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Make Money Everyday - A Guide to Short-Term Trading

  • #601
  • Jun 26, 2011 10:23pm Jun 26, 2011 10:23pm
Asia was playing nice today.

I'm still undecided about this moving stop to BE thing. Sometimes price needs some breathing room and moving stops I seem to be choking that room.
But in saying that, being +8-10 or more and then ending up -6 is quite annoying.

What does everyone else think?
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  • #602
  • Edited 6:49am Jul 4, 2011 5:59am | Edited 6:49am
I was at the charts tonight from 06:55 on the charts.
Had a buy limit at 1.4525 after the start of that move up at the end of Asia, but didn't pick me up. Could have put a buy stop order at the mid line and taken that to the 1.4550.

First trade shouldn't have taken as LH hinting pullback coming.
Second got stopped out by a pip or two, should have put a buy stop order at 1.4525 to pick me up on the way through but had a wee moment of fear. Still learning!
Got in on the third trade on the pullback, only took to the mid line as PA suggested to me that's all it had.

Any thoughts that I've missed?
*Looking at this closer should I have been thinking short on these trades?
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  • #603
  • Jul 7, 2011 11:22am Jul 7, 2011 11:22am
Sorry my friends for my lack of response lately. Took a much needed break, partly out of necessity, partly out of I just had a lot going on. Getting back at it now. Make it a great day!

Mongolian
  • #604
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:09am Jul 11, 2011 7:09am
In a word - beautiful (as long as you were a seller!)

Mongolian
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  • #605
  • Jul 11, 2011 8:02am Jul 11, 2011 8:02am
Quoting mongolian
In a word - beautiful (as long as you were a seller!)

Mongolian
Welcome back mate.

Can I ask about the pullback between arrow 5 and 6. Any reason why you didn't have an order on the first pullback to .25 which would have stopped you?

Still got a few kinks to iron out before I'm getting the full potential of this method, but gotta say thank you. It's so nice to be profitable, and some nights with such ease
Really digging the Napoleon Hill book too, that guy was ridiculously ahead of his time.
  • #606
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:53pm Jul 11, 2011 7:53pm
Quoting nhen
Welcome back mate.

Can I ask about the pullback between arrow 5 and 6. Any reason why you didn't have an order on the first pullback to .25 which would have stopped you?

Still got a few kinks to iron out before I'm getting the full potential of this method, but gotta say thank you. It's so nice to be profitable, and some nights with such ease
Really digging the Napoleon Hill book too, that guy was ridiculously ahead of his time.
Was in a hurry to try and get that post up and just missed it. Glad you are liking Napolean Hill - it's a great book - no matter how many times I read it.

M
  • #607
  • Jul 12, 2011 3:31am Jul 12, 2011 3:31am
Keen to see how everyone's trading tonight, this volatility is a bit much for me! Got a few trades but wasn't quick enough for a few others.
  • #608
  • Jul 13, 2011 5:25am Jul 13, 2011 5:25am
Guess I'm just talking to you M, everyone seems to be on holidays at the moment!

Tonight was a good lesson for me in not thinking in terms of too high or too low. Pretty sure you posted about that awhile back mate.
I was looking for a break of the Asia high or low as price had been playing in a range that was shrinking as we moved towards London.
It moved above the high as London opened but because of the last few days short action, I kept talking myself out of going long, thinking oh it has to be at the top now.
So I was hopping out of trades early and missing others along the way.
Still slightly profitable night, but nothing like it could have been. Good lesson though

Also I asked Twee about getting this into the systems section so it could benefit more people, but no reply.. booger.
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  • #609
  • Jul 13, 2011 8:04am Jul 13, 2011 8:04am
Quoting nhen
Guess I'm just talking to you M, everyone seems to be on holidays at the moment!

Tonight was a good lesson for me in not thinking in terms of too high or too low. Pretty sure you posted about that awhile back mate.
I was looking for a break of the Asia high or low as price had been playing in a range that was shrinking as we moved towards London.
It moved above the high as London opened but because of the last few days short action, I kept talking myself out of going long, thinking oh it has to be at the top now.
So I was hopping out of...
You pretty much nailed it right there. When you hold on to your opinion that PA can't/shouldn't/won't go any higher or lower, it most certainly will and will either cost you money or you will just be annoyed because you didn't partake. Remember - we are paid to be disciplined. Take our setups as we see them. Period. Now unless we have a website or run articles where we are paid to predict PA's direction - we shouldn't care. We just trade it.

Mongolian
  • #610
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:50pm Jul 13, 2011 11:50pm
Quoting mongolian
You pretty much nailed it right there. When you hold on to your opinion that PA can't/shouldn't/won't go any higher or lower, it most certainly will and will either cost you money or you will just be annoyed because you didn't partake. Remember - we are paid to be disciplined. Take our setups as we see them. Period. Now unless we have a website or run articles where we are paid to predict PA's direction - we shouldn't care. We just trade it.

Mongolian
Wise words! The more I see that it doesn't matter if I get stopped on turns, or deeper retracements, because I can make it back + if I stay diligent and alert, the more I am able to trust what I see. That's my biggest issue at the moment, trusting that what I'm seeing is actually what I think I'm seeing.
Guess that just takes time and experience.

This is from 'Trading In The Zone', thought it applied:

'FUNDAMENTAL TRUTHS

1.Anything can Happen
2.You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money
3.There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge
4.An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
5.Every moment in the market is unique.

CONSISTENCY = Result of carefree, objective state of mind
Makes ourselves available to perceive and act upon what market is offering us in any given “NOW MOMENT.”

To remove sense of threat = have to accept RISK completely

If ACCEPT ANYTHING is POSSIBLE – mind won’t shut down if things go awry.

TRAIN MIND TO THINK IN PROBABILITIES

Market distilled to its basic = is a PATTERN RECOGNITION GAME

Three Stages of Development

1.Mechanical stage 2. Subjective stage 3. Intuitive stage

MECHANICAL STAGE

1.build self trust necessary in an unlimited environment
2.learn to flawlessly execute a trading system
3.train your mind to think in probabilities (the five fundamental truths)
4.create a strong, unshakeable belief in your consistency as a trader

“I AM A CONSISTENTLY SUCCESSFUL TRADER”

Mistakes can’t exist in a negatively charged context. Have to be able to overcome mistakes and move on quickly so that brain doesn’t get programmed with negativity.

SEVEN PRINCIPLES OF CONSISTENCY

1.I objectively identify the edges
2.I predefine the risk of every trade
3.I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade
4.I act on my edge without reservation or hesitation
5.I pay myself as the market makes money available to me
6.I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors
7.I understand the necessity of these principles of consistent success, and, therefore I never violate them'
  • #611
  • Jul 14, 2011 2:48am Jul 14, 2011 2:48am
I normally sit at my charts at 4pm my time, which is 3pm in Asia. Sometimes I can catch a trade before London opens, or I can use the time to plan the start of the night.
Got a somewhat lucky little trade right as I opened my charts, then promptly had my arse handed to me.

Got caught in the turn, then got caught as it retraced and started consolidating. Last red arrow, I shouldn't have put the trade on. But what about the rest?

M how would you have traded this?

Time to sit on my hands and wait for a high probability play once/if price gets moving.
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  • #612
  • Jul 14, 2011 3:28am Jul 14, 2011 3:28am
Quoting nhen
I normally sit at my charts at 4pm my time, which is 3pm in Asia. Sometimes I can catch a trade before London opens, or I can use the time to plan the start of the night.
Got a somewhat lucky little trade right as I opened my charts, then promptly had my arse handed to me.

Got caught in the turn, then got caught as it retraced and started consolidating. Last red arrow, I shouldn't have put the trade on. But what about the rest?

M how would you have traded this?

Time to sit on my hands and wait for a high probability play once/if price...
OK - I've attached a chart with some thoughts. Listen, Don't kick yourself around for either taking a loss OR for sitting and watching and not trading. Alright - that is done, it's gone, there is no changing what was done. While we can't change what happened, we can strive to improve.

Use the smallest lot you can - and commit to taking each setup you see for a week and then look at the math. Over the course of a week - you'll see - taking an occasional loss is just part of what we do, and they will be increasingly easier to take.

I am convinced that the one key that any trader has to master is how to take a loss. Can they take it, take it quickly and move on and keep trading or does it completely F-up their day and their ability to keep trading that day. Do they develop excuses, or do they develop themselves and their wallet? It's like the saying in sales - Every sales call a sale is made - Either the salesman sold the prospect on why they should buy or the Prospect sold the salesman on why they shouldn't. Have we sold our 'heart' on why we should keep trading, OR has our 'heart' sold us on why we should stop and watch.

I used to work with a guy who was a complete unabashed optimist. Didn't matter how shitty things were going - if you asked him how he was doing - he always replied - 'The streets are paved with gold my friend'.

I hope that this helps.

Mongolian
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  • #613
  • Edited 6:39am Jul 14, 2011 4:37am | Edited 6:39am
Quoting mongolian
...I hope that this helps.

Mongolian
Great advice as usual mate, really appreciate it.

I am getting better with taking losses, but when they stack up I still get shaken.

Ok few questions with the chart, what I'm still trying to get my head around is when I should be changing my bias. And how to do that in a sensible way and not get whipped.
Actually now after my last two trades you could say I am completely confused..

Let me post chart.

So the ranging section I could have got two 12 pip moves out of that. Instead got almost nothing.
That's ok but what about the trade at 1.4250 and the mid level below. We are slightly trending up, what am I missing? ...apart from the 2-3 excellent shorts I missed after I'd had enough and left the screen.

Trading this way I should be expecting to get stopped once or twice a night right? But six times tonight.. I'm missing something
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  • #614
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:57am Jul 14, 2011 8:57am
Quoting nhen
Great advice as usual mate, really appreciate it.

I am getting better with taking losses, but when they stack up I still get shaken.

Ok few questions with the chart, what I'm still trying to get my head around is when I should be changing my bias. And how to do that in a sensible way and not get whipped.
Actually now after my last two trades you could say I am completely confused..

Let me post chart.

So the ranging section I could have got two 12 pip moves out of that. Instead got almost nothing.
That's ok but what about the trade...
See the notes on your chart. 6 times is rough agreed. We'll get through it. Remember, our basic premise is that PA moves between the quarters. I assume that PA is going to be in a 'range' between the current 2 levels until it moves to the next. once it does, then we play between those levels.

Now I'll be honest, this is also why I use tick data in my charts instead of time. I can use a data set that essentially is less than a minute. Gives me little extra clues I believe that are blended into the timechart. It can be done on whichever time frame a trader chooses, I just like the tick charts better.

Mongolian
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  • #615
  • Jul 14, 2011 9:09pm Jul 14, 2011 9:09pm
Quoting mongolian
See the notes on your chart... Mongolian
You're a good man. Ok I wasn't thinking that way concerning the levels, I was attempting to read PA to determine the short term trend. Which was doing my head in last night.
So once/if it breaks the quarters you wait for it to bounce and find s/r on the new level before trading between it and the mid above/below?
My thinking has been, 'Oh it's broken and made a new high/low so I'm looking to get in on the pullback'. I was assuming it was trending, oops.

I'm going to see if I can get the tick charts happening on MT4, I think someone posted awhile back regarding setting it up.
You use a 10 bar tick yeah?
  • #616
  • Jul 17, 2011 11:15pm Jul 17, 2011 11:15pm
Quoting nhen
You're a good man. Ok I wasn't thinking that way concerning the levels, I was attempting to read PA to determine the short term trend. Which was doing my head in last night.
So once/if it breaks the quarters you wait for it to bounce and find s/r on the new level before trading between it and the mid above/below?
My thinking has been, 'Oh it's broken and made a new high/low so I'm looking to get in on the pullback'. I was assuming it was trending, oops.

I'm going to see if I can get the tick charts happening on MT4, I think someone posted awhile...
The hard answer is you are correct re: trending. Somewhere there is a balance to be had. PA can trend, and it can bounce along. Finding our spot is a constant battle. What happens more often than not, if you zoom out and take a look at a broader picture, you'll see that PA bounces along while it's trending. So while the past week or so, PA on the EUR/USD has been short, it hasn't necessarily gone straight now, but it bounces back and forth between levels on it's way down. I've sat on this all weekend, trying to formulate a more definite answer as to how do you tackle this and unfortunately the best answer I have is that it takes time in front of the charts. Time and trades, over and over. At some point, you just reach a comfort level that you allows you to not be surprised by what PA is doing and you are able to just trade.

I do use a 10 tick bar. I have a 30 tick bar and a 3 tick bar that I run in the background also. Find what you are comfortable with and own it. Remember, opinions are like a$$holes. Everyone has them. Don't worry about whether or not someone else can or can't trade a certain time frame. Whatever you can trade profitably... then run with it.

Mongolian.
  • #617
  • Jul 18, 2011 12:50am Jul 18, 2011 12:50am
Quoting mongolian
The hard answer is you are correct re: trending. Somewhere there is a balance to be had. PA can trend, and it can bounce along. Finding our spot is a constant battle. What happens more often than not, if you zoom out and take a look at a broader picture, you'll see that PA bounces along while it's trending. So while the past week or so, PA on the EUR/USD has been short, it hasn't necessarily gone straight now, but it bounces back and forth between levels on it's way down. I've sat on this all weekend, trying to formulate a more definite answer...
Appreciate that thanks mate. I earn a living as a musician and I think there is a clear parallel with what you're saying and mastering music.
Just as with music it takes many hours to learn the technique, and then when that technique is part of your body you are free to be at flow with the instrument.

So I will plough on, I've gone back to the start of the thread to go over all of the charts. I think there is a lot I can learn from them.
I will master this!
Cheers for providing direction when I find my head spinning

Nic
  • #618
  • Jul 19, 2011 3:40am Jul 19, 2011 3:40am
Alrighty so I went through a fair few charts on the forum last night, I'm going to keep revising them so the setups and movement of PA are painted on my brain.
Didn't quite help my total tonight but that's ok. I only had 2 hours tonight, and I think that was an issue considering I missed a few moves right after being stopped a few times.

Blue arrow are possible trades I saw but didn't take.
Yellow are orders not filled.

-So we were dropping into London Open. Stopped out on first trade. Would you have had a short order at Purple arrow? If so, after being stopped, when would you have changed your bias to long?

-2nd trade stopped at BE, price eventually got there.

-Didn't take next blue arrow as have been unsure about situations where price moves just above level and pulls back, after being stopped quite a few times taking them. Guess I just have to pull the trigger and if on wrong side, or too early adjust.

-3rd trade went up ten then came back to stop me at BE. Was too quick for me to manually exit at +10.

-As written on chart a 'W' formed at blue arrow. I would've been stopped if I'd taken it. Would you consider it void as price has made a new high right before it formed?

-Stopped on next trade.

-Stopped again at qtr looking to get it on bigger pullback long. At this point had to go feed my dog and got caught in the kitchen with flat mates, darn it.
Price eventually went through the 1.4150 and up the full qtr, but I would have been stopped one more time if placing buy stops at 1.4150

Keen to hear how you would have traded these and those that followed!
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  • #619
  • Jul 19, 2011 9:03am Jul 19, 2011 9:03am
Quoting nhen
Alrighty so I went through a fair few charts on the forum last night, I'm going to keep revising them so the setups and movement of PA are painted on my brain.
Didn't quite help my total tonight but that's ok. I only had 2 hours tonight, and I think that was an issue considering I missed a few moves right after being stopped a few times.

Blue arrow are possible trades I saw but didn't take.
Yellow are orders not filled.

-So we were dropping into London Open. Stopped out on first trade. Would you have had a short order at Purple arrow? If...
I think your thought process is pretty much right on. I know you used to run with a MA on your chart... what were the specs on that? Maybe we can use that for now to help.

Mongolian
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  • #620
  • Jul 19, 2011 9:48am Jul 19, 2011 9:48am
Quoting mongolian
I think your thought process is pretty much right on. I know you used to run with a MA on your chart... what were the specs on that? Maybe we can use that for now to help.

Mongolian
Thanks for your notes! I'll try what you've suggested when price is pissing about again

I had a simple MA set to 34 on close. What did you have in mind?
Got the tick charts happening too, I do prefer it over 1M with candles.

On the subject of old charts from this forum, this one has got to be one of my fav's - http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1304133807
I think I like it because on a night like that I would've been chopped to bits trying to adjust to the turns.
I'm looking at it multiple times a day in an effort imprint where you turn and how you go about it.
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