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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #98,561
  • Jul 15, 2011 12:20am Jul 15, 2011 12:20am
Quoting almann400
mike~ did you get out around 128 before getting stoped out...i wish i could hold a trade lilke that without getting anxious first i have a tendency to get out early nice trade...
Hey Al

Missed my take profit at 128.19 by 1 pip on the spike up.

Here is where i got stopped out

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post4781908

best
Mike
  • #98,562
  • Jul 15, 2011 12:23am Jul 15, 2011 12:23am
Quoting halfstep
Hi, I have been having problems with breakout trades for awhile now, I see good opportunties but don't know how to trade it.

currently there is a good opportunity I see brewing up on AUDUSD, how would you guys play the trade?

I have listed out my thought process and question on the picture below please click on it to get a closer view.

mike? jaroo? snowly? gungriffin? the list goes on and on, but so far I only remember these names, feel free guys
Looks to me like you already know the answer to your own question. You said exactly what most of the seniors would probably say in your chart, "or do most of you guys wait for price to break above & come back to the green line and test it as support". In my preference I really only like to trade PA. This would apply to either a buy or a sell of the are that you have shown. It would need to be some good PA though. I would also classify the 1.0800 area as simply a round number and not a BRN. I will go in on a break trade, but it has to be one hell of an area of support or resistance and I don't see this as such. Eventually I will hone in my skills to be able to recognize smaller areas of S/R, but for now they need to be obvious. That is just my $.02
  • #98,563
  • Jul 15, 2011 12:26am Jul 15, 2011 12:26am
mike~ oh wow i hate when i come within a pip or two only for it to go the other way that is when i wish i was staring at the charts haha....if you do not mind me asking why was your tp at 12819
  • #98,564
  • Jul 15, 2011 12:51am Jul 15, 2011 12:51am
Quoting gungriffin
Ha ha Adilius. You double posting now to get to 3000 posts
wow! I really don't know how did this happen! I was so excited to see the statement that I just clicked, clicked... you know... I will try to delete one now.
  • #98,565
  • Jul 15, 2011 12:52am Jul 15, 2011 12:52am
Quoting gungriffin
While I would out and out agree with you if this were a random thread, this is not a random thread. It is the J16 method and IT IS PROFITABLE.

If the answer is so simple, don't make bad/stupid/miscelanious trades, then why are people having trouble grasping at this.
The problem here is that there are a number of assumptions that go into that simple statement. We inherently assume two things:

Statement: this method is profitable when applied correctly
Assumptions: there is a single method and a 'correct' application thereof

I think that is more where the problem lies. Not that people are all taking crap trades (obviously, some people are - and you know who you are, so stop it) but that there is alot of subjectivity in the overall gameplan.

If I tried to trade like Mike, or like Jim, or like Jaroo... well, I'd probably drain my account in short order. And I daresay that if Jim tried to trade it like I do, or if Mike tried to run the same plays that Jaroo does, they would see suboptimal results.

What you have here isnt really a methodology, per se. Not as in a 'when 365ema crosses the 42 SMA under the sign of the scorpion, sell!'. It's very subjective. I see it more as a framework - identify locations, examine bars in those locations, take appropriate action where the 'good bars in good places' criterion is met, and then manage your trade with regard to s/r and PPZ.

There is alot that can go wrong in there. You could pick out poor locations, miss good locations, trade subpar bars, fill your chart with meaningless levels and then make decisions based on them, mismanage your trades to hell and back, get terrible entry or exit prices, etc. And that's like a drop in the ocean. But all those can be fixed with practice and study (like, in 6 months worth of demo trading, for instance - heard someone recommend that one time...smart guy! ).

You get those things down - location, trigger, entry, exit - then you will make money... even if you are as mentally stable as Charlie Sheen in a spa bath full of coke.

And if you *dont* have those down, then you need to learn them. And definitely dont need to be saying junk like 'well, I lost again, so therefore I am going to add some kind of Bollinger Band touchpoint, put twelve more EMAs on my chart and then combine that all with some halfassed economic analysis I learned on Babypips even though I dont have a clue what I am talking about'. Because that's just silly.

Quoting gungriffin
I could see people who are new to trading having issues, but that does not explain the people who have persisted with it for a while. Most of the people these posts are directed what I have said to have at least a few hundred to a few thousand posts. They have been here for a while. What is it that they aren't grasping?
I see two options; they either arent comprehending the basic principles, or they applying them correctly. Either way, this isnt supercomplex stuff. If you dont get the basics in 'a while', maybe they need to decide to either apply yourself or move on.

I could spend thousands of hours reading a ballet forum. I could watch ballet videos, I could read ballet books. At the end of the day though, either
a) I have some rare innate talent and it just clicks
b) I dont have that talent but I take that knowledge and implement it with structured learning and practice, or
c) I just accept that I suck at dancing and I am either not willing or not able to change that.

And that's the same with trading. People have this idea that it should be some magic thing where you press a few buttons and the internet throws money at you. if it was that easy and anyone could do it... well, everyone would be doing it. But it isnt the late 90s anymore.

That leaves aside a fundamental issue that affects a lot of people - you need sufficient capital to trade. Just because you can open an account with a hundred bucks doesn't mean you should. I'd wager than most of the people taking D class trades are doing it because they are hugely undercapitalised and trying to force action. Doesn't work like that.

Quoting gungriffin
That having been said, THERE IS NO REPLACEMENT FOR PRACTICE!!!!!!!
Amen.

Quoting gungriffin
I have heard that to master a craft/trade takes about 10,000 hours. I could easily see this. I have come a great distance from where I started, but still have multiples of what I have learned so far before I would start to consider myself a master of trading.
The problem with that oft-quoted statistic is that few of the people who throw it out have actually read and understood Gladwell's point. Watching MTV for 10,000 hours wont make me an awesome musician (or, more accurately, it wont make me Paris Hilton or some Jersey Shore guido. Do they even play music anymore?). Browsing an internet forum and glancing at charts for the same wont make me a trader. It's how you train that matters.

Quoting gungriffin
Oh and thanks for tossing out that post joelcf. I would be telling a lie if I said that I did not take offense when I first read it. I had to read it about 10 times over several hours in order to take in what you are saying.
lol, nothing I write is worthy of hours of contemplation

And definitely no offense intended at all - what you are seeing is my sunny disposition and winning personality colliding
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #98,566
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:03am Jul 15, 2011 1:03am
Quoting gungriffin
If I understand this correctly you are saying that the key is to be picky and only wait for the best opportunities. By the boss udstairs do you mean our minds?

If both of these items are what you were saying then yes I am onboard 100%. I could not agree more. I would change your post to something that more closely resembles this:
No, again this not what I meant
I really don't think it is possible to make 100K out of 3K, well ok maybe "possible" but in how many years? We still need some years to enjoy the money before we pass away no?

But I believe if one can trade consistently he definetly can make 50% per year, year after year.. So by the boss upstairs I mean a real person, i.e. investor who is willing to give you the money you can work with.

Don't agree that making 50K from 100K is much easier and QUICKER than making 100K from 3K? If one can trade successfully, I believe he must look for external funding/sponsorship - if the goal is to make money and not just trade because it's fun.

So I believe that in order to make money we need external sponsorship, like with any other business project (construction, production etc).

First of all of course is a working method and a proven trading record
  • #98,567
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:09am Jul 15, 2011 1:09am
Quoting joelcf
POST FLOOD!

Maybe the solution is to not take shitty trades. If you know they suck and you take them anyways... well, the problem isnt with your risk %.
Hi Joel, totally agree. However, sometimes is very difficult to say if a trade is shitty or a triple A one before we see the outcome. Like for example EURUSD PB (fxpro feed) at the moment. Is it a shitty one or classic J16 Pinbar on the retest of the triangle? What would you say?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1310664515
  • #98,568
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:11am Jul 15, 2011 1:11am
Quoting Pinbar
yeah, its great.

We have to work on why we can't do that.
Funny, recently I feel like I am banging my head on the wall.
Maybe I need to bang a little harder.

Have a day off today so, I am going to spend it trading EU from 1970 to today on this trade simulator on the daily chart, with the same account size as my live account, and same lot size as I would trade live.
Only the Crem del la creme in trades.
Same here. Something has to be changed/done. But what...
  • #98,569
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:12am Jul 15, 2011 1:12am
Quoting Adilius07
But I believe if one can trade consistently he definetly can make 50% per year, year after year.. So by the boss upstairs I mean a real person, i.e. investor who is willing to give you the money you can work with.
lol. No.

By that logic, I should be able to retire with over $500bn. And, assuming I dont spend too much or kill myself driving my rocketcar, I should be able to leave my kids over $100,000,000,000,000,000 (that's a hundred quadrillion) when I die.

But only if I apply myself.

... your expectations are wildly unrealistic.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #98,570
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:16am Jul 15, 2011 1:16am
Quoting Adilius07
Hi Joel, totally agree. However, sometimes is very difficult to say if a trade is shitty or a triple A one before we see the outcome. Like for example EURUSD PB (fxpro feed) at the moment. Is it a shitty one or classic J16 Pinbar on the retest of the triangle? What would you say?
It's at a nothing location, headed straight into obvious support, your trendline is meaningless, its clearly just a retracement on the previous bullish bar and its in a sideways market. I havent even bothered looking at what the pair is.

That's an easier pass than a fat girl at a salad bar.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #98,571
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:25am Jul 15, 2011 1:25am
Quoting Adilius07
Same here. Something has to be changed/done. But what...

Yeah, I hear you.

I think the problem with me personally is a lack of application, as Joel just mentioned. I wait for the A+ setups and either I don't get the PA or at least there PA is not appropriate. For example on this feed, the close or open of a PB may not be within the eye. I will stay out of this setup, then the setup takes off, next time I see the less than perfect setup, I take it, of course it is going to be a winner just like the one I missed.
It isn't a winner, I accept the loss, or I think I accept the loss. Next time I see a perfect setup, my mind is like, Hey there has got to be something wrong with this setup. There isn't anything wrong with it, apart from it takes off without me aboard.

And so and so.

I think the answer is demo more just like we would trade the live account.


EDIT: First trade. 40 pip stop 50 pip TP. Right to the pip.
Hardly Creme De La Creme but, I decided to work on the less than perfect setups at the same time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,572
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:34am Jul 15, 2011 1:34am
Quoting joelcf
lol. No.

By that logic, I should be able to retire with over $500bn. And, assuming I dont spend too much or kill myself driving my rocketcar, I should be able to leave my kids over $100,000,000,000,000,000 (that's a hundred quadrillion) when I die.

But only if I apply myself.

... your expectations are wildly unrealistic.
So following your logic... for you is very realistic to make 100K out of 3K is just takes "longass time" but wildly unrealistic to make 50K out of 100K?

Eh, ok
  • #98,573
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:36am Jul 15, 2011 1:36am
Quoting Adilius07
So following your logic... for you is very realistic to make 100K out of 3K is just takes "longass time" but wildly unrealistic to make 50K out of 100K?

Eh, ok
It could also possibly be easier to lose half of 50K much quicker.

I think the compounding is the thing, we should not try and make 5% on one trade.
But also I agree, this is a double edged sword, as J16 says many times, "one reason people blow up their accounts is over trading a small account", trying to milk more out of the cow than is in its udders. Trying for 200 pips on a trade that can only give us 30.
I can also now understand that j16 is trading a serious account and he is quite happy to take 30 pips profit and move to BE.
  • #98,574
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:42am Jul 15, 2011 1:42am
Quoting joelcf
It's at a nothing location, headed straight into obvious support, your trendline is meaningless, its clearly just a retracement on the previous bullish bar and its in a sideways market. I havent even bothered looking at what the pair is.

That's an easier pass than a fat girl at a salad bar.
Ha ha great example for me of how perception is usually different for different people. Think you may have mentioned that one in a previous post . Will just toss this up here. I FULLY recognize that this is not an A+ trade and as such it will not be treated as such. I would give it a B+. Key as I see it on this one is my plan THAT I WILL STICK TO. This is not just something that is going to be on a hope and a prayer that I will hope that maybe it will go my way. What turned me on was some of the confluence that I saw concentrated at one particuar area. Also I went in on the retrace in an effort to reduce my risk. This was a smaller position that what I would trade on a solid A+ trade.

____________________________________________________

This is an exact copy of what I put up in my journal in the PF:
____________________________________________________

EURUSD bearish pinbar:

Likes:
-decent looking pin with a nice close
-playing off of the 1.42RN and also the bottom TL of the former wedge
-also has the gap that closed, but may serve as resistance
-right off of a horizontal TL that I have had on the chart for a month and has held fairly well.
-at the 50% retrace area from the last run down (not as important though, just nice to see)

Not so hot:
-Only at a minor swing high
-would have like to see some divergence

http://www.james16group.us/forums/at...709959&thumb=1

I am in on the retrace.
Entry at 1.4290
SL set at 1.4360
TP for the moment is set to 1.4025

SL will be moved once the move lower is shown.
  • #98,575
  • Edited 1:55am Jul 15, 2011 1:44am | Edited 1:55am
Quoting Adilius07
So following your logic... for you is very realistic to make 100K out of 3K is just takes "longass time" but wildly unrealistic to make 50K out of 100K?

Eh, ok
No, I think you misread what I said.

It's entirely realistic to go from 3k->100k. If you were patient enough and used proper risk management. You arent coming up against any kind of ridiculous limits (like all the available money in the entire world, for instance). Just dont expect to do it quickly.

It's just a mostly pointless endeavour, because even trading @5%, it's seventy something trades (couldnt be bothered working it out), so throwing in losers you are talking about a hundred trades, minimum. Had you just put an extra couple of thousand in and started with a more realistic capital base like 10k, you have reduced the number of trades you need by at least a third.

I never said it is unrealistic to turn 50k into 100k. I said it was unrealistic to think you can make 50% annual returns consistently - 'year in, year out'. If you find someone who does, please point them my way and I will (literally) throw fistfuls of cash at them until they come work for me. And after a few years, I'll have my rocketcar made of solid platinum.

Quoting gungriffin
Ha ha great example for me of how perception is usually different for different people. Think you may have mentioned that one in a previous post ..
Damnit. I am a bit rusty

An easier pass than a date with Lorena Bobbitt.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #98,576
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:56am Jul 15, 2011 1:56am
Quoting Adilius07
...However, sometimes is very difficult to say if a trade is shitty or a triple A one before we see the outcome. Like for example EURUSD PB (fxpro feed) at the moment. Is it a shitty one or classic J16 Pinbar on the retest of the triangle? ...
again, experience helps.
if u are familiar with a setup, have seen/traded it many times, u have a good idea of the likely outcome.
if u lack experience, then of course, u have no clue.

i'll give u an analogy
u can compare your concern above to a lady:
at first glance, can u tell if a lady is beautiful or not? (based on your preferences) Yes, easily. (A+ setup or not)
but u cannot tell from first glance, or sometimes even a few minutes/hours/days of conversations/meetings/dates/years of living together*, if that lady burps loudly, laughs like a man, loves adventures, cooks well, can lift heavier weights than u, has met/have a crush on David Beckham, is bisexual , has shoplifted before, etc (expectations/outcome)

[*this is just a general analogy... of course there are ways to discover the above 'expectations/outcome' in much shorter periods..... again experience comes in handy]
  • #98,577
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:56am Jul 15, 2011 1:56am
Quoting Pinbar
Yeah, I hear you.

I think the problem with me personally is a lack of application, as Joel just mentioned. I wait for the A+ setups and either I don't get the PA or at least there PA is not appropriate. For example on this feed, the close or open of a PB may not be within the eye. I will stay out of this setup, then the setup takes off, next time I see the less than perfect setup, I take it, of course it is going to be a winner just like the one I missed.
It isn't a winner, I accept the loss, or I think I accept the loss. Next time I see a perfect...
Yes. Same problem all the time. You know I was talking a lot with different traders in this and other threads. (in PM's).

A lot of them mention the need for bigger R. I was thinking about this. If RR is really meaningless and could be as low as 0.2% or whatever, then 90% win rate is not just desirable it is a nessecity to make a profit over time. (or just to be above BE at least). If we have like 70% or so (which I consistently have) we will still lose. So. That's where this uncertainty comes from I look at the trade and I have a lot of doubt for is it a A+ or not, should I take it or not. And each time there is something new, some little detail that if pay attention I should skip a setup. But ok next time I see A+ (in my opinion) I take it , of course there will an FTA very soon, I exit with my 0.2% wow nice... but some day I will enter and it will immidiately reverse on me erasing my 5 previous wins (or more).

So I am more and more towards just making RR positive. Not necessarily forgeting about WIPG ( like James says in this is critical we can move to BE at FTA) and then just wait, hope and pray for 5R or something alike. That will 'allow" to sometimes take crappy trades (trade does not look crappy before the outcome is seen, we are not idiots, and have 1 year experience in this thread, if we see a setup at least it is OK, imho).

Pinbar, we both were here for more than a year ( you were in the PF too or still are). And IT IS NOT WORKING!!! I have never saw any trader as dedicated as yourself (beside myself of course, lol). So maybe we have to accept that WIPG, 90%, A+++ is not working for some reason.... and apply different strategies...

Just my 2 cents. I will prorably do as above. I have a steady falling equity curve, MUCH WORSE than when I started to trade 5 years ago with my moving averages. At least back then I had some profitable months in a row...now I don't.

J16 Method is Fine, it is the best. But MY APPROACH to it is definetely not right. 90% is not doable for me. Period. Need something other than that.

  • #98,578
  • Jul 15, 2011 1:58am Jul 15, 2011 1:58am
Quoting joelcf
No, I think you misread what I said.

It's entirely realistic to go from 3k->100k. If you were patient enough and used proper risk management. You arent coming up against any kind of ridiculous limits (like all the available money in the entire world, for instance). Just dont expect to do it quickly.

It's just a mostly pointless endeavour, because even trading @5%, it's seventy something trades (couldnt be bothered working it out), so throwing in losers you are talking about a hundred trades, minimum. Had you just put an extra couple of thousand...
Well maybe you right I don't know.
Is it ok to ask...How much did you make last year in %?
  • #98,579
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:01am Jul 15, 2011 2:01am
Quoting supremeChaos
again, experience helps.
if u are familiar with a setup, have seen/traded it many times, u have a good idea of the likely outcome.
if u lack experience, then of course, u have no clue.

i'll give u an analogy
u can compare your concern above to a lady:
at first glance, can u tell if a lady is beautiful or not? (based on your preferences) Yes, easily. (A+ setup or not)
but u cannot tell from first glance, or sometimes even a few minutes/hours/days of conversations/meetings/dates/years of living together*, if that lady...

In general I agree, but for each new setup there are new and very different variables. Pros and Cons, always, and you really don't know which will win until you are in a trade...
  • #98,580
  • Jul 15, 2011 2:07am Jul 15, 2011 2:07am
Quoting Adilius07
Well maybe you right I don't know.
Is it ok to ask...How much did you make last year in %?
Sure. On my j16 stuff, a touch over 26% over the last financial year.

But I also only traded lightly for the first two quarters, then very lightly for the next Q, then not at all for the last Q. So I kinda got lucky that I had a few big runners and seemed to line up my honeymoon with a 3 month period of chop and slop that would have probably been flat or worse.

Overall, am I happy with it? Sure. Except for one completely retarded move. But we wont talk about that. It's not stellar performance, but I also didnt really put much time into it. Which is how I really evaluate my results. On a $/hr basis, its decent.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
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