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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #98,441
  • Jul 14, 2011 7:52am Jul 14, 2011 7:52am
Quoting Adilius07
What is your current win rate?
78%.. Which is good, but I do need to work on keeping the winners running..
  • #98,442
  • Jul 14, 2011 7:58am Jul 14, 2011 7:58am
Quoting Adilius07
Hi SG, yes of course only for this same reason I keep my positions low. I did the same calculations and 2% per trade theoretically "allows" me to lose 10-15 times in a row and I could still make it back... there is a lot of info about this in this thread.

But, IF we are talking 90% and more.... we don't need to take this into account. 1 trade per month 9 months out of 10 are winners (2 months reserved for vacation).

Also 90% could be 90 months out of 100 months (7.5 years out of 8.3 years) and here theoretically we can have those 10 losing...
I don't win over 90% of all the trades I take - even the more picky long term trades I do.

When I first started off, I had $50 in an account which I wanted to test to see how many trades I could win without losing the whole account. I only bet $0.5 at a time. This one little task taught me a thing or two about currency trading. I suggest it might teach a few people here about the level of risk they should be considering.

It would be pure genius to have a couple of seniors call ten A+ trades before they happen in real time.

I (for one) would be most impressed by such an action. Most impressed and humbled......

KR
  • #98,443
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:00am Jul 14, 2011 8:00am
Quoting Sgrb1
I can see this from Adi's point of view for sure, when there is 'meaningful' money on the line, one is probably likely to be more cautious with their investments. But you raise a good point here SC and is something to think about.. I guess the sensible alternative would be to simply increase the account size (from an external source) and keep the same %/trade, if it were a possibility..

SG
Also, you may find it interesting. What if you have 100K reserved for trading and you still want to trade 1% (because you win overall but not yet 90%).

I would do this, I will not put 100K into the account so I can only risk 1K per trade. That is making 99000 dead! Not smart! I would simply open Saving Account in the same currency and deposit half of the money there. That will give me addition % income on this same money! Here, where I live we have it 8% per year. So even if I made ZERO trades in my trading account for some reason I still made 4% on the initial 100K. Better than nothing.

That is what I already started to do, I will not deposit money into the Oanada anymore, I will do so into my Savings Account and after each such deposit I will calculate my position size AS IF those money were comepletely in Oanda. ( also I save on bank wire from Asia to USA). After some time I will have to transfer some money into Oanda (for margin requirements etc, but that is only if I will make my fx account grow).

Just my 2 cents, hope someone could find this uselful.
  • #98,444
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:01am Jul 14, 2011 8:01am
Quoting Sgrb1
78%.. Which is good, but I do need to work on keeping the winners running..
Very nice! Over how many trades this is?
  • #98,445
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:03am Jul 14, 2011 8:03am
Quoting Knight Rider
I don't win over 90% of all the trades I take - even the more picky long term trades I do.

When I first started off, I had $50 in an account which I wanted to test to see how many trades I could win without losing the whole account. I only bet $0.5 at a time. This one little task taught me a thing or two about currency trading. I suggest it might teach a few people here about the level of risk they should be considering.

It would be pure genius to have a couple of seniors call ten A+ trades before they happen in real time.

I (for one) would...
Hi KR, Seniors do call trades before they happen, yes very rarely but they do I personally saw Mike done that a few times. Just stick around and you will see
  • #98,446
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:05am Jul 14, 2011 8:05am
Quoting Sgrb1
I can see this from Adi's point of view for sure, when there is 'meaningful' money on the line, one is probably likely to be more cautious with their investments.
....
i can see your viewpoint...

it sounds logical.
but i think that is just the preliminary perception. that is, once u are doing it, u will behave differently (act irrationally).
caution wont help u more than experience can.

Quote
I guess the sensible alternative would be to simply increase the account size (from an external source) and keep the same %/trade, if it were a possibility..
i think a better way is to grow your account with increasing experience-profitability-consistency, then increase position size (&/or %risk) accordingly.
IMHO, increasing account size thru external source (external funds, u mean?) is inferior but may help once u are consistent.

Quoting Sgrb1
78%.. Which is good, but I do need to work on keeping the winners running..
hold on to the winners, u mean?
try trading with multiple entries, then multiple exits.
  • #98,447
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:08am Jul 14, 2011 8:08am
Quoting Adilius07
Also, you may find it interesting. What if you have 100K reserved for trading and you still want to trade 1% (because you win overall but not yet 90%).

I would do this, I will not put 100K into the account so I can only risk 1K per trade. That is making 99000 dead! Not smart! I would simply open Saving Account in the same currency and deposit half of the money there. That will give me addition % income on this same money! Here, where I live we have it 8% per year. So even if I made ZERO trades in my trading account for some reason I still made...

8% per year on a saving account. Where is that, i'm coming
  • #98,448
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:13am Jul 14, 2011 8:13am
Quoting Adilius07
Very nice! Over how many trades this is?
Just over 30 (which includes gap trades), I've only started keeping records within the last 6 - 9 months
  • #98,449
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:15am Jul 14, 2011 8:15am
Quoting huskyboy
8% per year on a saving account. Where is that, i'm coming
yeah, it's high. any country got a higher one?
hey Adi, i hope u are not referring to a type of savings account that's only available for well off people like u
  • #98,450
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:17am Jul 14, 2011 8:17am
Quoting Adilius07
Also .... I would do this, I will not put 100K into the account so I can only risk 1K per trade. That is making 99000 dead! Not smart! I would simply open Saving Account in the same currency and deposit half of the money there. That will give me addition % income on this same money! Here, where I live we have it 8% per year. So even if I made ZERO trades in my trading account for some reason I still made 4% on the initial 100K. Better than nothing ....
Yes, this is a very good idea. I know a home trader that trades the sort of size you mention here, that does the same thing..
  • #98,451
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:24am Jul 14, 2011 8:24am
Quoting Adilius07
Hi KR, Seniors do call trades before they happen, yes very rarely but they do I personally saw Mike done that a few times. Just stick around and you will see
Okay, I will stick around for the time being. I want to believe. I really do.

Incidentally, Mike has gained my respect in a number of comments he has made recently - including his thoughts on stop losses. I like his thinking and his clarity of thought. He is quite a likeable chap really. I do exactly the same with my stop losses (hard lessons learnt in the past). I try to cut losses as short as possible, which is why; when I do picky trades, they are all "runners".

If somebody can call ten A+ trades (I don't care how long this takes) in a row and in real time with only one bad call, then I will be impressed.

When I tried this myself, I wanted to prove I could call 100 trades in a row correctly and I don't mind telling some of you that I got past ten in a row.

The only thing I will share with you guys (at the moment) is that I have never quit anything in my life - and I mean anything. I am as determined as they come. That counts for something.

KR
  • #98,452
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:24am Jul 14, 2011 8:24am
Quoting huskyboy
8% per year on a saving account. Where is that, i'm coming
Sure come

Quoting supremeChaos
yeah, it's high. any country got a higher one?
hey Adi, i hope u are not referring to a type of savings account that's only available for well off people like u
No, really this is simple savings account, for simple people. It is that low for USD and EUR. In local currency I can get up to 12%.

here is a first bank I found (I have no relation to it, I use another one )
http://www.kaspibank.kz/index.php?ft=1&type=127

(I think you can use google to translate whole site, but maybe it's clear like this - 7.2% per year in USD or EUR).

I think that is a good way to deversify the risk too, first I thought to just buy our local bonds ( I do have some bonds that already pay me 30% per year but in local currency). However, here you really don't know which one is safier bank or bond? I think bank, so I am ready to sacrify % for safety.

  • #98,453
  • Edited 8:39am Jul 14, 2011 8:24am | Edited 8:39am
Quoting AvanishDemo
Hi Jon..
i did not take this PB..js watching it..

but i hav seen Mike talking abt such Pins..
i mean..he did said in one of his videos..that he waits for price breaking the PPZ n then would watch it acting as support confirmed with PA..even at swing highs..n dont really look for space..at such times..something like that..
here we have 1.42 RN..
maybe the PB is small..
watevr im glad that i did not take this...even if it works out..
Hey AV

This is not a setup I would class into breakout and retests. I need a concrete breakout pattern. Like a channel, or a flag, or a wedge to take a breakout and retest. The above would be a retest of a PPZ. Not wrong to do but not the same thing for me, they can be much trickier especially small bars in traffic. Where traffic doesn't come into play is as you said but it needs to be off a breakout pattern


Edit I should say that sitting here putting up live trades(which i have done many times, many more in the PF where I feel people are more responsible since they know how we are) is very tough to do. Not because I can't but because people follow you into trades blind. This is not my goal here. I don't care what people think about me. I am here to help, but I get very fearful of people following me into a trade. I can handle losing my own money, not others.

Best
Mike
  • #98,454
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:27am Jul 14, 2011 8:27am
Quoting Knight Rider
Okay, I will stick around for the time being. I want to believe. I really do.

Incidentally, Mike has gained my respect in a number of comments he has made recently - including his thoughts on stop losses. I like his thinking and his clarity of thought. He is quite a likeable chap really. I do exactly the same with my stop losses (hard lessons learnt in the past). I try to cut losses as short as possible, which is why; when I do picky trades, they are all "runners".

If somebody can call ten A+ trades (I don't care how long this takes) in a...
I don't think anyone will ever call 10 trades for you I will not even if I was 200% win rate trader. But if you look in Mike's attachements and for the Gold trade (short of beob) open that post go few post back and you will see it was all done in real time, way before trade actually triggered. It was nice. I hope I don't confuse things, yes Gold that was.
  • #98,455
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:29am Jul 14, 2011 8:29am
Quoting supremeChaos
caution wont help u more than experience can.
Quoting supremeChaos
i think a better way is to grow your account with increasing experience-profitability-consistency, then increase position size (&/or %risk) accordingly.
IMHO, increasing account size thru external source (external funds, u mean?) is inferior but may help once u are consistent.
This is all very true. I think it is a catch-22 situation for most, but the safest way to progress is as you described above, for sure.

Quoting supremeChaos
hold on to the winners, u mean?
try trading with multiple entries, then multiple exits.
Yes, holding on to the winners. I've been too zealous with my stop movements in the past (through fear of turning a small winner into a loser), and ending up with a lot of small winners and BEs. But I'm well on my way to getting on top of this now (also with the use of multiple exits, as you suggest)..

Thanks,
SG
  • #98,456
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:31am Jul 14, 2011 8:31am
Quoting Adilius07
I don't think anyone will ever call 10 trades for you I will not even if I was 200% win rate trader. But if you look in Mike's attachements and for the Gold trade (short of beob) open that post go few post back and you will see it was all done in real time, way before trade actually triggered. It was nice. I hope I don't confuse things, yes Gold that was.
It wouldn't be for me, I can assure you!

It would just be refreshing to see some of these trades in real time, don't you think?

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.....
  • #98,457
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:31am Jul 14, 2011 8:31am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey AV

This is not a setup I would class into breakout and retests. I need a concrete breakout pattern. Like a channel, or a flag, or a wedge to take a breakout and retest. The above would be a retest of a PPZ. Not wrong to do but not the same thing for me, they can be much trickier especially small bars in traffic. Where traffic doesn't come into play is as you said but it needs to be off a breakout pattern

Best
Mike
Hey Mike...
yes this clears now..thanks man!!
i will watch the video once again..
  • #98,458
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:33am Jul 14, 2011 8:33am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
Hi Mike, i was tempted to take this also but i was wondering what made you take the second bar and not the first???
cheers

jon

Two major things Jon

Firstly it didn't touch the BRN, so there was a lack of confluence

Secondly and more important all the other xxx/jpy pairs were moving in extreme tandem and none other had good bullish type bars. If you look on bar 2, it was across the board strong bullish movements with other good bullish bars

First one can be tempting but there's not enough there. 5 years ago I would have taken the first one

Best
Mike
  • #98,459
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:35am Jul 14, 2011 8:35am
Quoting Adilius07
I don't think anyone will ever call 10 trades for you I will not even if I was 200% win rate trader. But if you look in Mike's attachements and for the Gold trade (short of beob) open that post go few post back and you will see it was all done in real time, way before trade actually triggered. It was nice. I hope I don't confuse things, yes Gold that was.
gold was a nice one, but hey I just called that usd/jpy we were talking about! Never saw you post back on that one. I only posted that for you bud!



Just messing of course
Mike
  • #98,460
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:40am Jul 14, 2011 8:40am
Quoting Sgrb1
Just over 30 (which includes gap trades), I've only started keeping records within the last 6 - 9 months
Hey Man you put a huge smile on my face this morning!

Thank you
Mike
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