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Fail Better

  • #1,081
  • Jul 26, 2011 3:36am Jul 26, 2011 3:36am
Quoting 5.25
Tom, I've been following your method for quite some time. Was hoping whether you or anyone else here can validate this level as a "high probability trade".

1.2800 audnzd looking good on daily and 4h charts. 61.8% fibs as confluence?

I know you don't trade this pair.

Thanks in advance.
Looks like a good level.

But you must remember the level is not the single reason a high probability trade opportunity is created.

You also need to watch how price trades into these areas.
  • #1,082
  • Jul 26, 2011 6:23am Jul 26, 2011 6:23am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad.gif Size: 16 KB


Could she be a corker...
  • #1,083
  • Jul 26, 2011 6:44am Jul 26, 2011 6:44am
waiting for this on USDCAD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,084
  • Jul 26, 2011 6:59am Jul 26, 2011 6:59am
Quoting the_wizard
Looks like a good level.

But you must remember the level is not the single reason a high probability trade opportunity is created.

You also need to watch how price trades into these areas.
Tom what should we be looking for in terms of the way price should be trading into our S/R Levels?
  • #1,085
  • Jul 26, 2011 7:31am Jul 26, 2011 7:31am
Hello Tom and Traders,

I was looking at my charts and got a little confused. I see this possible PB and SFP setup. But then I noticed that it may also be a spider (98 RN) which price is less and less scared.

How would you view this situation? Which on would this be?

Best,
Adi
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sfp or spider.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #1,086
  • Jul 26, 2011 8:47am Jul 26, 2011 8:47am
Quoting canados
waiting for this on USDCAD
Ops, I have to remember to watch ATR more often. Daily has reached ATR(20), so it was not a good idea to go short
  • #1,087
  • Jul 26, 2011 8:54am Jul 26, 2011 8:54am
Quoting Adilius07
Hello Tom and Traders,

I was looking at my charts and got a little confused. I see this possible PB and SFP setup. But then I noticed that it may also be a spider (98 RN) which price is less and less scared.

How would you view this situation? Which on would this be?

Best,
Adi
I know what is SFP (Swing Failure pattern).. what is Spider ? Woud you please refresh my memory about Spider ?
  • #1,088
  • Jul 26, 2011 10:05am Jul 26, 2011 10:05am
Quoting simplebeans
Tom what should we be looking for in terms of the way price should be trading into our S/R Levels?
I would say that you have to have profit potential. It means that for shorts you want strong bull candle into the level, ideally over ATR and not crawling price into the level, or with the consolidation below the level as the brakeout of the consolidation might be rapid, with no supply left at the level (for shorts). When you see how price approaches the level you can see the first trouble area to exit at.
  • #1,089
  • Edited 4:56pm Jul 26, 2011 4:27pm | Edited 4:56pm
Quoting simplebeans
Tom what should we be looking for in terms of the way price should be trading into our S/R Levels?
Hi Tom ,

I second that question. You have mentioned during the last webinar, for instance, that unless price action moves straight down with very high volatility to 1.0784 on aud/usd, you will be buying this level.

Is there any other specific PA , you don't like to see before setting limit order?

I know that it is a bit off topic but , for example, from VSA (volume spread analysis) perspective generally it would be good to see on retest either
1. extremely high volume (buying -selling climax, shakeout action )- bars are usually wide
or
2. extremely low volume (lack of professional money participation)- bars rather small.
What would not be good to see is steadily growing, mid-level volume on bars approaching level.
I mention it because it is first thing that comes to my mind and I'm watching volume consistently.

By the way, thanks for great knowledge you are sharing with us.

All the best,
Chris
Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #1,090
  • Edited 9:57pm Jul 26, 2011 8:19pm | Edited 9:57pm
Hey Tom,
I see that you do not usually take a TT off s/r immediately after price has broken through (a.k.a. the butt kiss), but play the rounded retest. What are your reasons for skipping the butt kiss?

Grant
“Make everything as simple as possible, but no simpler.” – Albert Einstein
  • #1,091
  • Jul 26, 2011 9:54pm Jul 26, 2011 9:54pm
Quoting cprao
I know what is SFP (Swing Failure pattern).. what is Spider ? Woud you please refresh my memory about Spider ?
Hi Cprao, I'm not the best to explain. But I understand "Spider" as a certain price level to which price is trying to come and bounces off hard each time (like if it saw a spider and got freaked out) however each time Price see the same spider it is less and less scared of it (thus making a higher lows on each attepmt - if spider is resistance) then at some point Price is not scared of this spider anymore as it seen it so many times and finally breaks free

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1308746865
  • #1,092
  • Jul 26, 2011 9:59pm Jul 26, 2011 9:59pm
After like 10 hours thinking about it, I finally declared it SFP and now have my sell order awaiting below the Pin. Red Line is First Trouble Area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,093
  • Jul 26, 2011 10:49pm Jul 26, 2011 10:49pm
First time back . Buy at resistance ?
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  • #1,094
  • Jul 26, 2011 11:06pm Jul 26, 2011 11:06pm
Quoting Adilius07
Hi Cprao, I'm not the best to explain. But I understand "Spider" as a certain price level to which price is trying to come and bounces off hard each time (like if it saw a spider and got freaked out) however each time Price see the same spider it is less and less scared of it (thus making a higher lows on each attepmt - if spider is resistance) then at some point Price is not scared of this spider anymore as it seen it so many times and finally breaks free

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1308746865...
Ok. Got it.

Interesting, now the spider could also become a retracement trade (buy at resistance) when the price finally broke through that level.
  • #1,095
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:36am Jul 27, 2011 1:36am
Quoting cprao
Ok. Got it.

Interesting, now the spider could also become a retracement trade (buy at resistance) when the price finally broke through that level.
Yeah, I think that is exaclty what Tom and others look for: spider has broken to the uspide then price makes a rounded retest to that level, where they buy.

I hope I got it right.

EDIT: lol. exactly like in the previos chart you posted "first time back"
  • #1,096
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:56am Jul 27, 2011 1:56am
This explanation was easier for me to recall when trading lol
Quoting the_wizard
So, I'm on Skype discussing the spider pattern with another trader and he used such an excellent analogy I wanted to share it with you.

For those of you casanovas out there - take heed ;-)

The market moves up and sells off.

It comes back to KISS the previous high. Then it sells off and resistance is confirmed.

It makes a higher low and soon enough comes back for another KISS of the level. Again, the markets amorous advances are repelled by the female who fights valiently to retain her chastity :-)

But each time she gets weaker...
And good luck to you Adilius07.
  • #1,097
  • Jul 27, 2011 2:06am Jul 27, 2011 2:06am
Read the thread.

If you don't know what the spider is, you clearly haven't even bothered to read the entire thread.

Therefore, you are lazy. Therefore, you want success in trading to be given to you on a plate. Therefore, you will NOT succeed unless you change your attitude towards trading.

Sorry for the rant, but I get SO annoyed when I see people asking questions that show they haven't read the thread.........

Rob
  • #1,098
  • Jul 27, 2011 2:36am Jul 27, 2011 2:36am
Quoting cprao
First time back . Buy at resistance ?
Looks good to me.

pat
  • #1,099
  • Jul 27, 2011 2:57am Jul 27, 2011 2:57am
Quoting simplebeans
Tom what should we be looking for in terms of the way price should be trading into our S/R Levels?
I will discuss this in the next webinar.
  • #1,100
  • Jul 27, 2011 2:59am Jul 27, 2011 2:59am
Quoting Adilius07
Hello Tom and Traders,

I was looking at my charts and got a little confused. I see this possible PB and SFP setup. But then I noticed that it may also be a spider (98 RN) which price is less and less scared.

How would you view this situation? Which on would this be?

Best,
Adi
That is a tricky one and if in doubt, I would stay out until you have more information.

Not having a position is a position.
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