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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #99,001
  • Jul 20, 2011 10:32pm Jul 20, 2011 10:32pm
For those who trade stocks.. Visa broke 80 .. possible retracement trade..
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  • #99,002
  • Jul 20, 2011 11:05pm Jul 20, 2011 11:05pm
Quoting cprao
For those who trade stocks.. Visa broke 80 .. possible retracement trade..
beauty of a level to watch
  • #99,003
  • Jul 21, 2011 1:14am Jul 21, 2011 1:14am
Quoting Khurr@m
well price is very much respecting this South Channel. this time its also RN 1.3300 so i am planning to go short on brack of this Inside Bar with a tight SL and potentially a huge TP. what you guys think of this???????
This looks like a great set up. Don't know how I missed it in my review of daily charts.
It has all of the confluence you mentioned - plus we are sitting at 38% FIB retracement of down move that started on July 4th.
I am hoping for some price action around 1.3300 on lower time frame to trigger a short entry. Even better if PA occurs after London open.
  • #99,004
  • Jul 21, 2011 1:41am Jul 21, 2011 1:41am
I think Gold is a terrible example of how Full Bar Losses wil happen sometimes. It will trigger and immediately reverse. Buffer of any size will not help, one may have 10 pip buffer and price will trigger by 11...

I did not take this trade, but technically it really fits to all the requirements, and there was a tiny room for price to go to (WIPG) - where it obviously did not go.

So full bar losses will happen, and if you have 0.1 - 0.2% R wins, how do you expect to stay in profit over long term? You will need 90% just to breakeven?
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  • #99,005
  • Jul 21, 2011 1:52am Jul 21, 2011 1:52am
Quoting Adilius07
I think Gold is a terrible example of how Full Bar Losses wil happen sometimes. It will trigger and immediately reverse. Buffer of any size will not help, one may have 10 pip buffer and price will trigger by 11...

I did not take this trade, but technically it really fits to all the requirements, and there was a tiny room for price to go to (WIPG) - where it obviously did not go.

So full bar losses will happen, and if you have 0.1 - 0.2% R wins, how do you expect to stay in profit over long term? You will need 90% just to breakeven? ...
There was a reason for not taking this bar and that reason alone kept You from taking a loss. Lower price on gold is only perceived as better buying opportunity. Shorting this market is asking for troubles hence it was an easy pass for me aswell.
  • #99,006
  • Jul 21, 2011 1:53am Jul 21, 2011 1:53am
Quoting Adilius07
I think Gold is a terrible example of how Full Bar Losses wil happen sometimes. It will trigger and immediately reverse. Buffer of any size will not help, one may have 10 pip buffer and price will trigger by 11...

I did not take this trade, but technically it really fits to all the requirements, and there was a tiny room for price to go to (WIPG) - where it obviously did not go.

So full bar losses will happen, and if you have 0.1 - 0.2% R wins, how do you expect to stay in profit over long term? You will need 90% just to breakeven? ...
Hey Adi

I didn't trade this cause of the awesome new US laws

But I still don't think my trade would trigger since the most logical entry would be just under the near rd number of 1580. But that doesn't even matter b/c lets say it did. Why would one take a full bar loss? price had intially retraced up to the minor PPZ, so if that area doesn't hold why take a full bar loss.

I marked it on the 1hr since it was a daily bar you can't see that now but would have seen it at the time.

Again this is my approach to trading because you are right bars DO trigger and you have to have plans both ways.

Best
Mike
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  • #99,007
  • Jul 21, 2011 2:01am Jul 21, 2011 2:01am
Quoting Bemac
Sure. I'm a Tech Trader that Rides all that News Release stuff with thoughts of IF Better then... & If Worse ... Then... But for me... It's a Grid.
It's Math. I don't believe the Big Boys are playing Sentiment. They are playing Building Blocks.
Let me grab that graphic again...
I'll be back
cool, thanx Arnie


jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #99,008
  • Jul 21, 2011 2:07am Jul 21, 2011 2:07am
Quoting Adilius07
I think Gold is a terrible example of how Full Bar Losses wil happen sometimes. It will trigger and immediately reverse. Buffer of any size will not help, one may have 10 pip buffer and price will trigger by 11...

I did not take this trade, but technically it really fits to all the requirements, and there was a tiny room for price to go to (WIPG) - where it obviously did not go.

So full bar losses will happen, and if you have 0.1 - 0.2% R wins, how do you expect to stay in profit over long term? You will need 90% just to breakeven? ...
hey Adi, its too early to tell yet no??? a full bar stop would still be in play...

jon

EDIT: maybe this will lighten your mood??
check out the 15min BEOB. i watched this break in real time so it is not just after the fact...i little better than 1:1 eh!?....
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #99,009
  • Jul 21, 2011 2:19am Jul 21, 2011 2:19am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Adi

I didn't trade this cause of the awesome new US laws

But I still don't think my trade would trigger since the most logical entry would be just under the near rd number of 1580. But that doesn't even matter b/c lets say it did. Why would one take a full bar loss? price had intially retraced up to the minor PPZ, so if that area doesn't hold why take a full bar loss.

I marked it on the 1hr since it was a daily bar you can't see that now but would have seen it at the time.

Again this is my approach to trading because you are right bars...
Hi Mike, yes I see your logic. I was thinking to reduce my stops in similar way, but still if I was in this trade, and even if I had the same view on H1 I would be cought with the current bar as it broke so fast and hard above that minor PPZ. I mean I would wait for bar CLOSE above it. No? If I don't even wait for H1 bar to close above that level and set my physical SL there - that would be really to close to the market and I could be taken out just by noise and the price will continue where it suppose to.

Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hey Adi, its too early to tell yet no??? a full bar stop would still be in play...

jon
Hi Jon, and also exactly for the same reason as you say full bar losses will happen. Because how can we say the setup was a loser when the bar is still in play... so we wait... wait until it physically triggers, and then we think why didn't we gotten out before?
  • #99,010
  • Jul 21, 2011 2:29am Jul 21, 2011 2:29am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hey Adi, its too early to tell yet no??? a full bar stop would still be in play...

jon

EDIT: maybe this will lighten your mood??
check out the 15min BEOB. i watched this break in real time so it is not just after the fact...i little better than 1:1 eh!?....
Jon, I'm sorry for the way I am... but if we imagine that it was in real time and we took it, we would never really have anything even close to 1R, 0.4R is the best here. That is if we do not have a RULE to have a TP at FiXED R% or some fixed S/R away from price.

Realistically this was 0.3-0.4% trade (if all buffer and stop behind bar is considered). My thoughts on the chart.
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  • #99,011
  • Jul 21, 2011 2:34am Jul 21, 2011 2:34am
One more example, just for the sake of example...
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  • #99,012
  • Jul 21, 2011 2:42am Jul 21, 2011 2:42am
Quoting Adilius07
Jon, I'm sorry for the way I am... but if we imagine that it was in real time and we took it, we would never really have anything even close to 1R, 0.4R is the best here. That is if we do not have a RULE to have a TP at FiXED R% or some fixed S/R away from price.

Realistically this was 0.3-0.4% trade (if all buffer and stop behind bar is considered). My thoughts on the chart.
hey Adi, the first short line is the same area as i marked, maybe i could have put it a little lower, but i dont get your second line at all?? to me it has no significance what so ever apart from the TL?? to say most would close there is not correct, and that is not my opinion this time i know so mate.
my thoughts on this where a good possible entry for the break of the lower TL so i would certainly be in after the price you marked as the break of that TL is what i was lookin to achieve. i personally let my trades have a chance to develope, takin action to protect our selves is one thing but strangeling the trades is another. I agree we could have been shaken out on that retrace and test of the TL but for me certainly not before...and when price fell after the retest there would be no reason to get out, i would have been straight out if price broke highr again but in this case it didnt. Remember i watched this in real time so these were my thoughts at the time also.

jus my views


jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #99,013
  • Jul 21, 2011 2:44am Jul 21, 2011 2:44am
Quoting Adilius07
One more example, just for the sake of example...
wow!! imho this is not a place to close the trade, it is a place to watch and be aware of. it is these places that we can hide out stops behind when price breaks through them. i love these levels...


jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #99,014
  • Jul 21, 2011 2:49am Jul 21, 2011 2:49am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hey Adi, the first short line is the same area as i marked, maybe i could have put it a little lower, but i dont get your second line at all?? to me it has no significance what so ever apart from the TL?? to say most would close there is not correct, and that is not my opinion this time i know so mate.
my thoughts on this where a good possible entry for the break of the lower TL so i would certainly be in after the price you marked as the break of that TL is what i was lookin to achieve. i personally let my trades have a chance to...

Jon, my thoughts on the chart.
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  • #99,015
  • Jul 21, 2011 2:49am Jul 21, 2011 2:49am
lol....i also took this small demo trade to show an example in real time....
small pin at top of bearish channel with divergence. 1601 RN confluence

now at BE


not lookin to get out at the lower TL, looking for a break of it...


jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #99,016
  • Jul 21, 2011 2:51am Jul 21, 2011 2:51am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
wow!! imho this is not a place to close the trade, it is a place to watch and be aware of. it is these places that we can hide out stops behind when price breaks through them. i love these levels...


jon
Hmm why not, those 2 swing highs are dangerous really. Many methods (and here in J16 too) look to place a touch trade on those levels....
  • #99,017
  • Jul 21, 2011 2:55am Jul 21, 2011 2:55am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
lol....i also took this small demo trade to show an example in real time....
small pin at top of bearish channel with divergence. 1601 RN confluence

now at BE


not lookin to get out at the lower TL, looking for a break of it...


jon
please don't take me wrong, but with live trade imho you would have exited there... if of course you don't have some strict rules for holding a trade and view RR as meaningless....
  • #99,018
  • Jul 21, 2011 3:00am Jul 21, 2011 3:00am
Quoting Adilius07
Jon, my thoughts on the chart.
the first box i had marked but sorry mate the second means nothing to me, maybe im missing something??

Quote
Hmm why not, those 2 swing highs are dangerous really. Many methods (and here in J16 too) look to place a touch trade on those levels....

i agree and trading into them is dangerous, but assuming we took the trade(i wouldnt have so not the best eg.) i personally would have taken some kind of action at that level but not closed the trade.

half closed on the gold trade due to reaction to that level i marked...about an RR on that half of 2:1, just leaving the other half to see how it plays out. this is becoming a great conversation.


jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #99,019
  • Jul 21, 2011 3:04am Jul 21, 2011 3:04am
Quoting Adilius07
please don't take me wrong, but with live trade imho you would have exited there... if of course you don't have some strict rules for holding a trade and view RR as meaningless....
i dont take you wrong mate i love these exchanges.
i DO trade live Adi as you know (though not gold) and this IS how i play them. im not assuming here im sharing my experience. RR is not meaningless to me but rather i take seriously the FTA and the space we have to it. i dont think at all in terms of RR


jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #99,020
  • Jul 21, 2011 3:16am Jul 21, 2011 3:16am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
the first box i had marked but sorry mate the second means nothing to me, maybe im missing something??

jon
Strange, it is objectively more obvious than the first one.
Plus valid TL too...
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