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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #26,581
  • Jul 20, 2011 12:09pm Jul 20, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting fti
hi Amanah
thanks for read, i only suspected.

sorry late to reply.
was busy with name switches, the bank cannot do the name and we ran smack into them. So had to pull some strings. its nice have friendly brokers.


regards
FTI,

No problem. I find that my costliest scorpion is "Analysis Paralysis." I'm the kind of person that analyses something eights ways 'till sunday before I act because I want to be sure I'm right! But trading does not afford me this luxury. I have to learn to yield to the market, instead of trying to outsmart her and delude myself into thinking I'm one step ahead of her, all the while she's actually waving bye-bye to me through her rear view mirror. I'm having trouble getting over this, any suggestions?

From AOW

There are five dangerous faults which may affect a general:

(1) Recklessness, which leads to destruction;
(2) Cowardice, which leads to capture;
(3) A hasty temper, which can be provoked by insults;
(4) A delicacy of honor, which is sensitive to shame;
(5) Over-solicitude of his men, which exposes him to worry and trouble.


I'm still grappling with faults (4) and (5).

~Amanah
  • #26,582
  • Jul 20, 2011 6:41pm Jul 20, 2011 6:41pm
Could anyone explain this erratic behavior I see in $/Y?
I just checked. Both Oanda and Alpari have the same madness.
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #26,583
  • Jul 20, 2011 6:54pm Jul 20, 2011 6:54pm
Quoting luSan
Could anyone explain this erratic behavior I see in $/Y?
I just checked. Both Oanda and Alpari have the same madness.
Someone either lightening a short load, or someone buying, but no one else is bothering to take it anywhere.

Yen is stalemated, shorts don't want to get out yet but below is danger area provoking BOJ, so it sets till someone makes next move
  • #26,584
  • Jul 20, 2011 7:01pm Jul 20, 2011 7:01pm
Quoting auxesis
Someone either lightening a short load, or someone buying, but no one else is bothering to take it anywhere.

Yen is stalemated, shorts don't want to get out yet but below is danger area provoking BOJ, so it sets till someone makes next move
Thanks...that is a good description...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #26,585
  • Jul 20, 2011 7:06pm Jul 20, 2011 7:06pm
Quoting Amanah
FTI,

No problem. I find that my costliest scorpion is "Analysis Paralysis." I'm the kind of person that analyses something eights ways 'till sunday before I act because I want to be sure I'm right! But trading does not afford me this luxury. I have to learn to yield to the market, instead of trying to outsmart her and delude myself into thinking I'm one step ahead of her, all the while she's actually waving bye-bye to me through her rear view mirror. I'm having trouble getting over this, any suggestions?

From AOW

There are five dangerous...
Hi Amanah,

Yes, is dangerous scorpion, But there is no quick fixes.Its the problem of success, and being taught TA fallacy by masses makes things worst.
You see, my friend, to engage the markets requires capital. And to have any for the endevour requires us to be succesful in life, so most of us will had learned to be confident in ourselfs. Thru sucesses in life, we build layers and layers of confidence , then we begin to want better the odds, and we train ourselfs to analyse. In that process, some kind of predictive bias process creeps into the mindset. And we begin formulate more and more rigidity to expectations and bias and as it sets, we tend mistaken biasness and expectations with predictive rigidity. Over analysis of the markets slowly rigids our outlook that we begin lose the capacity to react to "bottom line" changes.

Other factors that can affect is lifestyle and distractions from focus.
Every trader/dealer have to deal with the same scorpions, takes years of delegent hammering to shield off the destructive influences. Some succeeds in the short run and later succumbs to them again.

I deal with it this way thruout the years. I know i will be very rigid in life as I am very sturbborn personality with perfectionist inclinations to honour and uprightness. So what i do is i hold very rigidly to praying the lords prayer, praying regularly so as not be lead into temptations and allow my rigidity to God for deliverance. dealing with rigidity by rigidity.I also listen with focus to all mundaneness that i not feel above anything. Now in life i learned not be on top of the hill. Although on top of hills sees far and wide, but from that vantage point sees no details. After inspecting the on top of hill view sometimes, then i quickly move to mundane details levels of living when operating and just flow with the tides. My way of "walking with kings and sleeping with beggers".

Simplistic living and giving away what i achieve regularly to family and needy also helps me stay hungry that i am able hold to mindset. I only hold to required capitals and park most gains in contingency funds away from easy reach, only to be accessed for rainy days. "rainy days wood" if you like.

This my way of dealing with my own rigidity and i hope may have some insights to help you navigate yours.

regards
  • #26,586
  • Edited 7:30pm Jul 20, 2011 7:10pm | Edited 7:30pm
Quoting luSan
Could anyone explain this erratic behavior I see in $/Y?
I just checked. Both Oanda and Alpari have the same madness.
No need explanation.

Markets is illiquid and manipulated. Totally manipulated now. In fact seems no markets. We need flow carefully until situation normalises. And may take some time get the mafias out of the markets.They can see blotters and they manipulating all our blotters. They can see all our stops. Some think by no stops they cannot. In fact they can see all your mandatory account buyins for leveraged accounts.These are the worst stops. In OTC environment, where there is no infraction rules, they can move markets anywhere without trading it just to have you for dinner. The illquidity helps.Be sexy enough and you are victims in masses of anchorbies.So use the leverage wisely.size by accounts ratios wisely. I find close to impossibilty manage the experimental leveraged experiments. Only my full cash positions are doing exceptionally.



regards
  • #26,587
  • Jul 20, 2011 7:13pm Jul 20, 2011 7:13pm
Quoting fti
No need explanation.

Markets is illiquid and manipulated. Totally manipulated now. We need flow carefully until situation normalises. And may take some time get the mafias out of the markets.They can see blotters and they manipulating all our blotters.
regards
  • #26,588
  • Jul 20, 2011 7:23pm Jul 20, 2011 7:23pm
Fti,

Question, from your time at the banks, If for example earlier it was rumored that Panda was stepping in buying Euro's, I would expect to see all Euro parings affected in tandem, but when we have a spill over simultaneously into other crosses is that a type of hedging/squaring or risk avoidance from the banks having to push large orders?

regards
  • #26,589
  • Edited 8:01pm Jul 20, 2011 7:33pm | Edited 8:01pm
Quoting auxesis
Fti,

Question, from your time at the banks, If for example earlier it was rumored that Panda was stepping in buying Euro's, I would expect to see all Euro parings affected in tandem, but when we have a spill over simultaneously into other crosses is that a type of hedging/squaring or risk avoidance from the banks having to push large orders?

regards
This not banks, they not even have a handle on the markets now.
even tier is not wanting quote, unless is prime customers.something else is in control.
All quoting is "back to back".No prices unless they leaning on 3rd party bid or offers or paper.
The spill overs is just arbitragers in action.

Markets are in riot mode.Need CBs come in control, or is it the CBs operating in stealth mode? No picture no sound yet.
Historically CBs are very honourable and informs markets of their actions. They changed that for a few years already.
Now is hard tell CBs from thiefs.
Please do not assume all paper coming out of china sector is panda. What i saw is bunch of names banks cannot do. Anyway thats what they told me.Every body seems begging for name switches thru broking. Seems tons of scratching done over broking just for name switches..

regards
  • #26,590
  • Jul 20, 2011 7:42pm Jul 20, 2011 7:42pm
Quoting fti
Hi Amanah,

Yes, is dangerous scorpion, But there is no quick fixes.Its the problem of success, and being taught TA fallacy by masses makes things worst.
You see, my friend, to engage the markets requires capital. And to have any for the endevour requires us to be succesful in life, so most of us will had learned to be confident in ourselfs. Thru sucesses in life, we build layers and layers of confidence , then we begin to want better the odds, and we train ourselfs to analyse. In that process, some kind of predictive bias process creeps into...
You have given me plenty to reflect upon. Thank You!
  • #26,591
  • Jul 20, 2011 8:04pm Jul 20, 2011 8:04pm
Quoting fti
No need explanation.

Markets is illiquid and manipulated. Totally manipulated now. In fact seems no markets. We need flow carefully until situation normalises. And may take some time get the mafias out of the markets.They can see blotters and they manipulating all our blotters. They can see all our stops. Some think by no stops they cannot. In fact they can see all your mandatory account buyins for leveraged accounts.These are the worst stops. In OTC environment, where there is no infraction rules, they can move markets anywhere without trading...
Thanks...Now I understand why this market feel so different, actually wrong, versus when I felt began forex trading. I started gearing up with my early dance and I feel that something is odd, specially during the American market.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #26,592
  • Edited Jul 21, 2011 1:45am Jul 20, 2011 8:21pm | Edited Jul 21, 2011 1:45am
Quoting luSan
Thanks...Now I understand why this market feel so different, actually wrong, versus when I felt began forex trading. I started gearing up with my early dance and I feel that something is odd, specially during the American market.
seems to me the whole forex structure is mutating due to core mismanaging.
Too many cooks doing uneducated power changes to core.

Maybe is not education, more like inexperience.
Maybe is just desperation due to lost of control. Just funny skidding feels now.

regards

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  • #26,593
  • Jul 20, 2011 9:45pm Jul 20, 2011 9:45pm
goota get mind in pleasant thoughts.
thinking about hill tops and holidays again.
A walk down memory lanes again.

http://phuketvillas.co/phuket-villas/patong-8-0.html

oh my goodness the inflation.
maybe just penang will do.
  • #26,594
  • Jul 21, 2011 3:30am Jul 21, 2011 3:30am
so, gone for good? or reappeared?

Quoting fti
I saw me.no, i didn't see.
Its very hard to describe.
  • #26,595
  • Jul 21, 2011 3:33am Jul 21, 2011 3:33am
Quoting fti
be aware range in play is 1.4 to 1.5


panda iterates that aud is not international; trade vehicle. They seems tp aud.
but i think at least it has yeilds, much better than the death bed usd with negative yields and under performing even japan who is grasping from natural disaster and their huamn cause ones. The EU peeps seems cannot find their way and stillpondering how to con their way out of impending financial disaster. Eurodollar(not euro, is usd non domincile us) markets had nearly died.

Just for education. the euro(the new european currency)...
Thanks for your insights Fti.
It's going to be interesting how the markets respond to the summit decisions
  • #26,596
  • Jul 21, 2011 4:46am Jul 21, 2011 4:46am
Another kind of dancing going on in Europe today:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43836477
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43836517.

It was just announced on CNBC that Merkel and Sarkozy have agreed to selective default on Greek debt. And so it begins...
  • #26,597
  • Jul 21, 2011 5:28am Jul 21, 2011 5:28am
Quoting GEfx
Another kind of dancing going on in Europe today:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43836477
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43836517.

It was just announced on CNBC that Merkel and Sarkozy have agreed to selective default on Greek debt. And so it begins...
A haircut. Finally. Will take a punch but it's still a better option than bail and technically pay the greedy cheeters with taxpayers' money, IMHO.

And it did help my short game in EURCHF from this morning.

Good trading everyone and stay vigilant.
  • #26,598
  • Edited 11:57pm Jul 21, 2011 11:10pm | Edited 11:57pm
Quoting GEfx
Another kind of dancing going on in Europe today:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43836477
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43836517.

It was just announced on CNBC that Merkel and Sarkozy have agreed to selective default on Greek debt. And so it begins...
Hi Gefx,
thanks for postings , butthse articles have no credibility at all.

i quote you from the articles what i mean.

cnbc.com/id/43836477
Bank Levy Plan Dropped From Greek Bailout

"The decision follows talks between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Wednesday, when they said they had struck a deal on a new package for Athens, but did not release any details."

Not even need read further. if they want privates , let it be privates, I also no interest in their privates. Is like woman comes an says I am pragnant, but not know who's the father.

I will wait until they have the credibility show market a real plan. Normally , when its all privates, it "cannot display in open".

Debt Buyback Idea Gains Ground in Greek Bailout
cnbc.com/id/43836517

"A buyback of Greek debt is the only form of private sector involvement in the second Greek bailout that has a chance of not triggering a downgrade to a selective default rating of Greek debt, a euro zone source said."

ya ya ,euro zone speaks nmight as well be my dog barking.
I no listen to faceless and shameful things that "cannot display in open", either.
You want make trade decisions based on that?

So while they doing their private deals ,

I'll just buy some Euro puts options because if their private plans prove not good when reveiled then the the drop volatility will be killing.Gonna need some insurance. Even if the plan is good, there's another few countries to grind it through.

And the private , men and women hiding behind close doors making deals without details?

To me Euro loses all soverienty as currency.It represents nothing and no one. I will use it, but i will not keep it. It has no store of value.
the people who owes it threatens default.
the people manages it hide in privates.

no no, i'll take silver or gold
, this paper has no value.

regards

Today is friday.So i not want carry anything or start things i cannot finish.
Over the weekend, if no credible plan surfaces, then we kiss euros sayorana.

USD?...eeer , at this interest rates?? maybe not.
maybe aud and NZ is doing fine and dandy.

maybe rating agencies got it right.
the debt is rated junk, so guess whats the value.
i am no karaguniman. maybe should offer it to panda.

may i suggest.............

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  • #26,599
  • Jul 21, 2011 11:54pm Jul 21, 2011 11:54pm
Good Morning FTI!
Nice to see you posting today.
Can you explain why with all these uncertainty in Europe Euro is going up!
Thanks,
Jaro
  • #26,600
  • Jul 22, 2011 12:32am Jul 22, 2011 12:32am
Quoting Jaro
Good Morning FTI!
Nice to see you posting today.
Can you explain why with all these uncertainty in Europe Euro is going up!
Thanks,
Jaro
bear?
ai ya, they may gallotine me or send me to nuremberg.
just guess la.
Haven't you been folowing the postings?
Why do you want to know why?
more of this trash is going come at us, in coming days.

Its not theirs to reason why,
But have the guts to do or die,
What can we do, just flow with their lies.

eer, make sure you not carrying the baby when music stops.
regards
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