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VWVB Daily Chart Analysis

  • #301
  • Mar 21, 2006 4:22pm Mar 21, 2006 4:22pm
Quoting mrscooting
what's your gettin price...
116.31

I failed to take half profits at the tunnel because I was asleep. When I woke up my break-even stop was it at 116.35

Lesson learned: When holding a position overnight, best not sleep like Vegas
  • #302
  • Mar 21, 2006 4:43pm Mar 21, 2006 4:43pm
Quoting nutmg12
Its in that funky stage where it could continue up or reverse. I have a Sell Stop order in at 1.6830. I am watching it close. It has a long way to fall in order to get back to the Tunnel. I don't want to get in too early.

How are you playing it?
Still waiting, but i just want some opinion, I think it's too soon. Maybe tomorrow some good sign.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #303
  • Mar 21, 2006 5:56pm Mar 21, 2006 5:56pm
Quoting eastmaels
For this I have a quick answer: vegas gave a link in stockcharts.com about candlesticks reversals. you may want to check them out..
I've looked through that site as well as Nison's Candlestick book. I don't see a pattern jumping out. What pattern do you see? What would make you take trade A but not trade Z?

Thanks
  • #304
  • Mar 21, 2006 6:16pm Mar 21, 2006 6:16pm
Ive gone short at 1.6846 ,sl at 1.6897.
  • #305
  • Mar 21, 2006 6:29pm Mar 21, 2006 6:29pm
Quoting Sunseeker
Ive gone short at 1.6846 ,sl at 1.6897.
me to, good luck
Like we used to say in warcraft, GG
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #306
  • Mar 21, 2006 6:40pm Mar 21, 2006 6:40pm
Quoting Lindsay
It's a tough call re the above. (I got stopped out too ).

The problem I have is the size of the intial stoploss according to the Vegas rules. By the time we have a 50% retracement and place a stop at the most recent high or low the pips are really getting out there. I realise that the risk reward ratio with this model when it works is excellent but it is still difficult to swallow some of the initial stop positions especially if you were to get a few trades in a row going against you.

I wonder if they have nano lots out there somewhere
IBFX (I think you can only go live with mini accounts on MT4 right now) allows you to trade in .01 increments with MT4. SFBX may be the same way, although I'm not sure if they're live with MT4 yet.

Standard account
1 lot = $100,000 = $10/pip
.1 lots = $10,000 = $1/pip
.01 lots = $1,000 = $0.10/pip

Mini account
1 lot = $10,000 = $1pip
.1 lots = $1,000 = $0.10/pip
.01 lots = $100 = $0.01/pip
  • #307
  • Mar 21, 2006 7:43pm Mar 21, 2006 7:43pm
Hi everyone,

I am trying to figure out how to back test a strategy. So far I've downloaded all the data from MT4 history. I can do a few things on excel, so I thought I'd "program" some stuff (not really programming...just hacking through excel).

Well according to my statistical analysis of the Daily, my excel sheet shows that the EUR/USD has touched/passed through the fib levels the following number of times since July 6, 1998:

+377: 59
+233: 308
+144: 594
+089: 800
-089: 899
-144: 600
-233: 246
-377: 21

I did similar stuff with the weekly, 4hr, and 1hr tunnels. on the 4hr & weekly I've plotted on excel the dates/times when the faster MA/EMAs are above or below the slower MA/EMA and also when the slope is 0 and just turning (thus indicating momentum reversal).

Not sure if this is how you back test...my understanding of it is you start with a model/system and mock auto trade it through the past. Initially, I was attempting to generate statistics like the ones above and determine "if I had traded during those critical times, what is the average/max/min pip gain, drawdown, etc"... and the probabilities of those things occuring for each instance when momentum is turning, 1hr tunnel is breached by filter & price, price mov't is exhausted on the daily...etc. Thanks for reading, I know some of you are math types so I hope this exercise is of interest!
  • #308
  • Mar 21, 2006 7:53pm Mar 21, 2006 7:53pm
Quoting dof
EUR / AUD anybody?
What do you think?
what model do i use for this pair and what is the critical fib level...
  • #309
  • Mar 22, 2006 6:39am Mar 22, 2006 6:39am
Hi
I thought it was time I tried to join in this thread, I do struggle for time to keep up with what is going on in the forum but this thread has become one of my regular spots because you all seem to be trading in a similar way to what I am looking for. So far I have been studying alot and not really found anything to suite me, so I have worked out that my best way forward seems to be a combination of Vegas daily and Vegas 4 hour tunnel with a couple of bits of my own thrown in. I really like the Vegas 4 hour theory but due to my time restrictions could not follow this properly, so I looked again at the daily method and decided that I could use the dailys at there extremes with signals from candles, pin bars, DBHLC, DBLHC and Vegas 4 hour signals. I also decided that I could not look at too many pairs and thought that if I concentrated on say 5 pairs I would also start learning there individual behaviour so the 5 pairs I am going to follow are GBPUSD EURUSD EURJPY USDJPY AUDUSD. Now to see how I go.

Shan the table you put up every day is great, I have started my own one so I have a history of events, the only thing different on mine is that I have decided to put on the weekly direction as indicated by Vegas 4 hour.

Must go now, more work to do, happy and successful trading to you all.

Jon
  • #310
  • Mar 22, 2006 9:02am Mar 22, 2006 9:02am
03/22/2006 at 9.45am est..


Disclaimer :
Please note that I'm just giving my own observation about VWB trades and not an expert in this. This should not be considered as trade recommendations. Please trade with your own analysis.
Attached Image
  • #311
  • Mar 22, 2006 9:07am Mar 22, 2006 9:07am
Quoting xspowerx
116.31

I failed to take half profits at the tunnel because I was asleep. When I woke up my break-even stop was it at 116.35

Lesson learned: When holding a position overnight, best not sleep like Vegas
xspowerx,

you could put a sell limit for half the position at the tunnel once you move the trade to B/E. I do this all the time.

Shan
  • #312
  • Mar 22, 2006 10:30am Mar 22, 2006 10:30am
Quoting vishalshan
03/22/2006 at 9.45am est..


Disclaimer :
Please note that I'm just giving my own observation about VWB trades and not an expert in this. This should not be considered as trade recommendations. Please trade with your own analysis.


I'm trying to get my mind wrapped around this system still. I see you entered a long trade on the AUD/USD. I get that it broke the proper fib level. I don't see the corresponding price action to go long yet. I understand that it that judgment is always in the "eye of the beholder" to some degree, so I don't ask to be critical at all. Just trying learn. Can you walk me through your thinking on that trade? It would help me a great deal I'm confident. Thanks and thanks for the these table each day. They are a great aid.

Jonathan
  • #313
  • Mar 22, 2006 2:51pm Mar 22, 2006 2:51pm
Quoting vishalshan
xspowerx,

you could put a sell limit for half the position at the tunnel once you move the trade to B/E. I do this all the time.

Shan
Hey Shan.

Yea but it didn't reach the tunnel it was close enough to sell half though but I was asleep. Hmm I guess an option is to put a sell limit once 100% is achieved and the remaining stop will be in breakeven. Now were talking automated.
  • #314
  • Mar 22, 2006 3:03pm Mar 22, 2006 3:03pm
Quoting mrscooting
what model do i use for this pair and what is the critical fib level...




I think 233, im still learning this ,i looked at the daily chart for the passed 6 month ,this fib is hit the most.
  • #315
  • Mar 22, 2006 3:10pm Mar 22, 2006 3:10pm
Quoting Sunseeker
I think 233, im still learning this ,i looked at the daily chart for the passed 6 month ,this fib is hit the most.
i wasn't sure if Vegas had said something about this pair and i missed it...thanks for the info...
  • #316
  • Mar 22, 2006 3:40pm Mar 22, 2006 3:40pm
Hi Vishalshan,
just wanted to check that your entery on 20th on the usd/jpy was from the action on the hourly chart around three o'clock. The daily i thought was not clear. Am i right in thinking it was the hourly that did it for you?
This seems clearer than what was happening on the Aud/usd yesterday.
I wonder why we got no signal for entry.
That said I have my first profit from the Aud/usd and thats the first profit for me from VWB. Rock and roll.
Many Thanks for the table its very helpful.
Hari Om
Swami S
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #317
  • Mar 22, 2006 4:27pm Mar 22, 2006 4:27pm
Quoting jbamaj
I'm trying to get my mind wrapped around this system still. I see you entered a long trade on the AUD/USD. I get that it broke the proper fib level. I don't see the corresponding price action to go long yet. I understand that it that judgment is always in the "eye of the beholder" to some degree, so I don't ask to be critical at all. Just trying learn. Can you walk me through your thinking on that trade? It would help me a great deal I'm confident. Thanks and thanks for the these table each day. They are a great aid.

Jonathan
Jonathan,

I have a full time job and don't have the luxury of watching the screens all day during reversal trades. It's very tough for me to follow vegas 3 concepts as you need to be looking at the screen thru out the day and have to do day trading to get the best entry possible.

I use discretion considering price action (as explained by Jim), Vegas 4hr signals, fib retracements, long term resistance and support to decide my entries. I can't move the trade to B/E so fast as full time traders and I would allow my trades to float around for some time. Doing part time, I have to take more risk than vegas. Since he is doing day trading he gets the best entries and quick exits if trade is not coming off good.

Discretion is very tough to explain the rules since it varies for every trade. I went long with aud/usd mainly because there a nice daily PIN bar forming yesterday and price was at take profit fib of 4hr vegas model and also near long term support trendline.

If I have chance to do full time trading, I would look forward to follow only vegas 3 concepts and pick the cream of VWB trades.

Hope this helps.

Shan
  • #318
  • Mar 22, 2006 4:33pm Mar 22, 2006 4:33pm
Quoting Swami S
Hi Vishalshan,
just wanted to check that your entery on 20th on the usd/jpy was from the action on the hourly chart around three o'clock. The daily i thought was not clear. Am i right in thinking it was the hourly that did it for you?
This seems clearer than what was happening on the Aud/usd yesterday.
I wonder why we got no signal for entry.
That said I have my first profit from the Aud/usd and thats the first profit for me from VWB. Rock and roll.
Many Thanks for the table its very helpful.
Hari Om
Swami S
Yes Swami, hourly price action was the reason for my entry on 20th..also price was bouncing off a strong long term support trendline..

Shan
  • #319
  • Mar 22, 2006 6:32pm Mar 22, 2006 6:32pm
Quoting vishalshan
03/22/2006 at 9.45am est..


Disclaimer :
Please note that I'm just giving my own observation about VWB trades and not an expert in this. This should not be considered as trade recommendations. Please trade with your own analysis.
HI,

you have usd/cad as risk model 1 in your table, I see it as risk model 2, therefore it hasnt touched the 2nd fib line yet, any reson for this?
CERTIFIED ORGANIC
  • #320
  • Mar 22, 2006 6:51pm Mar 22, 2006 6:51pm
Hi,
Anybody still long on this one seems to be creeping up but,really needed a wide stop to stay in on this on. Down nearlt 60 pips at one point .Then up 30 today but,I was out of town and missed it.Now back at break even.Not exaactly volitile in one direction sorta both at once.
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