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NZD/USD

  • #501
  • Jul 20, 2011 8:48pm Jul 20, 2011 8:48pm
Quoting fxking
kiwi is way too OVERBOUGHT!!! is it time for a BIG BEAR to come in to eat this pair up?? LOL...
I would only sell once price reaches .8600 and wait for the swing downwards, but still stay with the overall trend upwards.

Since on the daily charts, this upward move is the effect of a hammer reversal and a SMA 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 perfect order is still in place.

http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/191...aily21july.jpg

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  • #502
  • Jul 21, 2011 12:09am Jul 21, 2011 12:09am
PA RISING - See below

Targeting 8700 next
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZD bullish flag and current pa.GIF Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd top blown.GIF Size: 28 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #503
  • Jul 21, 2011 7:47am Jul 21, 2011 7:47am
Going to start shorting the NZD/USD, but be careful...the trick here is money management skills.
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #504
  • Jul 21, 2011 7:52am Jul 21, 2011 7:52am
It's a good time to start shorting, could go higher 8620-8650 maybe... but 87 seems a little far-fetched IMO...

Anyway, safe trading people!
  • #505
  • Jul 21, 2011 8:02am Jul 21, 2011 8:02am
Shorted at 0.8600, hope that it can ride down to 0.8550
  • #506
  • Jul 21, 2011 8:36am Jul 21, 2011 8:36am
I think we might go into the wknd on the upside...might hit .87 maybe high 86's...but use proper money management and low leverage and it should be a good trade. I am using low leverage and averaging in all the way up to 87 ish...as to I see fit. Next week I think we head into the $hitter.
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #507
  • Jul 21, 2011 8:46am Jul 21, 2011 8:46am
i think its gonna follow that rising channel, shorting at 8620 would be a good option with 20 pips stop. this pair is scary. I see 88 in near term but gota go down 83 1st
Lets Soar The Sky
  • #508
  • Jul 21, 2011 10:49am Jul 21, 2011 10:49am
If this continues, I think one day nzd will become the base currency of the world. Ideally should not be more than 0.8000 so clearly 600 pips more overvalued. IMF should come and speak now otherwise this mockery will continue.
  • #509
  • Jul 21, 2011 11:05am Jul 21, 2011 11:05am


Quoting Nachiket
If this continues, I think one day nzd will become the base currency of the world. Ideally should not be more than 0.8000 so clearly 600 pips more overvalued. IMF should come and speak now otherwise this mockery will continue.
  • #510
  • Jul 21, 2011 11:07am Jul 21, 2011 11:07am
lol your post above made my day
  • #511
  • Jul 21, 2011 11:43am Jul 21, 2011 11:43am
my only concern at this point is that the gdp of nzd is roughly the same as the state of vermont or new mexico. A dollar parity or close, only accentuates the concern of the USA economy and the impact it will have on the rest of the world. I am deeply concerned that we are beyond the limitations and in the realm of "no turning back". I think we are presently seeing a shift of economic power and what repercussions will this have on the economy? This in my eyes is not good! this will take years to recover. Its the trickling down effect that is concerning...and the fact that gold is going higher and higher..
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #512
  • Edited 12:30pm Jul 21, 2011 12:18pm | Edited 12:30pm
Quoting frothy
my only concern at this point is that the gdp of nzd is roughly the same as the state of vermont or new mexico. A dollar parity or close, only accentuates the concern of the USA economy and the impact it will have on the rest of the world. I am deeply concerned that we are beyond the limitations and in the realm of "no turning back". I think we are presently seeing a shift of economic power and what repercussions will this have on the economy? This in my eyes is not good! this will take years to recover. Its the trickling down effect that is...
there are three reasons why nzd is rising

1) China is buying it

2) heavy and persistent buying activity on a less traded currency like NZD naturally amplify the moves

3) market is shifting from AUD to NZD

these levels are good for shorts, as in the short term some correction is due, there is potencial USD recovery if good news on US debt front come out
but, any dip around 82 - 83 should provide new buying opportunity for a rise above 90.
I think we will see 92 - 94 in the last part of 2011
  • #513
  • Jul 21, 2011 1:12pm Jul 21, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting fammira
there are three reasons why nzd is rising

1) China is buying it

2) heavy and persistent buying activity on a less traded currency like NZD naturally amplify the moves

3) market is shifting from AUD to NZD

these levels are good for shorts, as in the short term some correction is due, there is potencial USD recovery if good news on US debt front come out
but, any dip around 82 - 83 should provide new buying opportunity for a rise above 90.
I think we will see 92 - 94 in the last part of 2011
I agree, there isn't much news that are to be released until the weekend, we could see some price consolidation and correction.

Will be watching the bollinger bands for some short term swings and h4, daily charts for possible reversal and the us congress outcome on the usd debt ceiling
  • #514
  • Jul 22, 2011 2:43am Jul 22, 2011 2:43am
Anyone spotted the potential double top forming on the h1 chart?
  • #515
  • Jul 22, 2011 2:59am Jul 22, 2011 2:59am
NZD is not reacting to any news and simply going up. I was holding a short which I closed today morning in small profit and after that it has run up 50 pips. NewZealand Prime Minister said that the currency is hughely overvalued. Not reacted to that news as well. Infact the kiwi reacts positively/negatively to visitor arrivals data. That data was bad and still the kiwi rallied. An indication is topping up not near. May be we can see it @0.8700 or @0.8750. Fingers crossed but this pair is really gone mad. Will short @0.8700 above 0.8650 it will be in free rise area like free fall will stop anywhere.
  • #516
  • Jul 22, 2011 3:39am Jul 22, 2011 3:39am
well if the pair isn't following fundamentals it follows technical s,there is a clear trend line on 4h ,since 0.81 drop and until that line isn't clearly crossed,it will go higher,but the top is close for now anyway,and still probably gonna need to wait till next week for some kind proper retracement.
  • #517
  • Jul 22, 2011 5:33am Jul 22, 2011 5:33am
Quoting Nachiket
NZD is not reacting to any news and simply going up. I was holding a short which I closed today morning in small profit and after that it has run up 50 pips. NewZealand Prime Minister said that the currency is hughely overvalued. Not reacted to that news as well. Infact the kiwi reacts positively/negatively to visitor arrivals data. That data was bad and still the kiwi rallied. An indication is topping up not near. May be we can see it @0.8700 or @0.8750. Fingers crossed but this pair is really gone mad. Will short @0.8700 above 0.8650 it will be...
this pair is actually quite technical, and I don't think arrivals data is very important.
GDP and expectations for a rate hike are far more important

short from here and up to above 87 should work very well in the short temr for a return around 83 - 83.50
  • #518
  • Jul 22, 2011 5:41am Jul 22, 2011 5:41am
My bad about the double top, guess I was just waiting for price to drop (missed my TP by 3pips in the early asian dip )

Seems like 0.8590 seems to be a strong support while price went slightly above the 0.8660 resistance before coming down, waiting for the current h1 candlestick to close as shooting star
  • #519
  • Jul 22, 2011 5:51am Jul 22, 2011 5:51am
gonna repeat myself until the trendline holds it wont go down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #520
  • Jul 22, 2011 6:12am Jul 22, 2011 6:12am
Quoting jayjb
My bad about the double top, guess I was just waiting for price to drop (missed my TP by 3pips in the early asian dip )

Seems like 0.8590 seems to be a strong support while price went slightly above the 0.8660 resistance before coming down, waiting for the current h1 candlestick to close as shooting star
looks like such things as shooting star gives no sh!t to the bears. i guess no surprise for today, week is over. However, holding shorts, target 0.83 as mentioned earlier
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