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Flag trading the trend

  • #4,901
  • Jul 18, 2011 7:48am Jul 18, 2011 7:48am
Quoting dan89
Thanks for the reply. Also, just wondering why you choose the 4080 area as the last swing/lower high and not the later swing high swing at 4070 ?

Dan
++++++++++++++
Hi Dan. Zoom out. We are looking for the 15m "Macro Trend" change in direction.
  • #4,902
  • Jul 18, 2011 8:06am Jul 18, 2011 8:06am
Hope no one took this trade. Price did remain above 10, however consolidation and low momentum made this a trade to avoid.

Now the market is responding to US long term bond sales being only 1/2 of what was forecast. Overall, US bonds are the safest buy compared to European.
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  • #4,903
  • Jul 18, 2011 9:15am Jul 18, 2011 9:15am
Minute :55 SUB on 2nd set up after return to trend.

Last swing was 13 pips.
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  • #4,904
  • Jul 18, 2011 10:10am Jul 18, 2011 10:10am
Nice one Diamond....
i took the 10.30 sub for a win,and didnt take the one you posted because of "chopiness" around the trend line
the waiting paid off

can we say now the 1.4095 is the new Higher Low on the 15 min tf?
  • #4,905
  • Jul 18, 2011 10:37am Jul 18, 2011 10:37am
nice trading guys i had another set back grrrrrrrrrr ac went outy he needed to shut off power nice 2 setups today darryls and specs now that i am feeling better and ac works again (boiling down here) i will be joining you in putting on these trades lots of money not made in last 2 weeks but the bottom line is this works!!! for those that did not understand darryls trade it goes like this we were looking to go short based on 15 minute chart price was trending up on 1 minute chart then price crossed the sma and gave and signal because cci also crossed -50 but we dont know if price will go higher so we let the signal go and wait for another pullback which it did (when it does that it forms a 123) then you look for sub which you can see on darryls chart and bingo a win specs was easier it trended down and pulled back and a sub formed and bingo another win
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  • #4,906
  • Jul 18, 2011 10:38am Jul 18, 2011 10:38am
missed this 123 and the flagger pointed out by diamond. hopefully someone caught them.
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  • #4,907
  • Jul 18, 2011 10:46am Jul 18, 2011 10:46am
Quoting speculant
Nice one Diamond....
i took the 10.30 sub for a win,and didnt take the one you posted because of "chopiness" around the trend line
the waiting paid off

can we say now the 1.4095 is the new Higher Low on the 15 min tf?
+++++++++++++

Not sure why you saw chopiness at the trade I took. On the 1st Set Up, which was a return to the trend, (9:47 ET) price gave a 123. Then came straight through the 10. Price remained well below the 10, then shot up to close above the 10, and then right back below the 10. Where was the "Chopiness"?

I didn't take the 10:30 ET trade because for 9 candles prior to SUB, price was in an 8 pip consolidation range. 6 of those candles were straddling the 10. Another reason I passed on this trade is price had just dropped 60 pips without a decent PB.

I'm glad you got a win here. There will be wins that don't qualify according to the rules that I choose to follow. Can the rules change over time? Of course. I'm definitely interested in your response because I need all the help I can get.
Thanks,
Darryl
  • #4,908
  • Jul 18, 2011 10:56am Jul 18, 2011 10:56am
darryl on specs trade (posted his chart a couple of posts ago) it was just a pullback flag trade super pullback yes price came down 60 and pulledback 20 33% pullback there was nothing wrong with that one remember the FLAG!!!! also notice the 123 going back into the trend
  • #4,909
  • Jul 18, 2011 11:07am Jul 18, 2011 11:07am
Quoting Divergence
darryl on specs trade (posted his chart a couple of posts ago) it was just a pullback flag trade super pullback yes price came down 60 and pulledback 20 33% pullback there was nothing wrong with that one remember the FLAG!!!!
++++++++++++++

Understood. Thanks for the help. I now recall the PB general rules about the PB being at least to a fib #, which this was close.

I've gotten burned on too many trades that looked like consolidation was going on. So I am really picky when I see tight price ranges for more than 4 or 5 candles in a row.
Signed,
The Tight Wad...
  • #4,910
  • Edited Jul 19, 2011 1:20am Jul 18, 2011 11:45am | Edited Jul 19, 2011 1:20am
hi all
i want to kick myself now after i saw this...i was going to get in the first /Diamond's/trade if i have done this simple check...

http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/2756/eurr123.png
for whom does not know harmonics, price reverses at D point for a valid setup like it did...
there were no candle close above the fib lvl

the candle count in each leg /ab and cd/is almost the same-all signs for a valid setup
  • #4,911
  • Jul 19, 2011 10:32am Jul 19, 2011 10:32am
Hi Divergence,

Since starting the one minute charts I have had a hard time stringing more then two winning trades together.
When I first started the 1 min. I was jumping into trades to quickly and to often and then I started over analyzing and stopped getting in on any trades at all.
I was just gaining confidence with my trading on the 5 min charts and now I feel like I am second guessing myself on every trade.

Would you recap how you seen today’s trading session play out and advise on what trades you might have jumped on, in hope that we can gain more understanding on your 1 min strategy and 1 min price action.
  • #4,912
  • Jul 19, 2011 10:43am Jul 19, 2011 10:43am
Quoting thefallguy
Hi Divergence,

Since starting the one minute charts I have had a hard time stringing more then two winning trades together.
When I first started the 1 min. I was jumping into trades to quickly and to often and then I started over analyzing and stopped getting in on any trades at all.
I was just gaining confidence with my trading on the 5 min charts and now I feel like I am second guessing myself on every trade.

[font=Arial]Would you recap how you seen today’s trading...
++++++++++++++++
I took 2 good trades today. Will post later. 1st @ 54 minutes after NY open and 2nd @ 82 minutes after NY open.

Have you looked at most recent videos? http://www.vimeo.com/diamonddbw/videos

I go over several bad set ups. This is critical to understand when NOT to get in. That is what costs money.
Darryl
  • #4,913
  • Jul 19, 2011 10:57am Jul 19, 2011 10:57am
Hey Darryl, I did watch some of your videos last night. I will try to watch them again tonight (without the kids running around)!

I think one of the biggest issue’s I have found is determining when to jump in, what exactly constitutes a pullback on a 1 min.
I know you where talking about reaching fib lines on a pullback a few post back. Should we be going on a feeling or should we be looking at hard numbers like fib lines or maybe a minimum number of pips?

It just seemed a little clearer on the 5 min chart.
  • #4,914
  • Jul 19, 2011 11:31am Jul 19, 2011 11:31am
Quoting thefallguy
Hey Darryl, I did watch some of your videos last night. I will try to watch them again tonight (without the kids running around)!

I think one of the biggest issue’s I have found is determining when to jump in, what exactly constitutes a pullback on a 1 min.
I know you where talking about reaching fib lines on a pullback a few post back. Should we be going on a feeling or should we be looking at hard numbers like fib lines or maybe a minimum number of pips?

[font=Arial]It just seemed a little...
++++++++++++++++
Fibs, are not a technical part of the Flag trade. Convergence is always something to know about because if you can see it so can thousands of others around the world.

The only hard numbers are:
1. CCI +or- 50
2. Touching or No more than 2.4 pips beyond the 10 sma
3. Stop loss no more than 15 pips away from entry, once you have added the spread.
4. Price must be trending. Staying above or below the 10 sma. (See Video)
5. Do not take 1st set up when price has been going against the trend.
6. Do not take set ups coming directly out of price consolidation.
7. Do not trade before, during or immediately after the news.
8. Trade only the first 3 hours of the FF/London, or NY sessions.

Always be keenly aware of s/r levels, in particular recent s/r levels that have alot of activity around them.

The rules will keep you out of the bad set ups. That is key.
  • #4,915
  • Jul 19, 2011 3:59pm Jul 19, 2011 3:59pm
Quoting diamonddbw
++++++++++++++++
I took 2 good trades today. Will post later. 1st @ 54 minutes after NY open and 2nd @ 82 minutes after NY open.

Have you looked at most recent videos? http://www.vimeo.com/diamonddbw/videos

I go over several bad set ups. This is critical to understand when NOT to get in. That is what costs money.
Darryl

I have not been able to watch any videos. What could be the problem. I am able to view all the videos available but when I click on any one video to watch, I am unable to see the actual video in play.

Your help is solicited
  • #4,916
  • Jul 19, 2011 7:43pm Jul 19, 2011 7:43pm
Quoting kkashni
I have not been able to watch any videos. What could be the problem. I am able to view all the videos available but when I click on any one video to watch, I am unable to see the actual video in play.

Your help is solicited
If you are using firefox, then try another browser, as some vimeo videos do not play in some versions of firefoxes flash plugin.
  • #4,917
  • Jul 20, 2011 3:19am Jul 20, 2011 3:19am
42 minutes after London open, I saw this SUB preceded by two 123's.

This trade took 22 minutes, longer than most, but the set up was there.
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  • #4,918
  • Jul 20, 2011 3:26am Jul 20, 2011 3:26am
http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/4167/2020115.th.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
20 minutes of shame and profit in your pocket. I like that.

Happy Trading
  • #4,919
  • Jul 20, 2011 3:30am Jul 20, 2011 3:30am
Quoting diamonddbw
42 minutes after London open, I saw this SUB preceded by two 123's.

This trade took 22 minutes, longer than most, but the set up was there.
While gone out for lunch, 123 5 minut chart Long missed this trigger in 6:05 in GMT. Signal cool.

Happy Trading
  • #4,920
  • Jul 20, 2011 3:55am Jul 20, 2011 3:55am
Quoting Daytrader_UA
While gone out for lunch, 123 5 minut chart Long missed this trigger in 6:05 in GMT. Signal cool.

Happy Trading
+++++++++++++++++
I haven't been looking at the 5m, but it is still valid. It's just that now I'm hooked on the 1m.

I'm normally not up now. 4am here. But woke up and got the urge to check the charts, and voilà, free money!
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