalved in this kind of trading. I don't believe any system or method should be prased because we're all here for the same reason and that's to make money. The holy grail does not exist but I know that there are ways to get huge results in the forex. They are just hard to find.

I've given away a lot of info regarding the system here. Almost enough for some of you to figure out what it is I use. Just knowing that I use a 10 pip TP and a 95 pip SL is a huge part of the system and if you just look at different indi options and time frames you can see that it can be very useful.

Cubby
  • #24
  • Jul 26, 2011 3:35pm Jul 26, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting r2997790
Congratulation Cubby. You've clearly got something great here. Well done.

I guess, like others have said, we could have a guessing game, or in the spirit of this board you might be incredibly generous and share you philosophy, to which you'll probably receive even great acclaim for your generosity and genius in equal measure.

Luckily with such liquidity in the market you will never compete against other retail traders like those here, so you could be generous and share your insights if you were kind.

We'd all love to know. We might even...
Thanks man.

Yeah, I'm still thinking about sharing the system. I just don't think that the info should be shared so freely. I'vs gotten so many private messages from people wanting this system. It's kind of frustrating that a lot of the people here don't want to work for there success. Its like they're looking for some magical tree that grows cash as flowers. Lol.

I do agree that system could possibly be improved by posting it here but I have one problem...

I bought so many systems in the past 4 years on the web and almost all of them were total crap. I want to change this by possibly selling this one. You know... One that actually works!!

I would not sell the system for a lot as I would not be out to make a tun of cash. My money is made from trading.

Hopefuly this isn't to much of a disappointment to some of you. I'm still debating if I want to share it in full here for free. Just seeing how much response this thread receives.

Cubby
  • #25
  • Jul 26, 2011 3:47pm Jul 26, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
I've been here long enough to know that these kinds of comments come by. This is a bit of a ornery post.

I'm not asking for prase here. I'm not saying I found the holly grail and I've fully stated the risks invalved in this kind of trading. I don't believe any system or method should be prased because we're all here for the same reason and that's to make money. The holy grail does not exist but I know that there are ways to get huge results in the forex. They are just hard to find.

I've given away a lot of info regarding the system here. Almost...

Quote
Thanks man.

Yeah, I'm still thinking about sharing the system. I just don't think that the info should be shared so freely. I'vs gotten so many private messages from people wanting this system. It's kind of frustrating that a lot of the people here don't want to work for there success. Its like they're looking for some magical tree that grows cash as flowers. Lol.

I do agree that system could possibly be improved by posting it here but I have one problem...

I bought so many systems in the past 4 years on the web and almost all of them were...
You are free to call my posting style how ever you want. The fact is: you are the one that came with 'i have 95% winning system', no one came to you. And you're the one that started with puzzle solving stuff.
Now, with that being said there are two possible options, as i said:

1) you want praise
2) you're as generous to share your system with other (purpose of the forum is to share infos)

obviously, I've missed the third one:
3) you want to sell the system

Be aware of the fact that i have nothing against any of these options. I don't know why did you get an impression that i do. Whatever is the case it's completely ok and valid.
The only point i made is that guessing is - irrelevant.

And believe it or not, but i do aplause and praise you for a such successful system regardless if you share it's details with us or not.
big numbers are our friends...
  • #26
  • Jul 26, 2011 3:55pm Jul 26, 2011 3:55pm
Cubby, I take your post at face value. You must be pleased with your success and happy to share news of your insights. I can understand you being a little cautious of wanting to share it with everyone.

Good for you for finding something that works.
  • #27
  • Jul 26, 2011 4:05pm Jul 26, 2011 4:05pm
Quoting deeZG
You are free to call my posting style how ever you want. The fact is: you are the one that came with 'i have 95% winning system', no one came to you. And you're the one that started with puzzle solving stuff.
Now, with that being said there are two possible options, as i said:

1) you want praise
2) you're as generous to share your system with other (purpose of the forum is to share infos)

obviously, I've missed the third one:
3) you want to sell the system

Be aware of the fact that i have nothing against any of these options. I don't know...

This clarifies things a little better for me. I've shared a total of 3 systems on FF and I feel I've help some traders find some success. I mean I've already given a lot back to the comunity. It's hard to give up a system because then people tare you apart and say very rude and smarty things. It's a lot for me to handle and I promised myself that I wouldn't share another system on FF sense my Profit All Day thread. This is why I made this post on theTrading Journals forum.

Just curious though....what do you guys think this system should be worth if I sold it?

I would include a money back guaranty because I know the system is good

Thanks for your post. I'm sorry I got a bit snappy.

I guess my reason for posting this system was because I was pretty excited about what I had found and wanted to show that a 95% win rate was possible. Also, wanted to see how much interest there would be in the system as well.

I guess it was more excitement then anything.

Cubby
  • #28
  • Jul 26, 2011 4:28pm Jul 26, 2011 4:28pm
If your system is 95% win, just slap 10 lots on a trade for starters, thats good for 300,000 a year. why bother selling your system ???????????????????????, As far as telling us your system, you don`t have to, were proud of you and it inspires us to search hard and long for patterns that can produce your results. Having said that if you do wanna share, I have pen and paper ready !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #29
  • Jul 26, 2011 4:48pm Jul 26, 2011 4:48pm
Hi, Cubby

As this thread is in the journal section you are not obligated to tell anyone your system & I for one quite enjoy trying to work it out for myself (more clues please!).

As for what it's worth? well you might want to consider the fact that you would be selling a system that one day WILL blow your account, whilst those with any sense would make provision for this, some won't and may try to take legal action, I know Ronald raygun has had this trouble with some of the EA's he has posted.

Just something to consider.

That said I would buy it, say £20?

Steve.
  • #30
  • Jul 26, 2011 5:23pm Jul 26, 2011 5:23pm
Hi,

if you only withdraw 50% of your profits you have a negative expected value in the long run. With a 95% win rate you have a 63% chance of making 9 good trades in a row (0.95^9), so you have a 37% chance of blowing your account before you make it to day 9.

You say that you gain 107% if you make it to day nine, but you withdraw only 50% of this 107% profit. So you get.. 0.63*(1.07/2)+0.37*(-1) = -0.03295, a loss of about 3% every nine days. This has to do with the fact that you will lose every 50% profit that you did not withdraw when the blowout eventually occurs.

However, if you withdraw the full 107% profit every time you get: 0.63*1.07+0.37*(-1) = 0.3041, a 30% average return on investment every nine days! BUT: you have to take into consideration that you have a 37% chance of blowing your account. This also means that you have a big chance of blowing multiple accounts in a row; Better only use very small accounts with this system.. you'll have about 100% return a month but you have to be able to take the consecutive blowouts when they occur.

And.. are you sure the 95% number is correct? Might be higher if you went months without losers, how did you calculate this?
  • #31
  • Jul 26, 2011 8:11pm Jul 26, 2011 8:11pm
A fellow Blackhatter would have your strategy posted with all indicators etc on all boards, it would make you nothing in the long run.

My advice is look like the nice guy you say you are and share it with the community. I have commissioned indicators with my own money and have shared them freely.

And if what the guy above said, you have a 37% chance of blowing your account, charging for this would seem, well shitty...

Whatevs..
  • #32
  • Jul 26, 2011 10:34pm Jul 26, 2011 10:34pm
Quoting StrategyCode
Hi,

if you only withdraw 50% of your profits you have a negative expected value in the long run. With a 95% win rate you have a 63% chance of making 9 good trades in a row (0.95^9), so you have a 37% chance of blowing your account before you make it to day 9.

You say that you gain 107% if you make it to day nine, but you withdraw only 50% of this 107% profit. So you get.. 0.63*(1.07/2)+0.37*(-1) = -0.03295, a loss of about 3% every nine days. This has to do with the fact that you will lose every 50% profit that you did not withdraw when the...

I like what you did here. This is the kind of help that makes me want to share the system. You may be right with some of this info here. Profiting 10% per trade + compounding can be a bit dangerous. It's not necessarily the best way to trade this system.

The safest way to trade this system would be to use 1-2% profit per trade with a 100 pip SL.

I calculated about 200 trades and out of 200, 8 of them were 100 pip SL's.

This still ads up to about 1080 profited pips using 1% profit per trade over the last 9 months.

If 2% was used this number would be 2160 pips. So you can see that any way you look at the system it is still profitable.

You may have noticed that I took my one trade tonight because I will be missing the NY session tomorrow because of traveling. This is a bit of a bummer because my calculations of trades were taken during the NY session.

This trade I took still fallowed the rules but it's a lot less volitial time so it may take some time for the the trade to hit TP.

cubby
  • #33
  • Jul 26, 2011 10:54pm Jul 26, 2011 10:54pm
Another hint!

Losses were from trades on these dates!

account blown from trade on 11/4
account blown from trade on 1/11
account blown from trade on 1/25
account blown from trade on 2/16
account blown from trade on 2/28
account blown from trade on 3/7
account blown from trade on 4/12
account blown from trade on 4/25
  • #34
  • Jul 26, 2011 11:29pm Jul 26, 2011 11:29pm
This is interesting
  • #35
  • Jul 26, 2011 11:48pm Jul 26, 2011 11:48pm
Looks like you might have made 10 pips on that open trade just about now.
  • #36
  • Jul 26, 2011 11:53pm Jul 26, 2011 11:53pm
Quoting pipexplorer1
Looks like you might have made 10 pips on that open trade just about now.

I did indeed!

I just need 4 more trades now to get to my 107%.

Cubby
  • #37
  • Jul 27, 2011 12:30am Jul 27, 2011 12:30am
I'll subscribe to this thread, I appreciate any free info (no matter how vague) you're willing to share. Thanks.
  • #38
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:24am Jul 27, 2011 1:24am
I got a little worried that Strategycode may have found a weekness in my system.

I decided to look into more possibilities. What I found is that there are multible ways to trade this system.

I found an even more accurate system with in mine just by adding an extra indicator. I have done testing from 2/25-7/27. I will keep testing but I need sleep.

My backtests are accurate! They are based off of a 2.5 pip EU spread and none repainting indicators. I have found only 2 95 pip losses from 2/25-7/27!!

The new system changes allow for faster time length of trades. Most trades TP are hit with in 1 hour of entry. There is also the possibility of looking into more then just one trade per day. This system may have even more Power to it then I originally thought. I'm starting to wonder if I can some how get the win % all the way up to 100%. The only new problem is that you will have to be fast on your entry's. Fast entry when conditions are met is massively important!

So far I have 5 months of testing done with new changes. That's about 100 trades and only 2 losses. That's a 98% win rate! Dang I want to share this system with you guys.... Just dont know if I should yet till it's at least done....we will see.

Cubby.
  • #39
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:39am Jul 27, 2011 1:39am
Have you considered keeping the lot size constant? Allowing 10% gain, it would take ten trades instead of nine to double your money but as the account increased you could afford a bigger stoploss in pips.

For example on a £1000 account by the fifth trade you would have £1500 so your stoploss could be about 142 pips. Or you could keep the SL the same and if you lost the next trade you'd still have £500 in the account instead of blowing it.
  • #40
  • Jul 27, 2011 2:49am Jul 27, 2011 2:49am
There's a saying some of you may have heard before...

"If it sounds too good to be true..."

You know the rest.
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