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  • #461
  • Jul 21, 2011 4:31am Jul 21, 2011 4:31am
The 1.4200 area has been converted to a good area for shorting in EU (DP, RN, H1 5/50, M15 200).
  • #462
  • Jul 21, 2011 5:19am Jul 21, 2011 5:19am
Quoting kostas1
The 1.4200 area has been converted to a good area for shorting in EU (DP, RN, H1 5/50, M15 200).
Can't argue with the news. Thanks god for SL, lost 15p....

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=305282
  • #463
  • Jul 21, 2011 7:34am Jul 21, 2011 7:34am
Kostas

Would you go short at 1.44?
  • #464
  • Jul 21, 2011 8:19am Jul 21, 2011 8:19am
Quoting cmeade2
Kostas

Would you go short at 1.44?
Seemed like a reasonable trade given that the EU had blown through the R3 and there were no more daily or weekly levels above. A pull back to the R3 seemed to be in order.

It would have netted 30 pips.
  • #465
  • Jul 21, 2011 8:32am Jul 21, 2011 8:32am
Quoting kostas1
Can't argue with the news. Thanks god for SL, lost 15p....

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=305282
since most of the action was news (or rumours) driven today any scenario was possible. first the retest of the last highs with double rejection for both EU and GU, then 140pip trip south due to it. small recovery after that and as you say at around 1.42 for EU (Dp also) we had news again and a lift off for 250 pips.
now if you see the price stall at exactly the 23.6 fib of the previous big swing before the last, at 1.44.
with so fast price action today there very few entries and i suspect most would have played out after the fact.
so all in all i am rather happy i didnt have time today to trade.

if i had to guess on the future i think we should see a retest 1.4280-90 area. :nerd:
  • #466
  • Jul 21, 2011 8:53am Jul 21, 2011 8:53am
This is one reason (although not the main reason) I didn't trade today. EUR red flag calendar event (EU Economic Summit) without a definite time (All day). Even though I don't pay much attention to forex news, this event about the future of Greece ecomony sounds critical.

Quoting kostas1
Can't argue with the news. Thanks god for SL, lost 15p....

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=305282
  • #467
  • Jul 21, 2011 9:15am Jul 21, 2011 9:15am
Quoting cmeade2
Seemed like a reasonable trade given that the EU had blown through the R3 and there were no more daily or weekly levels above. A pull back to the R3 seemed to be in order.

It would have netted 30 pips.
Probably wouldn't want to get in front of this train, but at 1.4423 is the Monthly Pivot, and assuming strong M5 reaction I would short at that area (not the first time it touched the MP, but the second). The first reaction is most times a fake.
Good call about the RN reaction, by the way.
  • #468
  • Jul 21, 2011 1:49pm Jul 21, 2011 1:49pm
it would be interesting to watch the asia's attempt to drive new highs in an already stretched EU day. with the Monthly Pivot just above it would be interesting the least.
  • #469
  • Jul 21, 2011 1:50pm Jul 21, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting kostas1
Probably wouldn't want to get in front of this train, but at 1.4423 is the Monthly Pivot, and assuming strong M5 reaction I would short at that area (not the first time it touched the MP, but the second). The first reaction is most times a fake.
Good call about the RN reaction, by the way.
Looks like we are hitting the MP just before the 5 pm (est) close.
  • #470
  • Jul 21, 2011 6:37pm Jul 21, 2011 6:37pm
Posible NZDUSD LONG !!

Retrace to H1 35/50 just above Daily S1
Confluence with H4 10
  • #471
  • Edited 8:05pm Jul 21, 2011 7:53pm | Edited 8:05pm
Possible AUDUSD H1 Constrainment to LONG

H1: Constrained by 10EMA; (Parallel 35/50); Clear uptrend
H4: Price above 35, 50 and 10; Uptrend (Not too strong)
D1: Price above 35, 50 and 10; Clear uptrend


H1 has three Constrained Bars (If the current H1 coloses as it is right now)

The triger could be COB of current H1 bar if it closes constrained by 10 EMA (Best if it is a PinBar or Doji). If not this H1 bar, may be the next one.

Looking to the left I can see that Target could be +30p at 1.0870 near the highest H1 bar close in 2011.05.11.

EDIT: Stop could be arround 1.0816.
  • #472
  • Jul 21, 2011 9:16pm Jul 21, 2011 9:16pm
Quoting Haydel
Posible NZDUSD LONG !!

Retrace to H1 35/50 just above Daily S1
Confluence with H4 10
Went LONG around 20 minutes after this call. Open price was
0.8592. I just closed the trade at 0.8612 with +20p
  • #473
  • Jul 21, 2011 11:22pm Jul 21, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting asos101
it would be interesting to watch the asia's attempt to drive new highs in an already stretched EU day. with the Monthly Pivot just above it would be interesting the least.
i took this on demo just to track how it unfold. first entry was at the Monthly pivot and got taken out for -10p the other was a little later went fine for +45p.
not Choros of course but something i lately look into.
the asian session testing the highs on an already stretched day would be rather unlikely to hold. and it happens often.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 21-07-11-EU_asiarunofthehighs.jpg Size: 580 KB
  • #474
  • Jul 21, 2011 11:28pm Jul 21, 2011 11:28pm
anyone else has a huge spike for over 130 pips up in USDCHF right after the close of US session?
i am with FX pr0 by the way
  • #475
  • Jul 21, 2011 11:34pm Jul 21, 2011 11:34pm
Quoting asos101
anyone else has a huge spike for over 130 pips up in USDCHF right after the close of US session?
i am with FX pr0 by the way
Its on my FXPro charts but the IBFX live doesn't have it. Curious though because on the H1 chart on IBFX at that time it doesn't say 21:00 (they are 3 hours behind FXPro) it says 21:03 so somethings up.
  • #476
  • Jul 21, 2011 11:52pm Jul 21, 2011 11:52pm
GU looks like it may be dropping, almost below the M15 10 and starting to go below the H1 10 and there is some room for profit if it drops.
London opens in 10 minutes so i'll have my eye on this.
  • #477
  • Jul 21, 2011 11:54pm Jul 21, 2011 11:54pm
yes assos there is a spike in my broker also. fxgm
  • #478
  • Jul 22, 2011 12:26am Jul 22, 2011 12:26am
Quoting asos101
anyone else has a huge spike for over 130 pips up in USDCHF right after the close of US session?
i am with FX pr0 by the way
FxPro has a 133p spike. Consider yourself lucky, because I also have Alpari UK and the spike is.......5174.2 pips !!!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCspike.jpg Size: 65 KB
  • #479
  • Jul 22, 2011 2:04am Jul 22, 2011 2:04am
Quoting kostas1
FxPro has a 133p spike. Consider yourself lucky, because I also have Alpari UK and the spike is.......5174.2 pips !!!!!!
wow, nice way to fuck stats.
maybe not that big but it is there, 2 minutes after US close.
anyone have any idea what it was?
  • #480
  • Jul 22, 2011 5:07am Jul 22, 2011 5:07am
Would it be ok to post signals that my indicator generates ? I think it has reached a stage where it can follow most rules. It can detect MA touches, in how many bars they happen, how many times price has touched the MA in the current trend, the slope of the MA, the general pair trend. It can detect confluences of round numbers, MAs, pivots, trendlines etc. It can spot cosntrainments. It can also wait for price action or judge signals according to previous price action, since it can detect pinbars, OEBs, hammers etc in lower & higher timeframes. Also it can watch multiple pairs while attached on a single chart.

Basically it is something that lacks the intuition of a human, but also lacks the vices of a human. So far I have built most of the infrastructure but it remains to fine tune the evaluating of signals, ie how many points it gives to a possible trade, the relevant weight of pivots, MAs, etc in the calculation of the strength of a confluence etc. When that is done I will turn it into an EA and backtest it. But for the time being I can say that it can follow most of the Choros rules so it may be interesting.
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